Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Prices fell 22% in Fairfax County in July! The tsunami is working its way inward.
john, can you tell me where you're getting the info? I usually can find it on NVAR but they haven't released their detailed reports yet for July.
please ignore my last post; I found the info on MRIS (searching by area).
"John fountain said...Prices fell 22% in Fairfax County in July! The tsunami is working its way inward."Could be.Or, given that Arl & Alex went from double digit to single digit declines, maybe a period of more modest declines is spreading outOr, (my view) its all just monthly noise at this point.
I'd go with noise.Wait until the fall seasonal crash. I can't wait to see how they (NAR) try to spin that. Watch them switch to YoY to take advantage of the start of the slow down last year and then choose to only tout the inventory numbers or something. "Inventory down 5% YoY, real estate market returning to normal!!"
crt, just trying to annoy you... :)"on 8/5/08 4:04 PM CRT said... "Anyone want to bet on who will be the biggest loser on the price front this month????"Im going to go out on a limb and say... Arlington.Before anyone falls over in shock, the reason I say this is because last July Arlington posted a +25% price increase. In reality, there is no way prices were up +25% last July... this was a 1 month spike that was never repeated, so I expect Arlington to give it all back this year, and then some.In a nutshell, this is why I hate tracking median prices. For a period of 3 months, 6 months or especially a year, they have some value. However, as far as a single month goes they are just too volatile."
Some Alexandria (City) highlights that I pulled from MRIS. (in oder of zipcodes by total # or sales). First figure is 2008, second is 2007 - third is %change. Hope formatting works.22314Average Sold Price: $ 716,774 - $ 617,302 +16.11 %Median Sold Price: $ 572,000 - $ 557,750 +2.55 %Total Units Sold: 59 - 68 22304Average Sold Price: $ 379,805 - $ 414,290 -8.32 %Median Sold Price: $ 332,450 - $ 356,000 -6.62 %Total Units Sold: 40 - 6922302Average Sold Price: $ 379,364 - $ 400,940 -5.38 %Median Sold Price: $ 325,000 - $ 322,000 +0.93 %Total Units Sold: 26 - 2922301Average Sold Price: $ 618,847 - $ 593,160 +4.33 %Median Sold Price:$ 537,500 - $ 529,900 +1.43 %Total Units Sold: 22 - 15 22305Average Sold Price:$ 441,938 - $ 549,065 -19.51 %Median Sold Price: $ 405,000 - $ 497,500 -18.59 %Total Units Sold: 21 - 20 22311Average Sold Price: $ 477,444 - $ 456,750 +4.53 %Median Sold Price: $ 450,000 - $ 410,250 +9.69 %Total Units Sold: 9 - 6
These are July 2008 vs. July 2007 figures, btw. First time I've used the MRIS database - so apologies if I've missed something.
No worried MM. I noticed that too so I went back to double check. As it turns out, the big bump up in prices last year was not in July 2007 (+10%) but in August 2007 (+25%). As such, I hereby reitirate my comment the biggest decline next month will be in Arlington. That said, I am a bit surprised Arl did not give up the entire 10% bump from last year (i.e. it didnt revert all the way to Jul 2006 levels). Thus, my comment that Arlington will be the worst performer is a bit more tenative than it was last month : )
Zerodown...Those numbers look correct, however I think you reversed the order of sales (you put Jul 2008 numbers first Jul 2007 numbers second). Thus, it looks if sales increased in Alexandria - they havent - still down YOY. Just wanted to clear that up.
CRT - not sure I get you - I cut and pasted from MRIS report generated from putting in zip codes here:www.mris.com/reports/stats/The first (left) figure IS 2008, second is 2007 - and, it shows avg./median increases in price in a couple zips, like 22314 (although that average gain in 22314 is probably skewed by a few 7-figure sales), and fewer # of transactions for the most part, except in some smaller zip-samples.I'm not sure what to infer from the numbers, except to say it doesn't look like a disaster in June.Check it out yourself and let me know if you still think I'm misreading it.
CRT, Cara, and MM, Here's another possible factor:July 2007 - ArlingtonDetached homes sold: 112Attached homes sold: 30Condos sold: 161 (53%)July 2008 - Arlington Detached homes sold: 98Attached homes sold: 25Condos sold: 109 (47%)Since condos generally sell for much less than do SFHs in Arlington (due primarily to the cost of land? size?), the fact that they comprised a smaller proportion of the total in 2008 than in 2007 may partially account for why the median price didn't drop more than it did.
