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Tuesday, September 2, 2008
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24 comments:
Home Value Highwire, by Darci Marchese, WTOP Radio
"....Inside the Beltway, things are looking pretty good.
"Closer-in markets have stabilized," says Stephen Fuller, professor of public policy at George Mason University.
In Arlington, home sales were up 5 percent in July, while home sales across the region were down by 16 percent.
Fuller says Loudoun and Montgomery counties and D.C. are all looking strong...."
fuller's comments are always quite insightful.
What's he smoking? The usual, probably.
According to the 3 NVAR reports (condo, attached, detached) both sales (-31%, -18%, -7%) and median prices (-3%, -17%, -1%) were down in Arlington in July.
5307 26TH ST N
ARLINGTON VA 22207
List Price: $819,900
Original Price: $869,900
This is an owner-agent 4/3/0 on a relatively small lot (5,632 sf) in COUNTRY CLUB, one block south of Yorktown HS and one block north of the Harrison-Lee strip mall.
Looks like the owner/agent misread the market a bit in the beginning, but has remedied that with an aggressive $50K price cut recently (2 weeks ago?). It'd be interesting to see if there will be another price cut if it still doesn't sell, because there's a LOT of competitions in the $750K-$799K range - 15 actives and all have bigger lots.
Anyone making predictions on a blip up in month-to-month, instead of year-over-year and the overall trend deserves to be stripped of whatever "expert" status they might claim.
For that matter - weak wording like "looking pretty good" and "stabilized" sound positive, but really mean nothing. Shame on Marchese and WTOP for taking such weak, indeterminate and essentially useless verbiage and packaging it as news. That story wouldn't pass muster as an intelligent post on a message board - much less actual journalism.
Fuller, insightful? He's a paid shill and the target of ridicule.
MM,
It's pretty and very well redone. I don't know who thinks that's a Cape, but what do I know. I'd call it a germanic gingerbread brick house, but that's not an official style. But I like this one a lot. How's the condition on the competition?
I'll note for the record that the 08 Tax assessment on this place is only $603,600. (disregarding the earlier arguments over the usefulness of that as a metric). Even at that price it's too rich for my blood. But I think they are expecting slightly better healed buyers than me.
Cara, I agree it's cute. I'd call it a Tudor-style (doesn't have all the features but has most of them):
http://architecture.about.com/od/periodsstyles/ig/House-Styles/tudor-utica-jc-5240029.htm
It's only 1338 sq. ft, and maybe half of that has sloped walls due to the roof pitch. I'd say that would keep the value down. I would be surprised if it goes for over $800K.
Interesting :
UH OH!!
Ace,
Thanks for the link. I think "brick Tudor" would sum it up well, and be much more universally appealing than "the house that Hansel and Gretel were imprisoned in". "Fairy-tale" house evokes its smallness more than one would want to do.
Alex,
Sweet!! Even the impervious, immune markets are seeing stagnation and a touch of buyers remorse. Yes, there will always be a premium, but that doesn't make them immune. Ha!
cara, ace,
it's way beyond my price range so i could only look at data and guess what actual potential buyers could be thinking - but there're at least two cheaper under contract (KO) homes in 22207 that seem to have better values than the gingerbread tudor.
5/3/0, short-sale @ $799K ($975K originally), 8 houses down the street
3/3/0 @ $769K ($869K originally), but not in the same neighborhood so maybe not a good comp
from what i can see there is no new contract between $800K to $900K in 22207 (9 listings), but a good deal of activities between $745K to $800K (17 listings, 6 contracts). would that the sweet spot for this home too? dunno.
btw, maybe to buyers who need 60-plus bottle wine cellar this don't matter, but i can't rationalize a $800K+ SFH with no back yard.
Contrarian & Tedk,
Thanks for all the information you shared regarding FX6826468. I just returned to work after long weekend. One of you mentioned that 90% of assesment value is fair enough value for the house. The assesment is 538,010(2008). I have been told that house was assesed for 570,000. Have no idea where they come with that figure. My realtor told me Fairfax county properties always go more than county assesed value. Let me check the final price what it really sold for once the county update the records.
BTW some also said he/she won't go above 2003 assesed value which is $333,785 way way lower than current $538.010. Almost $200.000 less the current value. Do you really mean it?
- Leo
leo: I can point out plenty of properties in that region that have sold for less than the county asssessed value.
Heck, look at these graphs of McLean and Oakton, all normed to the 2006 assessment:
http://novawatch.blogspot.com/
Heck, here's that zipcode on Frankly. You can use the pulldown menu on the right to sort by LP/Tax ratio (listing price:tax assessment).
http://www.franklymls.com/default.aspx?m=R&h=800K&s=22032
NoVAwatcher:
http://www.franklymls.com/default.aspx?m=R&h=800K&s=22032
Thanks for the link. This view really helps.
- Leo
Contrarian: if you take a neighborhood and graph the assessments vs. the selling price, you'll see that the assessments lagged by about 18 months, at least on the way up. I have no reason to suspect that that has changed, and the only way I could see an honest assessment *not* lagging would be if prices remained flat for many years.
Leo,
For your property, I saw the tax assessment value as $488,640 here:
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6826468
I was saying 2003 market prices (not county assessment) would be the ideal ones at which I would personally like to buy, but for prices to fall to that level in the Fairfax areas of your interest, it may take another year or more unless you are talking about a distress sale not in good condition.
So, even if you are keen on making offers now without waiting for that kind of prices, try to stay within 90% of tax assessment if possible--that is just my thinking. Because, if prices fall at the rate of 10% /year over the next two years--which is quite possible, your loss will still be manageable.
Your realtor is misleading you. Many homes are selling below county assessment--in some foreclosed cases $100K or more below.
contrarian,
I recall reading templeton's many interviews in 2003. But I don't think his statements can be taken to mean across the board declines.
Because some properties in PWC have already seen 80% drops, 90% drops won't be a surprise in PWC. Places like Detroit have already seent that. But in FFX, ARL and Alex, for that kind of drop, there will need to be some sort of catastrophe--much bigger than the financial meltdown of Fannie and Freddie.
Though many of us bears got the larger point right, we were wrong about how slow and painful the unwinding would be. Many sellers are still holding onto wishing prices at late 2004 levels. The best that bears can hope for would be about 10% drop per year (across the board) over the next 2+ years. Of course some pockets will see much larger drops, but 90%across the board is not a realistic prediction.
Harriet, looks as if we have another spammer, just above my post.
I opened my daily update email from franklymls and saw 6 new Arlington listings in the selected price range, 4 or 5 of which were "new." I thought, great, the post-Labor Day surge is on; finally something new to look at. But every one of them was a house that had been sitting on the market a long time this spring and/or summer! Some of them didn't even have a price drop. I guess the reality of the slow and painful correction still hasn't hit home, so to speak, to these sellers.
I don't trust a word that Fuller says.
Hey Ace,
What email update from FranklyMLS.com?
I haven't made it yet? I'm a couple days from launching it, wanna be a beta tester? EMail me directly.
Or did you find a 3rd party hack to get alerts from my site?
Frank
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