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Saturday, August 30, 2008
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22 comments:
Looking for insights about the "Real Estate Trends: Prince William County" graphic on page F2 in the Washington Post today. I really think their numbers are all wrong, at least for the zip codes with which I am most familiar. Then again, the numbers are from January through March, so they are already hopelessly outdated. But just as one example, for 20110 (Manassas):
2007 homes sold: 372
2007 median purchase price: $330,500
2008 homes sold: 7
2008 median purchase price: $360,000
That just cannot be right. I need to waste some time today pulling my own numbers, but that has to be wrong.
In general, they have Manassas UP 2-4% over last year. That's absurd. They have most of PWC barely down 5-9%. Manassas has been the leading worst spot in the county--so much so, it shows up in national news stories as being one of the worst places in the country right now.
My numbers have Manassas down 50% from last year. I know I'm not crazy.
Maybe it's because only 7 homes sold in 2008? That 1/50th of what sold in 2007. The margin of error has got to be huge.
Is there a link to the online article?
With only 7 homes, a single million dollar home can skew things very easily.
I don't get it. Are they trying to say that only 7 homes sold in all of 20110 in the first quarter of 2008? That is implausible.
Is there a link to the article? I can't find it in the online print edition.
I don't think it is online, because it is just a map graphic and a chart on the top corner of page F2. I just threw my kids on our waterslide, so I'm going to try to look up the numbers really quickly.
Another example zip code, which I do not know where it is from:
20181
2007 homes sold: 23
2007 median purchase price: $530,000
2008 homes sold: 13
2008 median purchase price: $685,000
OK, just checked for 20110, and here are my numbers:
January 2007
28 sales
$330,950 median sold price
January 2008
34 sales
$214,950 median sold price
-35%
February 2007
41 sales
$369,900 median sold price
February 2008
50 sales
$230,000 median sold price
-38%
March 2007
45 sales
$303,000 median sold price
March 2008
60 sales
$207,750 median sold price
Total sales Jan-March 2007: 114
Total sales Jan-March 2008: 144
versus WashPost numbers:
Total sales Jan-March 2007: 372
Total sales Jan-March 2008: 7
2-4% increase in median sale price
How could this be?
Anyone with a hard copy of the paper and familiar with another PWC zip code care to do another cross-check?
Forgot one small thing:
The median sale price decrease from Jan-March 2007 to Jan-March 2008 was 31%.
I got all my numbers from the MRIS website.
Anybody remember this statement?
"It's tough to find something affordable that isn't in greater need of rehab than Amy Winehouse. For example, a quick search for condos or houses priced at $350,000 or less in Fairfax County showed only six properties. Six!"
This was back in March, and there were actually over 2500 properties in Fairfax under 350k at the time. Remember the source, folks.
-Jason
I know I'm talking to myself now, but I just did another zip code, and again came up with radically different numbers:
20136 (Bristow)
According to MRIS:
2007 Jan-March
126 houses sold
median price range: $415K-$433K
2008 Jan-March
103 houses sold
median price range: $333K-$393K
According to WashPost:
2007 Jan-March
175 houses sold
$462,000 median price
2008 Jan-March
67 houses sold
$384,000 median price
These numbers are not as egregious as the Manassas numbers, but still totally off.
I emailed one of the authors. I just don't get how they can get an entire county utterly wrong. The Post has written other articles talking about the 35% decline in prices in PWC YOY--so how could their editors think a graphic showing prices going UP makes any sense?! And what about the series of articles about Manassas being particularly bad, with prices down 50% YOY, compared to the designation of prices actually going UP 2-4% YOY for the first quarter?
Tabitha - could it be that the Post is looking at county land records whereas you are using MRIS records?
I ask because as so many properties in PWC are going into foreclosure, it could be that many are being sold at those clearinghouse style auctions, and (if no realtor was involved) missing the MRIS altogether.
CRT, you have a point, but two comments come to mind:
For one, I did a quick check of the Manassas assessor's website, which keeps track of Manassas sales, which are not tracked by the PWC land records, since Manassas City is a separate jurisdiction. For traditional two-story SF homes, it recorded 33 transactions during the first quarter of 2008, and some of those were "double" transactions, such as when a relo company bought a house and immediately sold it to another party. Ramblers and split-levels, 15. Townhouses, 52 for that quarter, though again, some were counted twice, because of a foreclosure and then a quick sale. So that would be 100 right there, and MRIS recorded 144, and since Manassas breaks sales down by style of house, the other 44 are probably in there somewhere, under more obscure styles.
How in goodness' name could the Post get 7 (!) for that same quarter?
(Wow--just noticed this townhouse's discount, 9257 GEORGE ST, which sold for $263,000 12/8/2005, and then for $92,000 3/12/2008)
Then there are the foreclosure/auction/non-MRIS sales...but wouldn't they ADD to the numbers, not detract from them?
The Post's numbers lead to the conclusions of significantly FEWER sales this year, with either small losses or even small gains in price. The numbers I have been tracking this year show significantly MORE sales, but for steep discounts, such as a third less PWC-wide, and half in hardest-hit places, like Manassas and Manassas Park. Those are radically different numbers, and radically different trends. I am trying to figure out how they could be so far off.
Good point Tabitha - if that was it then the Post would be reporting even more sales.
I wish I had a copy of yesterdays post. Nothing on this appears on the website...
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6744645
Who's 'Harry', and why did they target an ad specifically to him?
That's one of the best grammatical errors I've seen.
I went out with "Bargain Harry" in college. He was a real cheapskate.
What are your thoughts on
http://www.franklymls.com/AX6753962
Originally $965 - down to $750. Seems pretty good, needs a good renovation, but price seems almost too cheap.
They probably figured only Harry would be interested in "Harwood" flooring.
dgoldhirsch-- I don't see the appeal myself. That area's only a few blocks from Del Ray, where you can get a nice single family house for that amount-- and a town home for a bit over half that.
AX6753962
looks like a total rehab to me, including new wiring, windows and everything. That kitchen is 1950. So you put $250,000 into it, and do you have a $1 million home? I don't think so, not that neighborhood when there are others around that are modern and going for about $750,000 already.
Isn't Old Town much more expensive than Del Ray?
I haven't watched Old Town closely but it seems to me that fully renovated, good-sized townhouses, with garden space, on nice streets are much more expensive than $1000000. Notice the assessor's value also that seems consistent with that. I think the risk with this one is that the reno costs could be very high and it may be a pain to deal with the historical district/Alex. rules.
"Ace said...
Isn't Old Town much more expensive than Del Ray?
I haven't watched Old Town closely but it seems to me that fully renovated, good-sized townhouses, with garden space, on nice streets are much more expensive than $1000000. Notice the assessor's value also that seems consistent with that. I think the risk with this one is that the reno costs could be very high and it may be a pain to deal with the historical district/Alex. rules."
Yes OT is definitely more expensive. Despite the fact the houses/lots are smaller, part of it is the historical aspect, and part of it is that OT is nearly completely gentrified whereas del ray is still mid-gentrification.
As for the price discount, notice too that the place is currently split up for use as 2 apartments. Many of these places are now re-converting back into single family residences, but the cost of doing so is often extreme.
As Ace noted too, renovations in this area are costly because they must be done with the approval of the Board of Architectural Review. That often means original materials (versus cheaper faux stuff), and a very lengthy review procedure. Thus, if they are targeting the single family owner market (versus a landlord), the extreme renovation cost needs to be built in to the price.
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