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Saturday, August 9, 2008
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57 comments:
Interesting comments, down blog.
the Anonymous Not buying in 03 because I was told to wail til the bubble burst looks more and more likely to be a huge mistake.
gte811i Someone who treats buying a house like trying to buy a stock based upon a "hot" tip from a "reputable" source is IMHO asking for trouble.
the Anonymous In the end, I accept that it was MY decision not to buy. I made the mistake, and I have to live with it. Still it just gnaws at me because I was literally just days away from entering into a contract when I heard about this whole bubble thing.
ace I personally do not believe the Arlington prices will ever drop to 2003 real values or below, for a variety of reasons, ...
Tom As I've noted elsewhere on this blog, N. Arlington is probably permanently priced above the means of most folks, in the way Georgetown and Old Town Alexandria are.
the Anonymous
As to this blog specifically, I dont know if "most saw it coming" is really correct. For me, the "oh shit" moment was when Novawatcher posted records that showed the amount of flipping (and junk loans) was heavily concentrated in the outer county areas. This was only a few months ago and if I recall correctly, it seemed like it was a bit of a shocker to many on this board.
Cara In the truly ritzy areas like Georgetown or Old Towne Alexandria, "income" to price ratios will remain higher for the reason that really rich people don't report all their income (or rather offset it), and some of their spendable cash isn't "income" at all.
Tom So I expect S. Arlington will slowly gentrify. I suppose if a homebuyer wanted to adopt a long-term view, buying a SFH in S. Arlington (depending on the neighborhood) might make a lot of sense!
Jules Let me assure you that there are plenty of people of means who live south of Route 50 and that neighborhoods such as Arlington Ridge, Fairlington, Shirlington, Park Fairfax, and Arlington Village are hardly barrios.
I haven't seen the blog mantra, "not inside the beltway, not in Arlington, not in my neighborhood" for a while.
What happened to the comparisons between Rockville, which is outside the beltway, and Del Ray, which is inside the original square of the district and a couple miles from the jobs at the Pentagon, Pentagon City and Crystal City?
I'm not saying that it's easy street here, close in. It's not.
However, someone is refurbing the garden apartments next to the East Glebe Giant. There are SFH for sale in 22202 for under 600K. Prices are soft and a person with some guts and bucks could still do OK.
No guarantees.
It's too early to hunt for bargains in the real estate market, according to John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which advises large builders and investment firms.
He does acknowledge that some markets are worse than others. And thinks that the worst areas (certain outlying areas near Irvine, California), his grim prognosis is that balance [supply = demand] won't come until 2014.
http://tinyurl.com/6nbakw
Found a nifty real estate report offered by Altos Research.
Look at the charts for Arlington:
http://www.altosresearch.com/research/VA/ARLINGTON
Compare that to Manassas:
http://www.altosresearch.com/research/VA/MANASSAS
This tool shows the disparity between real estate in the two areas. Both are deemed as buyer's markets, but Manassas has far more supply than demand. Doh!
Check it out yourself, the charts are interesting and there are many localities to choose from.
(Sigh.) And, this is why I stayed a lurker...
Kh, in no way was my comment meant to imply South Arlington is/was bubble proof.
My point is that anyone who dismisses everything south of Route 50 as Little El Salvador isn't/wasn't doing their research and are potentially missing out on some great places to live.
Interesting to see that median prices are up, but median price per square foot is down. That seems to suggest that prices have fallen, but there is a lower proportion of sales on the low end.
Joyrene - as to that Altos research site - it seem a little inaccurate. It indicates there are 425 houses for sale in Arlington versus MRIS, Ziprealty & others saying there are about 850-900 for sale?
Also a median price of 725K seems a bit exaggerated for Arlington, considering its about 300K higher than reported by MRIS.
Jules - re the earlier thread where I called South Arlington little El Salvador - you should know I am speaking in generalities (especially as compared to North Arlington).
I could also say you are going to find (in general) alot more remnants of the ghetto in Old Town than most places. That does not mean I have bad feelings about Old Town.
In any event, if those generalities are inaccurate, I stand corrected.
kh,
Not sure what point you are making.
Regarding factual info:
There are exactly 3 detached homes < $600000 in 22202 for sale at this time, as shown on franklyMLS.
All are very small (2 are 2 bedroom/ 1 bath). From the photos and descriptions, at least two need tons of work and $. The third is sold as is, which suggests it does too.
