Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Frank has some fantastic news for us data fiends:
"SOLD DATA IS HERE! And that includes seller subsidy! (which the tax records don't show)
And now in one sort you can sort and see ALL of the homes that have dropped the most since their previous purchase price.
Try it out. Search for Manassas Active.
And then sort by List$/Sold (drop down sort).
And there you can see the top 50 real time biggest droppers.
Let me know what you think!"
Frank
Owner FranklyMLS.com
54 comments:
4.75 percent mortgages (new and refinance) are available now. NCMC and USAA, among (I'm sure) many others now offer these rates, though they're charging about 1.5 points for that rate. You can get 4.875 percent refinances at less than a point, however.
Anybody have an opinion on how likely rates are to go even lower?
Frank,
That's stunning.
I think you added this just as a ploy to get us buyers more excited about the "discounts". (Okay, I know that's not true)
Actually, going to the end of the listing to see which buyers should have bargaining room, is in some ways more useful. (should, so long as they're not Heloc'd out of their homes, which based on the foreclosures I've seen, is often the case)
For 22315 active, it doesn't take very deep in the stack to see how far back in time the seller's think prices have gone. The current seller's in Kingstowne are on crack-rock, because their listings are well above 04 prices. That, makes me angry. Hello, the bubble had driven prices unsustainable by early 03! You freakin twits. What's funny is the truly underwater people are pricing well below the 03 and 04 buyers. So, the comps will drag them down eventually, but these are the sellers who think they're not distressed, but will soon become so. Guess they haven't gotten the memo, that us buyers don't care how much you owe on your mortgage note, we only care whether we pay a good price for our new home. And unless you price accordingly, we're not getting you out of your debt.
Cara,
That's a good way to use that data, maybe we'll be able to see a trend if we keep tracking the breakeven year.
This listing, http://www.franklymls.com/AR6877619:
1507 MONROE ST S
ARLINGTON VA 22204
claims that there are 3 units with separate utility meters. The area is zoned for single family.
Any here familiar with such a situation? How to find out if there is a zoning waiver or grandfathered situation that would convey with such a property? etc.
Before anyone suggests contacting the county, I did, and received the excellent service and information that I've been taught to expect from government. Code enforcement referred me to Zoning who referred me to Assessments who then referred me back to Code Enforcement -- rinse, repeat.
Not one organization had an inkling if these units were 'legal'.
(Yeah, yeah -- I should push for competence from my gubmint, but I can't abide incompetence anymore. I'd rather deal with folks who show some intelligence and interest, which is why I'm asking here.)
anyone familiar with the Burke, VA housing (townhouse) market prices?
hardwood floors, clean, safe area, located near VRE...already looked on ziprealty....looking for advice from someone who knows the market...
Hey Buck...I work a lot in Burke. Here are some homes on FranklyMLS you might consider: Burke Townhouses on FranklyMLS
It's interesting in this search that all of the houses are selling for above their last sales price. You can tweak it by taking out the hardwood floors or the VRE.
Not all agents with listings close to the VRE will put them in the remarks so you'll get more houses if you take that out--and you'll see the people who are selling for less than they bought.
pretty impressive stuff frankly.
i like the frankly burke url. &a=jr (jeff royce)
www.mortgagefool.com (a broker) has 4 7/8% 30 year fixed 0 points. I used them 6 or 7 years ago without problem.
Hey GT,
Pretty cool heah?
I designed the site so agents could have their info on each page. The more agents using the site and finding new ways to unlock MLS data, the better.
Jeff came up with the LP=Lower (enter that into your search) idea where you can get alerts for homes that are way under tax assessment.
Frank- Owner FranklyMLS.com
Love to hear everyone elses ideas!
Frank, I know this information isn't in the MLS, but they do it somehow on redfin: Value estimates of the listing from zillow, cyberhomes, and eppraisal. Great work.
I just locked in 4.875 with 1.4 points. Amazing. My first GFE was quoted at 5.875, now this reduction is going to lower my monthly payments by $300.
This puts my mortgage payment $1000 over my current rent payment, which is very very manageable for me.
RJ: You're losing $1k a month?
Novawatcher,
No. I am a first time home buyer. As of right now, my mortgage payment will be about $1k over what I am paying for rent in my apartment.
I waiting during the run-up to buy, resisted all the "advice" I got to buy from friends, and saved up. I am putting a 10% down payment on my first home and just locked in 4.875%. I couldn't be happier.
