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Thursday, May 22, 2008
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82 comments:
25240 CURIOSITY SQ
Aldie, VA 20105
MLS#: LO6752171
http://www.franklymls.com/LO6752171
Previous Sale Date: 3/13/2006
Previous Sale Price: $532,540
Asking: $250,000
% of last sale price: 47%
Townhomes like this were selling for around $250k in the summer of 2002.
-------------------------
12298 WYE OAK COMMONS CIR
Burke, VA 22015
MLS#: FX6664863
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6664863
Previous Sale Date: 12/29/2005
Previous Sale Price: $423,000
Asking: $299,000
% of last sale price: 71%
Here's another one in Arlington, specifically in correction-proof Clarendon:
2913 9TH ST N
ARLINGTON VA 22201
List Price: $609,900
Prior Sale: $765,000 7/14/06
-20.3%, $-155,100
John Fontain said...
"Here's another one in Arlington, specifically in correction-proof Clarendon:
2913 9TH ST N
ARLINGTON VA 22201
List Price: $609,900
Prior Sale: $765,000 7/14/06
-20.3%, $-155,100"
JF ... Why don't you buy it? Obviously it must be in good shape ... It must have been a legit sale last time ... And it must be what you're looking for ... Right?
Another of your valuable contributions.
Why don't you just announce the bottom has passed again and tell us all we have missed our chance and better run out and buy before we are priced out forever?
Leroy ... Yeah ... just keep waiting for that bottom. Maybe you'd like to explain to my tax assessor why he shouldn't be raising my tax assessment again this year? But if it makes you feel more secure to believe that "prices are falling everywhere", don't let me be the one to burst your bubble. LOL
What's a good site for searching foreclosures?
realtytrac.com?
also ushomeauction.com
What's a good site for searching foreclosures?
Some of the REO links that I've bookmarked:
http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp
http://bankofamerica.reo.com/search/
http://www.citimortgage.com/Mortgage/Oreo/SearchListing.do
http://mortgage.chase.com/pages/other/co_properties_landing.jsp
http://www.reoexperts.net/
http://www.ocwen.com/reo/residential/res_reofindbystate.cfm
http://www.pasreo.com/pasreo/public/content.do;jsessionid=513FB7290D082ED35F3308B351DB6CC0?pageID=2000576
http://www.ushomeauction.com/calendar.php
I wonder about the last one. Several months ago I recorded the opening bids of two auctions - one with listings in Ashburn and the other with listings in Winchester. I keep checking back with the two counties' assessors office and have found that in Ashburn, none of the homes I tracked have been recorded as recently sold; in Winchester several were sold but at much, much higher prices than the opening bid. That stands to reason, it's an auction afterall, but I think they want people to believe they are offering bargains when the offers may not actually be that good.
awip:
there was a washingtonpost article about ushomeauctions.com back in march or was it april?
these homes do have a 'mininum' bid.. if that bid isn't reached - the seller (bank) has 15 days or so to decide to let it go at that price.
Thank you for the foreclosure links everyone :-)
Ever since we signed our lease, my husband made me swear off daily "new listings" searches, and I have managed to do so (preparing for the move takes a lot of time, after all), but for old time's sake, I thought I would take a peek today, and here is a sampling:
8649 BECK Ln
MANASSAS, VA 20110
MN6765507
Price: $338,900
last sale: $659,900 8/25/2005
2008 assessment: $439,300
bank owned
(must note previous sale history for this one:
$228,600 5/2/1991
$235,000 4/2/1990)
8596 RICHMOND Ave
MANASSAS, VA 20110
MN6767939
Price: $323,900
last sale: $469,000 2/15/2007
2008 assessment: $394,700
bank owned (?)
8526 BRICKSHIRE Ln
MANASSAS, VA 20112
PW6766473
Price: $399,900
last sale: $583,865 5/24/2006
2008 assessment: $391,400
bank owned (?)
9416 BUCKHALL FARM Ct
MANASSAS, VA 20111
PW6765592
Price: $399,900
last sale: $600,000 6/1/2005
2008 assessment: $481,500
bank owned
12813 DUNBARTON Dr
BRISTOW, VA 20136
PW6767040
Price: $349,975
last sale: $511,954 8/1/2005
2008 assessment: $340,600
short sale
12027 BRISTOW VILLAGE Blvd
BRISTOW, VA 20136
PW6766730
Price: $350,000
last sale: $610,430 6/30/2006
2008 assessment: $492,400
short sale
12201 TRIPLE FALLS Ln
BRISTOW, VA 20136
PW6766618
Price: $439,900
last sale: $650,000 12/21/2005
2008 assessment: $509,300
short sale
12652 CRABTREE FALLS Dr
BRISTOW, VA 20136
PW6766869
Price: $609,900
last sale: $875,499 3/28/2006
(bank takeover $585,651 3/4/2008)
2008 assessment: $659,400
bank owned
12150 JENNELL Dr
BRISTOW, VA 20136
PW6767403
Price: $509,225
last sale: $750,576 6/3/2005
2008 assessment: $497,000
bank owned
I noted a discussion the other day about May numbers for PWC, and another guess, as several realtors guessed last month, that inventory will be down to 5 months. I will wait and see, but I just can't imagine that happening. There are still so many houses that have been for sale for one or two or more YEARS, still so many new bank-owned sales, still so many more people to decide to walk away as they are $200K, $300K, and more underwater...while some super-low-priced and aggressively marketed houses are selling, many more are not, and many that go under contract come back when the settlement never happens.