The anon, the generality you used re: S. Arlington would be analogous to saying "Old Town is (or is becoming) a ghetto." That's why it's not accurate.
novawatcher, I believe other sources of data have shown that, recently, there have been a higher proportion of sales of SFH vs. condos than last year at this time, in Arlington.
Ace - as I said, I stand corrected.
Jules in no way was my comment meant to imply South Arlington is/was bubble proof.
I'm not saying that you did. My point for a year or so is that price crashes, close in, probably would not occur. A 10 or 15% pull-back? Sure, possible but Arlington and Alexandria would not see anything like a crash.
Ace There are exactly 3 detached homes < $600000 in 22202 for sale at this time, as shown on franklyMLS.
That's 3 more than zero.
One thing about detached is that you can expand the place in ways that you can't with a TH or garden apartment.
While prices could continue to fall, the mantra and belief that the bubble-busting was moving inwards, mile-by-mile, has proven to be wrong.
The good news for those who bought-into-the-bubble, is that while prices in Arlington didn't collapse, they didn't go to the moon either.
As you say, there are 3 SFH under $600000 in 22202. That's two more than any one needs.
KH - you might remember 3-4 years ago the term "soft landing" was very popluar (mostly with the realyers but also with MSM as well). I seem to recall a very venomous bubble blog years ago state that anything less than a 20% decline would be a soft landing.
No one talks about that anymore because by and large, this has been a crash in most areas. Yet, perhaps its time to bring that term back to distinguish between the markets that were killed versus those that were merely injured. Regardless, this might be the term you are looking for.
kh,
I'm glad to see you are still around and spouting the same old crap-just like lance . . . I was starting to get worried.
This downturn will be over when the khs and lances finally throw in the towel. I seem to remember kh starting off 1st saying very little to no pullback, then it would be brief 5-10%, now a 10-15% "pullback" . . . keep moving the goalposts. Good to know a 10-15% drop in price is just a momentary minor "pullback". My memory could be faulty however (and I'm not going to waste my time pulling up old posts).
anon . . .
I'm glad my comments weren't taken as if I were flaming-and I appreciate that. Sounds like it was a constructive dialog.
Great, the narlmblas are back.
no worries GTE - sometimes its just good to vent...
amen to that!
It's probably futile to ask this, but, KH, did you bother checking the lot sizes on those properties? Do you know about the Arlington restrictions on lot coverage? And do you know how much contractors are asking to add on these days? ($300 per square foot not including cabinetry or appliances, is one quote I've heard)
Not much potential in at least two of them. The third might qualify as a teardown.
I still don't see the point since your follow up post didn't say what it was, but there may not be one. My point--that I've made many times before--is that anecdotes aren't evidence.
gte811i I seem to remember kh starting off 1st saying very little to no pullback, then it would be brief 5-10%, now a 10-15% "pullback"
What? Brief? I saw prices go flat for a decade in the 1990's.
Ace did you bother checking the lot sizes on those properties?
Nope, not my job. I encourage you to put forward and link your finds.
Here's the thread where Alexa and I discuss lots and lot sizes. 9,000 square feet seems good sized.
Just as I expected, KH. If you're going to make assertions about what one can do with a property, or what it's worth, etc., you'd be a lot more persuasive if you actually had the evidence on your side--and linked it--first. Geez, you would think it would be humiliating when people keep showing where you are wrong...
KH, if you would be so good as to check the franklymls info that I provided to you previously--you can't link a search result--you'll see that 2 of the houses had lots of LESS than 5000 square feet. The other was around 6000.
To change the subject to something that might be more entertaining:
Does anyone care to explain why this house has a much higher asking price, and is in contract:
AR6644211
when a house that appears to have the same floor plan and different, but not-that-different, finishes is unsold at a much lower price?
AR6453011
And why does the latter house have a higher assessed value by Arlington?
Ace If you're going to make assertions about what one can do with a property, or what it's worth, etc., you'd be a lot more persuasive if you actually had the evidence on your side--and linked it--first.
What are you going on about?
Please review the link to my discussion with Alexa. Click on the underlined blue words, scroll to the bottom. Click on the underlined blue words.
You did not provide any links.
Here's another that's just outside of Alexa's parameters. This one is interesting as it's 2 lots, total 14,765 square feet for $699,000 asking.
What am I doing? I'm linking to search results. I'm being humiliated.
