Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Fannie Mae loses $2.2B in quarter, 'The company said it expects "severe weakness" in the housing market in 2008, bringing increased mortgage defaults and foreclosures.'http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080506/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_fannie_mae
And UBS cites a loss of nearly 11B US"Meanwhile, UBS said it swung to a first-quarter net loss of 11.54 billion Swiss francs ($10.99 billion) after a 3.03 billion francs net profit in the year-earlier period."There is still a long way to go in acknowledging losses IMO.
Interesting inventory trend – NOVA inventory is now below where it was 2 years ago (18,537 units on 5/5/08 versus 18,554 on 5/5/06). http://www.virginiamls.com/This is quite remarkable considering inventory started so high this year – there were 17,062 places for sale on 1/1/08 in comparison to 13,104 on 1/1/07 and only 9,303 units on 1/1/06. Those doing the best are Alexandria and (surprisingly) Loudon, which are both below their 2006 AND 2007 inventory tracks. Arlington is next as it is below 2006 but not 2007 (yet). PWC and Fairfax are still above their 06 & 07 marks, but could break below them this summer. When the credit crunch hit last fall, many people (including myself) assumed the slowing sales would cause a large "spring bounce in inventory" as unsold homes piled up on the market. Even 2 months ago it looked this way as inventory looked well on its way to easily setting an all time record. This has not happened. If this trend continues, the high water mark for absolute inventory in this area will not be summer 2008 but instead summer 2006.
This is an article that is very much worth a read. If you only read one housing related story this week this should probably be it. http://tinyurl.com/6mhc4j
"When the credit crunch hit last fall, many people (including myself) assumed the slowing sales would cause a large "spring bounce in inventory" as unsold homes piled up on the market. Even 2 months ago it looked this way as inventory looked well on its way to easily setting an all time record. This has not happened. "It is certainly an interesting trend. I am seeing two things here:first, it appears many people have bought into the realtor's claims that the market will rebound "soon" and are avoiding selling their houses if at all possible. As expected the credit crunch has resulted in a dramatic drop in sales, we know that from the available data, but even with sales down 40-50% from peak levels inventory growth is very moderate. Obviously there are less houses being listed. Second, we are seeing a distinct flattening of the seasonal curves, especially in the hardest hit areas. In places like Manassas, PWC, and Loudon inventory didn't drop much during the fall and winter and hasn't climbed much in the spring. The line in PWC is almost completely flat. I believe this supports the theory that most would-be sellers with any choice in the matter are trying to wait while desperate sellers are allowing their houses to sit on the market all through the winter. I suspect there are a lot of people who have given up on their plans to "move up" this year and are instead just sticking it out in their current home.
Also ARM resets on prime loans are likely to set to less than the rate they signed up for initially now. Temporary of course, but it shows the Fed movements are working to some degree.
CRT, this gentleman agrees with your findings and has an explanation. It's in today's Wall Street Journal:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
LOL:"We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There's still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better."-- David Lereah(Quote from Newsweek)
I decided to run the whole article in today's Wall Street Journal:The Housing Crisis is OverThe dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York.
"I believe this supports the theory that most would-be sellers with any choice in the matter are trying to wait while desperate sellers are allowing their houses to sit on the market all through the winter." This is what I take from this too. The good thing for the market is there is likely not another slug of desperate homeowners sitting on the sidelines. Of course, if the "regular" homeowners wait too long they will become desperate, but that is another matter.A key now will be the # of sales for april especially as it relates to PWC. If PWC can post another YOY increase, it may suggest the market is transitioning from one of quickly falling prices, to one of gently falling or flatlining prices (price increases are still years away as I see it).
tom,The author speaks of affordability in terms of national averages, and that doesn't yet have any relevance to bubble markets. Locally, there is no basis for the claim that by end of 2008 inventories will drop to 7 months from 11 months now--and now is supposed to be the best selling season--, unless he is talking about the traditional pattern of people taking their homes off the market and relisting it later.
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....Just watch...http://video.nbc4.com/player/?id=248222In other news.... I wonder if they bailout homedebtors... does there credit score get a reset also?..hmmmIt seems the nothing is creeping into DC... slowly but surely....
