Hattip to Contrarian for the link in today's Bits Bucket to this article from the Washington Post today entitled "A Sense of Resentment Amid the 'For Sale' Signs". It was an unexpected read for me -- the writer lends an ear to those who think bailing out irresponsibility isn't a good thing and who are also unsympathetic to underwater borrowers.
But I think this statement from page two is inaccurate:
"Prince William County is one of many ground zeros in the subprime mortgage crisis. Pick up a pamphlet on home sales in the county, and you will come across an ad saying "Foreclosures R Us!" Pictured are dozens of homes being sold for what seem like bargain-basement prices, some under $200,000. But there aren't many buyers -- because no one knows what anything is really worth, or whether the market is anywhere near bottom".They picked the wrong county for which to make that observation. May I remind them of some Prince William County market statistics (they are posted here on the blog on the 10th of each month):
August 2008 -- YOY sales up 116% to 1,000 sales with 5,600 active listings,
July 2008 -- YOY sales up 103% to 1,012 sales with 6,105 active listings, and
June 2008 -- YOY sales up 91% to 976 sales with 6,473 active listings.
No buyers here. Move along!
9/23 Update: Thank you, Richard Starr, at the Weekly Standard Blog, for getting this information out to more readers.
9/23 Update: Kudos to blog reader Ace for noticing that the Washington Post now says there are buyers in Northern VA:
"Home sales in Fairfax County rose 10.7 percent last month, the county's first double-digit increase in a year and a half, according to the most recent data from the company that tracks local real estate listings.But wait, here's another opaque statement:
The flurry of sales activity suggests that prices have dropped low enough to lure buyers to the Washington area's largest county. But the uptick in sales is not widespread throughout the region, and unemployment data for August show a steady slowdown in the region's economy".
"The trend contrasts sharply with almost every other county in the region, except for Prince William and Loudoun counties, both of which have been devastated by an unusually high share of aggressively priced foreclosures. Sales in those counties have been climbing for a few months as buyers have been snapping up deals".I wonder which other counties in which region? Are they referring to the whole state? In August, sales were up in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Culpeper, and Stafford counties, and only down big (19%) in Alexandria City (a small area) and down slightly (5%) in Fauquier.
13 comments:
I liked this story; it really does get across some of the resentment and anger that's tied to the bailout.
The point that "there aren't many buyers" may be correct even if the statistics show a different trend.
This is a quantum physics problem; where an object can spin in two different directions at once. Both realities are real, and so it is here. Numbers don't always trump or make a lie out what people sense from their own experience.
Kob,
I liked the story, too. It seemed to treat ordinary people in a respectful way for a change.
What stood out to me was that the writer of the article made the "buyers" claim, not some person on the street, and I thought it was a reporter's job to get some real supporting data out there. Certainly many people might be thinking houses aren't selling, because their own property probably wouldn't sell for what they would hope for based on recent past sales prices. But the brokers who are lucky enough to work for the banks as sellers are eating well in PWC. There are, I think, quite a few buyers in the bottom-fishing department. My "top discounts" column often gets away from me because the stuff gets sold.
Finally, an article that focuses on those of us who did not spend more than we could afford. I've felt that the media has run with stories demanding something be done (a bailout) and stories like these finally make me feel like responsible people who share my opinion might actually be heard.
Yeah, as bad a mess as this is the vast majority of the people out there are not behind on their mortgages.(if they even have one)
I am skeptical of just how bad it would prove to be if we didn't bail all these banks and investors out. I am sure many of them would fail, but what I am not convinced about is just how badly that would hurt the average citizen.
At some point you have to draw the line and say:
"hey, you guys are being paid millions of dollars a year because you are supposed to be experts. If you have failed so badly that your whole company is collapsing maybe you weren't in the right line of work."
Maybe WaPo is reading your comments, Harriet et al.:
VA home sales rise
What I worry about is the dollar crashing, and OPEC taking oil prices off the dollar.
If they did that oil may end up costing 500-1000$ a barrel, and us, as a nation of consumers and importers, may be in for a long, drawn out rebuilding.
I honestly dont know if bailing out the banks would liken or worsen he odds of that happening.
"Leroy said...
