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Thursday, September 4, 2008
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24 comments:
I remember looking at this 2/2/0, 3-level, $500K Ballston TH (or maybe it was a few of its neighbors) back in 03 when we first looked outside of DC.
Prior sale price: $384,950
Prior sale date: Nov 18, 2003
Still 30% higher than 03. But I have a feeling it's going to sell quickly at or near full price even in this market.
But I'm surprised to see this brand new Rosslyn/Courthouse 2/2/0 1,000+ sf condo listed at $529K. It probably would've sold at $450K in 03.
I found this article from October 2005: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051009/BUSINESS/510090452/0/INDEPTH
Priceless Quotes:
'"We're not in a bubble, not Sarasota and not Florida," (remax agent)Lafabregue insists.'
'Like many real estate professionals, he predicts a soft landing in which prices dip slightly or appreciate at a slower rate. Too many people are moving to Florida for prices to suddenly collapse, he says.'
'While renting a house doesn't cost a whole lot more than in 2000, housing prices have doubled in many cases. For home buyers that translates into a bigger leap from renting to owning. It also means, as in Tracy's case, speeding up buying plans before prices get even higher.'
The one behind it (1107 N Vernon St. -- I'm assuming they are comparable) sold for $557 in 2006.
...Actually both were built in 1984 and have similar sq ft, but 1107 sold for less ($340k) in 2003. So, I'm guessing that 4529 11TH ST could have sold for at least $557k, if not more, in 2006.
MM,
Those are still depressingly expensive. The 2003 price is plenty steep enough. It's a nice place, adequate size, good location, but $500k? Even at $385k it seems steep to be asking almost twice the price of a similar unit that's at the end of the blue line. People are insane, that's the only explanation.
Let us know if your prediction of a quick sale comes true.
"low monthly fee" (Ballston TH)
Yeah - I'd feel great about paying $700 a year to have some shrubs watered/clipped and snow-plowing the parking lot once a year.
It's not a ton of money - but it would still bother me paying for what I assume is pretty much nothing.
Help me with this..."This property is a Notice of Foreclosure Sale. A notice was filed at the recorder's office by the lender's attorney signifying a public auction. This 3142 square foot property has 4 bedroom(s) and 4 bath(s). The estimated bid amount is $275000. This property will be auctioned at public sale on Sep 03, 2008."
Ok - so I know it says it was auctioned yesterday but I just don't understand this completely. I actually found the house (using zillow, county website et) but how do you find out where the action is if the location is not listed. Is this bogus? Is there somewhere this type of auction usually happens? I checked all the auction website that I knew and have no idea about where else to look. Newspaper? courthouse in pwc? Any input would be appreciated. Thanks.
Ronnie - in most states a notice of sale must be published in a broadly circulated newspaper usually 2 weeks or so before the actual sale and include the address, time, and other general details of the auction.
Where I practice in MD, that usually means we publish in the Washington Post, and sometimes in a local newspaper as well. Also, depending upon the county, you may also find a notice filed with land records.
Auction of Luxury Home in "The Reserve of McLean" - Minimum Opening Bid $2,000,000
This one is waaaaaay out of my reach, but I am allowed to dream for a house like this...
http://www.tranzon.com/Propertydetail.aspx?id=6075
Any prediction on how much it will get?
lw: they could at least do some landscaping, other than the KMart sapplings.
Also, if I'm buying a 2million dollar house, I want some land. That front yard can't be more than 10 feet deep. But, maybe that's just me.
zillow has a pic of that $2 mill house.
its backyard looks like it butts up agaists a well traversed road. (georgetown pike {193})
i'd doubt the prop sells in < 9 mnths.
with inflation creeping at 6.2% YOY, it will sell for $1.6 mil in about May 2010.
"People are insane, that's the only explanation."
LOL!
Er, there's another explanation: the market. I understand it's not good news for you to see that prices are fairly stable (and high) in N. Arlington, but as has been discussed many times on this site, there are market-based reasons for that (location, location, location, etc.).
Tom: A drop from $560k to $500k in 2 years isn't stable, especially when adjusted for inflation. Without inflation, that's an 11% drop. Or, if you had invested your money in CDs, that $560k would be worth $604k today, or a 17% drop [to the current listing price].