But what do I know? I've only been watching for the past couple years...
Lance said: "JF ... Why don't you buy it? Obviously it must be in good shape ... It must have been a legit sale last time ... And it must be what you're looking for ... Right?"
What is your point and why does this appear to bother you so much? Looking at the tax records, there's no reason to believe this wasn't a legit sale. Someone paid $765K for a place in N Arl, the bank took it back, and now the bank is listing it for $610K. Don't know what it will ultimately sell for...likely less than $765K.
hog
lance angrily said: "JF ... Why don't you buy it? It must be what you're looking for ... Right?"
What does what I'm looking for have to do with this example? Am I not "allowed" to discuss examples of price declines unless I am interesting in purchasing said properties? What kind of nonsense is that? I guess it's the kind of nonsense that one utters when they don't have anything substantive to say.
"Obviously it must be in good shape ..."
Do you have any reason to believe it isn't?
"It must have been a legit sale last time ..."
Sure looks like it was legit to me, considering two other units sold around the same time at close to the same price. And if it wasn't legit (i.e. it was mortgage fraud), isn't that all the more reason to think that the prices of 2005/2006 shouldn't be viewed as reasonable and sustainable?
"What is your point and why does this appear to bother you so much?"
He has been arguing for years that this couldn't possibly ever happen and he hates the fact that he is being proven wrong.
Basically he just doesn't like looking like a fool:
"It's just a regular business cycle. And we've indisputably aready bottomed out. Where does that leave you with your far fetched theory?"-Lance March 22 2007
Oh, yes, there was this front-page article in the Manassas Journal Messenger, which rehashes numbers already explored here:
"Realtors see slight rise in home sales this April over last year"
By Keith Walker
Published: May 19, 2008
Highlights:
George Lyons, the branch vice president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, said homes sold better in April 2008 than they did in April 2007.
“We were 21 percent over in April ’08 versus ’07,” Lyons said.
He thinks the statistics show that housing prices my have leveled off.
“We’ve seen a real uptick in home shoppers and homes going under contract,” Lyons said. “Housing prices in this area have adjusted to a point where they are very fair and the buyers are responding. As a result, people who couldn’t afford a home a few years ago are coming back into the market.”
Jill Landsman, media relations manager for the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors, said that while the average decrease in listing prices might not be the best news for sellers, buyers are benefitting, and any movement in the market is good.
Last year in April, the average sale price of a house in Prince William County was $405,629. This year the average house sold for $291,852, a decline of 28.05 percent.
Last April in Manassas, houses sold for an average of $325,502 compared to $222,535 this April, a decline of about 32 percent, Landsman said.
In Manassas Park the average sale price was $357,432 and $213,211 this year for a decline of 40.35 percent.
In April of 2007 there were 427 houses sold in Prince William County . This April 639 houses sold, Landsman said.
There were nine houses sold in the City of Manassas Park in April 2007 and 32 houses sold this year.
In the City of Manassas, 41 homes sold in 2007. In April of 2008, 67 houses sold in the city, Landsman said.
Houses are staying on the market for an average of 126 days across the three jurisdictions, Landsman said.
Here's another one in Arlington, specifically in correction-proof Clarendon:
2913 9TH ST N
ARLINGTON VA 22201
List Price: $609,900
Prior Sale: $765,000 7/14/06
-20.3%, $-155,100
***
Hmmmm...seems that house in N. Arlington in easy walking distance to the Orange Line wasn't firewalled-off from the slump elsewhere.
11888 Frank Haskell CT
Bristow, VA 20136
Bought: $636,665 1/31/2006
Offered: $400,000 (short sale)
% of last price: 63%
MLS#: PW6657194
http://franklymls.com/PW6657194.html
2012 UPLAND ST N
ARLINGTON, VA 22207
List Price: $669,000
Prior Sale: $462,250 12/17/2003
Listing Date: 05/09/08
+44.7%
Heres one I couldve bought back in 03 had I not listened to all the haters who told me its too expensive - dont buy - bubble! Im sure this guy is real upset he isnt getting his 750K max price and has to "settle" for a measly 200K over his 03 price.
Gosh, anonymous.
First, it ain't sold yet.
Second, I'm pretty happy I don't work with me, it looks like you really like to blame other people for your own apparent mistakes.....referring to people that urged you to use caution as "haters". It's more likely that YOU blame them (and therefore hate THEM) for what you perceive as a mistake).
A little advice for you. If not buying in 2003 was a mistake for you, YOU are the one that made it.
I am a little impressed that you managed to find anyone talking about the bubble in 2003. I didn't really convince myself that there was a bubble until 2004 time frame.
I would also caution you that it is not done. No one is calling for a recovery anytime soon. The neighborhood that I live in was up y-o-y not too many months ago. It is now down 25% y-o-y. So things can change fast.....and guess what, we still got people around here that REALLY doubt prices are dropping.
So relax and wait it out.
Whooops, meant to say "I don't work with you", not "I don't work with ME".
sidelined said...
"Whooops, meant to say "I don't work with you", not "I don't work with ME"."
I was gonna ask you about that - thanks for clearing that up.
The thing that pisses me off about the posts of Fountain and Dominic (nothing against either of you personally btw) is a hint of glee they seem to imply in that some nice areas in arlington are showing some decline - almost as if there is a sense of vindication that they were right (or perhaps more particularly, Lance is wrong).
Problem is - we need to have some sense of context here. Last month Arlington posted -2% yoy - BFD.
