Blog reader Steve has started a poll of other readers here, and here are the contributions so far. Feel free to use the comment section to add your own predictions and I'll keep updating the list.
Question: When will DC Metropolitan Area house prices rebound?
We'll define a rebound as 2 quarters of positive growth in the median DC Metropolitan Area single-family house price.
Prices will be taken from the National Association of Realtors® website.
Also, note the poll on the right-hand column of this blog. It's not as specific (in referring to quarters) but it'll be interesting to see everyone's responses at the end of the week.
I unscientifically polled a real estate agent at an open house today (we had time to chat since I was the one and only visitor). Her prediction was that prices would rebound in June 2008. I tried to talk about Option ARMs recasting and perhaps adding a new wrinkle to the housing market, but she was sure "we were done" with foreclosures.
Also relevant to the topic of what's in store for the coming months is an article from Forbes posted in the weekend Bits Bucket by Zerodown. The lending industry is seeing a higher correlation between higher loan-to-value ratio and the likelihood of default. "[R]elatively affluent borrowers might not stick around once their equity turns negative, potentially beginning a vicious circle of home abandonments that push down prices and encourage new defaults".
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Reader Poll
Posted by Harriet at 10:33 PM
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92 comments:
(The DC MSA includes about 30 square miles around DC).
Check that factoid.
The 10x10 diamond of the original District, which includes Arlington and Alexandria, is 100 square miles
1. Pay-option ARMs;
2. Alt A; and
3. Don’t forget HELOCs
http://tinyurl.com/6fms4t
http://tinyurl.com/5d7hl9
http://tinyurl.com/5nn7om
Personally I don't think we are going to see anything like a "rebound" at all.
People still seem to think that the market will resemble something like a big V or maybe a big U... but it is much more likely to remain stagnant for a long period of time.
During that time you may very well see two quarters of prices rising slightly, satisfying this poll, only to see prices fall again.
Thanks KH.
Sorry 30 mile diameter.
(poll looks great, hariet)
As for the rebound, as I see it happening...
3 more quarters of close to double digit drops in the median DC metro house price. Then 1 flat quarter then 2 increasing quarters of maybe1 or 2 % growth. But nothing ever like we saw in 2003 - 2006.
CRT,
More food for thought. This idea popped up on the other thread so I figured I'd try to get my arms around it.
Can the average age of a neighborhood be related to the average equity in a neighborhood?
Let's say the average age of homes in north Arlington is 25 years. Versus the average age of homes in Loudon which is maybe 5 years.
After 25 years of payments, the average equity in a home is much greater (around 70%?). At 5 years I would suspect we are around 10% on average.
Perhaps age of the neighborhood then could help explain the variation in the number of foreclosures when you account for differences in total number of residences?
My $0.02
Steve said...
"Sorry 30 mile diameter."
So, you're talking about a 15 mile radius? i.e., 15 miles in any direction from the center of DC.
or did you mean a 30 mile radius ... i.e. as far to the west as Gainesville and to the western edge of Baltimore to the northeast .. ?
mytwocents said:
"After 25 years of payments, the average equity in a home is much greater (around 70%?). At 5 years I would suspect we are around 10% on average."
I don't think you're going to be able to go down the road you're going. For starters, people sell and new people buy ... starting the clock over. People refinance some or all of their equity ... starting the clock over ... for some or all of the equity. Houses get added on to, kitchens and baths get redone, etc.
And as probably more importantly, very little of one's equity actually comes from "paying down the mortgage", the vast majority of it comes from the home increasing in nominal value both due to the effects of inflation (time value of money) and do to the real accretion of value as neighborhoods become established and the demand for them grows ... while at the same time, the supply of homes they have to offer for sale at any given time deminshes.
I.e., Your assumptions about "paying off", won't account for much of the equity ... even if you could control for all the variable situations I first mentioned.
Lance,
The Washington MSA includes Fauquier, I think.
The specifics of the MSA are whatever the NAR says it is, anyway, and we are just going by those numbers.
My $0.02,
Very good questions. I'll keep my eye open for any research on the topic of equity in older vs. newer neighborhoods.
Harriet said...
"Lance,
The Washington MSA includes Fauquier, I think.
The specifics of the MSA are whatever the NAR says it is, anyway, and we are just going by those numbers."
Thanks Harriet. Actually, the Washington MSA doesn't include Fauquier ... it's the pre-93 stat area. Today the feds are using a something called a PMSA.
http://tiny.cc/XQ3XG
The NAR is referring to code 47900 from the US Office of Management and Budget:
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
Metropolitan Statistical Area
47900
Bethesda-Gaithersburg-Frederick, MD Metropolitan Division
Frederick County, MD
Montgomery County, MD
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division
District of Columbia, DC
Calvert County, MD
Charles County, MD
Prince George's County, MD
Arlington County, VA
Clarke County, VA
Fairfax County, VA
Fauquier County, VA
Loudoun County, VA
Prince William County, VA
Spotsylvania County, VA
Stafford County, VA
Warren County, VA
Alexandria city, VA
Fairfax city, VA
Falls Church city, VA
Fredericksburg city, VA
Manassas city, VA
Manassas Park city, VA
Jefferson County, WV
mytwocents: looking past equity, the mortgage payment is also likely to be much cheaper. Afterall, the mortgage on a $350k* house (the price 10 years ago) is going to be a lot less than an $800k house (bought 2 years ago). That in and of itself would increase the likelihood of default (since incomes haven't increased that much).
*especially if they refinanced to a lower fixed rate in 2002-4.
Mytwocents...
"Perhaps age of the neighborhood then could help explain the variation in the number of foreclosures when you account for differences in total number of residences?"
I think that is correct - in fact it has me rethinking my earlier position (foreclosures necessarily equals flippers). Novawatcher picked up on the same thing.
The fact of the matter is, if a housing development is only a few years old - there is a good chance the majority of homeowners are underwater. As such a larger percentage of them could be losing their homes to foreclosure than in older established neighborhoods.
I think this is true even when you account for housing ATM activity which would presumably affect close in and outer counties at the same rate. I think no matter how you slice it, the % of foreclosures in a newer neighborhood in a down market is always "more".
Now as to what exactly "more" is, is a difficult thing to answer. Certianly part of it is flippers. I think is pretty clear that there was a greater percentage speculative purchases in the outer counties than in the inner counties. However, the number of foreclosures due to a homeowner in a new development simply being underwater is certainly a big or perhaps even a major portion of the foreclosure discrepancies we are seeing.
