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Monday, April 28, 2008
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53 comments:
So let's see where everyone stands on when DC Metro area housing will rebound.
What's the DC Metro Area?
Per wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Metropolitan_Area
What's a rebound? 2 Quarters of postive growth.
So pick the quarter and just give a brief statement as to why. I'll gather all the info from this post and put it on the web site.
Prices will be taken from National Assoc. of Realtors web site.
Dc Metro 2007 Quarter Recap:
I - 427.5 k
II - 455.3 k
III - 437.6 k
IV - 400.l k
My Prediction
4 Quarter 2009
Reason:
I believe the DC median housing price in this area will continue to fall rapidly for the next year. Probably to somewhere near 325 k maybe in 1st quarter of 09. The 2nd quarter 09 will stablize, and the 3rd and 4th will be very minor growth (maybe 1%).
3rd Quarter 2013.
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html
The ARM resets will be done at the end of 2011. Finally there will be a slowdown of dumping of homes on the markets at that point. Assuming 12 months of inventory, spring 2013 will be the first quarter where buyers dont have an extreme edge. Thus, we may have slight growth in the 1st and 2nd quarters, and by your definition we will be in recovery by the 3rd quarter.
Tricky, tricky.
Doug, I know the chart you're using. But there's a lull around the end of 2009, so I'm expecting a head fake about then.
So I'll say 4th quarter 2009 will be the second quarter up. We still have to shake out the people who are convinced the bubbledays will come again and housing is an investment, not a lifestyle choice. They will buy during this period.
Of course, then we begin the next wave down...
Joker in the deck is how all those option-adjustable loans reset. Will they reset because of the schedule (shown), or earlier because they suddenly hit 115-120% LTV?
2 quarters of positive growth of what exactly? sales volume, median price, optimism?
GT:
DC Metro Median housing price.
2 quarters of positive growth, or 2 consecutive quarters of positive year-over-year growth?
2 consecutive squarters of postive growth in the DC Metro Median housing price.
Example 2009
QI - 350 k
QII - 325 k
QIII - 331 k
QIV - 333 k ***Winner***
Not saying this is when the end to the housing crisis will be, but it's a start.
In the long term DC is in a much better position than most of the country.
"So let's see where everyone stands on when DC Metro area housing will rebound."
Shouldn't we wait for it first to go down? How can you speculate about when something is going to "rebound" while it's still rising? DC SFHs up 7% last year ...
Steve,
Great idea.
3rd quarter 2010.
Note: falls again in 4th quarter 2010 and 1st quarter 2011 (bear rally) for an almost flat 2011.
Note: This is median, not Case-Shiller. That will be a little later.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I think we'll see some stagnation starting towards the third or fourth quarter of 2008 which will last until Q2 or Q3 2009.
As far as a rebound goes, I'm thinking 4Q 2009 or 1Q 2010.
Sorry Lance,
DC METRO AREA, Not just DC only.
That includes counties surrounding DC approx 30 miles and what is reported by the National association of realtors.
Dc Metro 2007 Quarter Recap:
I - 427.5 k
II - 455.3 k
III - 437.6 k
IV - 400.l k
Down 2 quarters.
Buffet declares 'for the man on the street, we're in a recession.'
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/
080428/24350592.html
(I broke the url up to make sure it fits.)
Not what anyone wants. But this is sure happening fast.
Steve,
Interesting... great DC is now well under the old conforming limits. I wonder how much of that is due to the banks being unable to let people buy Jumbo anymore with purely 'other people's money.'
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Neil said:
"Steve,
Interesting... great DC is now well under the old conforming limits. I wonder how much of that is due to the banks being unable to let people buy Jumbo anymore with purely 'other people's money.'"
Great ... just what we need. First time home-owners being locked out of the market ... now that they are unable to obtain financing at any price. And let's be realistic, in this metro area "jumbos" don't just apply to "move-up" or "luxury" housing. They're a necessity for the "average person on the street" ... particularly the one without equity coming from past properties ... i.e., the first time buyer (or maybe even the 2nd or 3rd time buyer.)
I suspect many of the very BHs who've been on here cheering on "a collapse of prices" are the very people who will be hurt the worst. Of course, I realize you'll do fine since you have significant savings stashed away in the market and won't need one of these Jumbo loans. I wonder how many others on this board have a few hundred thousand dollars stashed away ... and can just avoid the whole question of getting a jumbo loan?
lance the fool said:
"I suspect many of the very BHs who've been on here cheering on 'a collapse of prices' are the very people who will be hurt the worst."
