| 653 STUART CT HERNDON, VA 20170 List Price: $289,900 Listing Date: 05/05/08 |
Prior Sales:
04/04/2008 $323,000 to JP Morgan Chase Bank
12/08/2005 $510,000
02/15/2005 $450,000
08/13/2004 $389,000
01/23/2004 $330,000
08/02/2001 $257,000
10/29/1998 $190,000
09/08/1986 $117,000
48 comments:
Some sample recent Manassas sales:
10101 HOLLAND CT
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$299,900 3/17/2008
last sale: $485,000 3/22/2005
bank takeover 8/10/2007
last asking price: $299,999
dropped from $399,999 to $299,999 in one reduction
2008 assessed value $384,800
10185 BENS WAY
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$352,000 2/7/2008
last sale: $620,000 11/1/2005
bank takeover 7/25/2007
last asking price: $394,900
2008 assessed value $492,400
8537 STONEWALL RD
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$340,000 1/9/2008
last sale: $530,000 9/29/2005
bank takeover 6/25/2007
2008 assessed value $365,700
Wait...kids need me...more later...
An interesting property for sure in regards to the sales history. Does seem that many folks got rich off the place over the years.
2005 does match up with my impressions of the downturn in some parts of Herndon.
Been busy on many levels since closing on the 29th on my condo in Reston. So been away from this blog for a bit. Set to move in fully on the 23rd of this month.
The closing went well - except there was a glitch in the mortgage rate, lucky my mortgage agent was there to get the proper paperwork done.
As some will remember I mentioned that this was a Countrywide property. Found out at closing that that was only partially true.
"Bank of New York As Trustee for Certificateholders " was listed as the seller in my settlement statement. No one could explain why Countrywide was the one that handled the final sale of the property.
To Tabithia - saw your post about renting till closer to end of the year. Could be a good choice in the long run with your husband leaving the Marines and no solid job offer out there as of yet.
If my math is correct, the sales between 2001 and 2005 generated about $116K in commissions. That’s pretty impressive for a house that sold for $190K in 1998.
hog
Chip,
Interesting you should mention that about "Bank of New York as trustee" for Countrywide. The Countrywide foreclosure we negotiated for also had that wording on its documents. I wonder what that means.
I'll post more recent Manassas sales today, when I have a moment of peace...
But quickly, just to show that our lives are never dull...
Yesterday, we got a call from someone else in our neighborhood who heard we were looking to buy or rent. They tried to sell all last year, then gave up in August 2007 and rented to a Marine family. Then the Marine got orders, and had to break the lease, so the owner was desperately trying to find a new renter, or even someone to buy ASAP. We went to see the house, and really liked it, at least for a rental--unlike the other house we were going to rent, it has a basement, has slightly bigger rooms, and they were charging less for rent. So we told them we would rent, and depending on my husband's job situation, we might even buy eventually. They paid $199K in 1999, so the sale price might be reasonable, though they started by asking $569K last year.
Then we agonized over telling the other people we weren't going to rent after all...only to find an email waiting for us from them, saying they had decided to rent to another family who was willing to sign a 4-year lease.
So all's well that ends well, right?
And before Lance complains that we are living too well, it's a 2,600 sqft house, so the nine of us will be quite cozy, and there's a fireplace for our cat.
Tabitha,
Very cool!
Tabitha said...
"Chip,
Interesting you should mention that about "Bank of New York as trustee" for Countrywide. The Countrywide foreclosure we negotiated for also had that wording on its documents. I wonder what that means."
Even though we use the word "mortgage" when talking financing for homes, in fact mortgages aren't used much anymore in a number of states including Virginia. In their place something called a "trust agreement" (or something like that) is used instead. In a mortgage there are 2 parties, the lender and the debtor. In a trust agreement there are 3 parties involed ... lender, debtor, and trustee. By having the 3rd party involved (the Bank of New York in this case), the foreclosure process get shortened substantially (if and when needed.) I forget why ... other than that it has something to do with circumventing state laws that would allow a person being foreclosed on to slow the process if the person they owe the money to is the same person (or entity) that has the right to foreclose. By splitting those two things, it's faster, cleaner, and easier to foreclose.
