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Tuesday, September 30, 2008
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25 comments:
Case-Shiller for July is out this morning. Washington down 15.9% YOY and 1.06% June to July. No surprises.
shamrock, do you have a link for that?
Link to Case-Shiller:
http://tinyurl.com/47srk3
is it time to play 'guess the sept #s' game yet?
Take a look at this:
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2008/09/zillow-home-prices-falling-in-northern.html
Notice how the graph for Arlington is completely different from every other county in N. Virginia. Prices are not declining there, for the many well-known reasons discussed at great length in this blog.
And thank God, I and most others don't want to live in Arlington. Whew!
Actually what those charts show is that more people do want to live in Arlington - thats why the homes retain value even in this collapse.
...or those graphs show that there are few sellers , and hence even with average demand, the supply:demand ratio is more favorable for sellers in Arlington than in Loudoun.
Doug,
I know you said a couple weeks earlier that you weren't feeling poorer, but at this point many people are. Moreover, for many the feeling may turn into reality if it hasn't already -- even with an up stock market today. I still stand my position that the downturn in the economy will be horrible for housing, even in the DC-Metro area and, eventually, in North Arlington. Don't get me wrong, I consider Arlington to blue chip real estate and it should hold up better than other real estate, but the downturn will eventually catch up.
Check out this article on MarketWatch: http://tinyurl.com/3zc3lw
"The purchase of a house is the ultimate confidence indicator, and if there's anyone out there with any confidence these days after what the markets and the financial sector have been through, then you're talking about the true eternal optimist."
The spreads are blowing out and there is increasing anxiety about job loss, so I see only bad news for local housing during the next 3-4 months. We'll see about the immuno-zones in Arlington; sales can stay low without price cuts for a limited time until sellers start to blink.
actually, doug and tom might have a point. If this massive 700B bailout gets passed, I would expect Arlington prices to rise, not b/c of inflation, but b/c of the massive amount of kickbacks, brides, lobbyists, etc, that they get and will continue to get.
This town is rotten.
Don't forget that two of the major reasons why N. Arlington real estate continues to do well are the continuous traffic nightmares and sky-high gas prices. Those aren't going to change, regardless of the bailout vote. N. Arlington's optimum location will continue to support its price premium.
Could it be that Congress is actually listening to the voters this time?
http://tinyurl.com/3pzd3r
I am curious, for those who have spent a lot of time in washington, how unusual is it that the Senate is voting on an appropriations bill before the House. Especially one that is a different version (meaning for it to become law the house has to pass that version)
Unless this is a regular thing, I see the Senate trying to put a lot of pressure on the house to pass this thing. The Senate is more immune to the populace's desires since only 1/3rd is up for reelection this Nov.
I think they are trying to put the screws to the House and the public to pass this bill.
I mean really, when oh when does a Pres., Sec. Treas. etc. come on TV and say financial Armageddon if this doesn't pass. 2 months ago, everything was sound, banking system, currency, etc . . . and now its a meltdown??
Now you see the news media with tons of stories how this will "hurt" main street.
I somehow feel like this bill is the last of the ponzi scheme and the entire US populace is the greater fool.
(I know it is and will get bad, but even after 911, the theme out of washington is "we are strong we have a strong economy, go spend", not fear, fear armegeddon.)
I dont really care if my home loses value. Its not my nest egg, its the place I live. When I sell it, if I ever sell it, it will be long after I have paid it off. Whatever I get for it will be the icing on the cake of my overall net worth.
The fact that my house continues to escalate in value, or at least hold its value, is a nice bonus and confirms my decision to buy in the best location available.
Tom - Regarding your claim that prices are not declining in Arlington: The MRIS figures show that the median price is down 14.1% year over year in August. I take it that you believe the zillow "guesstimates" are more accurate than the actual sales figures?
Doug,
For what it is worth, you continue to miss my point. I'm not talking about people's houses making them feel poorer or richer (although I also think that is at play), but rather that the problems in the economy and the resulting hits to 401Ks, jobs, etc. influence people's desire, or lack of desire, to purchase a home.
john fontain,
Hey, I was going to say that! :)
Yup, Zillow's guesstimates, which must in some way be based on the MRIS data, obviously a better indicator than the MRIS data itself. How many list prices way under the zillow estimate do we have to see to know that right now their model isn't functioning. Or isn't tuned to deal with these types of conditions. Given tha actual recorded declines in Case-Schiller and MRIS, all this tells you is that Zillow can't be trusted for accuracy in an unstable market.
i'm curious why MRIS uses Median Price istead of Average Price to gauge the price change. Does anyone know?
mm - MRIS measures both medians and averages. medians, of course, are more reliable as they aren't impacted as much by a few outlying extremely low or high priced transactions as averages are.
FWIW,
In Arlington most all zipcodes were down in both average and median prices. There was one zipcode where the average sales price was up something like 180%. I suspect this was due to a massive tear down/new construction project putting up McMansions of some sort.
If I can find the Sun Gazette article again I will go back and see what the numbers look like without that zip. I may even do a drive by to see what this 180% increase was all about.
As always, the devil is in the details.
My $.02
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Testing link:
FX6887877
Price: Testing my linking skills
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