Zero.Zero look only at sales figures (Total units sold). For example you wrote"22314Average Sold Price: $ 716,774 - $ 617,302 +16.11 %Median Sold Price: $ 572,000 - $ 557,750 +2.55 %Total Units Sold: 59 - 68"This makes it look like Total Units Sold ROSE from 59-68. It didnt. Total units sold FELL from 68 to 59. Everything else is correct.
ace,good point, very very interesting.zeropointzerothanks for the specific link, previously I had assumes I needed to get a login to see the data, but I didn't from that point.
betty mcdaniel can't buy a home with the nehemiah program.http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=226&sid=1418100
CRT - I get you. Perhaps I should have been more specific that the # of sales figure was also listed 2008 first, 2007 second (just like the prices).
CRT, maybe I should stay out of this, but I don't see the problem you're having with the #s that zeropointzero posted. The first number of Total Units Sold is 2008; the second is 2007, just as with the price #s. This pattern is consistent throughout his #s. ZPZ didn't reverse anything.
Zero.Zero & Ace - I just looked at it again - sorry, you had it right in the first place. I dont know what I was thinking when I first looked at it. Ignore my prior comment please. MM - FYI, your comment last week about increased activity in N. Arlington. I suggested if true we may see it in July contracts and contintents (C&C). Turns out you were right. Arlington has 244 C&C versus 235 July of last year.That said, Arlington had 235 sales last August. Meaning about 96% of the C&C must be booked next month in order to beat YOY sales numbers. In the past few months only about 90% of arlington C&C have become sales, so I doubt Arlington will beat YOY sales next month. Still, this is not too dissimilar from what we found in the outer counties 3-4 months ago - just before their YOY sales increased. This is the first time in at least 13 months that C&C has increased for any of the inner counties - perhaps this is something we should watch in the next few months.
basYikes, it hadn't sunk in that the DAP doesn't die until January. It was a lot funnier when I misread the paragraph:"She admits she is bitter that people caught up in the foreclosure mess are getting all the help - instead of someone who refuses to go beyond her means."dropping the "refuses to" since if she absolutely has to use this program in order to buy, she can't afford to buy. It's possible in this area that she also can't afford to rent, but that's beside the point.
Will there be a "decade of sales" post this month?
Wait until the fall seasonal crash. I can't wait to see how they (NAR) try to spin that. The Fall and winter will be scary... tight credit and seasonally low demand.Harriet,Calculated risk has an interesting Wapo article worth blogging for you:http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/08/cre-deals-for-office-buildings-decline.htmlGot Popcorn?Neil
Manassas freefall:20111Average Sold Price: -50%Median sold Price: -56%Average list price for solds: -50%Avg Sale Price as a percentage of Avg List Price: 89.27 % 89.71 % BUT sales up 264%
We are moving in NOVA and renting and will pay reasonable price.we are just amazed how prices more than doubled between 2001-2005. Well, no one is getting our hard earned money for the bubble prices. They have to come down with same propotion to 100+%. Sooner they come down the better it is for all of us....
BAS,Betty Mcdaniel can't buy a home with the Nehemiah program.That was interesting, but curious. (Of course, WTOP is like that). FHA only requires 3% down. Places like ING require 10% down. Our credit union doesn't ask for 20%, but more like 10% (they said they'd add on more for a "declining market", which most places are).So when WTOP throws out there "she can't afford to pay the needed 20 percent down on a home" . . . what do you all think?
I think her intent was to do it the 'old way'...and not get in an ARM.I know I'm working to 20%.. I don't want to pay PMI myself..or get into an ARM.but with all the restrictions these days, I might be unqualified for a pricey place. :(
Harriet,I think the implication was that 20% down offers were being viewed as firm ones where the financing won't fall through just from a poor appraisal because there's MI to fall back on if need be. But that also appeared to just be her interpretation of what's happening, not necessarily what occured.I'm confused as to why she doesn't qualify for FHA. A friend of mine's little sister will be closing in September on an REO in Cape Cod, MA with a 3% down FHA, even though they still own another house in western MA that they're renting out (for $150 /month less than their mortgage). So there must not be a first time buyer clause to it...
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