First, biggest one-time price drop I have seen:
13609 CHAPEL TOWN Mews
BRISTOW, VA 20136
Price: $499,900
previous price: $669,900
(bank-owned)
Then, more Manassas:
8363 TILLETT LOOP
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$340,000 4/21/2008
bank takeover 8/3/2007
last sale $560,000 6/28/2005
first sale $332,850 2/3/2003
2008 assessed value $439,900
10224 MALVERN CT
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$295,000 4/18/2008
bank takeover 10/1/2007
last sale $266,400 2/19/2003
2008 assessed value $383,600
9276 LINDEN CT
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$257,250 4/14/2008
bank takeover 12/21/2007
last sale $460,000 4/4/2006
previous sale $153,500 9/21/1998
2008 assessed value $352,000
9499 BANKHEAD DR
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$350,000 3/4/2008
first sale $331,575 9/17/2002
2008 assessed value $393,500
10151 STRAWFLOWER LN
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$350,000 2/28/2008
previous sale $320,000 4/24/2003
first sale $214,175 8/16/1990
2008 assessed value $383,100
8212 WARFIELD ST
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$361,000 2/27/2008
bank takeover 11/21/2007
last sale $470,000 1/3/2005
first sale $291,295 9/20/2001
2008 assessed value $415,900
8367 TILLETT LOOP
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$340,000 2/19/2008
bank takeover 1/25/2008
first sale $402,430 1/21/2004
2008 assessed value $431,800
9430 STILSON DR
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$210,000 2/1/2008
first sale $351,965 10/6/2003
2008 assessed value $422,600
10011 WILLOW GROVE TRL
MANASSAS, VA 20110
$340,000 1/29/2008
bank takeover 9/26/2007
last sale $485,000 6/10/2005
previous sale $169,000 1/3/1995
2008 assessed value $355,300
Note that many of these houses were purchased before the 2008 assessments came out, so their tax assessed values were about 20% higher at the time of purchase.
I may seem out of touch here, but are you kidding me, 4 house flips in less than 2 years!!! I knew there were flippers out there, but I never saw anything like this in all the househunting I did. Was this really that common? Did the market really get that out of whack for a while?
"Did the market really get that out of whack for a while?"
It was a new paradigm.
Tabitha/Chip. If you were taking title from a completed foreclosure, the trustee takes title via a trustee's deed. The trustee) then conveyes the property to you at settlement. They are obligated to do this on behalf of Countrywide via the original agrement (i.e. the 3 party trust agreement Lance mentioned) between them, Countrywide and the now foreclosed original borrower.
Incidentally, Lance, I have to ask how do you know this? I disagree with you on somethings but you clearly have a working knowleged of the law (much more than 95% of the realtors ive met).
Leroy said...
""Did the market really get that out of whack for a while?"
It was a new paradigm."
... The Washington that they envision is far more cosmopolitan, in the spirit of Paris or London, national capitals better known for a wide variety of attractions: vibrant neighborhoods, scenic riverfronts, pedestrian-jammed sidewalks, art museums, shopping and fine cuisine. ...
"We're going to see a new paradigm over the next decade, wherein the city is recapturing the water and its own image, ...
Looking Past the Capital City
A Reinvented D.C. Could Offer New Destinations in All Directions
By Paul Schwartzman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 9, 2008; Page B01
http://tiny.cc/djZG4
"Did the market really get that out of whack for a while?"
Yep, a whole new breed of scumbag emerged in the area, outbidding people who wanted to live there then dumping the loans on the bank when they didnt pan out.
Ive seen a few in my neighborhood.
crt asked:
"Incidentally, Lance, I have to ask how do you know this? I disagree with you on somethings but you clearly have a working knowleged of the law (much more than 95% of the realtors ive met)."
My dad was a real estate broker ... so, you might say I grew up in the business. I also passed the exam and held an agent's license for a while ... although I never really used it. I guess that's why I under "the business" and also know that what we're going through we've gone through many times before. Most particularly, what's happening now is very much what happened in the 70s. In my "humble" opinion, there are many options out there for people just looking to find themselves a home, but waiting for prices to collapse is not the best one. Yes, it's a viable alternative ... just not the best one. Finding a home in an area with real potentional and locking in your payments on it in my opinion is the best way to weather the coming inflationary storm we (and the country) are steering directly into.
Lance:
Actually, in Virginia, you can have a non-judicial foreclosure sale with either a mortgage or a deed of trust, as long as the instrument contains a “power of sale” clause.
