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From the weekend Bits Bucket discussion, hat tip KeithK for mentioning a way to beat the $100,000 FDIC limit at your bank: CDARS®.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/21/2008
Posted by Harriet at 6:00 AM
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29 comments:
Arlington arlington arlington... is it that bad? Anything to stop the bleeding eh?..
http://www.nbc4.com/news/16935703/detail.html
Arlington County leaders on Saturday approved a plan that would allow homeowners to rent out rooms in their homes.
But many homeowners don't like the idea, saying it could cause neighborhood overcrowding. The planning commission also opposed the plan.
But supporters said the plan could create more affordable housing in the county.
I dont know about that but inventory is down everywhere.
I had a meeting with my Realtor this weekend, he says right now he is seeing 2x the home sale activity of last year at this time.
Prices are definitely at the area where people are willing to take the risk and jump in.
I've read this blog for awhile and really like it. I just moved to Arlington a month ago from around Warrenton, VA. I lived there for 3 years and loved it, it's beautiful out there. I had to move because the commute to Arlington was killing me. One thing that seems odd to me is the apparently high demand for places in Arlington and the perception that it's a nice place to live amongst the Northern Virginians. It's way too overcrowded, traffic is horrible, pollution, etc. I could go on and on about it's shortcomings but will stop myself. The thing I keep wondering is what people like about this area is it the proximity to the workplace?
Doug said...
I dont know about that but inventory is down everywhere.
I had a meeting with my Realtor this weekend, he says right now he is seeing 2x the home sale activity of last year at this time.
Prices are definitely at the area where people are willing to take the risk and jump in.
Forgive me for questioning your Realtor's (tm) veracity, but anytime someone says something is happening everywhere and that something has risen 200% red flags go up. The numbers just don't seem to support these claims.
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6822019
anyone wanna go check out this place tonight? code 0922 let's you in. dont even need an agent. that was easy. they should do this with more properties, i'd check many more out if i could just print the code out without talking to anyone
Here's an article on the best places for jobs via cnn.com.
Loudoun comes in at #4 and PWC at #23.
http://tinyurl.com/6exyqr
Grumman, I am not sure why you moved to Arlington; there are many communities nearer to it than Warrenton, and if you work in Arl., you must have been familiar before moving with the things you now say you don't like about it. So if you're renting you might move again once your lease is up to a place that is a blend of what you liked about Warrenton but is a shorter commute.
As for what others like about Arl., I'm not sure that the traffic is any worse (in fact, in many ways it is far better; AVOIDING NoVA traffic such as that from Warrenton is a major reason people who buy or rent in Arl. put up with its shortcomings and high costs). Having more time to live, rather than simply work, drive and drop exhausted into your bed at night only to wake up the next day and do it all over again is important. How is pollution any worse in Arl. than the rest of the nearby area? As for crowded; yes, that's what comes with being near an urban area vs. Warrenton, which is more rural.
What do people like? Besides the proximity which is #1 for me:
--The nice single family neighborhoods with well-educated, generally considerate, and helpful neighbors.
--For those with school-age kids, the high quality school system and relatively low taxes to fund it (because there are so many people without kids and businesses paying for them as well)
--A generally well-run county; trash picked up on time, responsive police
--The stores you frequent are nearby (unlike in many parts of the District where you have to drive to VA to shop, even for groceries, and unlike outer areas where you might have fewer choices and longer drive times)
--You can find lots of people nearby who share your hobbies (e.g., easy to find people to play tennis with).
Those are just a few examples.
"The Nothing" wrote: "anything to stop the bleeding, eh?..."
Nothing, the "auxiliary dwelling unit" proposal by Arlington County Board Chairman Walter Tejada has nothing to do with the housing bubble collapse affecting most places in the region; Tejada claims the proposal will make it easier for aged homeowners to provide live-in help to allow the homeowners to "age in place" in their own homes. Tejada says Arlington housing prices are too high for such service workers to live in the county, and these "dwelling units," he hopes, will make it more affordable for them.
