Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Northern Virginia Real Estate Statistics
REAL ESTATE SEARCH
County Assessment Websites
Buy/Sell Without an Agent
Local Real Estate Agents
Housing Economics Blogs
Local Interest
Housing Bubble Links
Eastern Regional Blogs
Western Regional Blogs
- Bakersfield Bubble
- Bay Area Real Estate Blog
- BubbleInfo (N. San Diego)
- Burbed (San Francisco)
- Dr. Housing Bubble (SoCal)
- Patrick.net (San Francisco)
- Portland Housing Blog
- Professor Piggington's Econo-Almanac
- Rancid Truth (Orange County)
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- Seattle Bubble
- SoCal Real Estate Bubble Blog
- Socket Site (San Francisco)
Real Estate Blogs
REAL ESTATE AUCTIONS
33 comments:
Stephen Fuller, a professor at George Mason U., is frequently cited in the media as an expert on the DC area housing market.
To assess his credibility - or at least his ability to read the market and predict trends - you might be interested in reading his report (Jan., 2007), which is linked within this article:
http://tinyurl.com/create.php
Hope you'll find it as amusing as I did. For example, in the executive summary:
"This strong job growth will continue to support increased demand for housing in this region...Current trends indicate that the excess units on the market should be largely taken down by the first quarter of 2007 with price stability being achieved during the first half of 2007...Housing remains a good investment for households in the Washington DC area."
This has been written about many times before. The GMU Center for Regional Analysis, much like Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, is funded by the REIC and, thus, tends to issue bullish housing reports.
Don't really want to make a topic out of this, but I'm looking for some comments from the folks who know Arlington well.
Can you give me a good idea where the "good" locations are in Arlington? I was told 22207 and to stay away from the south side. Example of some places my agent sent me :
LINK
I'm trying to say under $600K. We tend to like older homes in established communities.
The inner-Arlington market (walkable to Metro) seems to remain strong. 4318 N. 17th St. (in 20007), a typical Arlington 3-bedroom, 3-bath colonial, sold in June for 845K. The sellers bought it for 865K two years ago, but that was at the height of the boom. So they took at 20K bath -- but the news to me is that a house like that still sold for 845K!!!
Alexa: as a longtime N. Arlington resident and homeowner, I can say that:
1. N. Arlington is a completely different world from S. Arlington. S. Arlington is more like PG county, with lots of blue collar types and illegal immigrants. N. Arlington is vastly more upscale in every respect.
2. Do you need to be near Metrorail? If so, prepare to pay a premium to live in a N. Arlington neighborhood within walking distance of an Orange Line Metrorail station.
3. Beware of real estate ads that say simply "Metro at your door" or something similar. That means a bus, which counts for exactly zero. Metrorail is the only transportation method that counts, and with gas prices and traffic nightmares around Washington being what they are, many many people are interested in relocating to within walking distance of Metrorail.
Stephen Fuller and his grad students are/were supported by NVAR. I'll let you read into that what you want.
Alexa,
In 22207, Highview Park is still in transition (for example, I recently saw a burned out house there that had obviously been that way for a long time). I personally would consider it too risky to move there. There are also other neighborhoods in North Arlington that are not quite as nice as others.
re: "South" Arlington: 22202 --Arlington Ridge and other neighborhoods nearby--is completely different from 22204 and 22206, in demographics, housing prices, etc. There are very few foreclosures in 22202, similar to most parts of North Arlington. The blue and yellow Metro lines are there, which may be one of the key reasons why it's more like 22201/3/5/7/9 than like 22204 and 22206. There are some complex issues re: Arlington schools but if you don't have kids, this wouldn't be a factor.
Alexa,
Also, you should also check several websites, such as NVAR's, MRIS, and MLS, for actual home price selling data for all homes in neighborhoods and zip codes that interest you (or ask your Realtor to provide the info). Some posters like to pull out an anecdote here and there rather than look at the full set of data, and have never responded to the challenge posed by others to spell out exactly what kind of gerrymandering they want to do in order to make cross-time comparisons.
Alexa,
Sorry to keep ps-ing you, but you can also find out sales prices at the Arlington County website. For example, here is a recent sale in the same neighborhood that Tom cited:
http://www.co.arlington.va.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/Inquiry.asp?Action=View&lrsn=11595
The house sold for less than $55000 and less than the assessed value. Several of the other recent sales in the same neighborhood (you can see these easily on the Arl. Co site) also sold for less than assessed value. Others sold for AV or more. That's why you need data for entire neighborhoods and zips rather than one home here or there.
oops sorry, a zero was omitted - that should have been $550,000.
Ace said...