Tom,
Another explanation, the market??
Those are one and the same explanation. The market is insane people. Or greedy people, take your pick. The market explanation is actually why it will pop, because it's a bubble.
going back to mm's first post, that condo is in the 1800 Wilson Blvd building, 4-story condo, completed last year. Earlier, there were 4 Two-bedroom units for sale, $500's to $600s, very high considering the quality of construction/finishe, a gas station at one corner of the building (one unit had sealed windows because property line was so close to the station, but also useful for blocking the morning "gas smell with your coffee" effect), and NO pool for a high condo fee. I wonder if those people who bought were hoping for a quick-flip, and many are stuck livng there now??
tom:
i know there's very little for you to do this so this might sound crazy, but have you thought about putting your home on the market to help us get a sense of where the true market value is? i mean it costs you nothing to have it listed, and you can take it off anytime you want. perhaps frank from frankly would even participate and agree to list it knowing you're not truly serious about selling. but with the listing you could offer valuable insights of the market, especially what other active buyers are thinking/doing. again, this doesn't help you much, except maybe you'd get a surprise offer that'd allow you to trade up to your dream home.
something to think about?
"Those are one and the same explanation. The market is insane people. Or greedy people, take your pick. The market explanation is actually why it will pop, because it's a bubble."
You're right, Cara. The market is composed of insane people and greedy people. Also level-headed people, rational people, foolish people, wise people, nuts, thieves, sharks, and just plain old Mr. and Mrs. (and Ms. and Miss, etc.) Doe. In short, the market is made up of everyone.
Which is why it makes sense to watch the market and try to understand it, rather than rail against it as being "insane" or "greedy."
Whether the market will "pop" for N. Arlington, I don't know -- but because of the factors I've noted over the past few months, I strongly doubt it will "pop."
MM: your idea to put my home on the market "to get a sense of where the true market is" does indeed sound crazy. Mainly because we already know what the "true market" is: the market!
tom:
i said '...true market VALUE is...'
, not '...true market is...'
but thank you for your response anyway.
MM: there's no difference -- that's the point!
I think it's less that the sellers are crazy and more that, honestly- anyone willing to BUY condos for 500K are crazy. If people would stop then things could return to normal. It's essentially an apartment. You share your walls, you have someone above you and below you. 500K?
This area is insane. Granted I don't know a lot of other areas other than DC and NYC where I would ever hear someone state that $100/200/300 is a drop in the bucket (as I hear all the time). So maybe it's just perception.
Tom,
Observe the market?
The market drove prices up over 20% per year for multiple years.
That's greed and insanity. That is an observation. Yes, normal rational prudent people all got forced by the distortionary aspects of the market dynamics to pay painfully and ludicrously high prices. True enough. But they were not the drivers. They will however be the drivers that brings the market back down, if the new lower interest rates aren't enough to stabilize it, which they may very well be. We'll see.
Cara, I shudder to think of your reaction when you see this. But this is the market in this neighborhood in N. Arlington:
MLS AR6862704.
Tom,
Is this the kind of thing you're hoping to move up into? It's nice, it's cute, it has character, it looks to be in excellent condition. If this is what you want I hope you find something like this that will fit into your price range. But close to a million dollars seems steep, I'd say closer to the tax assessment of $785,800 seems more "reasonable". But honestly it's too much nicer and bigger than what I've been looking at for me to have a strong opinion on it. It's the tiny condos/townhouses that are comparable to what I'm looking for that I feel I can judge sanity or insanity of prices. Basically the stuff that should be the bottom rung of the housing ladder, that first-time buyers with no built up equity only personal scrimping and saving for the downpayment "should" be able to afford. This house is pretty obviously a move-up house or one that an out-of-towner with existing equity from a previous house with a previous job would want to move to. That's harder to judge how much it should go for, but I still think it needs to be closer in line to outside DC, NYC, San Fran, Irvine prices in order for the market to stabilize, such that people with normal amounts (as opposed to bubble levels) of equity could move into it.
Let me know what it sells for. That would be the market.
Well, I agree with you that this house is probably for a "move up" person.
I'll let you know what the sale price is.
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