I just locked into a refinance at 4.875% with ZERO points!
This financial crisis is great!
Ah, I thought you were refinancing, and the refinanced mortgage was $1k more than you were renting your place out. Mea Culpa.
No one of consequence, sorry, I tried to post this yesterday but couldn't.
Sorry you have been a bureaucratic ping-pong ball. I sometimes have better luck by going to the Arl. County home page, clicking the "contact us" email and sending in my question. It usually reaches the right person, though it takes a few days, and the response takes longer.
You can also search on the site for the Accessory Dwelling Report from Dec. 2007. Obviously I may be wrong about this, but I think the answer is that, unless the units you are looking at qualify under the new rules as an Accessory Dwelling, and I don't think that they do, from what I understand, there is no grace period or grandfathering. Arl. has been more conservative than many other communities in (not) allowing apartments in neighborhoods zoned as single-family. These apartments do exist, but they are illegal, as I understand it, and if you get caught they can force you to cease renting them.
Two things that imply that my understanding is correct:
a) the listing makes no claim that the rental units are legal
b) the house hasn't been sold for the price you would expect if it had 3 legal rental units and were in good shape
PS (sorry) NOOC,
you could ask the Realtor to provide you with a copy of any waiver document that would convey.
RJ,
That's an great rate, congrats! But $1k every month over what you were paying in rent makes you happy? Man I feel like a cheap ass bastard. Here's hoping that you're buying a place with much more space and many more comforts (garden, screened in porch, whatever pleases you) than you're currently renting. Me, I couldn't stand the living in way too small of a place anymore (especially after inheriting half my mother's furniture and china...) and am renting a reasonable 2/2. So, I'm demanding monthly costs equal to my rent when I buy. (even though I plan on getting at least 3 bedrooms, and a backyard, and maybe a walk-out basement, and preferably a screened in porch). There's not much out there that meets these ideals, yet, but there are a couple, so I'm pretty sure there will be more soon enough. I mean sure, we're currently socking away an extra $1500 towards the downpayment fund every month, but that's earmarked for daycare in the future not mortgage payments!
I am assuming RJ is getting way more bang for his additional bucks with his new place. Many people "under rent" in an effort to save up money for buying.
For example, when I bought 7 years ago, I ended up paying $2300 more a month than I did when I was renting. On its face that sounds like a lot. However if you saw the hovel type living conditions I was in while renting, compared to where I live now, it makes a lot more sense.
RJ, that is awesome!
Cara, I know that when we buy, our mortgage will be around $1k more than our rent payment, but that is because we rent well below our means (a 1/1). It has allowed us to save up a substantial down payment fund and pay off our student loans at the same time, so it has definitely been worth the "squeeze."
Cara,
Yes, I am happy about the additional $1000 a month (and that $1000 includes $400 a month for taxes, because it is buying us the following:
1) No more thin walls and rattling shelves from the neighbor's loud stereo.
2) No more towing of visitors cars from the parking lot.
3) Building equity
4) An additional 1200 sq. ft. of living space
5) Home inside the beltway, near 66 and 495. This was a major requirement for us since I work all around the district, NOVA and Maryland.
6) No more landlord
We have serious rental fatigue right now and after 11 years of renting our homes (and saving $$$), we are ready to move into our first home.
RJ,
Yikes! Those are particularly crappy conditions! The additional space probably does justify the additional price, it sounds about right.
I understand your rental fatigue, being 34 on Tuesday myself. Luckily I've avoided most crappy rental situations, (the worst we've had was a landlord who wouldn't admit that a heater that only functioned if you kept the place above 76 degrees was one that required fixing/replacing, luckily we didn't manage to freeze his pipes when we simply allowed it to stop every night). And we didn't have to pay the completely insane DC area rental prices until these last 3 years, so have actually been pretty happy as renters. Of course, I also grew up in a townhouse that my parents owned, where you could hear the neighbors loud and clear, (and which was across a 4 lane highway from a frieght-rail ine) so perhaps I'm a bit immune.
I was at the breaking point 3 years ago, when I just couldn't stand the thought of renting anymore, but the prices to buy were just incomprehensibly high, so we decided to go ahead and put enough money towards rent to get someplace nice enough that we wouldn't feel pressured to buy before the time was right for us.
It sounds however, that this is the perfect timing for you, so congrats! We still have another 4 months before we reach our target 20% down (plus 5% closing) on our target price point. So we'll be buying this summer.