A "‘power of sale’ clause is the clause in a deed of trust or mortgage, in which the borrower pre-authorizes the sale of property to pay off the balance on a loan in the event of the their default. In deeds of trust or mortgages where a power of sale exists, the power given to the lender to sell the property may be executed by the lender or their representative, typically referred to as the trustee.”
I really like how you cut the attribution off that quote lance...
""We're going to see a new paradigm over the next decade, wherein the city is recapturing the water and its own image," said Monty Hoffman, chief executive officer of PN Hoffman, which is developing the Southwest waterfront."
Gee, the developer has nice things to say about their own project. I am shocked to learn that... generally they are so pessimistic about their projects...
Lance said
"Finding a home in an area with real potentional and locking in your payments on it in my opinion is the best way to weather the coming inflationary storm we (and the country) are steering directly into."
This is sound advice. I can't believe I just said that.
There are two contradicting problems we have:
1. House prices are dropping like a rock.
2. Inflation is launching to the moon.
So the million dollar question is when does inflation start leveling this whole game out?
Well, I think it happens when rents start to stablize. Right now rents are on the slow decline. When you see the free month rent deals go away, that may be a good indicator that things are starting to stablize. Either way you do it, its a risk.
Buy now, prices could fall alot more.
Rent now, and inflation could tear up your savings.
Its a gamble either way.
"Finding a home in an area with real potentional and locking in your payments on it in my opinion is the best way to weather the coming inflationary storm we (and the country) are steering directly into."
Which is exactly the same thing you were saying in 2006 while claiming there was no bubble...
I guess you weren't exactly spot-on with that now were you?
I suppose on a long enough timeline inflation is likely to intensify, it always does, but "locking in" your payments at inflated levels in a falling market... lets just say that is a pretty terrible plan.
There are plenty of other inflation hedges...
Thought you guys might find this interesting.
There is currently an argument going on between some realtors and other posters about Manhattan Beach price drops in the last california downturn:
http://mbcon.blogspot.com/
The general consensus has been that it is "different here", for any number of reasons....gentrifying, best school district that is driveable to downtown, everyone wants to live here...etc, etc.
It is repeatedly posted that prices dropped only 10-15% in the last downturn per local realtors and the MLS.
Someone purchased historical data from DQnews going back 20-years. DQnews uses tax recorded sales, not realtor reported numbers.
It shows that prices here previously dropped 41%, not adjusted for inflation....that's quite a bit different than "10-15%" which is quoted by the realtors. Being busted, one realtor poster pulled off 20% from the MLS (they've had access all along, but seem to prefer letting people think the drops were minimal). Still some discrepency, maybe due to foreclosures or something.
The other interesting thing is that our local sales volume is lower than it has been in at least 20 years, and it has been that way for more than a year.
Anyway, food for thought. I would say don't believe the myths that are being spread, this housing bubble was the biggest in history, and the downturn is pretty big as well.
Sidelined, thanks for that note about ReaLIARtors.
Just on Sunday, I stopped short of telling an agent he was uninformed, willfully ignorant, a liar, or a combination of all three...
Yeah, I've always questioned their numbers. It is pretty easy to zillow properties and find previous sales history....lots of houses took massive dump in prices. Flatly denied by realtors. However, with the big drop in sales (2007 lowest here in more than 20 years, 2008 year-to-date running HALF of what it did in same time period last year), they seem to be a little quieter.
Why is this interesting to Northern Virginia?
I hear a lot of the same nonsense on this blog that I hear in LA.
"prices won't drop because of the traffic" >>>what changed in 2001? And why did the outerlying suburbs go up even MORE in the bubble? If it's traffic, it must mean traffic is desirable?
"things are getting better, the neighborhood is changing" Yeah, right. With a bunch or real estate over investment, EVERYWHERE gets better. The other half of the cycle is the downturn. THat's when NOTHING gentrifies.
"people make more here, this is where the jobs are" So the jobs just started in 2001? Or salaries took a big increase? I guess everyone in the exurbs just took big pay cuts?
Don't believe the bull.
Sidelined...
Can I ask, what precisely is your point? Are you alleging that there is some sort of MLS conspiracy to show the inner areas of DC are doing better than the outer areas?
The MLS data we commonly use on this blog shows small price drops for the tiny inner DC areas (10,000 sales a year) and moderate to catastrophic drops for the huge outer DC areas (80,000+ sales a year). Are you suggesting the Realitors are manipulating sales & price data to make it look better close in?
