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Saturday, August 16, 2008
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22 comments:
Here's a new trend I'm seeing in the WaPo notices:Trustee sales due to home equity loans taken out 2-4 years ago.
More specifically, these are places that were purchased long ago, 22-40* years ago, but I'm seeing them defaulting on debts that are far, far, higher than the original purchase price. For example, 525k worth of debts on a house that was purchase for $195k 22 years ago.
* the last sale doesn't show up on the FFX database, so I'm assuming this is the original owner when the house was built in 1968.
DC Metro Area home prices for 2nd quarter 08 were released this week.
I'm alittle suprised.
371 k 1st quarter down to only 370 k.
I was guessing at least 15 - 30 k drop.
So we are about 20% down from the peak for the dc metro area. One quarter doesn't make a pattern however next quarter will probably show an increase due to summer sales.
It appears that the freefall in prices might be over and a long leveling off period might start occuring now.
Steve: are the 'sales' based on the date the contract was signed, or on the settlement date?
For what it's worth, for two of the areas I'm tracking, I saw a big jump in sales towards the end of the 2nd quarter/beginning of 3rd, as well as a nudge up in prices. And when I mean 'sale', I mean the settlement date record in the Fairfax database.
I think this next winter will be interesting, because I get the feeling that if you weren't one of the luck ones to sell during that last rush for the door, you're SOL.
I believe it's based on actual sales data on settlements and not on contracts.
The 4th quarter 08 / 1st quarter 09 will be interesting. Due to the job growth and government in this area I just don't see prices going down to 2000 levels across the region.
Here's a new trend I'm seeing in the WaPo notices:Trustee sales due to home equity loans taken out 2-4 years ago.
Why isn't DC on Propertyshark.com? We've been seeing huge home equity etration in a high fraction of the homes in California; since this is a known national trend, it would be nice to quantify it in DC. About 1 in 5 in the neighborhoods I want to buy in CA extracted *all* of the equity increase.
It appears that the freefall in prices might be over and a long leveling off period might start occuring now.
Seasonality. This time of year there were increases during the 1990's drop yet home prices dropped another 20%.
I think this next winter will be interesting, because I get the feeling that if you weren't one of the luck ones to sell during that last rush for the door, you're SOL.
Credit is going to get tight. Give it a while though. Its a slow process.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I've been going through sales on this web site for 2008. It occurred to me that effectively, so far in 2008 versus 2007, its as if there just weren't any sales in the first quarter.
Let's put it another way, in zip 22201, there were 272 sales in the 1st half 2008. In 2Q 2007 there were 271 sales in just the 2nd quarter!
url broken up so it will fit:
http://www.househunt.com/
sold-price-history.
php?st=VA&zp=22201
So far, this is true of the nicer cities in CA, VA, and FL that I've looked into. Ok, I found *one* so far that did a little better: 90278 in CA.
It looks like we've lost a quarter of sales in the nice areas this year! I'm not expecting the 2nd half to look that good. Credit is tightening and fewer buyers qualify.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Generation Y will drive urban housing demand (and so much for the substitution effect), according to an analysis in the Washington Biz Journal.
>
According to Richard Charles Lesser’s research, 77 percent of Gen Y-ers plan to live in an urban core — a far cry from the baby boomers’ suburban dream of a white picket fence and a two-car garage.
Developers are paying attention: The 80 million Gen Y-ers (30 percent of the population to the boomers’ current 25 percent) will drive the real estate market in the coming years. They’re expected to transition from renters to homeowners starting around 2012 and flood the market with demand for more urban developments. That means more condos, more apartments and more townhouses. At the same time, even many boomers are moving back toward the city in search of walkable communities.
Generation X accelerated the trend toward city living — just look at the wildly successful Ballston and Clarendon areas — but the Washington region will only see more in-fill and new urban neighborhoods spring up in the years to come.<
I have a question about franklymls.com: Is DOM accurate? I have been looking at this house for a while and every day, the DOM is refreshed to 0/0.
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6827000
This house was put on the market as "under the contact" from day one since the beginning of August. However, the DOM is 0/0 every day. How can that happen?
lw, I think franklymls, or maybe mls in general, stops the DOM days once a house goes under contract. I have noticed the same thing you have on several other houses -- that the # doesn't seem to advance once the contract is in, even if it takes several months to close.
On another matter, I see that the Poplar Terrace houses (beautiful modern/contemporary inside, questionable exterior judgments) have now dropped to about $1.2 million from about $1.4 million originally (more with upgrades). It also appears from the listing that none of the remaining 3 have sold since the first one sold at a high price 2 years ago. What a shame that the architect/builder did not really think through some critical issues, and make different decisions, before building (plus their timing of the market was pretty bad).
http://franklymls.com/FX6522009
What's up with this place?