"The fact of the matter is, if a housing development is only a few years old - there is a good chance the majority of homeowners are underwater."
More and more we are seeing reports that the single largest determinant of the likelihood of a homeowner defaulting is their equity in the house.
This is one of the major drivers towards higher down payments. The earlier assumption was that good credit was all that was necessary but in this bust that hasn't held true.
I think the extremely high level of foreclosures that are being seen out west are as much a cause of the declines as they are a symptom of the decline.
I know that N. Arlington, particularly in neighborhoods within walking distance of Metrorail, there simply hasn't been much of a decline in prices, if at all (though I recognize there are a few examples of individual properties that may show a small decline). So for that part of the Washington MSA, there's no point in predicting when it will "rebound;" it never went down!
Tom said:
"So for that part of the Washington MSA, there's no point in predicting when it will "rebound;" it never went down!"
Ditto here in DC ...
Leroy lives in a different world and is fooling himself into thinking that world is everywhere.
For those who need good data on INNER BELTWAY / DC pricing:
http://www.dchousingprices.com/
Harriet has this link as well!
"Ditto here in DC ... "
Right right lance... as usual you wishful thinking is not consistent with reality.
Large portions of DC are already down... the District as a whole is stagnant.
Honestly, who acts like "DC" is somehow similar to "the northern tip of Arlington within walking distance of the metro..."
Spunky,
Why post just the link? Why not state the bottom line:
"Average sales price: $ 582,266. Up 6.77%.
Median sales price: $ 438,000. Up 4.53%."
"Why post just the link? Why not state the bottom line"
As usual lance your extremely simplistic approach is misleading you. You continue to see what you want to see rather than the real picture.
Those numbers are badly skewed by the changing ratio of sales. Condos were 45% of sales this April as compared to 58% in 2007.
The result is that the median and average prices appear to be climbing...
At the very least you could have read the analysis that was provided to you by the blog's author.
"MRIS has released its data for sales of existing home sales in April 2008. Fewer units sold, lower dollar volume, condo prices down, single family home prices up. The severity of the downturn in the District is striking.
...
The downward trend that began in July continues."
Naturally you will probably just bury your head in the sand a little deeper and claim that DC isn't "feeling" the housing bust again...
Once again we see that most posters here have no actual sense of the reality of successful folks in the DC area. The bottom line truth is that essentially NO forward thinking yuppie (or any age) in the DC area would EVER default on a mortgage...everyone with an education in this town harbors a dream for a good gov job one day, and that comes with some combination of vetting, background investigation, clearance or congressional hearing, all of which is endangered by a default.
narl,
Leroy doesn't give 2 cents about vetting, clearance, etc. That doesn't exist in his world. In his world everyone making a median income for the area is owed a house because .... well ... because they are!
I don’t know enough about DC or N Arlington to comment on those areas. Falls Church City, however, is one of the areas I’ve been watching closely (currently own here). It’s a roughly 2.2 square mile area between the EFC and WFC metro stations, has top rated schools, and could be considered just as “desirable” as N. Arlington. In fact, some might consider it more desirable based on the reputation of the school system. Anyway, the trend in FC City since 2005 has clearly been down, and there’s virtually no foreclosure problem here that I’m aware of.
The Byron Sales 2006-2008
From bubblemeter: “…However, the price for this type of unit in this building has fallen 22.5% in nominal terms or about 183,000 dollars. In inflation adjusted terms this type of unit is down more than 25%. Falls Church is an inner suburb. The price per sq. foot has fallen from $446 to $345, or 22.5%...”
Pearson Square was converted to rentals because they couldn’t sell them for 2005 prices.
I’ve also seen some townhouse developments where the homes are now selling for about 15% less than 2005 prices.
SFH are tough to track since there’s a wide range ($400K - $1.5 mil). Additionally, the available inventory for all units (SFH, condo, TH) has been roughly 50-60 for the last few years, so using median/average price for all units might not be very useful. I’ve noticed SFH over $1 mil sitting for a while and some have had multiple price drops.
This is a very desirable location inside the beltway, bordered by two orange line metro stops. The trend appears to be down.
Feel free to tell me where I’m going wrong.
hog
"Leroy doesn't give 2 cents about vetting, clearance, etc. That doesn't exist in his world. In his world everyone making a median income for the area is owed a house because .... well ... because they are!"
Narl,
Lance once tripped an old lady down a flight of stairs!
Lance believes that elves have a secret monopoly on dairy farming in the upper mid-west!
Hey wow, lance isn't the only one that can make stuff up...
Lance: So, you're talking about a 15 mile radius? i.e., 15 miles in any direction from the center of DC.
I think he means a 30 mile radius.
15 miles doesn't get you to Reston.
Or is this the, NOVA-Inside the Beltway Blog?
Building on what Leroy said, I would imagine that condos close in would lead SFH prices. Throw in the substitution effect, and that eventually devalues SFHs.
BTW: I also have some analyses I could post for various zip codes showing that median and mean sales prices are horrible metrics. For example, for 20171, the median sale price dropped 4% for June 2005 to June 2007. But tracking repeat sales of SFH shows a 21% drop.
But, hey, that's parametrics for you.
narl said: "...everyone with an education in this town harbors a dream for a good gov job one day..."
This is quite a broad statement. I'll have to disagree.
Every educated person in this area wants a govt job; therefore, none of them will default on a mortgage? As a result, that will keep prices from falling? Is that what you're saying?
No disrespect...i'm just trying to understand what your point is.
hog
For the love of God, the last thing I want in a million years is a government job. I'm a fairly typical late-'20s yuppie, have seen the workings of the government, and the last thing I want any part of is being stuck working for the government. Some friends work for the government (active duty Army, local DAs, capitol hill), however they do it to either give back, they happen to love their job, or in some cases are political whores. However, for the most part nobody dreams of government work. Some people settle for the stability and fairly good paychecks, but most will take the ups and downs of the private sector any day of the week.
Just one guy's opinion.
Here are a group of sales from the Byron that are likely the same floor plan. (They all have exactly the same square footage and they are directly above one another.)
10/03/2006 404 808k $446/ft^2
10/19/2006 504 830k $458/ft^2
10/27/2006 704 853k $470/ft^2
12/20/2006 604 808k $446/ft^2
03/23/2007 204 797k $440/ft^2
02/29/2008 304 625k $345/ft^2
The way I see it a couple hundred thousand dollars is a pretty nice reward for a year or two of patience.
