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Saturday, May 24, 2008
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37 comments:
More evidence of stunning price declines in nice areas of North Arlington...
http://tinyurl.com/5333oz
err, or, maybe not...
Interesting.
I wonder what happened to this one just down the street (trustee’s sale 5/21/2008)?
http://tinyurl.com/5ms5sx
http://tinyurl.com/56ralj
As I posted in other threads, unless you know exactly what improvements the seller made and their cost - and these can often range into the hundreds of thousands given the age and condition of many Arlington houses - you simply have no way of assessing how much of the current price reflects a market increase or decrease in the value of the house, versus the cost of real improvements. For example, if the owner paid $600K and put in $300K, selling a house for $850K reflects a loss. And it may represent a possible decline in the market (or maybe just bad choices and/or bad timing on the part of the seller). This is true whether you point out one example or dozens.
So if all you present is the price of the last two sales of one house, no one can reasonably infer anything from those numbers. I don't know why this concept is so tough to grasp.
So by your reasoning, we can only prove price decreases, but not price increases, with the data we have.
That's convenient.
ace said:
"So if all you present is the price of the last two sales of one house, no one can reasonably infer anything from those numbers. I don't know why this concept is so tough to grasp."
errrrr ... don't let Harriet hear you say that! (not that I disagree with you ... )
re: 2018 N EMERSON ST
Sales Date - Sales Price - Sales Code
12/26/2003 - $0 - Will or right of survivorship
04/02/2005 - $700K - Land sale; multiple parcels involved
08/03/2006 - $775K - RPC not previously assessed
04/23/2008 - $0 - Correction deed
04/25/2008 - $820K - NONE
Improvement details shows "year built - 2006".
Does this mean:
1) someone inherited the property in 2003
2) sold it off as multiple parcels in 2005
3) one (or all) of the parcels was sold in 2006 for $775K
4) someone built a new house on one (or all) parcel(s)
5) new house that was built in 2006 sold for $820K in 2008
I'm not implying anything and I'm not sure my interpretation of the data is correct. Maybe a house was built and sold in 2006 for $775K and then sold again in 2008 for $820K? Anyone familiar with how to read the sales codes?
narl said: "More evidence of stunning price declines in nice areas of North Arlington...err, or, maybe not..."
I don't think i've seen anyone claim that nice areas in North Arlington have experienced stunning price declines. I'll admit i haven't read every post here, so maybe i'm wrong.
hog
My argument is that you can't "prove" much with anecdotes, and that you can't understand what is happening with prices (particularly with one or two examples) if you don't have all of the relevant information, such as prior sales and the costs and nature of improvements since the most recent sale. On the price decline side, the number of owners who enter their homes with the intent to trash them seems to be relatively small relative to the number who buy a house to fix up. So chances are that you have more of the info, though imperfect, that you need to demonstrate price declines. But my argument really isn't what you've said - it's that when you are missing important and relevant info that varies quite a bit from house to house, it's hard to interpret a price correctly.
novahog, there is also a chance that construction was incomplete in 2006. given that contractors have quoted me $300 per square foot costs for adding on to a home, it seems unlikely that a home was erected for $75K or even $125K. Maybe the land was bought for $700K and the house torn down. On one $350K side, a small, basic house was built for another $425K, equalling $775K. Further improvements could be made later. For example, maybe a new stone patio, a tall cedar fence and landscaping were added.
Better than speculate, we should drive by and try to figure out what happened.
Does anyone know about the protocol for returning earnest money when a contract expires?
Our last extension on the short sale house we put an offer on expired May 1. We filled out the release form, which was signed by all parties sometime during the following week. I finally got a call from the broker at Weichert the second week of May, during which she chit-chatted about why we had let the offer expire (why does she care?) and she assured me that the check was on its way...after "corporate" signed off on it. She said to call again if we had not received it by Memorial Day weekend.
Is it really this hard/this much of a drawn-out process to have OUR MONEY returned to us?
