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Here's some new information about June sales in Culpeper County, where there was an 84% increase in sales over the prior year:
On her blog, Real Estate Agent Julie Emery pointed out that 38 out of the 57 sales were foreclosures (over 2/3), and with 10 of those foreclosure sales, the price was 48.8% lower than the prior sales price. She provides a few pictures of the houses that sold in June under those conditions.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/18/2008
Posted by Harriet at 6:00 AM
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18 comments:
A home i was tracking is no longer in MRIS database. RedFin says the listing has gone off the market.
"The most recent listing for this property has gone off the market.
2709 N Greenbrier St Arlington, VA 22207"
I swing by the other day and was surprised to see workers installing a new front yard and back yard and new landscaping. It was a short sale, so I doubt the owner suddenly got cash to fix it up; but there's no sales record either. Could it be that it's now being foreclosed, and the bank's fixing it up? I doubt that too.
What's happening?! I'm so eager to find out.
mm, looks like the house went under contract on 6/16.
Banks dont really fix up foreclosures, they just cut the price.
I have a question for everyone who agrees that there are a lot of "sticky price" sellers in Arlington, Alexandria City, etc. When do you think they will finally "get" that these areas are not immune from price pressures, and when will prices in general start coming down significantly (if ever)? Yes, some sellers have already dropped prices, and their houses sold. So I am talking about the holdouts (the majority of homes that have been on the market 30+ days and those taken off the market but whose sellers want to put them back on again).
"John Fontain said...
mm, looks like the house went under contract on 6/16."
Thanks JF. I somehow missed that. Oh well, one less house to stalk on...
ace: i don't those sellers will ever get it, until they absolutely have to unload the home. i think newer sellers are more realistic than sellers whose homes are on market 90+ days. there won't be a sudden big drop because very few are distressed homes, those who don't have to unload it will just sit it out.
Ace - the answer for some is never. Take a look at this place
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=22314&typ=7&sid=6703b6fbeb7a46c184183397aff202dd&pg=22&lid=1088506341&lsn=220&srcnt=265#Detail
This place has been on and off the market for 10 years now!!! An agent once told me the family has owned this place for 110 years (now 115), and could care less about when they sell it, if ever.
The place could be awesome, but it is on route 1, and really needs a ton of work. They sellers will eventually get their price. They have been asking 1MM for years now - eventually inflation will catch up to their price.
This is not typical to be sure, but my point is, dont get your heart set on one particular place. Some sellers will either get their price or will stay there forever.
Ace-- I think we'll see the same thing there as elsewhere-- prices will be very sticky until there is enough short sale and foreclosure activity to make some banks willing to take significant haircuts. That will bring about the first major leg down. I continue to think that the Alt-A resets is what will bring that about-- and most of those are 5 year fixed rates, so they won't start in significant numbers for another year or two.
Another factor is that these are generally higher income people than those who took subprime loans. They are likely to have more resources to go through before they have to really face the music. I expect a fair number will do financially ill-advised things like running through their 401K savings before finally capitulating.
The anonymous,
That's amazing!
This year, they have "come down" about $208000. Maybe when some of that traffic calms down or 70 year old decorating comes back into style, they'll price it to sell :-).
oops, meant to post the url:
http://franklymls.com/default.aspx?m=R&h=ALL&s=211+patrick
mm, I think so too, but I don't know why they think waiting will bring them a higher price than they could have gotten to this point. Some of them (in the higher ranges) are new builds that the builders still own. Don't they read the papers? And they don't have unlimited funds - many have probably borrowed on spec. How long can/should they hold out?
Sarah, I'm not sure how many alt-a's are in Arlington and Alexandria City or what proportion would be at risk. I don't see many more foreclosures (as a % of all sales in these areas) in the future, than what we're now seeing. But it wouldn't be the first time my prediction is wrong.