Some posters like to pull out an anecdote here and there rather than look at the full set of data, and have never responded to the challenge posed by others to spell out exactly what kind of gerrymandering they want to do in order to make cross-time comparisons.
Thank you Ace.
tom: wtf is wrong with metro bus?
i use it all the time from alexandria to pentagon.
it's perfect.
"tom: wtf is wrong with metro bus?
i use it all the time from alexandria to pentagon.
it's perfect."
For some reason it is harder to be elitist about riding a bus... go figure.
Bas:
If the bus works for you, I'm delighted. My previous comment was simply a reflection that for most folks, Metrorail is by far the most prized means of public transportation because it is (generally) predictable, and in any case not susceptible to the vagaries of traffic congestion, as are buses.
Did anyone attend any interesting open houses today? If so and you feel like writing a report, please post it here.
As Leroy suggested, busses have a bit of an "image" problem in this area. Really many areas as number of studies have suggested that, for whatever reason, many upscale, professional types are reluctant to ride a bus (whereas they seem to have no problem with rail).
That said, this seems to be changing. The last time I was in London, I noticed how many profesional types were on the bus (seems like their congestion pricing may be working), and in this area they are giving many buses a facelift, and (in some cases) going back to streetcars.
Interesting times...
Busy day, just reading this.
Thanks for the comments! Not really interested in being that close to a metro (rarely use it) - but I like to have good resale value. Any other info would be *greatly* appreciated!
Hey Alexa,
I'm not so sure it makes sense to buy just for the future resale, at least not the way you are talking about it.
If one place is $600,000 and near a metro, and another place is $550,000 and not near a metro... in 10 years the spread will probably still be the same (some might argue that with traffic the metro one will go up more) but the point is that it is already built into the price.
Another example, somebody might say "don't buy a place on top of route 7 since it will make for a bad resale." But if you buy a place that would be $700k if it were in a neighborhood, but now is $500k and on Route 7, the price is built in. When you go an sell it, sure it will sell for $200k less than that same home on a quiet street, but you got it for $200k less in the first place. SO price drives in.
So if you don't use the metro, don't pay the $50,000 premium, just to be able to have good "resale."
Make sure you sign up for email alerts, as the properly priced homes do sell quickly.
Also search craigslist for FSBOs
like:
www.tinyurl.com/madisonmanor
(I just sold my mother's place in that neighborhood)
Frank- Broker blog.FranklyRealty.com
Thanks for your comments, Frank. I understand what you are saying about the value being "built in" when you buy it, but I happen to believe the metro will become much more relevant as it expands and the roads get more clogged. That should mean a place next to a metro will do better comparatively to everyone else (up or down). When I buy, I buy always thinking "how easy can I sell this place?" Some people don't agree with that mentality.
At this point, I'm trying to get the knowledge of the folks that live there or are at least knowledgeable of the area. Something like :
- Stay away from X neighborhood.
- Generally above 29 is where you want to be.
- 22xxx, 22xxx have excellent schools.
Ace's comment :
"In 22207, Highview Park is still in transition"
is very helpful to me.
If value is your primary concern, I would look within say six blocks of Ballston, GMU, Clarendon, and perhaps Courthouse (though Courthouse has the jail right there with all the stuff that accompanies it, so Clarendon area is a better bet, in my opinion). With that in mind, you're looking at zips 22207, 22203 (22203 is right on Ballston) and 22201, I believe. Basically, from about four blocks short of Lee Highway, to maybe Pershing, and from Rhodes (I would say further North and you'll really get hit with aircraft noise in Rosslyn) all the way down to George Mason by Ballston. Prime Ballston neighborhood would be, I would suggest, Waycroft-Woodlawn in the 22207.
I wish I had access to this study. Many of the reports on ssrn.com are free, but this one cost. However, I thought the abstract of this research paper was interesting .....
Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles
Edward L. Glaeser
Harvard University - John F. Kennedy School of Government - Department of Economics; Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Joseph Gyourko
University of Pennsylvania - Real Estate Department; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Albert Saiz
University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
July 2008
NBER Working Paper No. 1
Abstract:
Like many other assets, housing prices are quite volatile relative to observable changes in fundamentals. If we are going to understand boom-bust housing cycles, we must incorporate housing supply. In this paper, we present a simple model of housing bubbles that predicts that places with more elastic housing supply have fewer and shorter bubbles, with smaller price increases. However, the welfare consequences of bubbles may actually be higher in more elastic places because those places will overbuild more in response to a bubble. The data show that the price run-ups of the 1980s were almost exclusively experienced in cities where housing supply is more inelastic. More elastic places had slightly larger increases in building during that period. Over the past five years, a modest number of more elastic places also experienced large price booms, but as the model suggests, these booms seem to have been quite short. Prices are already moving back towards construction costs in those areas.