Tom,I don't follow a portion of that article. It says:"That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply,..."and then:"Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008."As I read this, inventory of 482,000 today is 11 months supply. Yet this article implies that 400,000 is 7 months supply. Those numbers don't match unless demand goes up by 30%.At first glance, I would argue that this opinion is over reaching in how quickly the inventory overhang can be sold off.My $0.02
"It seems the nothing is creeping into DC... slowly but surely...."Wow - proving your point by showing the story of a Nigerian immigrant who is the "CEO" of "The Potential Millionaires Club". The guy looked like a huckster through and through. He probably made his money by preying on the poor people in SW and PG county or maybe the Nigerian email scams. Think this guy is in any way indicitavie of the millionaires who live in DC? Think most of the people there made their money working the grift as this guy clearly did? If so think again. If anything, surrounding property values will certainly increase due to this guy's abscence.
denial...fixes nothing.. only prolongs the inevitable...http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/14/real_estate/home_prices_fall_for_year/index.htmAnd yes.. my Nigerian friend is definitely not indicative of a normal dc millionaire... but then again.. how many millionaires in dc are millionaires via the housing bubble that just busted... just a thought..its a great time to buy/sarc
Thanks for the WSJ article...my problem with it has already been cited: it talks in national terms. The nation is not dealing with the problems of the local market in PWC. I am extremely anxious to see the April numbers on the 10th, but I am far more interested to see the foreclosure numbers each month this year. Because no matter what happens with sales this year, those foreclosures will have to be dealt with when they return to the market. In the first three months of this year, forclosure activity was double, more than double, and then five times as much as it was the previous year.Last point: I noticed the same thing about supply. In several neighborhoods I have been watching since we moved here in 2006, there were several homes for sale in 2006 that never sold. They came back on last spring/summer, and never sold again. Houses that had been vacated by their owners simply stayed on the market through the winter, and are still for sale today. The others simply did not come back on this spring, either because the owners stayed put and gave up, or they found renters.But the new foreclosures will have to be unloaded sometime...and the empty houses will have to be priced to sell sometime, too...
Tabitha,The WSJ is a great publication that has excellent articles going into great depth and detail. It's ashame that Rupert Murdoch will dumb it down and add a sports section to it. It should be clearly noted that the article posted was an Opinion piece by a managing partner in a hedge fund. It was not an investigative piece by a WSJ reporter.My $0.02
CRT: Interestingly, HousingTracker.net says the opposite: NoVA inventory is higher today than it was 2 years ago:Old HousingTracker (v1): 13,743 vs. 10,310New HousingTracker: 41,603 vs. 34,279
"CRT: Interestingly, HousingTracker.net says the opposite: NoVA inventory is higher today than it was 2 years ago:"Novawatcher - I think you are looking at the whole DC metro area (MD included) not just NOVA. I think that is the only way you can get to a number as high as 40K Inventory. As it so happens, MD is only now starting to experience large inventory spikes. PG, AA, Charles, Mont, etc. are all experiencing new highs, much the same way NOVA was in 2006.
Also, the article fails to address the credit rating of all these people getting foreclosed on.....who is going to lend these folks money to buy a home any time in the next 5-7 years???
A few comments about inventory.1) It SHOULD be reducing this time of the year (spring selling season). The key thing is to look at inventory and sales volume to determine if things are getting better.2) Here in LA, realtors are actively encouraging people to take houses off the market (this is officially being preached by the california association of realtors). Look for increases in rental inventory if this is happening...this ultimately will put pressure on rents. Which longterm puts pressure on house prices. It doesn't fix anything long term.3) Inventory is a leading indicator. Inventory reduction happens before the correction is finished. In LA in mid-90's, prices dropped for almost two years after inventory peaked.
gold_h2o asked: "Also, the article fails to address the credit rating of all these people getting foreclosed on.....who is going to lend these folks money to buy a home any time in the next 5-7 years???"While their credit rating will be affected for at least 7 years, oddly enough they'll be eligible to get a mortgage again after 24 months provided no other marks appear on their reports.