Naturally this must be some awful place nobody would ever want to live since by definition the good places never fall.
When will housing prices rebound? Try never. Peak Oil will see to that.
When gas tops $10.00 a gallon in a few years, the value of your house will be the LEAST of your worries.
Leroy said:
"10/03/2006 404 808k $446/ft^2
10/19/2006 504 830k $458/ft^2
10/27/2006 704 853k $470/ft^2
12/20/2006 604 808k $446/ft^2
03/23/2007 204 797k $440/ft^2
02/29/2008 304 625k $345/ft^2"
Presenting ONE single lower sale as "proof" that prices in this building AND THE ENTIRE AREA have fallen is anecdotal ... and not "proof".
Since you put it that way lance...
Here is another!
10/11/2006 411 468k $454/ft^2
10/18/2006 511 469k $455/ft^2
03/21/2007 311 439k $425/ft^2
04/29/2007 711 484k $469/ft^2
12/27/2007 611 378k $366/ft^2
Wow, wanna bet the owners of #711 and #511 are questioning their purchase in light of the "anecdote" between their units?
$100k off in less than two years...
Look at the data lance, or for that matter look at the graph someone was friendly enough to make for you.
http://tinyurl.com/5h47mh
The eight most recent sales were all well below any previous sale in the entire building in a $/ft^2 comparison and they show a clear downward trend...
This is more than a single isolated sale, especially in light of the vast amount of data we have on the amount of distress the market as a whole is in.
Naturally I expect you to find a way to just bury your head even deeper into the sand to avoid having to come to terms with this.
That or decide that Falls Church City is obviously a dump that nobody would live in given a choice...
Its obvious the conversation has moved past this now, but the two points I was trying to make (on this and the last thread) was that spculation and foreclosures were responsible for much of the discrepancy in price falls we have seen just far.
It just so happened that Yahoo's front page had a story about the declining housing markets. Interestingly, they also pointed towards speculation and foreclosures as being the prime movers thus far.
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/five-cities-with-biggest-decline-in-home-values.html
I liked this article on Yahoo!
http://realestate.yahoo.com/info/experts/homeowners-react-to-falling-real-estate-values
crt,
Just some quick thoughts.
There is always a small number of high-income earners willing to overpay for houses.
In a certain market environment, many others were willing to overpay. But under what conditions are they willing to continue to do so?
Note two facts--
1.Sales levels are significantly down in close-in areas while prices haven't dropped significantly.
2. Where higher sales activity is occurring in areas just outside the beltway, in most cases the prices have been cut to early 2004 levels; in a few REO sales, 2003 or even 2002 levels.
So what this shows is that the willingness of buyers to overpay for properties has declined sharply, but there are still people with the psychology to overpay. Arlington/DC's many promoters think that the number of such people will stay strong.
However, the sales activity shows that their numbers are dwindling. Their psychology is changing. It may be painfully slow for many who have been waiting to buy. But it is occurring nonetheless.
That is why I don't think simply looking at the prices and inventory/demand is enough to say there can't be significant price drops.
Sean, no offense but I am not talking about 0-3, DA or Staff Ass jobs. I have yet to meet any well-educated and credentialed person in 22207 who has a job that in some was deals with the federal government who does not secretly dream of him or herself as assistant deputy secretary of whatever or chief policy planning officer for whatever. That is simply why well-educated, motivated people move to this town from all across America. This is such a basic fact of life here I am astonished that it is questioned. Again, this has nothing to do with IT in Herndon or 24 year olds in Clarendon.
And your post, to be honest, shows your lack of sophistication in the area. Of course the people I am talking about don't want to be SES for their whole lives; but nothing gets things done in this town like being a former top government official. For a lawyer, for example, it can be the difference between actually having to work and hustle, on the one hand, and just having to take "lunches." Same is true in other professions.
Again, I'm not talking about the under-30 crown--that is a different mix and often folks are just using DC as a stopover on their way back home. But once a professional buys a home in North Arlington and has a family, dollars to donughts they are dreaming of a federal job in their future.
Leroy,
Your example is still anecdotal. One unit in a tier which sells for $100K less than the other 5 or 6 units in their tiers over the same time period is not representative of a trend. All it tells you is that one sold for less than the others in the same tier. Maybe this was a foreclosure, maybe it sold to a relative, maybe it was a wrecked place. First off, you need to look at a timeline going at a minimum of 5 years. Showing other properties that sold at the exact same time period doesn't do anything to assert your claim that prices are falling.
narl,
No offense taken. On the flipside, I do have a decent sophistication in this area. The federal government is without a doubt the economic engine of DC, however that doesn't mean people are dreaming of gov't jobs, even homeowners in 22207. Being a "former top gov't official" does do wonders for your career, however one must be fairly high for this to really make a difference. Just ask Alberto Gonzalez.
I have little doubt that people currently in the federal gov't do dream of being assistant undersecretary of agriculture for squash and artichokes, however that doesn't mean they are the majority of residents. The upwardly mobile in the group of people I know (25-35) for the most part don't work for the fed gov't. They are associates at law firms, DAs, at consulting firms, in RE development, private equity, or at private companies, with a few capitol hill types mixed in.
Just because the group of people you know in 22207 dream of federal jobs (if you yourself are a fed, chances are many of your associates are) doesn't mean everyone does. I come from an extended family of substantial government service, so I know that there is a huge contingent of those types in the area, and I have also seen the SES to law firm partner benefit, but again, that doesn't make it a MAJORITY.
Although I am impressed to see you know what every well-educated government-associated person you have ever met in 22207 dreams of.
Tedk said...
"However, the sales activity shows that their numbers are dwindling. Their psychology is changing. It may be painfully slow for many who have been waiting to buy. But it is occurring nonetheless.
That is why I don't think simply looking at the prices and inventory/demand is enough to say there can't be significant price drops."
TedK - to the contrary this is exactly why I watch months of inventory so closely. In close in areas overpayers/buyers have left the market en masse. However, in response to the lack of buyers, the market has responded with diminishing inventory YOY. Case in point, Arl & Alex are both at less than 6 months inventory (presently) generally the sign of a balanced market.
Now, say for examples sales fall by another 50% to around 80 per month. How do sellers respond? If the 800+ sellers currently on the market stick around we have excess supply and prices fall accordingly. However, if the 800 sellers also fall by half to about 400, suddenly you are looking at 80 sales for 400 sellers (5 months of inventory), again a balanced market.