Since many of you out there are looking to buy, you might want to check out this site before you make an offer:
http://www.familywatchdog.us
You can enter an address and it'll bring up a map of all the registered sex offenders in the area. I'm pretty sure sellers are not obligated to tell you if a registered offender lives in the neighborhood. I don't know how complete their database is, but it's better than nothing.
It's also a good site if you're looking for a new rental. I think this is something many people overlook when they're checking out a new house, so i thought i would post it.
hog
Grumman wrote "I had to move because the commute to Arlington was killing me."
Bingo, Grumman. Although you don't seem to like Arlington much, the reason you moved there is precisely one of the reasons why housing values for homeowners in Metro-accessible neighborhoods in N. Arlington are doing just fine.
"I had a meeting with my Realtor this weekend, he says right now he is seeing 2x the home sale activity of last year at this time."
I bet we will see this reflected in the next set of monthly sales data...
“Bingo, Grumman. Although you don't seem to like Arlington much, the reason you moved there is precisely one of the reasons why housing values for homeowners in Metro-accessible neighborhoods in N. Arlington are doing just fine.”
Which zips?
Got it. It's mostly the proximity to work. I find it pretty repulsive here, moved to Arlington because the long commute and absolutely no life during the week which inflamed an old back problem. I wanted something very close to work so that I wouldn't have to spend eternity in a vehicle in traffic. I have a one year lease maybe I'll get used to it up here but I doubt it. One year to make up my mind to move back to the house I still own in PA or to a more livable area of VA. I almost @#$% myself when I saw the condos around where I work going for $400K-$700K with condo fees of $300-$550/mo. For a little tiny box with a great view of the ugly city of Arlington. I'll never understand it.
Robert wrote: "Which zips?"
Check out 22207, Robert. Again, not the entire zip code: I'm talking specifically of neighborhoods within walking distance of Metrorail.
I am fortunate to both live and work in Warrenton-I cannot imagine commuting to Arlington every day. I lived there 20 years ago-I would never want to have to go back. Surprisingly the prices on "non-McMcmansion" properties here around Warrenton have not gone down too much here much to my dismay, as I am looking to buy a "unique" property.
bay400 it's much worse. I used Warrenton as a reference that people would know. I actually lived 25 miles further out in a town called Rixeyville. Very nice out there but a commute from he!!.
"Tom said...
Check out 22207, Robert. Again, not the entire zip code: I'm talking specifically of neighborhoods within walking distance of Metrorail."
are you referring to the few blocks northeast of East Falls Church station? but there're just not many houses there.
don't think Ballston is anywhere near 22207.
Tom, I don't think the data support you for any of the neighborhoods in Arlington. Both sales volume and median prices of sold houses are down. Some sellers are still clinging to prices that no one has been willing to pay for months, and other sellers have pulled houses off the market. For the best evidence, you might call a Realtor and say you're considering putting your house on the market, and request a CMA. I'll bet you a renovated bathroom that any Realtor who has sold anything within the past year will preface his/her CMA presentation by telling you you can't expect to get anything close to what your neighbors got when they sold in 2005.
The metros are in zips 22209, 22205, 22203, 22201 and 22202. Exactly which neighborhoods in 22207 do you consider within walking distance of metro?
I see the discussion about the "immune" areas continues. Anyone who has been following the San Fran area market knows that the same debate had been ongoing. But the data now reflects that even the desirable parts of the San Fran area are getting hit. Money quote from a recent SF Gate article (BTW, I'm having problems getting tiny URL to work on Firefox 3.0.1):
"This is pretty grim; double digits across the board," said Christopher Thornberg, principal at Los Angeles' Beacon Economics. "It was eminently predictable if you had a realistic view of the world. I heard a lot of people say the Bay Area was never going to see prices fall, San Francisco was untouchable; in San Mateo, it was impossible; San Jose, not with all the tech money, blah, blah, blah. But prices at the peak relative to people's incomes never made any sense."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/18/MN6711QRVS.DTL
Grumman--
Oh my--You did live WAY OUT! One of the reasons I am having so much trouble finding property is that I don't want to be more than a couple of miles outside the town limits of Warrenton.