If so, are they willing to screw the outer area (and ALLLL those potential sales that butter their bread) to make some tiny area buyers feel "its a great time to buy"?
Further, has this DC MLS group duped so much of the national media, the washington post, the wall street journal, even the parent company for the case shiller index, all of which have said "inner areas are not falling as much as the outer areas"?
I think most reasonable bloggers around here realize the data we use is not perfect - and probably far from it. At the end of the day, it probably skews one way or the other. However whatever skewing there is is not dictated by geography.
If it was skewing by geography something tells me the Realitors would be shouting from the rooftops (to 90% of the potential buying audience instead of the 10% core group) IT SKEWS TO THE CORE, THE OUTER AREAS ARE HOLDING UP TOO, ITS NOT DIFFERENT ANYWHERE!!!
Wouldnt you think so too?
The anonymous, my point is very, very simple.
I keep hearing on this blog how things in certain portions of NVA are "different" and will not drop, even though outer suburbs have plunged.
I happen to live in a very expensive part of Los Angeles that is also supposed to be "different". I have heard many times that it is special here, and will not drop in price for many, many reasons. Even thought the outer suburbs of Los Angeles are plunging.
So (here is the part to pay attention to), prices here are dropping rapidly, even though a few months ago it was purported that things were "different".
It turns out, even though everyone wants to live here, and it has the best schools, it is gentrifying, this area is in fact dropping because the housing bubble is popping.
What I am saying is that it is probably not different there! Unless you can come up with a reason for it that makes sense (perhaps oil fields under the Potomac or some such).
I am trying to give you some hope! I am pretty happy to see all the nonsense "it's different here" turn out to be not so true after all.
PS, before you give me a bunch of crap about posting here, I was actually born in Fairfax and go to Arlington for work a few times a year. I spent most of my life in Virginia.
So relax and wait.
The bad news is that housing downturns typically take 4-6 years to bottom. In LA last time, the best neighborhoods bottom last, but bottomed fast when it finally happened....thirty percent drops in less than a year.
The other bad news is that DC is expected to botom in 2012 per housing futures contracts.
Sidelined - I have no issue with the position if you will "prices will fall here too". That is very defensible and something I agree with.
What I have a serious problem with is variations of the argument "the data is wrong" or "the drops are already here, you just cant see them" etc. We have some bloggers who take this sort of position with nothing to support it other than anecdotes and the like and I really cant stand that. Just because I want something to happen doesnt mean I will deny the reality of what looks to be solid data or try and debate it using anecdotes to the contrary.
If you are saying the former and not the latter fair enough. Incidentally, the new sales data just came out on the front page - more of the same, core areas doing OK outer areas not so much - I guess we will just have to keep waiting.
The Anonymous said...
“Can I ask, what precisely is your point? Are you alleging that there is some sort of MLS conspiracy to show the inner areas of DC are doing better than the outer areas?”
The MRIS/MLS numbers have been proven to be skewed. Now, as far as inner vs. outer “conspiracy”, I dunno. Maybe a group of like mined realtors focused on the inner areas are collaborating. Possible? Yep, and it should come as no surprise to anyone that’s paid some attention. Heck, I’m wondering why my local MRIS data is showing 40 fewer properties than my realtor.com search.
Robert said...
"Maybe a group of like mined realtors focused on the inner areas are collaborating."
Recall my earlier post where I said: "What I have a serious problem with is variations of the argument "the data is wrong" or "the drops are already here, you just cant see them" etc. We have some bloggers who take this sort of position with nothing to support it other than anecdotes and the like."
Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to offer Robert's testimony into evidence as exhibit A...
robert asked:
"Heck, I’m wondering why my local MRIS data is showing 40 fewer properties than my realtor.com search."
Realtor.com lags ... by a lot. Those 40 fewer properties have been sold!
DC housing prices don't look all that rosy from where I'm standing.
NoVA's been sneezing, now DC has the cold.
The Anonymous said...
“Recall my earlier post where I said: "What I have a serious problem with is variations of the argument "the data is wrong" or "the drops are already here, you just cant see them" etc. We have some bloggers who take this sort of position with nothing to support it other than anecdotes and the like."
Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to offer Robert's testimony into evidence as exhibit A...”