Tabitha,
They should have returned it to you once the contract expired. Not that it's worth pursuing, but you do have a case for them owing you interest for the intervening time. The agents I dealt with usually just held on to the check and returned it to me if the deal didn't go through ... Though the agents do have a right to deposit it in an escrow (and non-interest bearing) account.
Just can't stay away from looking at new listings:
8602 DUTCHMAN Ct
MANASSAS, VA 20110
MN6770065
Price: $394,900
last sale: $670,000 1/26/2006
2008 assessment: $460,300
2600 sqft 5BR/3.5BA finished basement, granite, built-in bookcases, etc. close to VRE
Noticed two other houses on the same culdesac where purchased last year for just under $450K, one from a bank...
tabitha, are you at liberty to say how you are able to find the info yo post here? I'd like to look at similar info for Arlington, Alexandria, etc. Thanks either way.
ace,
I use the Manassas City/PWC assessors' websites for past sale/assessment/house info, and real estate sites like Redfin and FranklyRealty for listings info. If areas you are interested in have that info online, Harriet has links to their sites on her front page, on the right hand side.
As you can see, it gets addictive sometimes...
What did people do before they had access to such info on their own?
I remember looking at houses 10 years ago. The realtor had this magic book that had all the MLS listings and they wouldn't let you look at it. The internet has totally changed the way you buy and sell properties.
Addicting, you got that right. I bought a house over a year ago and still look at new listings in my zipcode. Just to make sure I still got a good deal. I can't stop someone help me....
Thanks, tabitha. Steve, this probably isn't the best place to get help, since we all seem to be equally addicted :-)!
yeah, I started posting on these blogs hoping it would get me over my addiction to checking out the new MLS listings ... it worked! but ....
they say people have "addictive personalities" ... I guess we should be thankful we've channeled our addictive personalities toward something like this ...
I hope everyone is enjoying their Memorial Day.
Worst Cities For Homeowner Debt
http://tinyurl.com/3roba5
Just some food for thought...Washington is #4 on the list.
Whoever compiled that table still doesn't know the difference between OR and XOR.
Hint: you can not add the "Both second mortgage and home equity loan" (AND) with "Second Mortgage or home equity loan" (OR) to get the total.
This is just for Fun! Nothing to do with NoVA, just a break for HH and BH.
... that high-end home buyers feel this year is a great one to buy property.
One reason has to do with financial market conditions. The Dow Jones industrial average is down 5% this year, and the Standard & Poor's 500 has dropped 10%. Real estate in prime locations allows buyers to hedge against the risks of a sagging market and a sinking dollar by putting their money into a less volatile asset, similar to the reasons that people invest in gold. The highest end of the luxury market, above $20 million, has not softened like the general market.
"Over the long haul, quality real estate has never been a loser," says Jim Taylor, vice chairman of the Harrison Group, a marketing and strategic research firm in Waterbury, Conn. "If you've paid in cash, you're balancing your portfolio against market risk. They're not printing any more land, even if they are printing more money."
and a quote for BH:
In addition, sellers like Trump, with his $25 million price reduction, are increasingly flexible.
messed up the link in the above fun piece.
It's on Forbes.com.
Wow... that is a lot of lame old cliches for one article.
If you want to conserve wealth, put your money in gold and silver. Houses depreciate, rot, get old. Gold and silver . . . it takes a looooong time.
but but... I thought they weren't "printing" any more land!
NEW YORK - A closely watched housing index shows U.S. home prices dropped at the sharpest rate in two decades during the first quarter.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller said Tuesday its U.S. National Home Price index fell 14.1 percent in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the lowest since its inception in 1988.
Its narrower indices also set record declines. The 20-city index tumbled 14.4 percent during the quarter, the lowest since that index was started in 2001. The 10-city index plunged 15.3 percent, a record in its 20-year history.
Contrarian, there's no way that woman would have left her three indoor cats alone in a house she planned to burn down.