Areas way out there are already at 2003 prices. When are the close in areas going to get even remotely close to their 2003 levels?
Incidentally I do blame myself - I should have just listened to myself back in 03 instead of those who seemed to imply that they "knew" something about the market. Coulda Woulda Shoulda!
Why don't you just announce the bottom has passed again and tell us all we have missed our chance and better run out and buy before we are priced out forever?
lol. Yea, it always is the same response, buy now!
We've been patient. The bulls can mock us all you want, but its too obvious that waiting is the best strategy.
Ford's announcement of pretty substatial production cuts points out that we haven't hit the bottom of this economic cycle. Heck, the traditional bottom is when the government finishes balancing out spending with revenue (at the state level, not the Federal). Looking at the tax shortfalls... that hasn't happened yet.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Fellow inhabitants of Warrenton, VA: I need your help!!
I moved here two years ago having sold my home at the peak. I CANNOT FIND A HOUSE TO BUY OR A PIECE OF LAND TO BUILD ONE, largely due to my geographic requirements and my desire not to be in a McMansion subdivision.
I am looking for either a house or building lot in Old Town Warrenton (fixer upper OK)or near the Route 17 corridor North of Warrenton(I love Bellevue Farms or Blantyre Road)or off Springs Road/Lees Ridge Road.
Feel free to contact me at:
bay400@aol.com
3507 N Pershing Dr.
Arlington, VA 22201
List Price: $712,500
Prior Sale: $860,000 8/29/2005
-17.15%
Regarding the "hint of glee" over the tone of some of the posts ... Is it just me or is the the point/counterpoint increasingly getting personalized?
The folks on this blog should get together for a happy hour and humanize the experience a little.
That said, I've learned a lot from many of posters. There's good content here overall, even if there's some ego and spit to go along with it.
A few Arl listings below. The two edgewood st houses have been on the market for over 400 days. It'll be interesting to see the final sale price.
*******
MLS# AR6631449
807 LINCOLN St
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
Price: $685,000
Condition: Rehab potential
Listing price history:
Jan 11, 2008 $850,000
Jan 24, 2008 $795,000
Feb 03, 2008 $750,000
Mar 18, 2008 $699,000
May 03, 2008 $685,000
2008 Assessment: $650,300
********
MLS # AR6309218
708 EDGEWOOD St NORTH
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
Price: $1,395,000
DOM: 470 days
Listing price history:
Jul 11, 2007 $1,499,000
May 15, 2008 $1,395,000
2008 Assessment: $1,141,700
********
MLS # AR6376720
721 EDGEWOOD St NORTH
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
Price, $1,425,000
DOM: 402 days
Last sale: 6/22/2005
Sold for: $1,230,000
2008 Assessment: $912,100
********
hog
the anonymous:
The thing that pisses me off about the posts of Fountain and Dominic (nothing against either of you personally btw) is a hint of glee they seem to imply in that some nice areas in arlington are showing some decline - almost as if there is a sense of vindication that they were right (or perhaps more particularly, Lance is wrong).
Problem is - we need to have some sense of context here. Last month Arlington posted -2% yoy BFD.
The glee might be disguised fear and anger. There have been several posts about the frustration of not finding the screaming deals, because, because, the stubborn HH are not getting that their place is worth less.
I'm tracking my neighborhood, as are others. Houses are selling for high numbers, pretty much as Lance has said about his area. Why should a HH believe a blog when real buyers are throwing money at them?
That -2% YOY for Arlington. While it's apples and oranges, Montgomery Country is jacking taxes up + 13%. Half of my concern is the city grabbing more cash from me.
This point can elude renters. Years ago, I worked with a fellow who had paid off his house. "Hey, you got it knocked." Then he revealed that his taxes had risen higher than his mortgage ever was. It doesn't take too many 13% jack ups for that to happen.
KOB: Regarding the "hint of glee" over the tone of some of the posts ... Is it just me or is the the point/counterpoint increasingly getting personalized?
It's fear.
I looked hard at the numbers last night. 3/4 mill gets you an OK place in this zip. That's 75 to 100 large for a down and 6/month PITI?
10 years ago, the top crib here, 2000 RUSSELL RD, was about that much. It's on the block for 2.35 M today. In Lance-speak, you, you, you, and me are priced out of that market segment for all time.
10 years ago, I was "this close" to being able to afford it. I had a light-hearted conversation with my neighbor about going in on it. Would have been a terrific place for entertaining.
Fast forward to today and just plain places are priced like 2000 RUSSELL RD was priced.
Places on E REED, places that you would be afraid to bring your mother to, are 300 and 400.
You would think that for more than a quarter mill, you could get something decent, something without bars and a SWAT team busting in next door.
Lance's picture elicits feelings of fear and frustration and there is push-back, anger.
The only mitigation that I've found is about a 10% drop in specific market segments. That's 10% from the 2005, 2006 high. That's not enough to create screaming deals.
Hog is really cherry picking.
All those homes are ridiculously overpriced and were when they were sold to the idiots who wanted to flip them.
Homes should not sell for significantly more than their tax value. Maybe 10-20k at most. If you buy a home that is that far over its appraised value you can be sure you will lose money on it, or never be able to sell it.
Our home's tax value came back at 10% higher than our purchase price the year we bought it. Its gone up and up every year, even this year.
Not even for a car?
Mark and Elaine Hendricks recently offered their 2000 Mustang convertible as a freebie to anyone who would buy their Woodbridge house, but even that failed to distinguish it from the roughly 700 other homes for sale in their Zip code.