Ace you would think it would be humiliating when people keep showing where you are wrong ... -you can't link a search result-
Sheesh.
Here's the back yard of 2710 JOYCE ST S ARLINGTON, VA 22202 Price: $689,000 7440 square feet
The point is,
1) There are occasional interesting SFH available.
2) South Arlington isn't the barrios.
3) No one is giving anything away.
FYI july MRIS stats are out.
FYI july MRIS stats are out.
Sales in 22201 way down.
For myself, and most of "NOVA", the prices in N. Arlington could go to the moon, and we wouldn't care.
If some pretentious yuppie-town is all exclusive through price, that's probably a good thing. It gives the rich a place to go have a real-estate orgy.
For the rest of us, prices are down, and will continue to come down, and this is a good thing for most people because it means affordability is back. Or at least on it's way.
Personally, I'd expect even the prices in such enclaves as N. Arlington to come down over the long-term. There is a lot of demand for those properties; enough to keep them out of the affordability range of anyone but the rich, but even the rich have to acknowledge affordability.
Median sales price in Arlington down 8 of the last 9 months. Alexandria City has now been down 6 straight months.
yeah . . .
sorry to be offensive,
but you couldn't pay me enough money to live in those sh$%boxes in N. Arlington that kh posted.
So if they want a POS cardboard box at 750k, you can have it.
On a related note,
I have no idea why the quality of houses constructed around here are such POSes and not just in the past 5-8 years, just in general the quality of the houses are horrible. Having grown up in the south, Atlanta, NC, and even AK homes are generally much better construction, materials, design, and quality.
The houses going for 750k in DC are the same type of POS houses, on the same type of acreage I rented from in college, not worth more than 75k.
http://www.franklymls.com/AR6644211
I like the $5 tree out front, and the JIT sod-work.
One of my pet-peaves is new million+ houses with $200 in landscaping.
gte811i: When I moved here in 2002, the first thing I noticed when looking at house was that in general, the construction quality was BAD.
When I mean bad, I mean windows-that-don't fit-the-frame bad. E.g., double hung windows that would never shut completely because they were 36-inch windows put into a 30-inch hole.
I mean brick-front houses. When I first saw that here, I thought 'WTF? They're too cheap to finish the brickwork?'. It looks like ass, and this is the only metro area I've seen it in.
And I'm with gte811: I'm not about to pay $750k for a tiny house in North Arlington that is the equivalent to the stuff I used to squat in in college. If I worked in that area and that's all I could afford, I would leave. There are plenty of cities in the US where I can earn the same (or greater) and the cost-of-living is a fraction of the cost.
Thankfully, I don't live or work there, and Oakton and Great Falls are more my cup of tea anyway.
Ace, Sure you can link a search result. I spent a lot of time and money making those links as short as possible.
NoVAwatcher said...
One of my pet-peaves is new million+ houses with $200 in landscaping.
Mine is the million+ house with the $15 bathroom fan from Home Depot. I mean come on, they sound like a low flying jet.
one more time, KH - I told you exactly how I found the three houses - I searched for detached 22202 houses under $600K. The MLS info shows the lot sizes and other info. All you had to do was to do exactly the same search and you would have seen exactly what I did. That's what you should do before making assertions about what's out there.
Frank, I tried to post the search results URL in a link, but when I checked the link by posting it in browser (since we can't edit), it did not work. It sent me to a page with no info on it. Maybe a tinyurl would work, but that shouldn't have made a difference. Maybe it was a temporary firefox glitch.
More fruit loop analysis from kh... about all that needs to be said about that.
I agree with the others here about the tacky building in Northern VA. It is a shame that so few people are willing to pay for quality.
I guess that is the only way to say it. Even million dollar houses today are simply not built the way they used to be. It seems like corners are being cut every step of the way.
"Leroy said...
I agree with the others here about the tacky building in Northern VA. It is a shame that so few people are willing to pay for quality.
I guess that is the only way to say it. Even million dollar houses today are simply not built the way they used to be. It seems like corners are being cut every step of the way."
Agree wholeheartedly. Its a shame no one builds anything anymore that is designed to last more than say 50 years. Planned obsolesence if you will.
The condo development up the street from me is the shell of a 180 year old city jail complete with ornate brickwork and dentil molding. Another is a 120 year old elks lodge made from limestone blocks. Both were neglected and abandoned for long periods of time, yet the quality construction (good bones) meant both could be salvaged and put to new use instead of being torn down.