Exhibit B:
How Hidden Incentives
Distort Home Prices
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB119803038237438417-lMyQjAxMDE3OTE4OTAxMzkwWj.html
Exhibit C:
MLS Data Fudged By Realtors. Watch out!
http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/01/mls-data-fudging-by-realtors-watch-out.html
Exhibit D:
http://varealestatetalk.com/2008/02/28/slight-of-hand-how-long-has-that-home-been-on-the-market/
Want to research it further anon? Just take a look at a full access (read only) version of the MLS. You’ll find instances of dropping the list price to the sold price (after the sale). Homes that get sold one month but are reported to MRIS on another. And many other sundry tactics. Come on, you’re not that naive are you?
Lance said...
“Realtor.com lags ... by a lot. Those 40 fewer properties have been sold!”
Lance you’re gonna have to dig a little deeper than your usual one dimensional argument. Sure they could have sold, but at some point, those inventories would have to be listed in MRIS. So far, it’s been ~4 months and no indication of those homes being counted as on the market at any time.
Exhibit E:
http://www.businessweek.com/
magazine/content/07_04/b4018055.htm
Robert - I will readily concede each and every point you made. There is no doubt that the realitors screw with what they can, but this has been going on from time immemorial. My point above (which you apparently did not get) was does this have anything to do with the big price discrepancies that are dictated by geography - no more no less.
For example, apart from incentives (which skew numbers everywhere regardless of geography), do you have ANY evidence that inner area realitors are manipulating the market to get enormous discrepancies in median price drops like this:
Alexandria
Apr 07 $448,950
Apr 08 $424,000 -5.56%
PWC
Apr 07 $360,000
Apr 08 $253,000 -29.72%
Again, I will readily concede there are hidden incentives so the "true" drops would be something like -6.56% and -29.72% respectively. However what I want to see is ANY evidence that the inner area realitors are shrouding the 20+ point difference and the true numbers are something like:
Alex -25.56%
PWC -29.72%
Anything in your goodie bag of links about this?
The Anonymous said...
“Robert - I will readily concede each and every point you made. There is no doubt that the realitors screw with what they can, but this has been going on from time immemorial. My point above (which you apparently did not get) was does this have anything to do with the big price discrepancies that are dictated by geography - no more no less.”….
And I said it was well within the realm of possibilities. What, these guys have no problem blatantly skewing the DOM and Av. List price as % of sale price, but have some sort of moral fortitude to go no further? Come on, at best we can deduce that if MRIS numbers are down, they are at least a few points further down than indicated due to manipulation.
“For example, apart from incentives (which skew numbers everywhere regardless of geography), do you have ANY evidence that inner area realitors are manipulating the market to get enormous discrepancies in median price drops like this:”
No, and I also do not have any evidence that the Earth is round either. However, I can speculate and come to logical conclusions based on personal observations and historical trends. I could go from listing to listing in the MLS zip of your choosing, but that would be quite time consuming and I usually reserve those efforts for specific properties that I have an interest in. I can however report my observations and, based on known conditions, issue caution. Even you come to the conclusion that “There is no doubt that the realtors screw with what they can” If you believe your own conclusion to be true, would you not further agree that it’s possible for a group of realtors to skew certain area specific numbers?
Robert - by saying you think there is any possibility they are skewing price data, you are really straining credibility. When I ask for evidence you say "No, and I also do not have any evidence that the Earth is round either." That is a complete red herring and you know it. There are any number of people saying they have evidence to prove the earth is round. To my knowledge, you are the only one even hinting that there is an inner DC group that is screwing with prices.
Want to know why I will concede they manipulate data, but will not take it to the next step to think there is the possibility they manipulate prices? For starters, it strains credibility to think there is a cartel of inner area realitors that would act in unison to obscure price drops. Many of these guys work inside and outside the beltway. Do you really believe there is any reason they would manipulate one set of price data and not the other?
Second, this is not the only city or the only source to notice this price differential. The Post noticed this, Wall Street Journal noticed this, NPR noticed this, even CASE FREAKING SHILLER noticed this. And its not just in DC either, its ALL OVER THE CONTRY. Here is the direct quote:
"David Stiff, chief economist for the company that produces the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, saw the trend in other cities, as well — including Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, San Diego, Miami and Boston."
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663
So to follow your line of possibility, you have to note that its not only this all powerful inside the beltway realitors who are doigng this. Apparently they have shadow networks operating in many big cities around the country all in a concerted effort to keep prices close in from showing the big drop that the outer areas are feeling.