655 CALHOUN CT
Herndon, VA
MLS: fx6492380
http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:z2zC1Yy_p2sJ:franklymls.com/FX6492380+fx6492380&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=safari
http://tinyurl.com/5vrwsr
This is a short sale
Orig List: $499,000
last List: $309,900
Sold?: $280,000
Recorded sale: $407,900 <----?????
'Sold'? is from this web site (http://tinyurl.com/57ubv2), which I'm inclined to believe, as that sale price makes sense given the last list price. But the recorded sale on the Fairfax County database makes no sense -- who would pay nearly $100k more than list.
Poplar Terrace reminds me of a prison block. It may have won architectural awards, but I'm thinking of the Maryland House of Corrections when I see that street view of four of them in a row.
It is also neighborhood of $400,000 homes, and is jammed back on the lot so it doesn't have much of a backyard. Zillow's zestimate puts it at $950,000.
Ace,
Love the insides of poplar terrace, but man alive they look terrible from the outside. Those need some extensive and well-thought out landscaping with some full-price semi-full grown trees to diversify the look and give some color and soft edging, maybe a rock waterfall or two as well.
Ah, more houses that I like at 4 times my price range...
Yes, if they do what they say, the echo boomers will start a move back to the cities. But a) they're pretty young to be buying yet-- and with prices the way they are -- and salaries flat-- they may be putting off buying longer, and b) these aren't changes that happen overnight. I've been predicting a return to the cities for 35 years. The move to the suburbs started before I was born and if it's finally ending now (jury still out), hallelujah! But these changes happen over decades, not over a few years. Finally, there's a lot that can be done to turn suburban areas into more concentrated urban satellite cities, as is common in Europe. With the crime rates in cities still high and public education still in crisis, that's going to look a lot more palatable to the next generation once they hit their marrying, baby-making years (as opposed to their single, student days when, I submit, nobody in their right mind wants to live in a suburb.)
Agree, Cara.
And how many people who buy a $1 mill + home want it to look exactly like the 3 next door?
In the interior the kitchen seems oddly cut off from the huge spaces outside, making it harder to entertain. That (and some landscaping) could probably be changed without too much trouble and maybe the HOA would permit a change from the baby puke paint trim color. But not much can be done about the placement of the houses on the lots, their prison or apartment-looking exteriors, etc.
It really, really is a shame. Everyone associated with this project will probably go away thinking "you just can't sell great modern design in the DC area", which will further discourage that design, making it even harder for us to find great modern houses (if just to admire from afar due to price). But that is not at all the lesson they should be taking away.
Also, Cara, did you see that the 70s house with the waterfall is under contract?
Sarah, much as I admire the urban living concepts and the features they have to offer, I couldn't live with a garden (nor could my pets) and being just a little separate from neighbors. Doesn't have to be big house or yard. I think a lot of people feel that way even if they don't have kids at home any more (and other people with kids or extended family living with them need or want more space). I think that's why there will never be a total transformation.
ace,
re 70's waterfall house:
Yeah, you pointed that out the other day right? Is there a way to find out the purchase price?
It would be nice if they took the message as, don't build identical homes that look like prisons and expect to sell them for over a million dollars. But, you're right, that probably won't be the take-home message unless there's something about the modern design that makes it inherently less costly (like the boxy-ness) to build.
Cara, the other day I pointed out the Gumby (2008 built) house (on Quantico) was under contract--they both are. Arlington is very slow (usually) about updating their website on sales--sometimes it takes months. Maybe someone else knows of a better place to get the final sales price info (for those of us who don't have access to the full MLS database). The fact that both of these are (almost) sold shows that contemporary/modern does have its fans. Now if someone would build a smaller version...
cara/ace:
i'm sure you knew but an RE agent can run you comps with sold prices easy, if you have one.
LOL@ those poplar terrace idiots.
I know a couple that offered them 1.2M for one of them last fall, and were laughed out the door.
I went over and checked them out - they are cool inside, but risk looking horribly outdated in a couple decades as styles change. Plus right when you walk in from the garage, the unfinished basement is right in front of you, pretty ugly IMO.
Also, they felt cold and sterile.
I seriously doubt they will move them for more than 900k or so now.
Doug, maybe you should suggest that your friends go back now and either make a much lower offer or have the last laugh?
These houses are pretty big, so I suspect they'll sell before they get to the $900K range, even with their design problems and being in a neighborhood of mostly lower priced homes (although there is a street or cul-de-sac just behind them of comparably sized/priced newer homes). But it will be interesting to see...
sorry I just stumbled upon this now. Yes DOM only counts the ACTIVE days on the market. The DOM will freeze upon going under contract.
One think I'm working on that is really cool is showing your the original price of the PREVIOUS listing if a home was relisted multiple times. NO other website does that.
Frank
Frank,
How does the original price of the previous listing effect the buyer's strategy? I mean it's always good to have more info and for that I salute you, but why does the buyer care what wishing price the seller started at?
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