Ace - actually I stand corrected. It looks like the owner DIED and now the heirs are trying to sell it. Perhaps this means this time it really will sell : )
As to ALT A's there were 1300 adjustable in Arlington and 1000 in Alexandria. There are about 850 in Arlington left to adjust, and about 650 left in Alexandria. In each area, it looks like 100 or so adjust every year for the next 5 years.
I agree with you as to the pressure they will have on prices - basically because there were so few Alt A's to begin with, they wont come out quick enough or have enough "oomph" to cause a greater percent of foreclosures than we are seeing now.
As I see it, the best way to get a big drop is with job losses or jumps in interest rates. Either of these happen and I think you see a whole new wave of downpricing, starting close in and working its way out. I guess we shall see...
ace
In the area I'm looking,i.e. cheap townhouses in Franconia Springfield and the like, today's redfin email just brought a slew of capitulation. $350k in March down to $265k, new listing by a bank at $230 when all the rest are up near $285 and not moving, a 4 bedroom house bought for $300k in a good location (though tiny lot and my least favorite house style, split foyer 1970) at only 5.7% appreciation from it's 1995 sale, down in the $250's. So, it's possible that some considerable capitulation will happen this very month as sellers realize the summer selling season is ending and no bites have come in.
But that's Franconia/ Springfield. I think it will need to start virally in a neighborhood, and in Alexandria City / Arlington the near-in Franconia is dogsville and irrelevant. But who knows, seriously it may be just a couple more weeks!
Ace,
I don't have an answer to your question as to when sellers will "get it," but it will happen. As I've said before, sales are way down and the number of contingent contracts has risen steadily; the stare down is in place and the number of willing buyers continues to thin. Eventually, sellers who must sell will either lower their prices or be foreclosed upon; the remaining sellers will then get it.
In this regard, I ran across the attached article concerning the SF Bay area. I see a similar pattern emerging there as well: the areas where prices have corrected the most are seeing year over year sales increases while the areas where prices are down the least are seeing the slowest sales. This is not unlike what is currently occurring in PWC.
http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_9917365
Prices will eventually reach a bottom. Are we there yet? It makes sense to buy when there is "blood in the streets." Is now a good time to buy?
Ace-- There don't need to be a whole lot of short sales or foreclosures-- just a certain critical mass, to convince people that prices really are going down. CRT has said in the past that there don't appear to be that many. I don't know, but I'm betting there will be 'enough'. This is mainly based on the fact that my low six figure earning brother-in-law was 'qualified' for an $800,000 home when he and my sister were looking in 2005. They bought for less than half that in the end, but he was an experienced home owner who'd been badly burned before in a previous housing downturn when he had to move due to a divorce.
Of course many of the people in older, established neighborhoods have been there for a long time, so they don't have to sell if they don't like the price. However, once the newer owners who bought way beyond their ability to afford start defaulting, getting out with 'only' one or two hundred thousand dollars profit probably won't look so bad to some of these people. Also, of course, a certain percentage will have taken out large HELOC's, leaving them in a similar position to the newer owners.
The fact that there have been few foreclosures to date is pretty much what I'd expect. The ones we are seeing now are the subprime NINJA loans taken by people who, if they could afford to own at all, should have been buying a condo in Dale City or something. I don't expect many people who don't actually have to sell now to be in the market.
The anonymous, Cara, Terminator-x, Remy and Sarah,
Thanks for your replies. It will be interesting to watch this continue to unfold once the fall selling season begins.
Sarah, I was "burned" once like your brother. There's nothing like living a reality that tends never to be mentioned in the mainstream media to make a person much more cautious (and interested in gathering a lot more data) with future RE buying decisions! re: "I don't expect many people who don't actually have to sell now to be in the market" that's one of my strongest beliefs about why the Arl./Alex. C. inventory has been so low for several months. It's not so much that people are waiting for prices to go up (although I'm sure some are) as they are nervous about all the risks and uncertainty in the current market.
The Anonymous said... the owner died...
did the owner die IN THE HOUSE? just wondering...
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