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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
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18 comments:
Affordable SFH, "walking distance" (by my definition of under 2 miles) to the end of the blue line. Decent neighborhood, no yard:
FX6848021 on redfin $255k
Giving the redfin link this time because it has the price history:
Date Price Appreciation
Aug 24, 1998 $139,500 --
Sep 01, 2006 $430,000 15.1%/yr
Jul 24, 2008 $359,681 -9.0%/yr
Someone paid 430k for this? that's a 41% discount from peak prices!
It seems to be an REO based on the Jul 24 2008 sale, and it's not a great house, but it's arguably the best architecture for sale at the moment in the subdivision:
frankly beverly park 22150
People may want a better house, a bigger yard, arlington schools, whathaveyou, but single family home, reasonable commute, affordability is now here. I'd like this one to go down closer to $200k so that the ones nearby with actual lots can come down to affordability, but that may be wishful thinking.
I heard a brief blurb on WTOP this morning that Arlington County had the highest delinquency in tax payments ever this June or July. I believe it was for car-tax (aka personal property tax) payments, and they had to utilize their most agressive efforts ever to get payment. Anyone else hear this? I couldn't find anything else about it online.
And all you Arlington deadbeats - get those checkbooks out :)
inventory keeps shrinking in 22207 in my price range...
19 listings btw $590K to $700K, 6 under contract (2 new contracts) as of today; down from 21 listings and 5 under contract (1 is now sold and off MLS) just 4 days ago. (courtesy of franklymls.com)
must be the dog days of August...
Oh BTW, the other day I had a theory that there is no buyer for $600K-$700K listings due to either financial or psychological 'boundary' - well one $655K listing just went under contract. So there goes my theory I guess...
zeropointzero, if it is real estate tax (first half were due in June) rather than car tax, I can offer a boring possible explanation. When I did my first half tax payment online, I learned later that Arlington had credited it erroneously to second half taxes. I kept getting these emails and robo calls reminding me that the deadline was looming, so I finally contacted them and asked whether this was routine. It wasn't, and that's how we found the error, which was corrected. If they did this to a lot of people, but people ignored the calls, emails, etc., thinking they were sent to everyone, they have an inflated number of "non-payments."
mm
21 to 19? sounds like small number statistics to me. But really, even as buyers, my attitude is we should want inventory to shrink, we should want houses to go under contract. Let other people keep doing the price discovery and we'll buy when it's settled down a bit, and sellers have some sense of how in the world to price a house.
When does Arlington normally send out the bill? I don't remember getting one yet this year, and I looked back through my checks for this year, and I haven't written any for the car tax in 2008.
Cara, that first one has a LOT of potential, IMHO. Would be tough not to have a yard though (I always wonder, why not get a (less expensive) condo or townhouse if a buyer doesn't want a yard?).
ace,
Yeah, if we were still in the market this year, instead of holding off one more year, this would definitely be the top of my list. Which is part of why I point it out, if anyone reading this blog is looking in the same area and price range, this is the best deal in a while.
The townhouses in the area at $255k are a lot smaller than this, but some have bigger yards. This is below almost all TH prices in the area(but also a longer walk than many of them). And this has a garage which most of its neighbors don't, and none of the inexpensive townhouses have garages.
I guess it could have been related to property/real estate tax - except that they mentioned that they had taken to steps like "witholding licenses" to ensure compliance - although that doesn't seem to fit the county's role vs. that of the DMV. Maybe it was business-tax related?
I didn't hear the details all that well, obviously. And, FWIW - the story ended up with them saying the agressive collection techniques had managed to cover most of the shortfall in collections.
I just got my personal property tax bill yesterday, paid it yesterday also.
Its due October 10th.
Sounds like you got your facts wrong, way wrong.
It could have been real estate tax.
Oh and for comparison here is a you have got to be (expletive deleted) kidding me price in Beverly Forest for older smaller houses with nice wooded lots:
http://franklymls.com/FX6789334
$496k wishing price, for an unexpanded 1940s house with tenants. Yeah, right that's cash-flow positive... Grrrr. Yes, please, I'd like to pay twice the price for half the house, one block over just because it's on a nice lot. Grrrrrr.
cara, regarding FX6789334: the agent describes it as a bungalow when it is nowhere close to being one.
do these agents even look at their properties before listing them? or just not understand the basics of house styles.
john,
cute. Given that the house is listed at almost 500k, when even zillow thinks it's worth only $330k, I don't think the agent cares, they're not going to get a sale before this one falls to foreclosure due to the rent not even covering neg-am payments.
regarding FX6789334:
1993: $163,000
1999: $152,000
2005: $460,000
There is no way that place is cash-flow positive. This place is a future foreclosure.
"There is no way that place is cash-flow positive. This place is a future foreclosure."
Don't be silly, DC is the capital of the world.
It's a new paradigm.
"Leroy said...
Don't be silly, DC is the capital of the world.
It's a new paradigm."
Awww - makes me wax nostalgic I miss (prices in 90% of the area are flat or up) Lance.
Its rare that you get to debate someone who 1 regularly puts their foot in their mouth and
2 (heres the mistifying part) never admits the mistake, backs down, etc.
Its funny, the guy had moments of brilliance, but it was the thick candy shell of idiocy that was his downfall.
Leroy - admit it, you miss him too.
He was amusing once you gave up on trying to explain things to him. Once you accepted that he had zero interest in actually understanding the market and was instead just going try to dream up scenarios that would benefit him personally he could be pretty funny.
The various "priced out forever" threats and so forth were distasteful. It is one thing to be a nut, it is another to try to scare people into taking your bad advice.
I think it is best that he is gone now. He tended to get in the way of real discussion and rarely added anything of value.
And all you Arlington deadbeats - get those checkbooks out :)
But they'll never compete with the California deadbeats. Traditionally, a recession is declared when a number of states must cut spending. So far, a few states (e.g., NJ) have been very proactive keeping expenditures in line with revenue. The nation will feel it when California tries to cut the (current) $15 Billion deficit.
Leroy - admit it, you miss him too. Lol... no. I prefer a debate on forward looking indicators. Its not all doom and gloom, but housing was over-invested. As investors start to sell to free up cash... it will snowball.
I just blogged the Deutsche Bank chart of mortgage securitization... Its close enough to zero to say that the secondary market for mortgages has shut down.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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