Thanks for all the advice a few weeks ago on finding a new rental.
Thanks to your advice I was able to accurately ascertain the minimum price I could expect for a 2 bedroom within 1.5 miles of the Metro in the south of 495 Alexandria area. Which was essentially $1435 for a tiny one from an individual owner, and mostly started at $1495. So, for $110 more (including pet rent) we got a decent sized 2 bedroom at the Elms at Kingstowne, which has an excellent location and good upkeep as well as all the usual upsides of a management company. And, since I had already done my looking, we were able to take advantage of the, "sign within 72 hours of first contact and get the first prorated month waived" deal. So we can get the keys on September 4th, have the entire month to move in, and not pay rent until October 1st.
All things considered, including our sanity levels, this is definitely a good outcome for us.
Alexa,
Probably too late, but it's not like it's a war zone south of 50. Shirlington's nice, as is Fairlington. It doesn't have metro, but there's lots of buses. Resale values in the newer developments are liable to be good, and there's a lot of fun stuff. There's a big difference between far north arlington (lots of houses and pretty yards) and southern arlington (lots of urbanites, walkable things to do/see), so check it out. Columbia pike's not pretty, but they're working on it.
WaPo Column
Housing Collapse Ahead?
Not According to the Data
By Charles W. Calomiris, Stanley D. Longhofer and William Miles
Monday, August 4, 2008; Page A11
In the gee, no really? category of "research", they point out that most markets didn't have bubbles and most middle-income people in those non-bubble markets had normal mortgages. Gee? you think? Why this is in the WaPo, when D.C. most definitely did behave like a bubble, is another question.
But we can always have the OFHEO versus Case Schiller argument here like there has been on Calculated Risk.
Alexa: Before purchasing in ARL, we looked throughout Arlington, including the south side (there are nice places but just wasn’t right for us). Another zip to consider is 22205 but you will quickly notice that it is on both sides of I-66. I think that the feel of the zip is very diff depending on which side you live on. Although more difficult to find, there are some under 600Ks to be had in 22205 and 22207 N. of 66. I’m told that makes a big and positive diff in the school systems. We live in Waycroft-Woodlawn and it is extremely friendly. As I have said before, our house was originally listed OUT of our price range. When it dropped enough for us to even make a low-ball offer, we offered about 7% less than list and 7K in closing costs. Some realtors says low-balls don’t work. They do if you have the time and inclination to do it and don’t have a tendency to “fall in love.” We made 5 offers in the N. ARL and Falls Church areas (all rejected) and got ours for 28% off ORIGIONAL list (and lower than accessed). My advice to you is three-fold: house-stalk, low-ball if you can, and look above your desired price-range. Metro-walk was very important to us. We really liked Cherry Dale, Waycroft-Woodlawn, and Madison Manor.
I have lived without a car in South Arlington for 5 years (though I could easily afford North Arlington), and I have to disagree strongly with Tom's comment: "That means a bus, which counts for exactly zero. Metrorail is the only transportation method that counts..."
The orange line on weekday at 6pm is not my idea of a good time. Metro is at capacity, I can't usually take my bicycle on it if needed, there is no scenery to watch, and the places near a metro stop are overpriced....
kob, if you email the first author and request a copy of the paper, you may be able to get it. His email address should be either in a footnote that may be posted at ssrn, or you can go to Harvard's website and look for him.
kob, Glaeser has a link to a .pdf of the article you want at his website:
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/glaeser
Thanks all...Amy, your mentality is just like mine. I actually keep the search ceiling at $700K because I'm sure I'll cut a much better deal. I hope to knock anywhere from $30K-$100K off the price. YES, IN NORTH ARLINGTON. :) Or I'll do Old Town..or maybe Leesburg??
Alexa,
This South Arlington one is above your $700K threshold but check it out. Maybe you can lowball it?
"5 blocks to Metro. House needs cosmetic work but it is solid, offers off street parking and fenced in yard."
"626 21ST ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22202
Subdivision: ADDISON HEIGHTS
Price: $795,000 - For Sale
MLS ID: AR6763778
County: ARLINGTON
Status: ACTIVE
List Date: 05/17/2008"
9,000 sqft. Potential for expansion in the future.
KH...too far out of range. :)
Alexa, here's one that in the same area that sold recently for much less. It shows what comes up from time to tome. It's not as "charming" as the 626 21st street place but is similar, large lot, brick, older place, needs upgrading and landscaping.
Yeah, the kitchen and bathroom need help.
Here's an available smaller place. 2104 JOYCE ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22202, $450K.
SFH for the price of a condo?
Post a Comment