I meant to say "regular mortgage". They'll be eligible for a sumprime mortgage anytime.
I just checked absolute inventory in MD. Sure enough, every local jurisdiction is up YOYOY (March 06-08). It is almost as if the inventory rise is acting like a wave, hitting the VA exurbs first, then the core, and then on to the MD areas. Sidelined - a few comments.Around this area inventory does not reduce in the spring - at least it hasnt in the last 10 years. Sales increase in the spring but inventory doesnt seem to peak until the summer. As to inventory & sales volume - I agree that is the key. Incidentally, since you are interested in Arlington you should know, that for most of 07 Arlington & Alexandria had lower"months of inventory" than they did in 2006. They were the only jurisdictions around here that did this leading some to believe the core area will not fall like the rest of the area. They did briefly spike in Jan 08 but have spent most of the crisis in the 4-7 "months of inventory" range. As of March 2008, Arlington is at 5.5 months of supply. As to inventory being a leading indicator - that is generally correct. However that would mean that the mild price drops now seen in arlington & alexandria are the products of peak inventory (summer2006). Personally, this is why I believe that months of inventory is the best chance the core areas have of seeing price declines (i.e. inventory is low, but sales could be lower still).
That is what is happening here in Manhattan Beach. Inventory is not at a historical high. But sales have essentially disappeared and is at a 20-year low (not tracked before then). So months of inventory is relatively high, even though inventory is not massive.Local realtors continue to try and talk up the market, but it is ironic that they are abandoning some of their traditional metrics as they start to fail. They use to use y-over-y prices on a given month. Now they do a smoothed average (which keeps prices from going negative --yet).But some of the realtors are getting on the price drop bandwagon as volume disappears.....they'll talk it down in the end if they have to jumpstart sales.I hear volume is down in Arlington?It doesn't take that big of a change to impact buyer sentiment.
Calculated Risk on WSJ article:http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/is-housing-crisis-over.html
Sidelined - I dont know about Manhattan beach specifically, but take a look at this guys charts for LA south bay and Arlington VAhttp://recomments.blogspot.com/You will note that South Bay is up in 2008 by 25%. By contrast, Arlington inventroy did not build as it did in 06 & 07. It is now below 06 levels. As to Arlington sales, they are WAYYYY down starting in 2008. Jan sales were about 1/2 any prior year, and this led many of us to believe "this is it" (i.e. the core areas will now experience very high months of inventory the way the outer areas have for 24+ months now). However, as sales increased and inventory flattened take a look at what this did to months of inventory in ArlingtonJan 9.14Feb 6.87Mar 5.51So in 3 months Arlington was able to nearly halve its months of inventory. Here we are 2 1/2 years into the downturn, and the area is posting a mere 5.5 months of inventory. I dont know how it continues to escape the larger effects of the downturn, but so far, it looks to be doing ok. I still think the slack sales will lead to big months of inventory and substantial price declines. That said however, I was saying this a year ago, and so far it still hasnt happened. The more time goes by, the less confident I am in that prediction.
"how many millionaires in dc are millionaires via the housing bubble that just busted... "Id say none - either they were millionaires long before the bubble (a la georgetown) or they were buyers on credit (a la the rest of the area) that werent millionaires in the first place.
Arlington County (Available)Inventory:Jan. 2006 512Jan. 2007 711Jan. 2008 743Feb. 2006 554Feb. 2007 663Feb. 2008 754Mar. 2005 159Mar. 2006 651Mar. 2007 647Mar. 2008 838Apr. 2005 182Apr. 2006 802Apr. 2007 744Apr. 2008 889May 2005 265May 2006 1037May 2007 851May 2008 923Source:http://www.virginiamls.com/
Manhattan Beach inventory is down. We are about 20% the size of the Arlington market, I believe. S. Bay is amazingly UP in price y-o-y, even though all of the reporting cities except one are y-o-y negative....volume in two cities was so low the last reporting period that those areas were excluded. Manhattan Beach is down ~15% y-over-y. That is NOW a 1.5-M median on a 200-K income.I don't believe for one second that Arlington is "immune" to the downturn. Even the very best neighborhoods. When I look at listings, I see am surprised to see a lot of houses that look like "fliper specials"....all fixed up and not owned very long. How common is this there? Are these primarily realtors doing this? We have had the realtors getting rid of their "flips" this spring. They are typically not worth dealing with around here....the realtors pretty much play hardball with prices. When no one local goes for it, they seem to team up with the buyer agents to sell to newcomers...at least that is the only way that I can explain realtors preferentially managing to sell there own properties.For the decling inventory, how much of that is pulled listings and how much is actually sales?