So, if you've locked a rate, you must have found a particular place, no? Any wisdom/insights from your experience (now or after closing) would be greatly appreciated in this forum.
Wow, 34 and still renting!
Talk about a late bloomer!
I figured most people on this blog were in their 20's since they were always talking about how they couldent afford the prices and all.
Nice backhanded remark, Dougie.
Doug - seriously, why did you post that? Whats the point?
Doug is a classy guy.
Doug,
I'm 35, almost 36, and I've gone back to renting. Both my wife and I are professionals. All sorts of houses, condos, townhomes are rented out...and all sorts of people rent for all sorts of different reasons. Our rental happens to be valued at above $1 million and we're paying $3000/month.
There is nothing wrong with renting so don't denigrate others just because they are being fiscally responsible and prudent. As I see it, even though I'll be buying a home in the next 2 years, a house will be a liability for some time to come. Those without a house have flexibility and don't have to be concerned about owning a depreciating asset.
I love that everyone comes to my defense on this blog.
for me, Doug is right, actually. PhD's and subsequent postdocs require what I call an extended adolescence.
(no way I was buying when I had to move every 2-3 years!)
Cara: My wife is 37 and has never owned a house. Part of it was due to where she lived, part of it was due to a change career and moving across the country several times, and the rest was due to her spending 5 years getting her PhD. She's now a professional making good money, and we rent.
Me: I owned a house from age 24-37. I sold two years ago when we got married, and now we rent.
Having said that, I was able to own houses through a PhD and a PostDoc, but that's because I lived in cheaper areas of the country and there was no housing bubble at the time. In fact, most places I've lived, the mortgage (excluding taxes and insurance) for a substantially nicer place (3br SFH vs. 1br apartment, 4br SFH vs. 2 br apartment) was equivalent to rent on an apartment. That just goes to show you how out-of-whack things have gotten in this bubble.
So, to sum things up: we are two PhDs, we make very good money, and we rent. We don't plan to buy for 2 more years.
"Wow, 34 and still renting!
Talk about a late bloomer!
I figured most people on this blog were in their 20's since they were always talking about how they couldent afford the prices and all."
Keep that sort of thing up and you will become this blog's next lance...
BTW, I think if you traveled a bit you would find that much of the world has a completely different view of renting than you seem to. Where I am living (in Europe) less than half the population owns their home and it is perfectly normal for even those in the uppermost income brackets to rent.
According to this, renters on the average tend to be healthier and happier than house owners.
I think you're coming to the wrong conclusion there Doug. I don't think most people on this blog are worried about *affording* a house, we're just financially prudent and would rather wait than pay an excessive price for one. We're talking about realistic pricing here, not incredible bargains.
Sans bubble I would probably have bought in 2004-2005 when I was 28 (I'm 32 now). I didn't even really consider it because of the bubble prices.
Housing saga update:
We are getting an appraisal on our rental now. Our landlord's target price was at the top of our value range, so we figure it is worth a try. When we set up the appointment, the appraiser warned us repeatedly not to buy right now, because values are still dropping so dramatically here in Manassas. In fact, he said the bank will probably require another appraisal right before closing, because they will expect prices to have come down significantly during the interim. If we go forward, our hope is that our landlord will cover the next appraisal. (BTW, the quotes we got for an appraisal were $350, $450, and $500. Seems like a lot.)
"We're talking about realistic pricing here, not incredible bargains." --Jeff B
This perfectly captures our feeling about buying a house. We are not looking for the perfect, precise bottom, or to financially destroy someone for our own advantage. We are looking for sanity. We truly want this transaction, if it occurs, to be mutually beneficial.
That being said, I hope to tap into the collective wisdom here when the appraisal comes back. I am quite curious to see if it matches my own research conclusions. If it does, I will need help on how to hammer out a deal, because our landlord will need to lower expectations some more.
As an aside, Doug overlooks those of us with military obligations, too. Never fear--we are Ivy-educated, and bounced around in order for my husband to get his law degree and make our homes where the Marine Corps told us to. With his contract up in the spring, we are ready to settle down in a modest, cozy house so our seven little ones can finally have some peace and stability following years of sacrifice. No doubt, our house will continue to lose value for some time to come, but if we get a rate under 5%, that will make up for it somewhat.
But if we cannot agree on a fair market value with our landlord, perhaps he will let us continue to rent month to month, and that's not the worst thing in the world.