If despite this, you want to maintain your position, fair enough. Just understand you are on an island here and to my knowledge, no one else has made this claim but you.
As to what to believe, on the one hand I have (a) many credible sources (thanks to you - but much of which I knew already) saying they manipulate some data (b) many credible outside sources noticing trends that suggest they do not manipulate price data by geography and (c) an entirely logical assumption that if they were acting in self interest, they would manipulate everywhere and not just one tiny area where few sales occurr.
On the other hand I have (d) you one unknown source of questionable reliability who thinks they could be manipulating prices by geography despite any evidence other than "personal observations" and some nebulous "historical trends".
Given everything I know, if it makes you fell better, I will say that its CONCEIVABLE that (a) (b) and (c) are wrong and you are right. I will also say its CONCEIVABLE that all the credible sources saying the earth is round are wrong too - after all nearly anything is conceivable.
However, when weighing all of the evidence, I think I will side with (a)(b) and (c) above, but cast (d) by the wayside. Sounds eminently reasonable doesnt it?
The Anonymous said...
. To my knowledge, you are the only one even hinting that there is an inner DC group that is screwing with prices.
No, at least two people agree that there is an inner group that this screwing with prices. Me, and one other person that said: “I will readily concede each and every point you made. There is no doubt that the realtors screw with what they can”
The Anonymous said...
“Want to know why I will concede they manipulate data, but will not take it to the next step to think there is the possibility they manipulate prices? For starters, it strains credibility to think there is a cartel of inner area realitors that would act in unison to obscure price drops.”
Ever heard of the NAR?
“Many of these guys work inside and outside the beltway. Do you really believe there is any reason they would manipulate one set of price data and not the other?”
It’s been argued many times (even by Lance) that the “in close” areas are the last vestiges against price drops. It would do well for those with a vested interest to prop these prices up more so than other areas.
The Anonymous said...
“Second, this is not the only city or the only source to notice this price differential. The Post noticed this, Wall Street Journal noticed this, NPR noticed this, even CASE FREAKING SHILLER noticed this. And its not just in DC either, its ALL OVER THE CONTRY.”
“The longer the commute, the steeper the drop in prices.” Something BH’s have been saying for quite some time.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663
The Anonymous said...
“If despite this, you want to maintain your position, fair enough. Just understand you are on an island here and to my knowledge, no one else has made this claim but you.”
The Anonymous said...
“Robert - I will readily concede each and every point you made. There is no doubt that the realitors screw with what they can.”
Seems that we’re only in disagreement about how far they will go. I say that they are an unregulated entity that manipulates and will continue to manipulate data in their favor for as long as and as much as is deemed necessary to hold on to their commissions. Well, that is until they are no longer the president of the NAR and call for 20% price cuts.
And back to the beginning. I said:
“Now, as far as inner vs. outer “conspiracy”, I dunno. Maybe a group of like mined realtors focused on the inner areas are collaborating. Possible? Yep,”
Defacto? No. Would it surprise me? No. Would it/should it surprise anyone who has been following the shenanigans of these so called “professionals”? Nope.
Wow a quadruple post - dont think Ive ever seen that before. Lets unpack that a bit shall we:
"It’s been argued many times (even by Lance) that the “in close” areas are the last vestiges against price drops. It would do well for those with a vested interest to prop these prices up more so than other areas."
I asked before but you didnt answer so lets try again (1) why "just" there and not on the outside the beltway areas too (2) how did they dupe the MSM and Case Shiller to fall for their story and (3) how and why did the all powerful NAR decide that the fruit of their conspiracy would just be the core (10% of their sales) in all these cities and not the outer areas (90% of their sales).
“The longer the commute, the steeper the drop in prices.” Something BH’s have been saying for quite some time.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663"
Correct, but you just regurgitated a story I sent to you. What are you suggesting here to bolster your theory about them manipulating prices? (all seriousness here what are you attempting to prove - I really dont understand).
"Seems that we’re only in disagreement about how far they will go. I say that they are an unregulated entity that manipulates and will continue to manipulate data in their favor for as long as and as much as is deemed necessary to hold on to their commissions."