Anecdotally, I am seeing more claims filed against the builders for shoddy construction - mostly for stuff built during the years 1999-2006. Builders were willing to take very shoddy subcontractorwork due to the shortages of qualified skilled laborers. Inspectors were severly overworked, and understaffed, and there are documented cases of buildings that were completed without ever receiving a proper inspection. Stuff that causes all the trial lawyers to salivate, and the insurers to shudder.
ace: The only real difference in those properties to my eye is the one under contract -- AR6644211 -- is walking Metro distance.
BETA TESTERS
Hey you all, can you tell me what you think of our new feature that will let you sort homes by the List Price/Tax Assessment?
That way you can quickly see which homes are most below tax assessment.
Also we added a new "favorite" system, without having to log in.
http://FranklyMLS.com .
Another house in PWC that sold for less than its original sale price from 2003:
14000 GARROW CT
BRISTOW, VA 20136
5BR/4.5BA/half acre/backs to trees/four finished levels/culdesac
$450,000 5/30/2008
original sale: $465,040 7/22/2003
asking price once it became a foreclosure: $569,000
asking price when it went under contract: $519,000
on market for almost a year as a foreclosure
original owners finished basement themselves
All the other houses on the same culdesac originally sold for the upper $400s new in 2003.
This is not a run-down Manassas-area neighborhood--it's in the heart of Bristow.
I just saw a most curious new listing in Manassas, in the neighborhood where we used to live. It's a strange dead-end street off of 28, a mile from Old Town, where a developer squeezed in a few McMansions back in 2003. Each of the houses has a rotting front porch--seems like they used a bad batch of wood--and they all seemed to have plumbers/heating/cooling trucks outside all the time during the two years we lived there...our house had a host of problems, too, with all the major systems breaking constantly, siding peeling off when there was wind, trees falling down when it rained...and our garage door simply fell off one day.
Well, a house on that street just went for sale, but the couple who lived there was semi-retired and always said they wanted to stay there the rest of their lives. They already moved out, before it even went for sale. And they are asking $565,000, its current assessed value. They paid $505,000 in 2003, but they finished the basement and did incredibly extensive landscaping. So as a nosy former neighbor, I must ask: WHY did they put the house on the market?
And as someone who received several tongue-lashings from them regarding my children coming too close to their precious grass, I must ask while restraining a little smile ;)
Why was the construction so shoddy and the beauty so lacking? Simple, more money than class, culture, or civilization.
One cannot embrace ghetto music, ghetto dance, ghetto language, ghetto dress, and ghetto rutting habits and then expect to exude refined taste in architecture.
kidbuck: I notice that you are posting from a brand new account. I find your declared beliefs repugnant and I feel obliged to so state.
thanks, gruntled. I also agree about the points re: shoddy construction many have made here. Let's hope the changing market conditions will change that.
Frank: that LP/tax sort option is pretty sweet.
Also, I've had no problems making an url by adding the MLS # to the end of "www.franklymls.com/"
for example:
www.franklymls.com/FX6475914
This may get lost in the fray putting it in such a full bucket, but:
Patience grasshoppers! Affordability is coming!!
I know none of us are interested in tiny 2 bedroom garden apartments even if they are a short walk to the metro, but bare with me.
Surrey at Machester Lakes has reached sanity price levels. This spring when we were walking around the area, we called that these would be at $180k by the "end" of it. And here we have $196k:
http://franklymls.com/FX6842397
The others in the complex?
Surrey 22310
still asking?
229.9
250
251.9
254
Which is "reasonable" if you're using the comps:
5 Sales in the last 6 months for between 229 and 250.
The true bottom may indeed be an overshoot, and lower than this one REO, but the fall slasher-fest has begun, and it's only August!
The light at the end of the tunnel is here, the bottom of the market in the near-in metro accessible suburbs has been touched.
But for those of you waiting on the move-up buyers here's your bad news, they have no equity, they're not coming.
If I weren't expecting my seventh, I would seriously consider this house, which appeals to my true love, restored old houses:
8905 QUARRY Rd
MANASSAS, VA 20110
Price: $309,900
last sale: Aug 08, 2007 $640,000
bank takeover: Apr 11, 2008 $641,783
I have to agree with gte811i, the quality of housing here is sub-par. It surprises me that buyers here have been so tolerant of poor quality.