More evidence of stunning price declines in nice areas of North Arlington...
http://tinyurl.com/5333oz
err, or, maybe not...
I must be missing something here. From the assessments, it looks like a piece of property sold for $700,000 in April 2005, about $300,000 in improvements were made over the next couple years, and it sold for $820,000 in April 2008.
Am I misreading this, or is this a pretty major loss for someone?
Actually, I probably did overlook an important point. The $700,000 sale looks like it was multiple parcels, so it can't all be allocated to that one address.
Am I misreading this, or is this a pretty major loss for someone?
According to county tax records, the house was built in 2006.
http://tinyurl.com/66hos7
Actually, I probably did overlook an important point. The $700,000 sale looks like it was multiple parcels, so it can't all be allocated to that one address.
Actually, prior to 2006, there was probably a single house on a 10,000 square foot lot. It looks like BCN acquired the property as a tear down on April 2, 2005 for $700,000. They then divided the property into two 5,000 square foot lots and built two houses: 2018 N. Emerson & 2032 N. Emerson. BCN sold both properties on August 3, 2006: 2018 N. Emerson (5,000 sq. ft. lot and new house) for $775,000, and 2032 N. Emerson (5,000 sq. ft. lot and new house) for $760,000.
http://tinyurl.com/5huxu6
Another house on N. Nelson sold... If it sold anywhere near asking price, it shows that things are not so bad in Ashton Heights, i.e., nowhere near 2003 levels. The listing agent used to live in that house and sold it for $602,000in 2003. It was not redone. I do wonder what is the deal with everyone on Nelson trying to sell their house?
http://allegiance2.virginia.remax.com/Listings/ListingDetail_r4.aspx?LID=44412112&CID=12693405&#aTop
Re: 2018 & 2032
I also wanted to point out that these properites could have been improved since they were built.
The houses look very similar and the tax records show both properties at 2140 sq. ft.
The tax values are $693,000 (2018) and $692,800 (2032) for 2008.
On Zillow, its looks like the owner of 2032 indicated that the house is now 2900 square feet. Zillow also shows 2032 with a significantly greater value than 2018.
Perhaps one or both houses were finished out further after they were purchased, without the knowledge of Arlington County.
Perhaps the information on Zillow is wrong regarding 2032.
http://tinyurl.com/4ljn6f
http://tinyurl.com/4re362
For anyone interested, the tiered CS price indexes for March 08 in DC Metro are now up:
http://tinyurl.com/yph9xa
From March 07
The highest tier was down 8.7 percent
The middle was down 17.3 percent
The low tier was down 20.3 percent
The high and middle tiers are back to what the were (roughly) in Nov 2004.
What's going on with this home?
http://www.redfin.com/VA/SPRINGFIELD/7411-INZER-St-22151/home/9720612
Never came off the market?
http://www.redfin.com/VA/SPRINGFIELD/7411-INZER-St-22151/home/9720612
A bank bought from an owner? And is selling for less now?
Date Amount Seller Buyer
02/21/2008 $652,174 CAMACHO RICHARD HSBC BANK USA NATIONAL ASSOCIATION TR
10/28/2005 $760,000 ALMANZA PABLO CAMACHO RICHARD
07/01/2004 $332,000 FOWLER KIRBY B ALMANZA PABLO
04/09/1984 $91,000 FOWLER KIRBY B
11/04/1977 $57,500
Listing Price History
Date Price
Feb 05, 2008 $674,900
Mar 25, 2008 $634,900
Apr 23, 2008 $539,900
This is GREAT in FAIRFAX. Tons of DEALS!!
Looks like everyone who bought in 04/05 is trying to SELL SELL SELL or have foreclosed??
300k is the going listing price vs 500k they paid for (unless it was a tear down/etc)..
http://www.redfin.com/search#lat=38.80369772268522&long=-77.20633506774902&zoomLevel=15&market=dc&v=2
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