"We wanted to try something unusual, thinking maybe it might be crazy enough to bring somebody in," Mark Hendricks said. "But with so many houses on the market, a free car doesn't do the trick."
Frustrated home sellers are adopting extreme tactics, with mixed results, as they try to stand out in a crowded market. They're giving away prizes, sweetening commissions for agents, and trying to auction or raffle off their homes when all else fails.
These measures are another symptom of the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis. In many cases, sellers are struggling to compete with the record supply of foreclosed homes listed at rock-bottom prices. In Prince William County, for instance, the number of single-family houses listed for sale for less than $200,000 shot up 15,000 percent last month compared with a year earlier -- from 5 to 768. There was a 66 percent increase in listings under $500,000.
That's what the Hendricks family was up against when they tried to give away their Mustang. At the time, at least 30 homes were for sale within a mile of their house, they said. One similar to theirs was listed for $199,000. They were asking $375,000.
"It was probably an extreme fixer-upper, and our house is not," Mark Hendricks said. "But we had to do something. So we suggested the car idea to our agent. Why not try?"
The car failed to stir buyer interest, and they gave up on the idea after three weeks. Instead, they slashed their price a second time to $339,000.
So far, no offers, no foot traffic.
Many real estate agents say flashy giveaways are usually ineffective, and in fact, may complicate the appraisal process or give the impression that a home's base price is inflated to make up for whatever perk is offered.
The most powerful draw in a down market is setting the right price, they say, keeping in mind that the value of a home is determined by what else people can buy for the same price when they're ready to spend.
"Price is king," said Mike Schmidle, a real estate agent at Real Estate by Owner in Arlington. "Sometimes you just have to reduce it until it hurts and then some."
http://tinyurl.com/3lkle9
Two more articles from WashPost too:
Home Prices Drop Most in 17 Years
http://tinyurl.com/3euwlk
(Kinda lame, stuff we all know.)
For-Sale Pileup
http://tinyurl.com/43uq9g
Detached, single-family homes on the market under $500,000...(year-over-year percentages by county)
9282 HILLIS Ct
MANASSAS, VA 20112
PW6654620
Price: $392,900
sale history:
$378,250 2/28/2008 bank takeover
$650,000 11/7/2006
$515,000 12/27/2004
$249,900 1/31/2000
2008 assessment: $435,300
liar listing: "OVER $148K BELOW ASSESSMENT P-L-U-S $12,000 BUYERS CHOICE CONCESSION!!."
highest assessed value: $559,200/2006
I considered moving to Manassas (from Woodbridge/Lake Ridge) for about seven seconds, but then I realized that it would add 30 minutes each way to my already 60minute commute. (I take the OmniRide bus to DC, then metro as needed.)
I'm not sure what it would take, but losing another hour a day would require a rediculous deal for us... like a free house in a good neighborhood, which won't happen. Perhaps others feel this way too and aren't willing to move to Manassass.
Yeah, I was reading that article this morning about the couple trying to "sweeten" a deal by throwing in their *eight year old gas guzzler*. BlueBook value on that, assuming it's in perfect condition, fully loaded, and less than 80K miles is 6K...of course, maybe it needs a new waterpump...OGM.....
With regard to this property:
2913 9TH ST N
ARLINGTON VA 22201
List Price: $609,900
Prior Sale: $765,000 7/14/06
-20.3% $-155,100
That people were chatting about earlier in this thread...
Again, townhouse. Again, the county is valuing the land this sits on at about $300K, and, to make up the difference, values the structure at well over $300 K. But look right up the street and you'll see that the land value of 1500 square foot 3 BR 2 BA actual house is well over $500K while the value of the structure is $150K (basically replacement cost). I think the real fraud in this area centers around the fact that condos and townhouses are priced identically to (and in many cases, above) comparable single family houses in the same neighborhood. Mind boggling; I feel terrible for people who bought these things.
"I'm tracking my neighborhood, as are others. Houses are selling for high numbers, pretty much as Lance has said about his area. Why should a HH believe a blog when real buyers are throwing money at them?"
When you first started posting here you came across as pretty ignorant. At this point it is obvious you are just trolling the board.
Dollar vollume down 40%
Average price down 27%
Median sold price down 11%
Total units sold down 18.75%
Days on the market up 28%
Throwing money at them?
17 of the 31 houses show price reductions...
"The only mitigation that I've found is about a 10% drop in specific market segments. That's 10% from the 2005, 2006 high. That's not enough to create screaming deals."
Screaming deals? Funny how only you seem to ever say that... Another self appointed "bubblehead spokesperson?"
Prices are still dropping, not that I expect you to acknowledge that any time soon. It wasn't that long ago you were telling us all fairy tales about how "inside the beltway" was safe...
Now we are down to your zipcode and even that is showing significant drops with more to come.
Washington Post on Desperate House Sellers.
In many cases, sellers are struggling to compete with the record supply of foreclosed homes listed at rock-bottom prices. In Prince William County, for instance, the number of single-family houses listed for sale for less than $200,000 shot up 15,000 percent last month compared with a year earlier -- from 5 to 768. There was a 66 percent increase in listings under $500,000.
Woo-hoo.
Doug: Homes should not sell for significantly more than their tax value. Maybe 10-20k at most.
Good point Doug. Places here generally have been selling close to tax assessment but I've seen some go for much, much more.
These outliers are the pricier units, up over a mill.
Doug said: "Hog is really cherry picking. All those homes are ridiculously overpriced and were when they were sold to the idiots who wanted to flip them."
