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Thursday, July 10, 2008
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34 comments:
Here's a bank owned single-family within easy walking distance of the Ballston metro.
Previously sale on 7/24/06 for $610,000. Be interesting to see if this sells quickly or not.
Here's another one: 3720 Pershing Dr.
Last sale 2/28/06 for $607,900. So it looks like the bank-owned properties are being offered at about $100,000 discount off of the peak price. If they sell quickly I think this will be evidence in favor of crt's low inventory theory. If not, in a few months I expect we'll see the same kind of drastic reductions beginning in Arlington that we saw last fall in Montgomery Co.
In contrast to Sarah's useful listing here we have some pure housing bubble bursting pain.
New development, still unfinished by the time of the google overhead pic.
One listing new $939,000, one as far as I can tell identical listing current price $599,000 . The latter a short sale AND Contingent KO.
Pain at the high end in the next to metro near suburbs (albeit, yes not Alexandria or Arlington...)
Take a gander for your daily dose of schadenfreude.
http://www.redfin.com/VA/ALEXANDRIA/6380-VICTOR-GRAY-Ct-22315/home/12072397
Price: $939,000
http://www.redfin.com/VA/ALEXANDRIA/7202-GRAY-HEIGHTS-Ct-22315/home/12261634
Listing Price History
Date Price
Oct 17, 2007 $995,000
Dec 05, 2007 $870,000
Dec 28, 2007 $699,000
Mar 19, 2008 $599,900
You'll notice neither has painted a single room in their supposedly million dollar houses. Both have IKEA furniture, and $30 Bed Bath and Beyond curtains (where they have curtains) (I know that one because I picked the same ones for my apartment). These people cannot afford these homes. Not at these prices. Though, who wants to pay over $800k on a new home and not have any say in how it's built, is beyond me anyway.
I found these when I was looking at the tiny 1970's townhouses next door and saw the big construction zone, so I wanted to check out what they were.
sorry, here as clickable links:
$599k short sale KO
$939k WTF price
There was a front-page article about the decline of the Hispanic population in PWC in the Post today, and it stated there were 776foreclosures in PWC in June.
I am still unpacking from our move, so I do not have my real estate folder handy, but I did manage to find these numbers in old Post articles:
December 2007: 862
February 2008: 306
March 2008: 1,497
April 2008: 645
May 2008: 797
June 2008: 776
I still think the Post got it wrong for March somehow. Maybe that was the number of foreclosures for all of 2008 so far, which would make much more sense. But in any case, I think these numbers prove things are getting worse here, not better, not even slowing down, especially when you compare the numbers to last year. Two examples:
February
2008 306
2007 140
June
2008 776
2007 244
2006 19
So the foreclosure rate has been accelerating YOY, from more than double to three times as many.
More than one Post article has also cited the approximately 7000 vacant homes in the county.
So yes, people are buying this year more than last year, but there's just too much inventory, and more coming.
Looking forward to the June numbers today...
Cara: I remember that Gray Heights house -- it must have been on the market forever. What always stood out for me was the stupid picture of the street signs in the listing.
cara:
i think gray height court one has been cntg/ko for a while.
i remember looking at that one back in march. it's too far away for my legs to bike to DC every day.
http://www.redfin.com/VA/ALEXANDRIA/7202-GRAY-HEIGHTS-Ct-22315/home/12261634
Listing Price History
Date Price
Oct 17, 2007 $995,000
Dec 05, 2007 $870,000
Dec 28, 2007 $699,000
Mar 19, 2008 $599,900
Oh ugh. Brick front, bathroom cabinets that look like cheaper versions of the home depot stuff we bought for our townhouse. Postage stamp lots-- (although I do think they made just a teeny mistake with this: Sq. Ft.: 5,250 Lot Size: 4,957 Sq. Ft. House bigger than the lot? I don't even think the evil geniuses who brought us mcmansions can manage that...)
Oh and granite and stainless steel of course. Don't even get me started on that. You'd have to pull crt's trick of taking my family hostage and paying me a billion dollars to get me to live with one of those kitchens. I tried it for a week at the beach last year. The black granite is the worst. You can stand there polishing it all day and the minute you turn your head or the light changes you'll still see streaks and smudges all over the stuff.
Thanks, Cara. I must say this does make even the shabbiest parts of Arlington look amazingly attractive...
Novawatcher,
I know that cracked me up. Yes, it's near Beulah! Big whoop-dee-doo!
BAS,
It is indeed too far to bike, but it's the closest supposedly high end development near the Franconia Springfield Metro, so not bad for a lot of folks. (well there are true custom mega homes with real yards slightly closer, but they're a lot more money and not for sale)
sarah,
good find on both. i especially like the first one because it's close to park, activity center, and the grade school. if i had to guess i'd say the first will sell before the second home.
but they're both about 1 mile to ballston so not a short walk i don't think. but doable.
MM,
The first is 0.7 according to google maps if you drag it to the shortest route.
The second one is almost exactly 1.0 miles, with multiple route choices.
At a 15 minute mile, leisurely stroll, that doesn't even provide you're daily recommended 30 minutes of exercise (which is supposed to be continuous anyway).
At my insane commuter walking pace I could get the first one down to 10 minutes, but I think the second house is cuter. Though still beyond my budget.