Now at some point the laws of supply and demand break down. I am not willing to say prices will stay high if sales fall to 8 and listings 40 - however, we are nowhere near that level yet.
In sum, as I see it, all of the pricing pressure the close in areas are receiving are not from an imbalance of supply and demand, but the substitution effect as the other close by areas become siginificantly cheaper.
Put another way, let me turn the question around. Do you know of any situation where there has been less than 6 months of inventory, and even in spite of supply and demand being in balance, prices HAVE fallen significantly?
So Sean, just to be clear, you are saying that you think most DC law firm associates don't dream of getting a good government job that will allow them to skip the drudgery of NEP and go right to rain-making?
RE, PE and for the most part consulting are entirely different animals, not part of the DC government gravy train and I agree with you on that one (you'll note I only discussed people whose jobs deal with the gov). But you seem reasonably smart and I can't believe you are really saying that every 5th year at WRF doesn't dream of being counsel to a commissioner, just to pick one random example that popped into my head.
And serious, you do yourself no service making fun of squash and artichokes--do you have ANY clue how much Ag lobbyists or former Ag Staff Directors get paid?
Just to make my point clear, the following is my proposition:
The vast majority of well-educated, well credentialed people who work in the private sector but whose jobs involve exposure to, or interaction with, the federal government at a reasonably high level (and here I am primarily talking about lawyers, lobbyists and association folks) harbor a desire to do a temporary stint in the government to advance their careers, or are at least cognizant of the possibility.
Sean disagrees.
"Your example is still anecdotal. One unit in a tier which sells for $100K less than the other 5 or 6 units in their tiers over the same time period is not representative of a trend. All it tells you is that one sold for less than the others in the same tier. Maybe this was a foreclosure, maybe it sold to a relative, maybe it was a wrecked place. First off, you need to look at a timeline going at a minimum of 5 years. Showing other properties that sold at the exact same time period doesn't do anything to assert your claim that prices are falling."
I love watching you try to work with actual data. It is sort of like watching a dog try to pick up a basketball that is too big for it to get its mouth around...
The eight most recent sales in that building are all below any previous sale. The trend is clearly down, and sharply.
Yes, more data and more time will make the case even stronger, but we aren't dealing with a single isolated sale, we are dealing with at least eight sales spanning a period of months, all within the same building.
As I expected, you are going to bury your head in the sand once more, but any potential buyer looking at that building would think the most recent 8 sales are pretty relevant...
Narl, even if I believed you, and I don't... there is still no way to ever prove or disprove your theory.
We can all sit here and say: "Obviously you don't know squat about what young professionals in this city are thinking, because I know what they all think, and they all plan to..."
In the end where is this line of reasoning going to take us?
The narrow point is that there is unlikely to be a rash of defaults in upscale zip codes because people prize their future viability.
The broader point is that most people on this board have no clue what they are talking about when it comes to broad segments of the D.C. economy, and won't admit it.
So, Leroy, if you don't believe me, please tell me where you think I am specifically wrong. Otherwise you are just blowing smoke. Actually many of your posts are factual and I respect that. But here you just don't know what you are talking about. It would be like me writing about IT in Herndon
I had to come back for one last post. This NARL person seems like a real jackass but he is essentially correct on the ambitions of DC types. I don't see how anyone could realistically think otherwise. What any of this has to do with housing prices in Arlington is not at all clear...
FD, I was actually kicking around the idea that you were Narl... not that I have completely given that theory up considering the timing of your departure and his arrival and certain common interests.
As for the whole:
"The broader point is that most people on this board have no clue what they are talking about when it comes to broad segments of the D.C. economy, and won't admit it."
I don't see any reason to take your word over mine. I am at least as qualified an observer of what educated young professionals inside the beltway are pursuing as anyone here and I am not the only one that can make that claim.
Yet we still disagree... in the end there isn't going to be any good way to resolve things so long as all people do is show up and claim that they "know" things that no one else does...
So folks, here's where we are. Leroy is staking his credibility that the following statement is false:
"The vast majority of well-educated, well credentialed people who work in the private sector but whose jobs involve exposure to, or interaction with, the federal government at a reasonably high level (and here I am primarily talking about lawyers, lobbyists and association folks) harbor a desire to do a temporary stint in the government to advance their careers, or are at least cognizant of the possibility."
I say it is true. I invite anyone who knows what they are talking about to judge both his and my credibility based on this.
Narlmbla: your arguments about government jobs are like a kindgergartner explaining that the sky is blue because tidibowl is blue.
That's a sophisticated argument, well done.
And Leroy, my posts here stretch back to February, so you can take your sock puppet allegations and stuff them.
lance said: "Showing other properties that sold at the exact same time period doesn't do anything to assert your claim that prices are falling."
Here are 8 active listings for The Byron. Does this help?
FA6764775 - "...MODEL NOW OPEN! Listed price reflects new $150,000 plus incentive"
FA6757495 - "...MODEL NOW OPEN! Listed price reflects new $50,000 incentive"
FA6688180 - Last sale 12/2006 - $734K, current list - $698K
FA6657809 - "...MODEL NOW OPEN! Listed price reflects new $35,000 incentive"
FA6741886 - Last sale 09/2006 - $647K, current list - $590K
FA6757442 - "...MODEL NOW OPEN! Listed price reflects new $75,000 incentive"
FA6751873 - Short sale. Last sale 10/2006 - $738K, current list - $510K
FA6747511 - Last sale 09/2006 - $400K, current list - $369K
hog
Hog--I think FCC is great (though I might argue Mason v. Yorktown) but that condo complex is not really Metro-walkable and the whole thing FCC is trying to do with the downtown, as you no doubt know, is a little weird and more than a little up in the air. So while there have obviously been price declines there (query whether there have been in the FCC SFH market--it is so small probably hard to tell) not sure how representative it is.
narl,
It is difficult to come up with real numbers for SFH since the market is so small. That's why i think looking at condos and townhouses might help determine the overall trend in the area.
Here's the information i'm working with:
* prices clearly declining at the byron
* Pearson Square condos converted to rentals
* Townhouses selling for about $100K less than they did a few years ago. I'm talking about identical models in the same neighborhood.
* SFH over $1 Mil sitting for months, with multiple price reductions.
* Tax assessments for just about every house i've researched (SFH, TH, and condos) down for the last 2 years in a row. Anywhere from $50K-$150K.