Correct - the key distinction you and I make is whether or not any of what they do is dictated by geography. You say it could be, I say it makes no sense...Lets say they post a 15% exurban price drop and a 3% urban price drop. If you were to say "all areas are shaving 5% off price drops meaning that the 15% exurban price drop is really 20% and the 3% core area price drop is really 8%" Despite the fact that you have no evidence for this, I would say "could be" - I dont find it inconceivable to think they could be manipulating things for ALL OF THEIR MEMBERS.
Same situation except now you say "its not 15% exurban and 3% urban - its really 15% all across the board" Again, despite the fact you have no evidence for this I would say why "just" inside and not outside the beltway (2) how did they dupe the MSM and Case Shiller to fall for their story and (3) how and why did the all powerful NAR decide that the fruit of their conspiracy would just be the core (10% of their sales) in all these cities and not the outer areas (90% of their sales).
The Anonymous said...
“Correct, but you just regurgitated a story I sent to you. What are you suggesting here to bolster your theory about them manipulating prices? (all seriousness here what are you attempting to prove - I really dont understand).”
Apparently you were really not appreciative of my quad post. If you had been you’d have noticed that I outlined my theory succinctly in the last few lines of my last post.
The Anonymous said...
Same situation except now you say "its not 15% exurban and 3% urban - its really 15% all across the board" Again, despite the fact you have no evidence for this I would say why "just" inside and not outside the beltway (2) how did they dupe the MSM and Case Shiller to fall for their story and (3) how and why did the all powerful NAR decide that the fruit of their conspiracy would just be the core (10% of their sales) in all these cities and not the outer areas (90% of their sales).
Again, not my original argument, but I’ll take a stab save one.
1. Why "just" there and not on the outside the beltway areas too?
The last bastion of the bubble lies at the heart. For one, it’s easier. That was the “The longer the commute, the steeper the drop in prices.” reference mentioned previously. For two, when all else is crumbling, indeed bleeding, prop up the core at all cost. Does this not make financial/business sense? That 90% outer area is gone, lost to the bubble. No need to waste any more resources/$$ to attempt a feeble prop up.
2. How did they dupe the MSM?
Pick any interview from the MSM pre-bubble in which Peter Schiff appeared and it should be quite clear that they were duped. How? Multimillion dollar ad campaigns by the NAR. Millions of sheeple (realtor and homedebtors alike) not only drinking the cool-aid, but offering it to their friends too. The bubble “theory” was/is widely unpopular and it just made sense (as ratings go) to perpetuate the run up. Lost revenue from advertisements if they sided against advertisers (realtors).
3. how and why did the all powerful NAR decide that the fruit of their conspiracy would just be the core (10% of their sales) in all these cities and not the outer areas (90% of their sales).
Same as 1 above. But again, that 90% is lost. The only hope for rebuilding is to once again start at the core. Furthermore, as it is, MLS manipulation can be easily found by those willing to do just a little research. Any more (to prop up the outer areas) and any Joe at an open house would be able to spot it (I may be putting too much faith in the sheeple on that last one.)
Further, of I were to be making that argument, I would not start at “15% across the board”. I would start with the first you offered:
“Lets say they post a 15% exurban price drop and a 3% urban price drop. If you were to say "all areas are shaving 5% off price drops meaning that the 15% exurban price drop is really 20% and the 3% core area price drop is really 8%" Despite the fact that you have no evidence for this, I would say "could be" - I dont find it inconceivable to think they could be manipulating things for ALL OF THEIR MEMBERS.”
I think it conceivable to manipulate things for SOME of their members. Some are now cannon fodder to be lost to attrition/downturn. Especially those in the outer areas and especially those that are/were fly by night realtors. Those in the inner areas, better to be aligned with the juggernaut (NAR) than to remain loyal to your outer area colleagues.
Robert - as with all conspiracy theories you make a plausible (although highly highly doubtful) theory. For all your efforts though, you remain oddly silent as to any response on how the all powerful NAR got Case Shiller on board. (you know Case Shiller dont you, every bear's bible about true price drops given that they do their own research and same house sales and all).
Would you mind indulging me one more time - under your theory how did the NAR to get Case Shiller to support their little inner area conspiracy?
The Anonymous said...
“Robert - as with all conspiracy theories you make a plausible (although highly highly doubtful) theory. For all your efforts though, you remain oddly silent as to any response on how the all powerful NAR got Case Shiller on board. (you know Case Shiller dont you, every bear's bible about true price drops given that they do their own research and same house sales and all).