Beazer Homes has built a lot of subdivisions, THs, and low-rise condos here in the last 12 years. Though far from being a high-end builder, back home they always built a solid dwelling. N. Virginia is quite another story. I met a guy at a conference in April who used to work for Beazer until last year. He talked about the quality of building in this area. He claims Beazer got by with highway robbery. Bought land for not much more ethan land in Atlanta. They built a far less inferior product here. I asked why. He said because they could. Building codes are apparently not what they are in some areas of the country. He also said that the profit margins were so much higher here than even the houses they built in Cailfornia.
Back home Beazer doesn't use vinyl on any of their houses, but here, they built entire houses out of the stuff and sold them for the $800s. Whatever were the buyers thinking?
Beazer actually built and sold less homes here than in some areas, but made so much money that this area alone could have kept the company extremely profitable. His final comment was that the project managers in the home office often talked up the fact that the people here would buy anything.
Of course, he could say this because he no longer works for Beazer. The loan division went into the sub-prime business. Enough said. Still it is telling on how outside builders viewed the entire area. Didn't the people who were buying here get it? Or are they so accustomed to poor quality and over-the-top valuations, they checked their brains at the door? Afterall this area is supposed to be home for some of the smartest people in the world. :-)
Case in point:
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6842416
Nova watcher,
Glad you like the sorting. I have to remove the ones that have no tax data and put them at the end, vs having them show up first.
Also I just added the tax year. The MLS freezes based on the tax year data available on the 1st list date. So some listing will be 07 and some 08. Now you can see the 2 in a glance.
next up... email alerts for saved homes. I wanna find a way to do that without annoying username and passwords.
Ace
Sometimes the blog comments will cut off the search string if it is too long.
But Cara was able to link using HREF code Surrey 22310
Frank
Maybe Harriet would start an Ugliest or Most Cheaply Built House thread. Novawatcher, I think your linked house is a strong (weak?) candidate.
"Ace said...
To change the subject to something that might be more entertaining:
Does anyone care to explain why this house has a much higher asking price, and is in contract:
AR6644211
ace: this puzzles me too. if i were rich enough to look at those two, i'd definitely go with the other one.
perhaps the final sales price will tell the story.
tabitha:
Holy cow! That's a nice little property in an area that almost makes me willing to consider moving to Manassas. Then I took a closer look.
It's directly across from my high school. Freaky.
xpovos, I had you pegged as an alum!
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6842416
ace: I took a look at this place again, and at first glance it looks like a walk-up apartment building. What were they thinking?
novawatcher, how 'bout this beaut:
http://franklymls.com/AR6794563
Enough square footage (or rooflines) for ya?
kcwood said...
I asked why. He said because they could.
A good friend of mime had a house built a few years back. He stopped by every day after work to see how things were going. He poked his nose in, but was careful about not upsetting the builder. Unless there were some glaring discrepancies from the original plans, he said little. Why? As described to me:
His soon to be next door neighbor was over at his own build site every day taking the builder to task (as he should have been) on every little detail that did not meet speck/what had been agreed upon. Finally, the builder refunded the neighbors monies and told him to take a hike. They had other buyers in the queue that wouldn’t be so picky.
I admit this is a third party anecdote, but in this day and age it would not surprise me. I asked around about the legality of this and it basically came down to who actually “owned” the home during the building process. It was described to me as “private property” of the builder until the keys were handed over. Moreover, of course the builder had its own “preferred”’ lender that most buyers in the sub-division went trough making any complaints by the buyer to the lender moot.
So yes, they built them that way “because they could”. For every buyer concerned about quality and holding the builder to it, they had several other buyers foaming at the mouth to purchase anything that they threw up.
tabitha,
Wow. That's a find. It's gems like that one that make me loathe to pay $300 for a junky 1980's townhouse, even if it is walking distance to the metro. I don't care if people say that it's not comparable because of the location, it still constitutes a sense of perspective.
Frankly has no interior pictures, have you taken a look at it in person?
Cara, I saw pictures when it was listed before it went into foreclosure, and it looked exquisite, truly breathtakingly beautiful...but that's coming from someone who adores historical homes, and who knows what may have happened when the owners moved out? I've walked past it, because it is across the street from Seton School, where we have a lot of homeschool functions, and it's pretty from the outside. It is totally walking distance from the Manassas VRE.
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