Doug, not sure how i'm cherry picking. I'm not that familiar with the Arlington market. I was looking at the 3507 N Pershing Dr listing that was posted earlier in this thread (used redfin). Redfin brought up similar houses for sale, so i checked them out. Didn't take much effort.
Sounds like we're on the same page. If what you say is true, seems like a pretty good example of what happens in a bubble market.
hog
By cherry picking I am suggesting that your examples are more indicative of poor decisions by stupid buyers than they are of true "value decline".
Now if the house had its tax appraisal drop by those amounts I would agree that there are some major problems with the housing market in Clarendon.
But IMO, this is more of a "skimming of the froth".
Novahog said:
"seems like a pretty good example of what happens in a bubble market."
That's the problem ... You knew what you were looking for and chose examples that exemplified it ... all the while ignoring the much more numerous examples which didn't exemplify it. Hence you cherry picked. Another way to look at it, you are justifying your decision and not looking for facts which may lead you to a different decision.
"By cherry picking I am suggesting that your examples are more indicative of poor decisions by stupid buyers than they are of true "value decline"."
This is the same thing we heard when Harriet started posting this information for areas out west.
These sorts of declines always start slowly as first when the market is transitioning.
Doug said: "By cherry picking I am suggesting that your examples are more indicative of poor decisions by stupid buyers than they are of true "value decline". Now if the house had its tax appraisal drop by those amounts I would agree that there are some major problems with the housing market in Clarendon."
Here are the tax assessments for the three properties i listed above. Again, i'm not familiar with the Arlington market. Two had a reduced assessment for 2008. 708 N EDGEWOOD was built in 2008, so i would expect that assessment to be much higher than 2007.
807 N LINCOLN ST:
2008 - $650,300
2007 - $699,500
2006 - $679,900
2005 - $587,000
From 2007->2008, -$50K
**********
708 N EDGEWOOD ST:
2008 - $1,141,700
2007 - $515,000 (all land value)
There's also a separate parcel ID for this address. Not sure how that works...i guess there were multiple building lots.
**********
721 N EDGEWOOD ST:
2008 - $912,100
2007 - $1,016,400
2006 - $1,015,600
2005 - $824,300
From 2007->2008, -$104K
**********
hog
Exactly - you proved my point - the loss in tax value is MUCH smaller than the drops in sales prices, showing again that N. Arlington has lost on average 5-10% from its absolute peak. A few have gained, some have stayed the same, while most have shown very modest declines.
Thanks for proving my point!
Lance said: "That's the problem ... You knew what you were looking for and chose examples that exemplified it ... all the while ignoring the much more numerous examples which didn't exemplify it. Hence you cherry picked...."
I ran across a few examples of bubble activity and found them...what can i say? I figured some of the people familiar with Arlington would chime in.
"...you are justifying your decision and not looking for facts which may lead you to a different decision"
What decision? To post a few examples?
You have that "everyone's out to get me" tone. Try to relax a little.
hog
Leroy said:
"These sorts of declines always start slowly as first when the market is transitioning."
Hope lives eternal ...
KH opened my eyes this morning as to the great fear and anxiety you must be experiencing. I am sorry if my "shooting straight" has intensified these feelings for you. I really want to help you through this rough spot. We all want to help you. It must be hard being in your situation. The problem is though ... "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink". Drink up Leroy!
Novahog asked:
"What decision? To post a few examples?"
No ... the "decision" that there is a bubble. Rather than looking to substantiate that decision/belief, you are looking to justify it. To substantiate it would mean considering all the info available and coming to a decision as to the validity of your belief. Posting a "few examples" of items you think support your belief doesn't accomplish much because as Doug pointed out they illustrate bad decision making in a number of specific cases and not a general lowering of prices. Do you understand now?
bay400,
You checked the MLS? There's a lot on High Street for about $150K.
There's also a newish listing in Bellevue for under $500K.
Warrenton is weird, I will admit. Little houses are cheaper in parts of Loudoun and parts of Fairfax, which wasn't the case five years ago.
Are you working with an agent?
Doug said: "Thanks for proving my point!"
Hey, if it makes you feel better, glad i could help.
It amazes me that you guys get all worked up over a few examples.
So, if i understand correctly, doug and lance are OK as long as we ignore the “ridiculously overpriced houses” that were sold to flippers.
I think i got it now.
hog
the loss in tax value is MUCH smaller than the drops in sales prices
I guess it's not always true -- this looks kind of strange:
7 Garfield Street
Alrington, VA 22201
List Price: $699,000
Prior Sale: $746,900 7/26/2007
-6.4%
2007 tax assessment: $971,800
2008 tax assessment: $821,600
-15.5%
Lance said: "No ... the "decision" that there is a bubble. Rather than looking to substantiate that decision/belief, you are looking to justify it. To substantiate it would mean considering all the info available and coming to a decision as to the validity of your belief..."
Wow, I didn't realize i had been given the task of proving there is/was a bubble. I'll start working on that immediately.
hog
leroy said...
These sorts of declines always start slowly as first when the market is transitioning.
Exactly right. I've been watching my sister's neighborhood in Montgomery Co. They bought just about the time we sold, in 2005. I suppose if I'd followed Lance's stereotype of a bubblehead I would have urged them not to buy, but I didn't. Despite their realtor's pushing them to take out an option arm in order to be able to 'afford' (read qualify for) a much more expensive place, they got conventional financing and used traditional measures of what was 'affordable' (i.e. no more than 3 times income).