Zero down has interesting data. There was a very short term inventory spike in 2006. Excluding that one data point (which is reasonable based on the before and after monthly data in 2006), it looks like the inventory trend is UP.It would also be useful to see the sales volume.Given what is happening all over the country, it doesn't take much to ultimately pop the bubble. Then it seems to take on a life of it's own.
NOVA (Available) Inventory:Jan. 2006 9,303Jan. 2007 13,104Jan. 2008 17,062Feb. 2006 10,567Feb. 2007 12,798Feb. 2008 17,015Mar. 2005 2,545Mar. 2006 11,818Mar. 2007 12,982Mar. 2008 17,590Apr. 2005 3,033Apr. 2006 14,864Apr. 2007 15,000Apr. 2008 18,325May 2005 3,768May 2006 17,950May 2007 17,159May 2008 18,699Source:http://www.virginiamls.com/
Pointing to slightly falling inventory and saying the correction is over is nothing short of misleading. The sales rate has fallen so much that "months inventory" is at very high levels. Arlington has 7 months of inventory right now, Fairfax has 10.5 months, Alexandria has 8.5 months, and the situation is worse further out. Months inventory is on an upward trend, and that does not portend a correction's end.With regard to the affordability claimed in the WSJ article: affordability hinges on still-unusually low interest rates. Just how affordable are houses at today's prices if rates rise to above 8% (i.e., back to normal levels)? Answer: Not very.
Anyone else look at the mortgage type charts, and think this is really just the Eye of the storm, and not really the end?
There are a lot of problems with that article claiming that this is the bottom, some of which have already been pointed out.For one thing the article appears to be talking about primarily the new home market, but isn't always clear. I can't tell if the author is being deliberately ambiguous or not honestly. It is certainly possible that new home sales VOLUME is at the bottom on a nationwide basis, but that doesn't say much about prices.In the existing home market sales volume continues to fall and price drops have done nothing but accelerate. There doesn't appear to be even a hint of a bottom yet.
Zerodown's data is correct. However, if he/she had graphed the rest of the year, you would notice the "short term spike" in 2006 continued for a period of 7 months. Thats true not just for Arlington county either - that is for the entire NOVA area.As to the supposed immunity of the area, you can beleve what you want however there are some interesting discrepancies that are difficult to explain. Instead of comparing South Bay to Arlington, lets compare Arlington to Loudon county a mere 20 miles away. Some people have said "nice" areas are the latest to fall. Well, Loudon is about as nice as areas get. That said, Loudon seems to have fallen a long time ago in ways that Arlington did not. Lets look at the most basic measure of supply and demand (months of inventory)In 2005 both areas had 1-3 months of inventory. Arlington ended the year at 2.99 months, Loudon at 3.60 months - overall pretty close.By Jan 2006 clear discrepancies emerged. Arlington rose slightly to 3.7 months while Loudon balooned to 7.3 months. It only got worse from there. For the rest of 2006, Arlington spent most of the year at 3-5 months of inventory. By contrast, Loudon spent most of the year at 9-10 months. Both basically moved in lockstep, but by then clear differences had already emerged.In 2007, Arlington spent most of the year at 3-4 months of inventory, a slight improvement over 2006. Loudon did slightly better yoy too, but because it was so bad to begin with, spent most of the year at 8-12 months.These discrepancies were not anomalies. Lets look at median prices for the entire year 2007.Arlington 2007 -1.44%Loudon 2007 -9.26% Sure enough, the last 2 years of inventory discrepancies have translated to big discrepancies in prices. What about 2008 (Jan-March)? Arl Jan 08 - 2.87%Lou Jan 08 -11.80%Arl Feb 08 - 9.57%Lou Feb 08 -10.70%Arl Mar 08 + 3.21Lou Mar 08 -19.94%So once again, the discrepancy continues. A posting of -9.57% could indicate cracks in Arlington's facade, but it seems pretty clear as to which area will end up worse at the end of the year. If you want to check yourself, all things I just pointed to are here http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/Now, I for one will readily say I have no idea why these 2 areas diverged, but they clearly have. Again, this is not some podunk area we are talking about here. This is Loudon county - one of the richest counties in the area, with a median income is far above that of Arlington. These markets are 20 some miles apart, there is no reason one would experience something the other would not. However clear differences have in fact emerged.So far no one has come up with a plausible explanation as to why these 2 areas that were so close together 2.5 years ago have diverged so much. Also, no one seems to be totally clear on why after 2.5 years this gap will finally close. Thus there are many here who believe that this divergence will continue.That said, if you can come up with some explanation as to why the gap emerged but will close, there are many here (including myself) that would love to hear it.