Given this evidence, it seems likely that Falls Church City is trending down. I have no idea how far down it will go, but right now it's clearly not going up. My point was to show that it is possible for a desirable location inside the beltway to lose value.
hog
Hog: Every educated person in this area wants a govt job; therefore, none of them will default on a mortgage? As a result, that will keep prices from falling? Is that what you're saying?
NARL is right. Here's another aspect of this area's economy.
Over in Crystal City, where the buildings have names of the major defense contractors, there are marketing, sales, and support people who earn serious coin because they help make things happen.
Some of these are ex-secretaries, not as in "assistant deputy secretary of defense" but as in 25 years after "Mary Washington's School for Young Women". They pick up RFP's, deliver proposals, have friends who work between Rosslyn and Crystal City, and can get things done.
IT types? Two hundred large a year to unroll orange plastic strands in a five-sided building, more if it's in Lance's District in a white house or past the Nationals stadium at the AFB without an airstrip.
These are not NARL's movers and shakers. These are workers, support people who earn serious coin; compare to salaries in BigLaw.
Business for them picked up after 9/11/2001, about when housing prices took that first jump.
Leroy has no credibility with regards to salaries - he thinks lawyers in DC start at 30k a year! ROFL! He is only off by about 400%!
"Here are 8 active listings for The Byron. Does this help?"
Sounds like lance is done with this conversation...
I don't think he can bury his head deep enough to avoid seeing price drops that large and that obvious.
Now his only choice is to either bash City of Falls Church, or just run away so he doesn't have to admit he was wrong again.
Ah yes KH... back to the lame old "everyone in close in DC makes huge amounts of money" lie.
We have provided you with the data enough times that the only reasonable way to explain your continuing falsehoods is that you are lying in hopes of increasing the value of your investment properties.
Over and over and over again we have proven you wrong. Over and over and over again we have shown you that if there are secretaries and IT types brining in $200k a year they are in the small minority.(Considering only ~10% of the HOUSEHOLDS in Alexandria/Arlington bring in $150k +)
Why do you even bother reposting the same stuff when we all know better?
Narl: I argue with numbers and testable hypotheses, not touch-feely things like an opinion about the desirability of government jobs.
"Leroy has no credibility with regards to salaries - he thinks lawyers in DC start at 30k a year! ROFL! He is only off by about 400%!"
Oh, back to this topic again? Seems like you would be a little hesitant to bring it up after you made a complete fool of yourself last time.
Oh yeah, and if anyone is confused I of course said nothing like what he claims I did.
Trying to misquote part of an analogy... and trying to make it sound as if I were saying the exact opposite of what I was...
(The point of the analogy, which must have escaped doug completely, was that you can't use the top <5% of a population and claim that "______s make $XXXk" any more than you could take the bottom <5% of a population and claim THEIR salaries are representative.)
Give it up doug.
"Narl: I argue with numbers and testable hypotheses, not touch-feely things like an opinion about the desirability of government jobs."
Which was my original point, though maybe I didn't state it clearly enough.
You can't just show up in a room full of people you know little to nothing about and say "according to me, everyone in such and such group wants ____" and then attack anyone that disagrees with you.
There is no way to pursue such a debate. Neither side is going to be able to present any evidence and it will quickly turn into a pissing match about who "knows" best.
Leroy,
It's very difficult to discuss things reasonably with Flat Earth Society members. You know - the ones who look out their back doors, see a flat yard and declare that the earth must be flat? When data that represent the population in general contradict their anecdotes, they cling all the more tightly and denigrate the person offering the more comprehensive and representative data. To be fair, I guess the real question is, how many people in the top 10% or so of the income distribution do there need to be in order to support relatively high prices in the most desirable areas?
nova hog said:
"Here are 8 active listings for The Byron. Does this help?"
Not really. We need to see sales prices (i.e., what they sold for) and we need it for at minimum a 5 year time period (10 yrs would be better.) How can you possibly do a trend line for "sold properties and listed properties" over a 1 or 2 yr period when you're talking about home values? Remember, if you're not planning on staying around for 5 yrs, you shouldn't even be looking. Your attempt at finding "bargains" in the way you are though, is very revealing as to why you are having such a hard time getting into a home. You really don't understand that it's not a 1 yr or 2 yr or even 3 yr "investment" to be flipped. Your focus is all wrong.
P.S. Additionally, you can't use listed prices because for all you know, the may get sold for less OR MORE than asking ... (When I was looking a few years ago escalation clauses were pushing prices up by $100K or more ... !)
"Not really. We need to see sales prices (i.e., what they sold for) and we need it for at minimum a 5 year time period (10 yrs would be better.)"
LOL, keep trying to move the goalposts lance. Now not only must declines be >15% in order to count, they must now also be over at least a 5 year period, preferably 10...
Who do you think you are fooling? Do you honestly think someone that bought a condo doesn't think prices have dropped when a nearly identical condo in the same building is sitting unsold for $100k less?
I find it hilarious that when prices shoot up you immediately accept them and declare that it is a "new paradigm" but when prices fall you insist they aren't "real" unless they take place over 5-10 years...
Prices have fallen lance, and they continue to fall. No amount of spinning on your part will change that reality, or for that matter even confuse anyone.
"How can you possibly do a trend line for "sold properties and listed properties" over a 1 or 2 yr period when you're talking about home values?"
Funny how you weren't saying the same thing during the bubble...
"Prices haven't really shot up 30-50% in the last couple years, you can't possibly do a trend line over a period of time that short."
Instead you were saying: "Average rowhouses have doubled in value over the last 12 months...." (Which was a lie in the first place!)
lol
"Remember, if you're not planning on staying around for 5 yrs, you shouldn't even be looking."
So? The fact is that a buyer today paid >$100k less than a buyer a year or two ago.
Those that were smart enough not to be sucked into the bubble mentality have made a very wise financial decision. Those that rushed in are now paying the price for their impatience or bad judgment.
No matter what values are at 5 years from now, the more recent buyer will have gotten the better deal by paying >$100k less to get almost the same thing.
"Your attempt at finding "bargains" in the way you are though, is very revealing as to why you are having such a hard time getting into a home."
Who is having a hard time "getting into a home?" If you are talking about me again, I have explained my situation more times than you are worth frankly.
The fact is that wise financial planning requires patience and prudence. Those that did their homework and didn't buy into the sales pitches offered by realtors and real estate pumpers like you have seen their good planning rewarded.