I didn't think that neighborhood was particularly overpriced everything considered -- mostly 50's era single family homes generally in the mid 300's, within easy walking distance of the metro and shopping. And I thought we might buy a place there ourselves if we decided to stay in the area.
Prices continued to rise, although not as much as before-- until just this fall. They'd crept up to the low 400's. Then all of a sudden, it changed. Nothing coming onto the market was over 400 and most of the ones already on the market had their prices cut. Now there's almost nothing over $400 thousand and there are 15 or 20 properties under $300 thousand.
It looks like my sister & brother-in-law's place has dropped in value about $100,000. This wouldn't be a problem if they were younger-- my b-i-l makes six figures and my sister's just gotten a decent raise-- but they're both in their sixties and were hoping to retire in a few years. Looks like that's simply not an option now for the foreseeable future.
I'm still astonished at how fast and how far prices have fallen in what was a nice stable, decently priced neighborhood.
harriet,
I do find Warrenton/Fauquier area very weird. For example the following are the # of detached places for sale in 50k increments from ZipRealty in Fauquier Co.
150-200 = 29
200-250 = 47
250-300 = 74
300-350 = 69
350-400 = 89
400-450 = 61
450-500 = 47
500-550 = 48
550-600 = 46
600-650 = 27
Now based upon statistics I believe you would normally see some sort of bell-shaped distribution.
Also April's Detached MOI from MRIS
100-150 = 5
150-200 = 4.82
200-250 = 7.42
250-300 = 16.2
300-350 = 9.57
350-400 = 14.166
400-450 = 31.5
450-500 = 11.5
500-550 = 44.5
550-600 = 44.5
600-650 = 22
Put that in conjunction with April detached Avg = ~356k. From this I have to say that it looks like Fauquier Co. will continue to fall for the foreseeable future (6-12 months).
Personally, I can't wait until Warrenton is finally hit . . . it's starting to happen, but it is taking some time.
So, if i understand correctly, doug and lance are OK as long as we ignore the “ridiculously overpriced houses” that were sold to flippers.
Sure, either that or you choose to accept some house sales that have appreciated since the peak.
Check out
1930 RHODE ISLAND AVE MC LEAN, VA 22101
Oct 28, 2005 $975,000
Feb 11, 2008 $1,950,000
Looks like the housing market is going through the roof in Mclean!
See thats called cherry picking. Want me to find some more? Its not hard.
1740 DUMBARTON ST MC LEAN, VA 22101
Sep 21, 2005 $795,000
Feb 01, 2008 $1,585,000
6140 OLD DOMINION DR MC LEAN, VA 22101
Aug 02, 2004 $1,600,000
Dec 20, 2007 $2,675,000
Groceries at Safeway and Giant are 20% off today! I'm so happy!!
Can you sense my glee? Does it offend you?
Of course some of us have glee that house prices are falling - why shouldn't we? Isn't paying less for something, whether its groceries or housing, a fact that we should be gleeful about?
It's complete nonsense that some on this blog are suggesting that it is in poor taste to be happy about more affordable house prices.
1524 CRESTWOOD LN MC LEAN, VA 22101
Jul 22, 2005 $900,000
Mar 24, 2008 $1,268,000
If Harriot actually decided to be fair and post the top home sale price gains next to the drops, I think a LOT of people on this board would look very very foolish when talking about prime real estate inside the beltway.
But hey, its much easier to tell one side of the story.
Doug said...
"1740 DUMBARTON ST MC LEAN, VA 22101
Sep 21, 2005 $795,000
Feb 01, 2008 $1,585,000"
Are you trying to prove that prices are still climbing? If so, it might be better to use examples unlike the one above, in which a lot was purchased in 2005 and a completely new house was built in 2007. The prior land sale is hardly comparable to the subsequent new house sale.
Do you even look at these examples before you post them?
How do you know it was torn down?
doug said..."If Harriot actually decided to be fair and post the top home sale price gains next to the drops, I think a LOT of people on this board would look very very foolish when talking about prime real estate inside the beltway."
I think it looks foolish to compare a land sale with the subsequent sale of a newly built house in order to present a picture of what are supposedly "top home sale price gains," but what do I know.
When comparing Arlington prices on just a handful of examples, people need to bear in mind several things:
1) Arlington assessed values by design lag the market considerably. Officially, taxes paid in June 2008, for example, reflect values from July 1, 2006 - June 30, 2007, SOMETIMES with some adjustment for sales after June 30, 2007.
2) Arlington generally does not discount assessed values for properties in bad condition nor increase the valuation for homes with expensive updates. One exception is if you add square footage and get proper permits (if you don't get permits, they may not know and might not increase the valuation), then AC will likely bump up the assessed value.
3) People here tend to look only at the listing prices and assessed valuations (if they don't have a current sold price). But there is a HUGE variation in market value from one house to the next, even within the same neighborhood, in condition and investment in updates. For example, it is not hard at all to spend $200K or more on a neglected former rental small 40s Colonial or Cape, just to get new systems, roof, landscaping, windows, etc. And you may still not have enough to cover a beautiful new kitchen, new baths, etc. So when you compare House A with House B that is just down the street, same size and age, Arlington could show the same assessed value, but the houses may sell for dramatically different prices - not because one buyer is stupid and the other is savvy.