Twaddle. The absence of jumbo loans was one reason why California's median prices fell 29% y-o-y in March. And at that rate, soon enough, most people won't need jumbo loans.
Steve,
Predictions like the ones you have asked us to make can only be 'guesses' and have no real meaning except as a sampling of market sentiment or expectations.
That said, I think a mild rebound in the way you define could occur by Q3 of 2010, but it will most likely be a fake rally and the real estate market will likely continue to stagnate until
at least Q2 2013.
huh lance? the first time buyer now doesnt need a jumbo loan with the median under the (old) jumbo loan limit, assuming not much down payment, and assuming a first time buyer buys something under median which should be pretty standard if not smart
i will say q310 if by positive you mean keeping up with inflation
tedk,
Of course this poll has no real meaning, I'm not conducting a gallop poll here. I'm wanting to see where everyone stands. Since this poll is across the entire DC metro area and not particular counties, it should be interesting. Of course this is going to take years to figure out who was correct. Unless someone picks this year...
Lance, where is your prediction?
Is there a foreclosure site that can be utilized without paying? On some sites there is a forclosure showing up on my street, but they won't give the house number unless you give a credit card to sign up.
Misty Glen Lane, 22033
I am curious if it is one of the units being rented out as a boarding house.
Pat,
Check out the links on the top right-hand column of this blog's first page.
I typed in "Misty Glen" at the Washington Post's Trustee Sale site and came up with one result. The Long and Foster search may find it as well.
I'm finding myself using the Trustee Sales more and more to find out what's ahead for certain neighborhoods.
Lance,
They're not locked out.
They are now able to buy below the conforming limit. :) Affordable housing!
As to jumbo loans. 25% down was the historical norm. We're almost back to that. So no one who should have qualified for a Jumbo has been locked out. Not one person. We've only returned to historical norms. If you have the normal income and assets to qualify for a Jumbo loan by pre-bubble standards, you still qualify. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Update on our search:
We put in an offer on an REO in Loudoun at $50k less plus closing. The bank refused and countered only $8k less than their listing price. We walked away. The DOM on the home is 260+ days. It was auctioned at the courthouse about 4 months ago. According the the 'sales' price then, the bank was already eating $72k. Two days later they called my agent back and made us an offer at $29k less than their listing price plus closing. We took it. This price puts the home at $220k less than it sold for in 8/2006.
So, a week later, we are still working with the bank and the addendums. So far we are up to 25 pages of addendums from the bank basically clearing them of everything, which is funny and kinda redundant. In reading all the legal jumbo, it often says the same thing a few times. I'm having a lawyer review it, I assume it's standard stuff, but, didn't want to loose my first born to them, ha.
So, seems the REO deals are there to be had, but, you have to play their game. We are waiting on their senior management to sign off. Of note, I think I helped the deal by offering to use their mortgage products as well, which I planned.
can somebody explain this listing :
this unit was supposedly in foreclosure and is listed for $879k while county website has no foreclosure record and last sale for $660k? was the owner an idiot who couldn't sell for profit instead of foreclosing or the listing agent is plain crazy? or is there a hel/heloc hidden somewhere?
-Property flipper-
I reported this last week as sold at 219k on foreclosure. lowest advertised price before was around 260k?
http://realestate.alexandriava.gov/detail.php?accountno=50707170
4/9/2008
back on market today:
http://virginia.briorealty.com/va-real-estate/search/frameset/property.do?id=315615
AX6725528
$316k
Oh yeah.. it not a short sale anymore and is listed as such..
"NOT A SHORT SALE! Location, convenience, and value -- 3 minutes to I-395, dining, shopping & just a few minutes to Old Town, Crystal City, Pentagon. Preferred 2 master suite floor plan for privacy. Wood floors. Galley Kit. w/ Granite. Closeted W/D. 2 Garage Spaces! Great prof.-grade gym. If you work a lot, this is your kind of place. Deck with peaceful courtyard. Very cool condo devlpmnt!"
Pat,
I know it is a pain, but you can always go to the local courthouse and look at county records. It's free--you just need to use their computers. First, use the county assessor's website to get the name of the owner of the property, the tax ID number, and such, and then you use that information to look up all the further info you need/desire.
Househunt update:
We have been negotiating on a foreclosure, and just gave our "final and best" offer this afternoon. If it works out, I'll let you all know how it goes...
bas, strange how that works.
Price it low and the flippers sneak in.
4550 STRUTFIELD LN, 22311
wanna buy said:
"They are now able to buy below the conforming limit."