June price data:
NoVA: -15.1% (YoY median*)
Alexandria: -9.3%
Arlington: -14.6%
Fairfax: -15.8%
Loudoun: -17.5%
Manassas: -50.5%
Montgomery: -5.3%
Prince Georges: -13.1%
Prince William: -34.2%
DC proper: +2.4%
This doesn't square with Tom's claim of no weakness in north Arlington:
June 2008 medians:
22207: -8.1%
22201: -17.9
PWC June sales
2008 - 834
2007 - 456
Up 82.89%
cara,
agree 2nd home is cuter. 1st home is just, well, bland. and it's across from an apt complex so there's that.
and 2nd home is closer to va sq (.5-mi) then ballston. so definitely a plus. but truth be told i'm not comfortable with what i see on that stretch of glebe rd on weekends.
here's the only short sale in 22207 according to frankly. very nice home to my standard but way beyond my price range.
i can't help but wonder though what happened to the owners for them to go this route.
WOW! DRASTIC REDUCTION $150,000 LESS FOR QUICK SALE.
"Contrarian said...
But then, What do Poole and CR know? They're just a couple of doom and gloomers too."
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Thursday that U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "adequately capitalized" in the face of a "challenging period."
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=...& action=article
But again, what does Paulson know, hes just a pollyanna too.
Contrarian, dont take offense but like I said before, you got different perspectives both trying to interpret reality. As is almost always the case neither of them is probably right. Its almost always somewhere in between the 2 extremes.
New census estimates out. Alexandria (9.1%) and Arlington (8%) show solid, unspectacular growth from 2000-2007. Arlington is better in the one-year 2006-07 trend. Enjoy.
Census Tables
Sarah, most of the time, the listings include all finished square feet (sometimes even garage space), usually on 3 floors. So, if you divided the 5250 by 3, you'll get a "footprint" of about 1750 sq. ft. on a 5000 sq. ft. lot.
Still too much house for the lot, IMHO. Might as well buy a nicer townhome instead.
Thanks, John F. Looks as if my neighbors and Realtors were right on the money when they estimated 15% decline (although they were comparing to peak rather than June 07).
ace said...the listings include all finished square feet (sometimes even garage space), usually on 3 floors
Of course... [slaps forehead]. I just looked at that monster and how close it was to the next house and thought, "Yeah, it almost looks like the house is bigger than the lot..."
"New census estimates out. Alexandria (9.1%) and Arlington (8%) show solid, unspectacular growth from 2000-2007. Arlington is better in the one-year 2006-07 trend. Enjoy."
Recall too that like DC proper, there was a period 1970's to 1990 where population actually fell. Similar to the escape to the burbs mentality that DC and really all big cities experienced say 1950-2000. The fact that the population declines stopped, and that there is any population growth is part of the whole new paradigm thing the new urbanists are so high on.
Sarah, re: 3720 Pershing, there are very few bank-owned properties on the market in North Arlington, this one's on a busy street, and it is probably a disaster inside (notice the Realtor thought it better not to post any interior photos!). Not too typical of this area. So I am not sure how much to read into either a quick sale or a slow one. But time will tell!
sorry, I deleted 2 duplicate posts - don't know why they happened!
The Anonymous said:
"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Thursday that U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "adequately capitalized" in the face of a "challenging period."
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=...& action=article
But again, what does Paulson know, hes just a pollyanna too."
In fact...yes, he is. :)
He's in favor of a strong dollar too!
Several months ago I heard rumors going around that hedge funds had calculated that Freddie/Fannie were badly overextended (they have a *50*-1 leverage ratio -- that makes Bear Sterns look like a paragon of financial virtue) and they were shorting the stock while buying the bonds expecting a governmental buyout.
IF that really happens, Katie-bar-the-door, all bets are now off, we would be in seriously uncharted territory for housing *and* the dollar IMO.
Here's a house that fulfills one of my pet peeves...looking like a new listing when it's been for sale forever:
9090 PARK Ave
MANASSAS, VA 20110
Price: $648,876
DOMp/m: 301/2
Had been for sale for $650,000 this past year. But the most interesting thing is what the new listing begins with:
"VALUE RANGE PRICING: $559,000-$648,876 * * "
What the heck does that mean? Why would any realtor begin a description with such a thing, especially when the "range" starts so far below asking?
Blogger zeropointzero said...
New census estimates out. Alexandria (9.1%) and Arlington (8%) show solid, unspectacular growth from 2000-2007. Arlington is better in the one-year 2006-07 trend. Enjoy.
Umm, makes sense! Tons of new developments (apt buildings, etc) since 2000.
Tabitha: Realtors are stupid
Buy for $675k or rent for $2500/month: you make the call: http://www.franklymls.com/FX6809119
Tabitha-- I don't know why, but it's a common practice in California. Maybe some realtor's got the bright idea that if he uses California techniques he can get California prices... Of course those are dropping like a stone most places, so no, I don't think this is real 'light bulb' moment...
pass.
NOVA,
$2,500 per month = $30K per year = Asking price that's 22.5X rent. The DC area has averaged 16X rent over the past few decades, which would yield a purchase price of $480,000.
The asking price is way too high. Of course, the reason people weren't looking at price/rent ratios during the bubble is because they weren't valuing the unit as a renter would, i.e., valuing it as a place to live. There developed a "buyer's premium" that reflected the market's unrealistic expectation of future appreciation.
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