4) In practice, Arlington's assessed values for homes with lots of updates, until 2005 or 2006, were--for homes with expensive updates-- pretty far below the actual market values. So, rather than slashing the assessed values for most homes, Arlington has simply left the assessed values or adjusted them only slightly, and let the market catch up (or catch down). So, the fact that Arlington hasn't slashed the assessed values does not mean there has been no decline in market value since 2006.
What I mean is, how do you tell from property records?
Doug said... "How do you know it was torn down?"
When a listing says "Year Built: 2007" and "Stunning new construction," that's a pretty good indicator.
It sounds like you are posting properties about which you are completely unfamiliar. That doesn't help your cause.
doug said: "...See thats called cherry picking. Want me to find some more? Its not hard."
If someone posts an example of a house increasing in value since "the peak", that's fine. I'm sure they exist out there. But comparing the sale of a tear-down to the new house that was built in its place? That's not cherry picking, that's just being silly.
hog
Sarah, it was never 'stable' in the first place.
beyond 2002 was unstable.
Doug,
They don't know that it was a tear-down ... or a lot. They just know that it runs counter to their firmly held beliefs ... So, they look to find reasons to dispell what you tell them. And of course, they will focus only on that one single example you gave that they think could be dispelable. Did you notice how they completely ignored/put-their-hands-over-their-ears about all the other fine examples you gave? They also managed to change the subject from "let's examine ALL the evidence" to "could Doug have been wrong about this one lone example". Deep down they know they're wrong. But accepting the truth is so scary ... that they'd rather not face it.
If Harriot actually decided to be fair and post the top home sale price gains next to the drops, I think a LOT of people on this board would look very very foolish when talking about prime real estate inside the beltway.
In all fairness she does post the increases. Just click on the last Arlington link.
See Arlington County 5/21/2008 for more comparisons from this week's listings.
Many of the big increases were purchased prior to 2005.
Two questions about this property:
3125 Arlington Blvd.
Arlington, VA 22201
Not listed
Purchased 7/13/2005 for $660,000.
Bank foreclosed 6/29/2007 for
$547,878
2008 tax assessment: $652,700.
2007 tax assessment: $649,100.
1. Why didn’t someone outbid the bank at the foreclosure sale?
2. What is the bank’s strategy [Why are they holding the property]?
Lance said: "They don't know that it was a tear-down ... or a lot. They just know that it runs counter to their firmly held beliefs ... So, they look to find reasons to dispell what you tell them. And of course, they will focus only on that one single example you gave that they think could be dispelable. Did you notice how they completely ignored/put-their-hands-over-their-ears about all the other fine examples you gave? They also managed to change the subject..."
Thank you for this little gem Lance, but i'm guessing Doug already realizes these are not very good examples. Put on your thinking cap and enlighten us...
1930 RHODE ISLAND AVE MC LEAN, VA 22101
Oct 28, 2005 $975,000
Feb 11, 2008 $1,950,000
Year Built - 2007 according to the tax records
*********
1740 DUMBARTON ST MC LEAN, VA 22101
Sep 21, 2005 $795,000
Feb 01, 2008 $1,585,000
Year Built - 2007 according to the tax records
*********
6140 OLD DOMINION DR MC LEAN, VA 22101
Aug 02, 2004 $1,600,000
Dec 20, 2007 $2,675,000
The tax records only show a history of two sales:
12/20/2007 - $2,675,000
11/29/2007 - $0
It's 2.7351 acres (again, according to the tax records)
Current Land $2,030,000
Current Building $10,000
Current Assessed Total $2,040,000
*********
1524 CRESTWOOD LN MC LEAN, VA 22101
Jul 22, 2005 $900,000
Mar 24, 2008 $1,268,000
Year Built 1957
Year Addition - 2007 according to the tax records
hog
novahog:
Right and with respect to
6140 Old Dominion Drive
When it sold in 2004 a house constructed in 1900 and an addition constructed in 1984 were on the land. It looks like the last sale was to a builder. I noticed that the zoning is now R-2, or 2 dwelling units per acre; therefore, the builder is likely to build 5 houses on the property. If you click on "values," on the left hand side, you will see the tax history on the property. The tax history starts with 2008. Also, you will see that the county allocated a nominal value ($10,000) to the building, as it expects the house to be torn down. In other words, the builder purchased 5 building lots.
"How do you know it was torn down?"
Because the Fairfax tax database says so?
"Year Built 2007"
Also, the tax database says it is 5000 sqft above ground. Does this (dated images) look like 5,178 sq ft?
http://www.zillow.com/aerial/DualMapPage.htm?zpid=51758781
Guys, guys, guys. Of course there's a story of something "unique" occuring in the case of each one of the places which have gone up in value by a lot. Just like there's a story of something "unique" occuring in the case of each one of the places which have gone down in value by a lot.
You've just proved Doug's point that it's just as easy to find "garbage data" on the high side as it is on the low side.
Dr Phil or Mr. Lance??
I am sorry if my "shooting straight" has intensified these feelings for you. I really want to help you through this rough spot. We all want to help you. It must be hard being in your situation.
Teasing aside, inside the beltway prices are flat, rising, or falling slightly depending on what you're looking at.
Condo conversions are probably the softest with older THs next. SFH, at least around here are rising.
Out there, beyond the beltway and especially beyond, say, an hours drive, prices for all classes of dwelling are way off.
So much of the discussion focuses on the better parts of Arlington and not PWC. It's as if no one cares about what's way out there.
Perhaps that's why prices have fallen in PWC and not close in.
Over to you, Dr. Phil.
Lance said: "...You've just proved Doug's point that it's just as easy to find "garbage data" on the high side as it is on the low side.
