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Here comes Labor Day weekend! Any bets on the autumn housing market? I'm seeing some capitulation in prices and some "for sale" pile-ups in certain neighborhoods, although overall inventory is lower than last year.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/29/2008
Posted by Harriet at 11:09 PM
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24 comments:
i wonder how accurate RealtyTrac data is. half of the listings on their website are outdated or wrong.
http://www.franklymls.com/PW6857790
6 bed, 3 bath, looks like it had some major additions (2 gar garage, rooms above, and florida room), good neighborhood.
$252,000 bank owned
Last sale:
8/24/2007 $510,000 (!!)
50% off! As I mentioned to my wife, someone made a really bad judgement call almost exactly 1 year ago. At best, they could have only made 6 months of payments before defaulting.
It is well priced for the neighborhood and if it is in decent condition will probably sell <7 days for at or above asking price.
"MM said...
i wonder how accurate RealtyTrac data is. half of the listings on their website are outdated or wrong."
Realty Trac does have a tendency to overcount since a notice of default counts as a foreclosure, and then likely counts as a foreclosure again when a writ of possession or trustees sale is recorded. Also, they do not account for anyone who excercises the equity of redemption, only to be back in foreclosure a few months later, etc.
That said, even though they overestimate, they are consistent with their overestimation. So, if they say 1 in 1,000 homes in foreclosure in June and then 1 in 500 homes in foreclosure in July, its still safe to say the rate has doubled, despite not knowing what the true number is.
Has anyone used foreclosure.com? Is it more accurate than RealtyTrac? I tried RealtyTrac couple months ago and found it useless. I wonder if foreclosure.com is any better?
FX6826468
I put a contract for this house for 510K. It was listed on 550. It is on contract now but not from me. I am looking for single family in zipcode 22032,33 area. All most all of them listed above 525.
Any idea what is selling range here?
BTW what happened to Lance nowadays? Anyone seeing around.
lw,
Frank of frankly.mls asked this a couple of weeks ago, and no positive responses were given about either service.
joshb said: "50% off!"
It sure is good to see prices returning to rational levels supported by fundamentals such as incomes and rents.
It's funny because when I first read "50% off!" I thought, "That's not 50% off, it's just no longer 100% overpriced." Semantics, I know, but we all have to keep reminding ourselves that price declines such as the example you provided aren't really deals in the absolute sense, they're just normal, fair prices that we're finally seeing once again.
leo: you can use redfin to do a search of past sales for an area based on sqft, bedrooms, etc.
Personally, I think that $500k is much too high for that place. It doesn't even have a garage.
Thanks NoVAwatcher.
redfin is a informative site.
- Leo
Re: PW6857790
hmm i question the allure of the 'gas utilities'. if i'm going to have acres of power lines behind me i might as well use them to their full potential
joshb,
50% less than previous sale is absolutely normal in my part of PWC. In fact, if it is not "discounted" at least that much, you should be wary, I think.
Then there are the strange folk who are still asking MORE than what they paid in 2006...I suppose because they have no choice?
Leo, NovaWatcher,
Regarding FX6826468, I think because it is in the Frost-Woodson school pyramid, asking prices are still high in the area.
But, looking at the falling prices, why would you want to pay more than county assessment? I wouldn't pay more than mid-2003 prices. Looking at it another way, why pay more than 90% of the 2008 assessment unless there was substantial renovation not accounted in the assessment?
Of course, that may mean you have to wait a year or more.
I think the current assessment is generous by about $100k.
John,
That is very true. It's within typical prices yet above average for that neighborhood. I was just so surprised when I saw the last sale so high only a year ago. (Thus someone made a bad boo-boo.)
There are many homes in the area that are almost or within fundamentals. The mortgage (PITI) for this particular house would be only $100 than I'm renting. I'm in a SFH in a nearby neighborhood, built the same year.
tabitha,
Where in PWC are you?
In this neighborhood most reasonably priced houses ($230-270k) are off 30-40% from peak in Spring 2006. (Less desirable Dale City neighborhoods have houses 50% off, currently $100-$180k.)
leo @ 11:35AM:
BTW what happened to Lance nowadays? Anyone seeing around.
Lance posts over at BubbleMeter with the "anonymous" immunophiles. They (or maybe it's just Lance and himself reposting as multiple "anonymouses") convince themselves that they were right all along and the bubbleheads were wrong because six zip codes in the DC metro area haven't quite tanked yet.
Head on over there. Good times.
joshb,
I'm in Manassas, and I am beside myself over some data presented in the Post's real estate section today, which I believe is completely wrong. On page F2, there is a graphic and a chart showing changes in median price, and I am going to waste some time proving them wrong today.
The Luck of the Landlords
Supply of Available Rental Homes Is Rising, but So Are the Prices
By Christopher Twarowski
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, August 30, 2008; Page F01
Leisch contends that the impact of the shadow market, which had affected the mid-level rental apartment market significantly during 2006 and 2007, has waned.
It hasn't affected business at some of the region's largest landlords, according to executives.
Chris Finlay, managing principal at Mission Residential, describes the Washington region's rental apartment business as reaping the benefits of "ideal conditions." Finlay attributes much of it to the growing demand from the Generation Y population, who are now entering the workforce and looking to rent. He also points to growing numbers of immigrants, who historically have started out in this country as renters.
"We view the fundamentals for the apartment market [as] almost unprecedented," Finlay said. "It's really almost an ideal scenario."
At Kettler, one of the region's largest real estate and property management companies, the occupancy rate is 96 percent, according to Chief Marketing Officer Jamie Gorski.
"So far, we've been able to continue to absorb all those new buildings and even lease against individual units from condo purchasers and still do very well," Gorski said. "So for whatever reason, our market is still a great rental market. It's a great rental market both for owners and both for people who are customers who are renting."
Just as I had predicted ...
Looks like supply has outpaced demand, just as I predicted.
Likewise, rents have gone up at a rate of 4.8% per year, much slower than the increase in the cost to own.
The average rent, according to this story, is $1,485. That can go a long way to paying a mortgage.
As a rent, you can get a very nice studio in Ward 1/2 at this price, and some excellent one bedrooms as well.
But I can see the rental price creep. I just came across an ad for one bedroom in a building I once lived in in Foggy Bottom advertised for $1,800, which may be a high for that building (and possibly pushing it)
If you are willing to pay about $1500 for a rent, then buying a studio in NW DC (and you can easily find a lot of studios in Ward 1/2 for south of $250,000 and then some) makes sense.
Regarding the Post article, rents and supply can increase at the same time, but not for long. The article had the familiar this-time-it's-different quote with no exploration as to how a good's supply can increase along with price. Every Post article regarding real estate seems to leave more questions unanswered than answered.
Joshb - that property has all the earmarks of having been turned into a rooming house. I've seen a couple like this, and not something I would touch with a ten foot pole. You have to blowtorch all the crevices to kill the roach eggs. It's that low for a reason. Wait another 18 mos - price capitulation will happen in reasonable properties.
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