I cannot imagine the commute you used to do!
Tom said...
Check out 22207, Robert. Again, not the entire zip code: I'm talking specifically of neighborhoods within walking distance of Metrorail.
Zip 22207 for June 08:
MRIS shows
Sales: -52%
Avg Sold price: -13%
Meadian Sold price: -8%
Units Sold: -45%
Avg DOM: -11%
Avg List price for solds: -13%
Now Tom, what sort of gerrymandering would you like to do to make the numbers work? Once drawn up, can we then stick to those parcels for future reference so that we may see any trends?
"Forgive me for questioning your Realtor's (tm) veracity, but anytime someone says something is happening everywhere and that something has risen 200% red flags go up. The numbers just don't seem to support these claims."
Well, last year there was a net gain in housing inventory of 1553 homes between May and June.
This year there is a drop by 513.
So, looks like you are wrong, again, and that the numbers do agree with what I was told.
Doug said...
Well, last year there was a net gain in housing inventory of 1553 homes between May and June.
This year there is a drop by 513.
So, looks like you are wrong, again, and that the numbers do agree with what I was told.
A drop in inventory is not always a direct correlation to sales. Better still, just post the MRIS data that shows 2x YOY sales.
MM, I live in 22207, five blocks from the Ballston Metro. I think the zip actually ends at the intersection of 66 and glebe, but may go a block or two further up. The zip at the Ballston station / Ballston mall and skating rink is 22203.
Grumman, my wife and I like Arlington because we can live in an old house with nice restaurants and theaters a 15 minute walk away. You can live high density if you want in one of the Ballston hives, but you can also move just a couple of blocks out and have a suburban lifestyle.
Traffic, yeah, it can be bad, but nothing as painful as Fairfax or Falls Church. Having access to 66 and arranging your travel hours (if possible) to avoid the HOV restrictions can help a lot.
Having said that: You couldn't pay me to live in Clarendon, a traffic and parking nightmare. But it's nice being able to walk there. My wife and I rented a place at the Courthouse metro station for a year that was very well placed in terms of hopping on and off route 50.
Hope this helps.
"Gruntled said...
MM, I live in 22207, five blocks from the Ballston Metro. I think the zip actually ends at the intersection of 66 and glebe, but may go a block or two further up."
thanks Gruntled. i never thought the neighborhoods above 66 were walkable to Ballston. i learn something new everyday! i personally feel 15-min walk is the limit to be 'walkable' to metro. but i think it's doable from as north as 17th st. (0.7 mi according to google)
that must be where tom lives... i'm stalking you tom! j/k.
"A drop in inventory is not always a direct correlation to sales. Better still, just post the MRIS data that shows 2x YOY sales."
Obviously "activity" includes houses being pulled from the market... must make his realtor friend happy.
(you just, just how market "activity" spikes late every winter...)
I live North of 66 in 22205 and walk to Ballston in 10 minutes in flats, 15 in heals. There is a bike path that crosses over 66 in a few places so when looking, be sure to "walk the walk" as places that look like a 15 min. walk may be less or more given the route available on foot. While looking, we walked from a couple of houses to both E and W falls church that, on the map, look really close, but in actuality are not.
Leroy said...
Obviously "activity" includes houses being pulled from the market... must make his realtor friend happy.
I wonder if his realtor counts foreclosures as “activity”?
The real shame is that some people probably believed the realtor. I complained about this a couple threads down. Too many of them make a habit of lying. I would never work with someone that I knew would casually lie to me.
For the last couple years a good half of the realtors I have spoken to in open houses and so forth have given me some version of this one's lie. "Oh things are really picking up now! I have been really busy lately!"
Then of course the sales numbers come out... maybe a few of them really had had some sales recently, but there is just no way they were all telling the truth.
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