Would you mind indulging me one more time - under your theory how did the NAR to get Case Shiller to support their little inner area conspiracy?”
Anon, you make “conspiracy theories” sound so quasi-government/x-file/black-op, when in business parlance many times members “act in harmony toward a common end”.
Sure I know about Case-Shiller, its limitations, and as far as I know, have been arguing about the lengths NAR would very conceivably go to manipulate data. Not arguing the limitations of Case-Shiller or why it is inferior/superior to MRIS.
If you were in charge of MRIS reporting, and your data showed greater drops than Case-Shiller, would it not behoove you to manipulate your data to more closely mirror Case-Shiller?
How about a little exercise?
Pick any home in your area that has been built and sold in the last 28 months.
Using data that MRIS uses to generate its numbers, and only that data, tell me:
1. The original list price
2. The list price at the time of sale
3. Sale Price
4. Days on market.
Using data that Case-Shiller uses to generate its numbers, and only that data, tell me:
1. The sale price.
"If you were in charge of MRIS reporting, and your data showed greater drops than Case-Shiller, would it not behoove you to manipulate your data to more closely mirror Case-Shiller?"
You know - a few years back I had a disagreement with a 9/11 conspiracy theorist. Every time I raised a more likely answer, he would respond with a highly unlikely but still conceivable argument all pointing to - it was the jews!!!!
After 2 hours of trying to reason with him, I gave up realizing a conspiracy theorist has an answer for everything. I vowed then and there never to do that again - boy how quickly one forgets!
Robert - you win I lose. I am vanquished.
The Anonymous said...
“You know - a few years back I had a disagreement with a 9/11 conspiracy theorist. Every time I raised a more likely answer, he would respond with a highly unlikely but still conceivable argument all pointing to - it was the jews!!!!
After 2 hours of trying to reason with him, I gave up realizing a conspiracy theorist has an answer for everything. I vowed then and there never to do that again - boy how quickly one forgets!
Robert - you win I lose. I am vanquished.”
Wow anon. No, I didn’t really think you take the less than 5 minutes for the little exercise, even with the information right at your finger tips. But to even mention the events of 9/11 to my simple assertion that:
“I say that they are an unregulated entity that manipulates and will continue to manipulate data in their favor for as long as and as much as is deemed necessary to hold on to their commissions.”
Hummm. Words of advice to ya anon, and I really mean this. Never, and I mean NEVER, step foot on a car lot without some proxy, someone to help you fend off the salespeople and to look out for your best interest. You obviously do not grasp the lengths those who work on commission (that’s folks that get paid more the more you pay) will take.
"You obviously do not grasp the lengths those who work on commission (that’s folks that get paid more the more you pay) will take."
Clearly I dont - And to think, all those clients I had who paid me hundreds of dollars per hour to negotiate deals for them - many of which that involved commercial brokers who would fight with me because they had a years salary riding on a single deal being closed...how stupid were they to listen to me huh? Maybe there is a 3 week correspondence course I can take or something...Oh, Im so distraught.
The Anonymous said...
“Clearly I dont - And to think, all those clients I had who paid me hundreds of dollars per hour to negotiate deals for them - many of which that involved commercial brokers who would fight with me because they had a years salary riding on a single deal being closed...how stupid were they to listen to me huh? Maybe there is a 3 week correspondence course I can take or something...Oh, Im so distraught.”
Forgive me anon. I apologize. I did not know I was talking to a professional. Given your personal insight to these matters, please indulge and enlighten me with a few tidbits of information:
Pick any home in your area that has been built and sold in the last 28 months.
Using data that MRIS uses to generate its numbers, and only that data, tell me:
1. The original list price
2. The list price at the time of sale
3. Sale Price
4. Days on market.
Using data that Case-Shiller uses to generate its numbers, and only that data, tell me:
1. The sale price.
Given your prominent position, undoubtedly you can obtain information that a proletarian like me can not fathom, nor even strive to obtain. I appreciate your efforts in this matter and any information you can divulge will only enlighten my understanding of these complex issues.
Robert - Ya know - I was almost free of this debate until you made that parting shot about me needing a proxy for a car sale. I responded and you pulled me back in when I felt the need to defend myself. Good job.
Well I wont make that mistake again. My guess is you need to have the last word on this so go ahead and take another shot at me - this time im gone. C YA!
Post a Comment