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Thursday, August 28, 2008
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13 comments:
http://www.franklymls.com/DC6726272
555 Massachusetts Ave, $417
Sales:
Jan 30, 2006 $476,900
Listing History:
Apr 11, 2008 $449,900
Apr 30, 2008 $429,000
Jun 11, 2008 $399,900
Jul 25, 2008 $379,900
20% off in the heart of DC. It's different here.
For anyone interested, I repeated Calculated risk's real price adjustment for the Tiered DC data. I used the regaional CPI (less housing) for DC available from BLS. Results:
33.4 percent real price decline for the lower tier (REAL peak = 6/2006)
30.8 percent real price decline for middle tier (REAL peak = 4/2006)
22.0 percent real price decline for high tier (REAL peak = 4/2006)
28.4 percent real price decline overall (REAL peak = 4/2006)
novawatcher
Wow, $379.9k!!
freudian slip $417 -> #417
impressive.
bubbleboy,
Thanks. Also more impressive than the raw figures.
Two numbers jump out on that listing ... $476/sq. ft (811 sq. ft) and $365 mo. condo fee.
Even though the Verizon Center is about a 10/15 minute walk from there - that is a real nowhere part of town. So you could be plunking down $75k to get to a 20% downpayment, and then more than $2500 a month for a 1br + den in a recently desolate section of town?
You can find a pretty good apartment for $2,500 a month in DC in a decent neighborhood, can't you? And your security deposit isn't going to be $75,000.
Brutal.
I dont know if anyone else follows it but there has been major movement in the case shiller futures market in the last 2 days.
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/re/housing.html
Aparently, it liked what it saw when the latest CS report came out on tuesday. Beginning of the bottom is still early next year, except its now a lot shallower than it was (maybe another 7-8% to go).
It looks like a lot of the local markets have gotten shallower too. NY, Boston, CHI, even DC (which has always been market darling in terms to holding on to long term gains) is a bit better. Even car wreck victim LA got a slight bounce. The trend is not our (renters) friend.
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/re/housing.html
There is one exception - Vegas - apparently its doomed forever!
anon--I looked at the CME futures settlement reports that you referenced. I'm not sure I am reading the data correctly, as the website is arcane to say the least.
From what I can glean, it appears that the volume traded on these futures is extremely low. Is this the case? If so, then significant price changes will occur when even one person places a bet.
Bubbleboy, agreed the website is horrible. I cant tell about the volume, but if it was low, I would expect to see some real volatility but I dont.
I say that because it has been telegraphing "bottom" this spring for the last 9-12 months and really hasnt changed much since then at all.
Even now, the change of the last few days wasnt that great - its just the most volatility I have seen, and unfortunately, its in the wrong direction. (Except Vegas Baby)!!!
Another interesting, thing, that bounce they show next summer in DC - the one that says we will be up YOY by then - thats been there a long time.
Problem is, we have another leg down to travel this winter so I dont see how we can get that far back up by summer 09. Maybe they figure all the foreclosures will be done by then and then the only remaining (non-distress) sales will push up prices quite a bit.
Honestly, I expected that bounce to go away a while ago but it hasnt. I mean, I can see the logic behind the bottom but not that bounce. If I had any guts, I would put my money in and short the heck out of futures summer 09!
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/re/housing.html
That thing is a joke.
It is traded razor thin.
"Dominic said
That thing is a joke.
It is traded razor thin."
Maybe - but wheres the volatility? Put your money where your mouth is and bid it down my man!
anon--I think there is no volatility because there were no trades period. In just the past couple days there were some trades, which is why there finally was price movement. I have seen this on tradesports/intrade in the past.
zeropointzero: I argued that it was a a real nowhere part of town last year, and someone else disagreed and said that it was the new hip-happen' place for young professionals with advanced degrees.
But, yeah, I agree it's a pretty brutal hit.
If anyone if looking for more perspective about that DC condo...I own a condo close to that building (I'm closer to 4th st). It is actually near a lot of stuff and right next to 395.
I think they started too high, hence the major price drop. Also, its size is small @ 811 sq ft (mine is 1050 and is assessed at $436K).
Oh, and they bought at the peak. :)
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