Lance, this has to be an act, right? You can't possibly believe your own spin.
hog
Inside Look: Real Estate Owned Gets Jumbo-Sized
For lenders, a growing glut of high-end REO can particularly problematic, according to IAS CEO David McCarthy.
“The carry cost is so much greater,” he said. Carry cost typically refers to the amount of money needed to “carry” an asset on the lender’s books, and includes accrued taxes, property maintenance, and the like; traditional cost of carry can run roughly 2.5 percent of a property’s value.
The result, McCarthy said, is that many servicers and their investors are placing extra attention on the valuation of higher-end properties, in an effort to make sure that they can sell more quickly and keep loss severity as low as possible.
“I think many are taking a closer look at the prices they get, and are spending more time to estimate value” in those markets that have been hit the hardest, McCarthy suggested.
In part, the push to ensure accurate valuation is a reflection of the carrying cost and the desire to limit loss; it’s also a reflection of the fact that more consumers are now looking at REOs as a potential investment, given the higher price points involved.
And given that most experts expect the housing market to get worse before it gets better, despite the growth in so-called jumbo REOs already, most experts believe that the number of higher-priced bank-owned properties will only increase throughout the rest of this year.
“We’re just now seeing Alt-A and prime delinquencies begin their climb,” said one source, an MBS analyst who asked not to be named. “That means a whole lot of deluxe REO is on its way.”
http://tinyurl.com/5x3kaz
Here's a little bit of my methodology on finding data:
If the Fairfax County tax record has something marked "not fair market value" at the time of the sale I don't include it on my lists. Prince William does that, too. If the property has an "other bad sale" marker I leave those off, too.
For Loudoun, if something looks questionable I check the assessment at the time of the sale. If it's close enough, I include the sale. I do the same for Arlington. If it's a family-member sale or an estate sale, for example, I try to leave it off. And I always leave off new construction. That is absolutely not a same-house sale. Renovations are harder for me to figure out, as I have no idea how much value they added or didn't. I usually include them.
But if it's a bank sale, I think it's useful to include that listing even if the prior sale seemed ridiculously high and above-market. Because we know that somebody somewhere defrauded the bank. And when I start adding them all up in my mind, I know it will matter to the whole economy.
zerodown, with respect to 3125 Arlington Blvd: the house has sold for $510,000, it just hasn't shown up in the county tax records yet.
hog: You can't possibly believe your own spin.
You can't call spin when the argument from the BH side has been that prices will fall close in, because, because, because, and the talk is, just wait, it'll be next year.
Hasn't anyone noticed that for the last 4 years, there's been a wall at the beltway.
Prices outside the wall have fallen 20%, 30% or more.
Prices inside the wall have not. This is not like a forest fire that will jump the wall.
There are reasons why it's been like that for 4 years. Lance has detailed them. The recent jump in gas prices is another. (then there's gas rationing!)
The fact that a NARL (a developer) buys a place, does a knock-down, is not a sign of a distressed neighborhood. It's a sign that real estate in the area is running up.
Doug's research was poor but his conclusion was correct.
The knock-down and much higher listing may not indicate that the old place went up in price.
It does indicate that someone put serious coin down and is betting on higher prices forward. Same dirt, new crib.
KH said:
"It does indicate that someone put serious coin down and is betting on higher prices forward. Same dirt, new crib."
What a thought! ... buying/building in an area where you expect prices to rise .... and not where you expect them to drop.
BTW ... the last several days I've experienced minor vandalism at the house. Missing lawn ornaments, toppled bird bath, stuffed animal left where the missing ornament had been before it disappeared ... I can't help but wonder if we have a BH on here who is childish and vindictive ...
Lance: I've experienced minor vandalism at the house. Missing lawn ornaments, toppled bird bath, stuffed animal left where the missing ornament had been before it disappeared ...
You're a tech-type person, right?
Here, get one of these and a couple security cameras.
kh said: "You can't call spin when the argument from the BH side has been that prices will fall close in..."
How about "you can't call spin because it's Saturday..."
Since some people think prices are on their way down, lance is justified in making rambling, nonsense arguments?
kh said: "...Hasn't anyone noticed that for the last 4 years, there's been a wall at the beltway..."
Last i checked, Falls Church City was inside the beltway. Can you please explain to me why values have dropped here over the last few years?
Even though FCC increased the tax rate, they realized the average tax bill would drop.
"...That’s due to the fact that a sharp average drop in residential real estate values will more than offset the three-cent increase in the tax rate..."
Maybe it is possible for prices to come down close in?
hog
Hog: Maybe it is possible for prices to come down close in?
It certainly is possible.
And in fact, in some classes of unit, inside the beltway prices are soft.
One example is Alexandria, out just past condo-canyon, east of 395 and south of Duke.
Folk in Old Town, Del Ray, Northridge don't consider than close in but it's still a part of Alexandria.
South Arlington, around 4 Mile run, prices are likely soft there (I haven't checked.)
Old walkups and high rises converted to Condos, 50 year old TH's.
Check out places that you would prefer not to live in, they've probably has gone flat or dropped 10%.
Places that you could see yourself living in, maybe waxing the Fatboy in front, those are not cheap and not getting cheaper.
KH said:
"You're a tech-type person, right?
Here, get one of these and a couple security cameras."
Thanks! You know more than the folks at Best Buy ... I've asked a couple of times if such a card existed ... and they didn't have a clue what I was asking for ... I've got the cops on look out for now, but I think one of these cards (and cams) would be a good investment.
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