"It is always a good time to buy." Isn't sound planning. It is a sale pitch from someone who doesn't care about your financial future.
"You really don't understand that it's not a 1 yr or 2 yr or even 3 yr "investment" to be flipped. Your focus is all wrong."
You "really don't understand" that no matter how long someone stay in a home paying >$100k less is far better.
This is quite simple lance, a smart buyer doesn't overpay. If that requires the smart buyer to act like an adult and show a little discipline then that is what the smart buyer does.
If both a bubble buyer and the recent buyer stay in their homes for 30 years until their mortgages are completely paid off, the recent buyer will have spent >$200k less for the same thing.(including interest)
That is what a smart buyer does, they get what they want for less.
"P.S. Additionally, you can't use listed prices because for all you know, the may get sold for less OR MORE than asking ... (When I was looking a few years ago escalation clauses were pushing prices up by $100K or more ... !)"
Hey, there is a compelling theory... obviously these properties are sitting on the market unsold because they are all getting bid up $100k+ above asking...
lol
Leroy said:
"So? The fact is that a buyer today paid >$100k less than a buyer a year or two ago."
first off ... your $100K is a big exaggeration. But let's pretend it's not. Let's roll the clock back 30 years and hear what it sounds like in retrospec ...
"Geez ... I paid $29,000 for my house in Falls Church in 1980 ... But then Fred, my neighbor came in the year after during the recession and paid only $25,000 for his house. Boy did I get suckered!"
Do you see how stupid that sounds in retrospect? You really don't understand the effects of inflation over the long haul, do you?
narl,
I don't completely disagree with you, so I would like to put this to bed. Your statements have found themselves on two completely different wavelegnths.
First: "everyone with an education in this town harbors a dream for a good gov job one day,"
to: "The vast majority of well-educated, well credentialed people who work in the private sector but whose jobs involve exposure to, or interaction with, the federal government at a reasonably high level (and here I am primarily talking about lawyers, lobbyists and association folks) harbor a desire to do a temporary stint in the government to advance their careers, or are at least cognizant of the possibility. "
Those are two very different statements that are two extremely different situations. The first I find completely untrue and a complete misreading of the D.C. industry. The second I don't agree with 100%, but I can get along with. However, the second group of people (which has been mostly narrowed to lawyers, lobbyists and association folks) is not a majority of the well-off people in any zipcode.
If you are in one of those careers, the vast majority of your associates are likely on similar paths so your circle is likely of that mind. But that doesn't make it a majority of people in general. Yes, I know people who dream of being the undersecretary of squash (which I mock because I think 90% of the DofAgriculture is a waste of taxpayer money), but I don't believe them to be a majority of the educated professional population of DC. I believe that are enough other industries people are drawn to, successful in that the fed gov't is not a majority draw (where it definitely once was). That's all.
In an unrelated note for lance: Are you now trying to claim that you need a 5 year period to determine if housing prices have fallen? That is foolish. By the same logic you would need that long to tell that prices have risen, which is equally foolish. You are confusing the minimum timeline of owning (~5 years) with the minimum timeline of price trends (probably quarterly). It is an apples and oranges argument. Even if you are buying for the next 20 years, you are better off buying in Year X at 400k than in Year Y at 500k (assume X and Y are close together).
You seem to be burying your head in the sand on this one.
"first off ... your $100K is a big exaggeration. "
Oh really? and by what twisted logic do you reach that conclusion? I provided you with two examples of condos that sold for ~100k less than the units both directly above and below them... (and someone else provided you with an example of a condo for sale for >$200k less than its previous sale..)
"But let's pretend it's not. Let's roll the clock back 30 years and hear what it sounds like in retrospec ...
Geez ... I paid $29,000 for my house in Falls Church in 1980 ... But then Fred, my neighbor came in the year after during the recession and paid only $25,000 for his house. Boy did I get suckered!"
I wonder sometimes if you are trying to make yourself look like a fool. I almost can't come up with any other explanation when you say things like the above...
Yes, when you look at the difference in price 30 years later it seems smaller because of inflation.
The problem is that that price difference takes the form of lower payments over 30 years...
Lets break down the numbers shall we?
A 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 6% on 400k will result in monthly payments of $2400.
A 30 years fixed rate mortgage at 6% on 500k will result in monthly payments of $3000.
That means the smart buyer is saving $600, PER MONTH, for 30 years.
That is money the smart buyer could use in any number of ways. They could obviously spend it, or they could invest all or part of it.
Lets say they put that $600 into some kind of investment.(We are afterall dealing with the smart buyer.)
With an average return of 5% the smart buyer will find themselves with ~$500k thanks to their educated decision 30 years previously to wait.
With an average return of 10% the smart buyer will find themselves with ~1.2 million... again all thanks to their smart decision 30 years earlier.
"Do you see how stupid that sounds in retrospect? You really don't understand the effects of inflation over the long haul, do you?"
Do you see how stupid you sound now? You don't really understand the effects of compounding interest over the long haul do you?
Let me reiterate since you generally seem to need it.
The difference in price is not "awarded" in a lump sum in non-inflation adjusted dollars 30 years after the purchase.
The difference in price is in the form of lower payments every month for the life of the mortgage, starting the very first month.
The smart buyer can spend or invest this money in any way they wish, including in extremely conservative investments that will match or beat inflation.
""Do you see how stupid that sounds in retrospect? You really don't understand the effects of inflation over the long haul, do you?""
Another way to look at things...
Assume the smart buyer who's monthly payments are $600 lower decides spend that extra $600 a month on their mortgage anyways. (As if they had been an impulsive buyer who paid $500k.)
The smart buyer will find their mortgage paid off in only ~18.5 years while the impulsive buyer, that bought a year earlier, will still be paying for their mortgage 10 years later than the smart buyer...
...but hey, I am sure the smart buyer would feel "stupid in retrospect."
heh
Lance said: "Not really. We need to see sales prices (i.e., what they sold for) and we need it for at minimum a 5 year time period (10 yrs would be better.) How can you possibly do a trend line for "sold properties and listed properties" over a 1 or 2 yr period when..."
*********
Falls Church News-Press...
F.C. Council Puts Ceiling on Tax Rate, Average Tax Bill Will Drop
Written by Nicholas F. Benton
Thursday, 27 March 2008
It came as a startling revelation to some on the Falls Church City Council Monday that, despite prospects of raising the real estate tax rate from $1.01 to $1.04 to balance the coming fiscal year budget this spring, the result will be that homeowners in Falls Church will pay an average of $112 less in taxes.