Yep, you're correct ... I'd forgotten that the conforming limit was raised. I'm glad to hear that. Getting into that first house (or even 2nd or 3rd) can be tough.
M,
Very Cool! Thank you for sharing.
Pat,
Is there a foreclosure site that can be utilized without paying?
Check out REOTrans.com. It's very easy to use. I have no idea of its complete accuracy, but it looks all right for the areas I'm looking at.
Also, at Franklymls one can type in a keyword search: "Bank" or "Foreclosure" along with MLS codes like "FX". If they're common like "CU", use the next digit that appears which in Culpeper's case is a 6. Search string: CU6 Bank.
(Of course you come up with bank barns when you're looking at rural property. :-)
Here's a strange one:
42840 Golf View Dr., South Riding, VA 20152
Sales History:
5/12/2000 $170,500
2/03/2004 $306,000 KHAN, ASHRAF & MOHAMMAD KHAN
11/29/2007 $460,000 BELL, RASONNE
Listing history
1/08/08 $438,500
3/05/08 $419,500
3/29/08 $364,900
4/24/08 $329,900
A $130k, or 30% decline since it was bought 6 months ago??? Also, who the hell puts their house on the market 40 days after closing?
Is this blatant mortgage fraud? The owner, Rasonne Bell, was convicted in 1993 for selling crack cocaine and sentenced to 151 months (~12 years).
http://www.franklymls.com/LO6627568
"According to the Prince William school system, enrollment in the English for speakers of other languages, or ESOL, program dropped by 759 between September and March 31. It was the first known instance of a decline in ESOL students, said Irene Cromer, a schools spokeswoman.
During that period, 623 ESOL students from Prince William enrolled in Fairfax schools, compared with 241 in the same period the previous year. Eighty-three enrolled in Arlington, and 75 signed up in Alexandria, the latter up from 10.
Twenty-three ESOL students from Prince William enrolled in Loudoun County, officials there said.
...
Still, Stewart noted that Prince William's schools expect to save $6 million in education costs as a result of the exodus -- a cost that will be borne by the other communities. Some officials in Fairfax and elsewhere say they expect the numbers to climb in the next academic year."
Wow... I am really surprised that PWC's crackdown has been this effective this quickly.
http://tinyurl.com/3pp78c
novawatcher,
I've seen this sort of thing over and over again, especially in Loudoun, where a property's selling a few months later for vastly under what it was paid for a few months ago, and it's not a foreclosure or short sale.
Maybe some people have a lot of money and move a lot?
Worst Cities For Homeowner Debt
It's no secret that homeowners with subprime mortgages have taken a beating.
Next up: those who have combined their mortgages with home equity loans, second loans or both.
These combinations spell especially bad news for homeowners in Sacramento, Calif., San Diego, Washington, D.C., and Colorado Springs, Colo., markets with some of the nation's highest concentrations of homeowner debt. In these spots, prices are dropping, making it very difficult for homeowners to refinance as lenders are reluctant to take on risk.
Denver, Minneapolis, Los Angeles, Boise, Idaho, Las Vegas, and Madison, Wis. round out the top 10.
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/
Whats that? Debt in DC?
I am SHOCKED to hear that.
Obviously these people must not live anywhere the cool people would want to live.
In fact, let me just jump ahead of the discussion here real quick and point out that nobody in KH's neighborhood has any debt. Everything there is going great, better every year in fact. KH's investments are in no danger.
The same thing is true in Lance's neighborhood, with the exception of lance.
These combinations spell especially bad news for homeowners in Sacramento, Calif., San Diego, Washington, D.C., and Colorado Springs, Colo., markets with some of the nation's highest concentrations of homeowner debt.
Obviously you're not looking at the proper statistics. It wouldn't be cool to be near anyone with above a reasonable amount of debt; all that debt must be in Prince William county and its just skewing the medias perception.
As Leroy already noted: KH, The anonymous, and Lance all live in debt free neighborhoods. All the news you read about elsewhere doesn't effect them. ;)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
leroy,
I read that article, about ESL student enrollment. I was also surprised to see such a dramatic drop, so quickly. I was also surprised Sunday, when I read that PWC foreclosures jumped from 306 in February 2008 (on pace to double the rate from 2007) to 1,497 in March 2008 (an increase of 427% from 2007, way more than double). Things are suddenly happening very, well, badly.
georgesalt,
I was researching a foreclosure at the county courthouse, and found the records fascinating...people really pulled enormous amounts of money out of their houses, sometimes simultaneously, from many different banks. How did the banks sign off on this, I wonder?
