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Monday, October 27, 2008
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18 comments:
The closest thing to good real estate reporting in WaPo in a while, they've got some zip code based numbers to show if you follow the link in the article local markets in DC area
link to their graphic of selected zip codes
In other brightsides the mortgage interest rates have gone down again.
On the other hand, evidence appears to be growing for a global recession as opposed to a brief contained one...
Good find Cara. Thats probably the most in depth reporting on individual zip codes that WaPo has done.
It also makes a good marker re: areas that held up until the most recent crash in the stock market. I would love to see a follow up next year to see just how much the crash affects them.
yeah, it's not bad for WaPo. My one quibble with it is that they're calling stable anything that didn't drastically decline since Jan 2008. Given that prices "should" "normally" seasonally incline over that time frame, it's an interesting choice... The graphic also takes a bit of deciphering since the stats are Sep to Sep single month, and then the graph may be from January and may be using the 3-month running average, and the axis labels are subliminal and axis lines are non-existant...
It will indeed be very interesting to see if the credit crisis and impending (or current) recession start to impact those areas that were not intrinsically weak in terms of the real estate market itself.
The current financial crisis will hit the high end of the market harder than the low, but it wont be as bad as the foreclosures driving the low end depreciation.
I like:
(1) How the graph for Spring Valley/Tenleytown is trending upwards, but the percent change is listed as a negative (-16.5%).
(2) How the scales are not scaled to reflect percent change (log scale anyone?). So, Upper Marlboro looks like it's falling like a rock compared to McLean, whereas the percent change isn't *that* different (-17.4% vs. -13.5%).
Novawatcher,
yeah, that's what I meant about it being difficult to decipher. The percent changes are YOY, but I think the graph is only since January. That's the only way I can reconcile the numbers (or explain away the huge discrepancies)
It's very odd...
Hmm. Some pretty weird numbers there. It says Falls Church had a median price of $250,000 in Sept. 2007 and that jumped to $415,000 in 2008. The MRIS gives the median prices for this zip code as $520K in Sept. 2007 and $490K in Sept. 2008. For Gaithersburg (20878) the article claims a decline of 27% (vs. 32% according to the MRIS) and calls that stable. Yet it cites the MRIS as one of its data sources...
MM,
But they added brushed stainless knobs to the cabinets, and the patio furniture conveys. That makes all the difference! Obviously.
The furniture also proves that, yes, you can have a baby in a 1 bedroom flat. You just have to move out soon.
Ah, the tasty orange-line koolaid.
The following is too WTF, blatant jerk listing to not post about.
I'm sorry this just pissed me off.
Here's the deal, FSBO little tiny PSO, on half an acre, asking for $900,000 supposedly because there might or might not be a redistricting of the area near Springfield Mall to allow this to be more densely developed. All I can say is GTH, GDTH, do not pass go, do not collect a million dollars, go directly to H E double hockey sticks. And take your freaking ego with you.
Redfin link
FSBO link
Fairfax Times Article they're using to support the argument that someone else should step in and speculate on this piece of land.
Looking for the bigger fool. Owners want to make a million dollars (oh, wait, it's a steal at 0.9 million), while someone else takes the risk that this plan goes through, and the carrying costs meanwhile of a 0.9 million dollar loan, which they couldn't possibly get based on the appraisal.
cara, why don't you offer him the Fairfax assessed value (or a Redfin or Zillow value) and watch his head explode? :-)
Ace,
Thanks, that image alone helped.
I could offer him the assessed land value, minus the cost of tearing down the house. That would be cute.
Ah, funny in theory not in practice.
cara,
i believe someone said here a while ago that there're still too many WTF prices and WTF seller in this market, but there're also those WTF buyers too. so i guess this is one of them...
it's not my $334,900 so i should just shut up, but contracts/sales like this are truly puzzling to me.
Cara - thats not necessarily an illegitimate practice. Right before the SW waterfront was developed, sales prices magically spiked in the space of a month or two, and the condemning authority paid prices very much in line with that.
Think of it this way, say there is a 1MM lottery payout. Tickets were sold for $1 a piece, but only 10 were sold and we know one is the winning ticket. In that case, the appropriate price for each ticket is about 100K, a profit of $99,999. The seller is getting a guaranteed payout and the buyer is either hosed or just made 10X on his speculative purchase.
In a way, thats whats going on here. If there is significant potentially valuable changes happening in the springfield area, its appropriate to price those in, discounting for the fact that they may not happen, or happen to you. At the same time, its also apprpropriate to price in a risk (downward pricing) that a rumored power substation will be installed next door, rendering your property worthless (you can be sure buyers would be pricint this in).
I will say this, if the guy is offering it FSBO, its very unlikely he is going to get anthing near this. Any prospective purchaser willing to overpay to this degree (and pay cash since it wouldnt appraise) will want a very long due diligence period, and a number of reps and warranties. However, anyone going FSBO on this sort of deal is likely very unsophisticated and unlikely to reach their target audience.
Expect this listing to sit for another year. After that time the seller will get serious and drop their price (especially if the redevelopment looks less likely to happen), or list it with loopnet or another site popular with CRE/speculator types.
I think I found why this guy thinks 0.9 million is reasonable,
looking at the fairfax county assesment office (linked to on NoVa's main page) 6600 Windham Ave went for 900,000 in 2005, was bought back by the bank, and sold to someone else for $524k...
Also, the "neighborhood comps" on Fairfax County are mostly in the 3/4 million range. Albeit none this year, and 5 of 11 were "not market value" some foreclosures some not...
Man the skyrocketing of values in this neighborhood since 2001 is nuts!! started at $132k for some of these....
...and off 22.4% from the peak.
I live Adams Morgan so here's my take on the snapshot.
-- Prices are drifting down.
-- People are holding back on sales.
-- Rental availability seems to be increasing. No to sure about what's going on with rents, but they are still high.
If you are buying, you can start to get deals. Studios are drifting below $200K (There have always been some places priced below that amount, but you don't want to live in them). One bedrooms below $300K seem to be increasing. (I don't pay attention to the single family houses).
Will something that sells for $220K today, sell for $110K (1999 price) by 2010? I guess if the economy completely destroys itself, unemployment goes above 15%, and we're all sleeping the park, well, then yes, prices will go below $110K. Heck, we may see the era of the $60,000 studio/one bedroom again.
Whatever. You can paint whatever scenario you want and find data to support it. I'm going to go with my experience. In 1987 what I owned, 150K, fell to $105 in three years, 1990-91; By 2002 it had recovered to $210K.
My view: stuff happens. In three years, ask me what I think.
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