That’s due to the fact that a sharp average drop in residential real estate values will more than offset the three-cent increase in the tax rate...
*********
Lance, how about now?
hog
"That’s due to the fact that a sharp average drop in residential real estate values will more than offset the three-cent increase in the tax rate..."
Maybe lance should call them and let them know that drops that haven't taken place over at least 5-10 years don't count, for that matter if they haven't fallen at least 15% they aren't even drops!
NARL and Hog, you have hit on a key point. (query whether there have been in the FCC SFH market--it is so small probably hard to tell) not sure how representative it is.
In this zipcode, there are many households but very few SFH. There are hundreds, perhaps a thousand rentals, two high rises and acres of poorly maintained garden apartments (Presidential Gardens).
Then there's this, look over the sales profile.
Glance over the listings. These include the recent sales. It's a small market, it is difficult to come up with real numbers for SFH since the market is so small.
In the part of Alexandria closest to Crystal City, as FCC, there are few SFH available.
The "affordable" places, those under a -choke- paltry half mill, wouldn't float your boat.
Lance's friends can't reconcile this reality. Who can afford these places, they ask. These are too expensive, they must fall.
Somehow, someone is buying million buck SFHs. They've been doing it month after month for years. It's at the link above.
Somehow, half mill hovels are sold.
NARL, Lance, Doug, and others have offered reasons for this mystery.
In a market with only 20 or 30 nicer SFH available, it doesn't take many people earning two hundred large to jump prices up.
Just noticed, oil hit $129. 2 miles to Crystal City.
KH said:
"NARL, Lance, Doug, and others have offered reasons for this mystery."
But Leroy will never understand this. He's too busy compounding his imaginary savings on the purchase he's been deferring for many years now. He doesn't understand the difference between "in theory" and "action". He doesn't understand why risking being locked out forever from one's dream home while one waits for prices to drop is not the same as paying a bit more now and getting on with life. He's too busy comtemplating his possible gains by trying to get it "100% right"/optimized than steering course along the way and facing the bumps in the road as they come along. His theorectical "best" way will always be "best" ... and "theoretical". In the meantime he rents ... waiting for the road to smooth out and all risks in life to clear out of his way.
And in the meantime KH, we and others go on slowly but surely advancing along ... while poor Leroy waits for that opportune moment to make his great leap and stride. The turtle and the hare ...
...and this is from a man who didn't own his first home until his 50s...
What a long winded way of saying nothing...
The sales dollar volume is down 40% YoY.
The unit sales are down 19%
The median is down 11%
Average days on the market is up 28%...
This sounds like a healthy market to you?
What is taking place is no mystery to anyone. The market in close in areas is sitting in the buyer/seller standoff phase with unrealistic sellers holding out for unrealistic prices.
Meanwhile... prices are falling.
You need to find an investment you are less emotionally attached to. If you honestly believe half of what you say here you have brainwashed yourself.
A smart investor is realistic about their investment. They don't just turn into a cheerleader and wish for the best.
"But Leroy will never understand this. He's too busy compounding his imaginary savings on the purchase he's been deferring for many years now."
LoL, I see you have given up on factual arguments completely.
Still not willing to admit you were wrong though I see... instead you are just trying to make up more strawmen to argue with...
"He doesn't understand the difference between "in theory" and "action"."
Oh really? And you think overpaying by >$100k on a home is a good way to get ahead? That is your brilliant "action?"
lol
"He doesn't understand why risking being locked out forever from one's dream home while one waits for prices to drop is not the same as paying a bit more now and getting on with life."
Oops, there is that whole "priced out forever" thing again.
Hey lance, I have news. Prices have ALREADY DROPPED. They have dropped quite a bit and have quite a way to go... You act like there is still some debate about whether or not prices are dropping.
...and as I have already explained to you. I am not "putting off" anything. I will buy when the time is right for me. Not because some internet troll tried to tell me "it is always a good time to buy."
My career really requires me to move overseas, a move I am looking forward to. I will buy after I return.
"He's too busy comtemplating his possible gains by trying to get it "100% right"/optimized than steering course along the way and facing the bumps in the road as they come along."
Who said anything about 100% "optimized?" This is just another of your strawmen lance... the recent buyers in that building will likely see prices fall farther... but at least they started off $100k+ in better shape than the peak bubble buyers.
"His theorectical "best" way will always be "best" ... and "theoretical". In the meantime he rents ... waiting for the road to smooth out and all risks in life to clear out of his way."
Again, I see you have given up on making a factual argument and are left with this emotional rubbish and lies in general.
"And in the meantime KH, we and others go on slowly but surely advancing along ... while poor Leroy waits for that opportune moment to make his great leap and stride. The turtle and the hare"
Right right... speculating your way to housing riches... lol
It is hilarious watching you try to spin things such that impatient buyers that believe it is "always a good time to buy" are somehow superior to the educated buyers who are now showing some discipline with their money and being rewarded.
"...and this is from a man who didn't own his first home until his 50s..."
...and in the interest of general accuracy... he used to own a condo.
but you are right about him waiting until he was within sight of retirement to load himself down with a massive amount of alt-a debt convinced that his house was going straight to the moon...
NoVAwatcher said...
"...and this is from a man who didn't own his first home until his 50s..."
LOL. I luv how you all feed off your own mis-information and myths. For the record, I am not in my 50s ... and I owned my first house at age 30.
Lance: He doesn't understand why risking being locked out forever from one's dream home while one waits for prices to drop is not the same as paying a bit more now and getting on with life.
Call me Leeee-Roy! I can relate to that.
Over ten years ago, this place went up for sale. One of my neighbors remarked that it was their dream house. I'd noticed it too and mentioned that we could sell both our places and go in on it. It was only 3/4 mill. Put down both our equity and I could have carried the mortgage myself, half would have been easy.
It's for sale now but the asking is 2.35 mill. Gulp. That's real money.
So basically you missed out on cashing in on the bubble... so you decided to start buying "investment" properties near the top of the bubble...
Lets see, what is the phrase?
Ah yes, past performance is no guarantee of future results...
Lets face it, some people weren't born to be speculators and you don't appear to be one of them. A smart speculator buys low and knows when to sell.
You seem more interested in falling in love with the idea of real estate and convincing yourself it is ALWAYS a good time to buy...
Lance said...
