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The Post had a bit about the condo market this weekend. A little excerpt:
"The average sales price of new condos fell 3.6 percent in the Washington area during the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago, according to a study by McWilliams Ballard, a condo marketing company, and Delta Associates, a research firm. The impact on existing condos has been even more dramatic: Sales prices fell 8.1 percent during the third quarter. At the current pace, it would take 8.2 years to sell the finished and almost-completed new-construction condominiums on the market, according to the study".Delta Associates has more 3rd Quarter 2008 information available here (pdf file).On pp. 20 regarding condo sales:
"Net sales pace of 1,500 to 2,000 units per year of late will increase next year as the number of projects due to deliver diminishes to near zero, with few contract cancellations left to offset gross sales. With mortgage interest rates remaining low and job growth rates remaining on course, we expect a net sales pace of 2,500 to 3,500 units per annum over the next two years. With this, select jurisdictions will find equilibrium arriving quickly – perhaps as early as late 2009 or into 2010."
13 comments:
IHB there is no move-up market
In his latest post irvine renter explains how the losses at the low end precipitate the losses at the high end. It doesn't have the exact numerical analysis I wanted, but forcefully outlines the idea.
I drove through Manassas last Wednesday night (and yesterday). Recognizing the inherent bias of driving down 29 will only show me the foolish things they built right along 29, wow they built a lot of oversized townhouses right along the highway. If this is in anyway a representative sample, I can see why there's so much pain there now. Arlington got new fake craftsman homes in place of 1950's tract homes, Manassas got massive townhomes and mcmansions in the place of beautiful woods and farmland. No matter what happens to the market, this building bubble will have a long term impact. So, are things better further from the main drag??
I must admit I have no enthusiasm for following the housing story today. Tanta's gone. I've spent the day crying my eyes out for someone I never met.
At least she got a well-deserved acknowledgment from the New York Times: Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47
What terribly sad news, Sarah. She will be missed.
Yes, Sarah. I don't know how I'm going to manage without her.
I'm so glad she was noted in so many places.
Get your bashing instruments ready! Here is another new listing that is going to sit, sit, sit:
1019 Edgewood
No photos, no indication as to why this house is worth almost $280000 more than Arlington says it's worth, and just for good measure, a claim that it is a "legal" 2 family even though the Arl. records show that it is zoned R-5, which is not 2 family, to my knowledge.
Arl. assessment
Is it too early to ask people to make predictions about November sales?
Oh, if that house on Edgewood was livable at that size 900K would not be a bad price, but it is basically falling down. If it actually has 5 bedrooms, I don't think a house with 5BRs in LP/AH has gone for less than a million in quite some time, but I assume some of the bedrooms are in the basement. Plus with a relatively small lot, not a great opportunity for a tear down (which would give it a base of 800K or so on that part of LP).
Urban Trekker has a really good analysis about DC housing market, great stats. Eight months of condo inventory in DC, she reports.
http://www.metrodcliving.com/urbantrekker/2008/12/october-home-sa.html
ace, the same guy who is trying to sell 1019 N. Edgewood is also trying to sell 1049 N. Daniel for the somewhat more reasonable price of $729,000.
http://franklymls.com/AR6932848
He owns a few properties in the neighborhood and periodically tries to sell them at "shoot for the moon" asking prices. He may actually sell the Daniel St. property for that price, but I'd be surprised if someone coughed up the $932,000 asking price for the shack on Edgewood St. The value of that property is the land, and that price is way too high for a 6,000 square foot lot.
Thanks, John F. I don't know why a seller would waste his time like that, or why a Realtor would work with him or spend money and time marketing his listings.
There is a very funny line (unintentionally) in today's Washington Post about the real estate slump:
"The real estate slump was almost unimaginable three years ago."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/01/AR2008120103101_pf.html
Yep, nobody saw this coming at all. There were no bubble bloggers, no Dean Bakers, no Robert Shillers, nothing. Nobody warning about abnormally high inflation-adjusted house prices, nobody warning about seriuously out of whack price to income or price to rent ratios. Nobody warning about 40% of sales being made to investors, etc. Nothing.
Seeing this in advance was completely impossible. After all, Alan Greenspan swears that it is impossible to see a bubble until after it has popped.
What nonsense (and bullshit)!!!
...nobody refusing to buy at inflated levels and instead continuing to rent for 5 years waiting for prices to turn around.
Which I'd bet describes a lot of us on these boards. I'm ready to buy, come on market!
in regards to Ace's question about 'legal' second unit in the listing for 1019 Edgewood listing that is zoned R-5.
This listing, http://www.franklymls.com/AR6877619:
1507 MONROE ST S
ARLINGTON VA 22204
claims that there are 3 units, but this area is also zoned for single family.
Before anyone suggests contacting the county, I did, and received the excellent service and information that I've been taught to expect from government. Code enforcement referred me to Zoning who referred me to Assessments who then referred me back to Code Enforcement.
Not one organization had an inkling if these units were 'legal'.
Any here familiar with these situations? How to find out if there is a zoning waiver or grandfathered situation that would convey with such a property? etc.
(Yeah, yeah -- I should push for competence from my gubmint, but I can't abide incompetence anymore. I'd rather deal with folks who show some intelligence and interest, which is why I'm asking here.)
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