"Pointing to slightly falling inventory and saying the correction is over is nothing short of misleading." John Fountain - I am curious to know who this comment is directed toward. I did happen to say. "it may suggest the market is transitioning from one of quickly falling prices, to one of gently falling or flatlining prices (price increases are still years away as I see it)."Is this what you were referring to?
John Fountain, can you please explain this too:"Arlington has 7 months of inventory right now, Fairfax has 10.5 months, Alexandria has 8.5 months"Per MRIS, I am showing Arlington at 5.5 months. Alexandria at 8 months, and Fairfax at 8.6. Is there a separate source you are looking at?You also said, "Months inventory is on an upward trend, and that does not portend a correction's end."Per MRIS as for the each of these has declined for the last 3 months. As have Loudon and even PWC. Are you refering to YOY trends? (if so fair enough).
Here are market stats for Arlington County for the month of April 2008:In April, the total number of active listings on the market in Arlington was 860. Of those active listings, the minimum list price was $109,000 while the maximum list price was $8,850,000. The average list price was $647,958. The average number for property days on the market is 107.The number of listings under contract was 287. Of those listings under contract, the minimum list price was $144,000 while the maximum list price was $5,875,000. The average list price was $548,897. The average number for property days on the market is 59.The number of listings that were sold & settled in April was 182. Of those listings sold, the minimum list price was $119,000 while the maximum list price was $5,000,000. The average list price was $607,023. The average number for property days on the market was 70.
Narl – I just got a similar report from Alexandria: 822 active listings and 150 sales. We should wait until MRIS comes out in a few days to be sure, but if these reports are correct, Arlington will have 4.73 months of inventory and Alexandria 5.48 months. Remember where we were 4 months ago when Arlington & Alexandria stunned nearly everyone by posting 9.14 and 10.18 months of inventory. Many of us thought that could be the beginning of a new trend with serious pricing pressure due to greater supply & slack demand. I still don’t think those areas are out of the woods juuuust yet. However, 3 straight months of decreasing months of inventory makes me think that January numbers were more an anomaly than the beginning of a new trend. Prices can still fall, and I think they will continue to fall due to the substitution effect. However, as a believer in old school economics, I think you also need to see a sustained imbalance in supply and demand to get some serious price drops. These areas still dont have that.
CRT - use this link, click on the name of any location, and scroll down to the seventh chart...http://www.recharts.com/AroundDC.htmmonths inventory is surging upward as we speak.
John Fontain said... "CRT - use this link, click on the name of any location, and scroll down to the seventh chart...http://www.recharts.com/AroundDC.htmmonths inventory is surging upward as we speak."It says that Arlington County's months of inventory is at 6.8 three months moving average. And that is right in line with what CRT just said. (I.e., Because the last 3 months are averaged together, you end up with months of inventory that are somewhere between where they are now at 5.5 and where they were 3 months ago ...)
John Fountain thanks for the link. It makes sense now because the stat you are looking at is a 3 month average of "months inventory" - I was looking at single months. Lance - good catch.
Shockingly, Fontain, one of the least credible posters here, was playing fast and loose with the numbers...
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