I am skeptical of just how bad it would prove to be if we didn't bail all these banks and investors out. I am sure many of them would fail, but what I am not convinced about is just how badly that would hurt the average citizen. "
Leroy - by and large I agree with you. In my mind, even without a RTC type bailout, there is an 80% chance nothing serious happens. Sure we will have a decent recession, maybe unemployment will double, but overall, we will be fine.
The problem is the flip side. I see a 20% chance of major economic turmoil. Without access to credit, I am putting companies (many who are otherwise very very solvent - they just have illiquid capital assets), into some sort of forbearance program. Other transactional attorneys I know are doing the same.
If that continues, we could have a serious contraction in GDP, large scale layoffs, etc. - all in sectors of the economy completely unrelated to housing or banking - and the cost of which could far exceed the cost of the bailout.
Again, I really reall dont think that will happen. Like I said 80% chance its no big deal. However, for me at least, the 20% chance of major disruptions (or worse) in the US economy is unacceptably high. Thus, I am willing to accept the bailout as the lesser of two (potential) evils.
got mixed feelings on this AP story
Census: Housing costs eat up half of more than 7 million Americans' incomes
on one hand i feel the pain. although i'm renting i feel the same pressure by paying ~40% of my take home on rent.
on the other hand it seems things in DC Metro are not the worst - not even making the top 13 cities. hard to imagine what those top cities are like.
My wife and I are looking to buy in Reston and are seeing a variety of good deals for SFH...our concern is our ability to sell our current residence.
We own a townhouse in Kingstowne, bought nearly 5 years ago...the market is down about $120K from it's height but we are still in the black...There is a foreclosure on our street in "blah" shape that has been out there for likely 5 months now...
With the BRAC at Ft. Belvior we should see interest in our location I would think...am I off base?
Mick
I believe you and your property in Kingstowne will be in a very good position for BRAC appreciation in about 3-5 years.
Even though the mandate by Congress was 2011 there will likely be several delays and even changes. The number of jobs going to Belvior is a crapshoot but the initial estimates from the panel is from
" DoD Recommends Growth at Fort Belvoir Under BRAC 2005
The Department of Defense announced May 13 its recommendation to increase operations and military activities at Fort Belvoir, Va. as part of the Congressionally-authorized 2005 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process.
Based on May 13th’s BRAC recommendations, Fort Belvoir has been advised to expect an increase of 3,677 military personnel and 14,753 civilian employees and contract personnel, for a total net increase of 18,420 positions, etc."
I did a presentation on BRAC last year specifically on FT Belvior and Aberdeen Proving Grounds. Feel free to download
BRAC REAL ESTATE INVESTING EBOOK
PASSWORD IS "smartinvestor"
http://www.hpepropertymanagement.com/ebooks.html
Mick,
As someone who just moved to an apartment in Kingstowne, looking to buy a TH next year there, all I can say is there's plenty of interest, but only at the right price. You say it's down $120k from peak. Based on what? Sales or list prices? From my perspective, most of the TH for sale are still at WTF prices. I mean seriously $350-$450 for a tiny TH just because it's newer than the 1970's ones and might have a tiny one-car garage? I'm not paying that. It would require both our salaries, and I'm not doing that. But the area is desirable, and people are buying places, just only the ones in good, move-in condition and at the right price. 5 years ago was 2003, that was already in the bubble, the roll-backs I'm seeing in Franconia Springfield are now at 2003, (not inflation adjusted). So, if you're willing to sell for what you bought it for, you "should" get away with that if you try to sell right now. Or, if you have some equity from payments over 5 years and your down-payment, that you're willing to eat into, you could wait til this spring and hope Reston drops more.
For a better (and less fed-up biased) perspective you need to go to the zip-code based sales history that novawatcher links to, sorry I didn't bookmark it... It's through the MRIS...
Mick,
here you go, this gives listings and sales by price ranges, so you can check out expected months of inventory in the price range you'd like to list in:
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/zip_stats.cfm
This will be more helpful than me gryping that the prices aren't what I want them to be, since obviously, I represent 1 buyer, not the 31 buyers there were in August for 22315. Cheers! But seriously, it all depends on price and value, sales haven't come to a screeching halt or anything.
The exit pollsters emphasized that the flaws did not produce a single incorrect projection of the winner in a state on election night. But "there were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry . . . and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush," said Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research and Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International.
========================
Thomson
MLS
Post a Comment