FWIW - I just got off the phone with my lender - 4.875 no points can be had right now. $360 a month less in mortgage payments is very tempting. Closing costs will be repaid in approx 8 months.
At the same time, I dont think this is the bottom of rates. Absent more govt meddling, I wouldnt be surprised that the notion of a "liquidity trap" gets priced in, and mortgage rates drop to 4% or below in the next few months. If so, I will be kicking myself for doing a refi now.
The problem of course is the "govt meddling" part. If Bernanke says the wrong thing, the rates pop again tomorrow and then I will be kicking myself for not locking in a 4.875%.
Any thoughts on my dilemma?
Crt,
Your dilemma is pretty common.
Paulson has said that the idea of bringing mortgages down to 4.5% was discussed, but it is no longer under consideration. So the rates may not fall much below 4.5% anytime soon.
The current drop in mortgage rates is due to aggressive Fed action to buy MBS. Otherwise, when the FED drops its rates, fears of longer-term inflation keep mortgage rates higher.
Paul Krugman has been talking about the idea of liquidity trap, but many other influential economists say that the Fed has enough tools to fight it and it will never let that happen.
So I think it is OK for you to take the chance and lock-in now.
Doug, do you have a mortgage on your house?
Tabitha, let us know if your appraisal provides values under both the sales comparison approach and the income approach (i.e., capitalization of rents from the property) and, if so, how they differ.
Contrarian/Ted K. I think im in the same camp as you - bird in hand and all.
Tabitha - $350 is the upper end of what I consider fair for a residential real estate appraisal. On my refi, I will pay $300, but my house is likely alot smaller than the one you will be looking at.
John Fountain. - Tabitha will likely only be getting the sales compaison method ("comps" in realtor speak). Cost, Income, discount for marketability, etc. are pretty sophisticated concepts not usually seen outside of commercial real estate.
You can get them done in residential, but it will cost you ($1,000 or more would be my guess). Plus once the loan underwriter get the appraisal, he would discard anything other than "comps" anyway. Mortgages now are so automated, no one knows how to fit a square peg into a round hole anymore.
i've commented on this bank owned Odyssey unit in Courthouse a few times before, but i just wanted to note that with yesterday's price cut is now within $5K of the banks purchase price from foreclosure. (and almost $300K drop from April). do you all think the bank could go below its purchase price and take loss twice??!! i always thought the price the bank paid at foreclosure would be the price floor, but maybe i was wrong? do banks really go below their 'costs'?
MM: Right now, you'd basically be at 2006 prices (give-or-take). I'd think you could at least get it down to $520k (80% of purchase, which was $650k in 2006). You might want to check out recent comps, as that might be even too high. For example, #1513 recently sold for 77% of the 2006 sale price ($555k vs. $720k). That place sold on 11/4.
Ace:
Thanks for the reply. That's my interpretation of the situation as well.
If the extra two units are illegal, the real estate professional who posted this is rather close to the line, no?
NOOC, I'm no lawyer so I have no business trying to answer! I hope you do find someone qualified to answer, soon.
And on another topic, if age 34 is "old", some of the rest of us are in sorry shape...
CRT,
If you can recoup costs within eight months, I would refinance ASAP. The lower payment also makes it easier to rent out your place for positive cash flow, if the opportunity should arise.
Zmonet,
Agreed. Nothing wrong with renting. For me, I'd probably rent if my wife let me. Get a 40% bigger place for the same $. Heck why not.
MM
No way man. I can show you a TON of houses where the bank sold for far less than the courthouse repurchase price. They are NOT related. The bank looks to get 90% of "current market value" and are pretty smart about ignoring the purchase price. Run a FranklyCRA and you can see the last 5 homes this bank sold and how many were below the purchase price.
Also DO NOT RELY ON PURCHASE PRICE ON TAX DATA for bank homes. They do NOT record the 2nd trusts. SO the bank might "buy" it for $500k, but then they have to pay $100k to the other lienholders.
Tom
I hate points. Hate hate hate them. Pay the higher rate, with no points and then you are free to refi if they rates drop again. And yes they can drop (but they can also rocket up), even if the fed is done dropping the short term rates.
Cara,
5% closing costs? Nah. The seller cares about their NET right? So either $400k or $415k with $15k back. They don't care. But the advantages to you include:
- Better rate (if it helps you get under 20%)
- Less money to the table (similar to note above)
- Higher valuations for you and your neighbors for those that don't use FranklyMLS (which shows seller subsidy) and instead use Zillow and tax assessment data .