“But Leroy will never understand this. He's too busy compounding his imaginary savings on the purchase he's been deferring for many years now. He doesn't understand the difference between "in theory" and "action".”
Lance, you seem to confuse “action” and “response”. Leroy (and other BHs) did take action. However, he (and other BHs) did not respond like the rest of the sheeple. It’s clear that enough of those who did respond did so with toxic mortgages, that we now have rounds of government bailouts.
"Lance, you seem to confuse “action” and “response”. Leroy (and other BHs) did take action. However, he (and other BHs) did not respond like the rest of the sheeple. It’s clear that enough of those who did respond did so with toxic mortgages, that we now have rounds of government bailouts."
Not only that... but lance knows quite well at this point that I am moving shortly and am obviously not in the market for a house.
The fact that he continues to try to imply that the reason I haven't bought yet is because of some kind of personal weakness is particularly sad.
He used to claim that there hadn't been any price drops, and that impending price drops were a "theory." Well... now that price drops are here, and they are big. What does that leave him with?
Childishness apparently...
Leroy said:
"Well... now that price drops are here, and they are big."
Why must you lie again? We've gone through this. These "big price drops" are isolated in nature and were predictable where they occurred. There have been no such "big price drops" for the vast majority of homes on the market. Don't believe me? Ask your fellow bubbleheads why they aren't buying yet ... Why they are still waiting for those "big price drops" ...
And as for your not buying. I remember your announcing only some 6 months ago that you were presented an opportunity to move abroad for a few years. How do you explain not having bought the many years prior to that?
"Why must you lie again? We've gone through this. These "big price drops" are isolated in nature and were predictable where they occurred."
lol... right right, because "isolated in nature" means "the majority of the metro area" and "predictable where they occurred" means even though you didn't actually predict the drops, and in fact argued for years that they would never happen... in retrospect you now knew they were going to happen. heh
"There have been no such "big price drops" for the vast majority of homes on the market."
Repeating a lie doesn't make it any more true lance... oh let me guess, once again you are trying to redefine "price drops" as : "price drops of at least 15% over a period of 5-10 years, and only then if you beat me over the head with it until a chimp could see them."
"Don't believe me? Ask your fellow bubbleheads why they aren't buying yet ... Why they are still waiting for those "big price drops" ..."
My "fellow bubbleheads" are a diverse group of people with a wide range of concerns. Some of them ARE buying, others are choosing to wait while price drops continue. (and prices are still falling lance...)
Unlike you, I wouldn't presume to try to speak for "bubbleheads."
"And as for your not buying. I remember your announcing only some 6 months ago that you were presented an opportunity to move abroad for a few years. How do you explain not having bought the many years prior to that?"
lol, I get it... now I must account for every year since birth in which I didn't buy a house?
I didn't move to this area until 2004 and didn't begin to seriously consider buying until 2005. At that point the bubble was readily apparent to anyone willing to open their eyes. Thankfully my good judgment prevented me from jumping into the market then. If I had I wouldn't be able to take my promotion without enduring a massive financial hit.
Leroy said:
"I didn't move to this area until 2004 and didn't begin to seriously consider buying until 2005."
And the place you lived before coming to the area didn't have any houses for sale?
Yep ... There will always be a reason why either you're not in a position to settle down or housing is unreasonably priced and ready to come down in price.
"And the place you lived before coming to the area didn't have any houses for sale?"
You mean in college?
"Yep ... There will always be a reason why either you're not in a position to settle down or housing is unreasonably priced and ready to come down in price."
Right right... so according to your excellent advice I should have bought a "home" while in college so that I could sell it... and move here... so that I could sell that in order to continue my career...
You do realize I am in my mid 20s right?
Seriously, I can't tell if you are trying to make yourself look like an idiot or not most of the time.
Actually Leroy, as you may know buying a house (or better, an apartment) in a college town, especially one which is home to some rich students, is an awesome investment. Obviously it depends on the price and location, but there will always be rich Vandy, Duke and UVA.
Leroy,
If you are just out of college ... (which seems counter to a lot of things you've said in past posts) ... why were you looking/expecting to buy in the first place? Like I've said a million times, unless you are in a position to expect to stay in a house for a minimum of 5 years, buying vs. renting is not a good idea. There aren't too many 23 yr olds just out of college who are in a positon to stay 5 years.
So since you aren't in a positon to buy ... What is YOUR motivation for telling those who ARE in a position to buy to "wait"?
"If you are just out of college ... (which seems counter to a lot of things you've said in past posts) ... why were you looking/expecting to buy in the first place?"
lol, So let me get this straight... you are going to go from trying to claim that I am perpetually indecisive and unwilling to commit... to claiming I was trying to rush things?
It is obvious you are going to cook up one smear or another to try to cover for your inadequate arguments...but you might at least be consistent.
As for why I was looking to buy... Why not? I am well paid, my wife is well paid, our future prospects are good.
In the few years we have been out of college we have saved up sufficient cash to put down a traditional down payment on a SFH inside the Beltway(yes, near a metro for you orange line snobs), without neglecting our retirement.
We have decided not to purchase because it simply doesn't make sense, financially and for career reasons.
"Like I've said a million times, unless you are in a position to expect to stay in a house for a minimum of 5 years, buying vs. renting is not a good idea."
No joke... and as I have told you a million times... I am moving shortly so you can drop the whole "afraid to commit" rubbish you keep dreaming up.
"There aren't too many 23 yr olds just out of college who are in a positon to stay 5 years."
Where did you get 23? Or for that matter right out of college? I told you I moved here in 2004, after college.
"So since you aren't in a positon to buy ... What is YOUR motivation for telling those who ARE in a position to buy to "wait"?"
Since you aren't in a position to buy, what is YOUR motivation for telling those who ARE...
etc etc
I was considering buying when I first started posting here. Since then circumstances have changed, now I follow the market out of interest and because I will probably eventually return to the area.
Leroy said:
""There aren't too many 23 yr olds just out of college who are in a positon to stay 5 years."
Where did you get 23? Or for that matter right out of college? I told you I moved here in 2004, after college."
You said you were looking to buy when you moved here in 2004 ... right out of college. I guess you were older than 22/23 when you graduated from college? 40? 50?
"You said you were looking to buy when you moved here in 2004 ... right out of college. I guess you were older than 22/23 when you graduated from college? 40? 50?"
I moved here in 2004, I didn't start seriously looking into buying until 2005.(and obviously decided it wasn't the time...)
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