Preventive Disclaimer- Realtor pockets a couple hundred more. (sure, but that would be a stupid reason to do it)
Downside:
- $50 in taxes/year.
(never fight your tax assessments.
- Some say it overvalues your neighborhood, making a future crash worse.
Shamrock
Do you like that home valuation stuff? Oh I hate that data. It is worthless. I could add it but it just makes me feel ikky inside. Maybe a "Frankly Price Predictor" that puts a "if it closed today" estimated price based on days on the market. (average home that sells in 5 days sells for 1% below list) Stuff like that.
all
Do you all care about neighborhood information? I'm going to add a Wiki feature that will have agents add blogs on specific neighborhoods for each listing. Yeah or Nah?
Frank: Neighborhood info would be cool. And I agree that the Zillow and other estimates are garbage.
Frank,
The more info. the merrier -- I'm sure the agents will talk about the physical amenities of the neighborhoods and surrounding areas.
Frank...you already know that I'd love to have neighborhood oriented blog posts tied to listings in FranklyMLS, just to get more exposure for my neighborhood profiles. I would also like to have non-agents be able to write about their own neighborhoods.
An agent can give sales info, community info, and take pictures. But there is nothing quite like hearing from somebody who lives in a neighborhood. They can tell about things like how great the local pool and swim team are, or how cool the neighborhood 4th of July party is...the things that matter so much when you're actually living there.
I'd encourage readers here to write about their own neighborhoods so that people can know what they're getting in to before they move in. If anybody wants to team up on a post (I'll do the stats/basic facts, you write about your experience living in the neighborhood) let me know, or just write one on your own. There is really very little information out there on most neighborhoods that isn't canned and lame. This could change that, and a lot of people could benefit.
frank,
Some sellers will, and some won't have the "room" to subsidize the sale. If the sale only covers their note, or rather doesn't quite cover it and they have to bring money to the table to finish the mortgage note and pay the brokers, they won't be able to also bring closing costs. The 2003, 2004 vintage looks as if it's asking exactly 6% more than they paid, so at a guess, they don't have money to bring to the table, and you'd have to overpay to get the subsidy. Additionally it may be difficult in this market to get the assessment for the new mortgage to line up with an even slightly inflated price. Any insights on that recently? Difficulties with banks at closing, or lack thereof?
crt, all,
The banks are dropping interest rates of their own accord in their own best interests. If you own a house right now, your interests and the banks interests align. This is just my thinking, but I'll call it "motivation analysis" for fun. The banks need to keep the 2003 and 2004 vintages performing as well as possible, and would like 2009 to also not go completely sour, while at the same time keeping house prices (their collateral) as high as possible. Low rates accomplish all of this. Refinance those who weren't so risky as to already have failed. For this to be effective rates have to go substantially below 2003/2004 lows!!! I'm looking for 3.5% in the near future. This will get the 2003-2004 houses into the 2009 vintage in an acceptable manner. And the low rates will lock people into any house they buy now for a long time, as monthly payments won't be this cheap for a long time to come.
Credit cards have no collateral. Those rates are going up to balance the losses. While at some rate, this becomes a losing proposition as well, banks want to make the rate as high as sustainable to keep the most profit. In homes, they surpassed that point long ago because prices doubled effectively doubling the interest earnings but with more money risked. Credit cards haven't reached that breaking point of losing money on higher interest yet.
None of this has anything to do with the Fed anymore. The banks are trying to click their heels and use rates to make it all better. And the funny part is that it was always in their power to do so.
Calculated Risk isn't worried about the low rates actually prematurely halting the price declines, so I've decided not to worry about that either. Let the banks try, they'll prevent foreclosures in the process. That's a good thing.
In the end, it doesn't matter how much "room" the seller has but rather, what buyers are willing to pay and how badly the seller has to sell. Just as a buyer generally isn't going to pay more for a house than other buyers will, simply because a seller really needs the money, a seller generally isn't going to sell at a lower price than other buyers are willing to pay, even if s/he can well "afford" to. It seems obvious, but there are a lot of sellers and buyers out there that don't seem to understand this, hence sales are low in some areas.
You can't really tell what the seller's "room" is, in any event. S/he may have HELOC'd out the wazoo, or may have made more $$$ worth of improvements that s/he paid for the house originally. And/or the seller may have other assets.
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