"Obviously you're not looking at the proper statistics. It wouldn't be cool to be near anyone with above a reasonable amount of debt; all that debt must be in Prince William county and its just skewing the medias perception.
As Leroy already noted: KH, The anonymous, and Lance all live in debt free neighborhoods. All the news you read about elsewhere doesn't effect them. ;)"
Neil - you of all people are in no position to lecture about “skewing” and “looking at the proper statistics”. Thus far I have held back from publicly ripping you here as I have elsewhere. Do you really want me to embarrass you on this blog as much as I have on that other blog (you know which one I am talking about).
You will notice that as much as I sometimes agree with Lance, I am just as likely to rip into him for being an idiot as I did this morning on the other thread – this is what is called being objective and not letting your biases and hopes taint the reality of what is happening on the ground.
For example I read that Forbes report and I learned something – it gave me renewed hope that prices close in may still fall. You were recently provided with a report about the accuracy of Case Shiller – tell me what have you learned from that?
The Anonymous,
FWIW, I appreciate your objective view. I too am bearish but I'm not so certain that close in prices will fall drastically.
I thought it was a low blow by Neil to take a shot at you like that.
My $0.02
Anon said:
"Thus far I have held back from publicly ripping you here as I have elsewhere. Do you really want me to embarrass you on this blog as much as I have on that other blog (you know which one I am talking about)."
You are really only embarrassing yourself. NORMAL people don't make threats like yours. Neil and I may disagree on things, but we don't exhibit the abnormal, anti-social behavior you have exhibited here. The very fact you are using an "anon" and not owning up to your words speaks volumes about the kind of person we are dealing with here. I for one will completely ignore your posts going forward.
The threatening tone may have been childish but he was completely right on you ducking the question and trying to run away lance.
You put your foot in your mouth in a big way and then as usual couldn't bring yourself to just admit your mistake and back down. Instead you just made up some statistics and tried to spin your way out of your earlier statement by claiming that people obviously just shouldn't have bought anywhere where prices are now falling. (Which is exactly what I predicted you would say.)
Leroy said:
"Instead you just made up some statistics and tried to spin your way out of your earlier statement by claiming that people obviously just shouldn't have bought anywhere where prices are now falling."
No I didn't. Again you are putting words in my mouth. People can buy anywhere they want. If they wanted to buy in PWC in 2005 that had to have been doing it with the full knowledge that the boom was ending, and that with PWC being on the edge of that boom, that the prices there would have to fall. Even the simplest research into what happens in boom times would have revealed that. For some people that wouldn't matter. Actually, for most people that wouldn't matter. If they were buying to really live there and not to speculate, then it wouldn't matter that prices could go down by some 15% for the next year or two or even three. Again, anyone knowing the slightest bit about home ownership knows that you shouldn't even be looking to buy if you aren't prepared to stay in that house a minimum of 5 years. And if you have to worry about having to move after 2 years because you think you will be losing your job after 2 years, then you shouldn't be buying in the first place.
But this isn't the question for this anon anyways. From his later posts it's pretty obvious that he doesn't even know where PWC is ... He is one of Neil's buddies from Neil's own Orange County (CA) blog. This anon is just looking to justify his fear of committing to buying. Hence why it is now convenient him for him to hang his rationalizations on "the inner areas NOT falling". His interests are neither those of the BHs or of the HHs. He'll go through life justifying not committing to anything. Because there is always the "what if ... "
What do you guys think of this:
Buyer posts a bad home inspection onto my WIKI MLS and warns buyers. Good bad? Discuss? http://tinyurl.com/5jsum8
Frank
$0.02 I appreciate the support as I have alot of respect for a majority of the posters on this blog. It is only the fringes that really get me going.
For the record, Neil and I have a very sorted history on other blogs. I have tried to keep it civil here, but once he starts going after me on this blog, I have no problem going after him "in kind".
Lance - I am amazed at how upset you have become just because I called you out over an inaccurate statement of yours. With one brief fracas, you have now decided (a) I am one of Neil's buddies, (b) I have no idea where PWC is, (c) I cannot take responsibility for anything and (d) I cannot commit to anything in life! Really???
As I said before, we are all human, we all make mistakes - we state positions that are not well thought out and may need to be refined from time to time. You just happened to stake one position that was not well thought out, and when I called you out on it, you go straight to personal attacks? Sad.
If you say something that is incorrect, admit it, restate your position and move on. All will be forgiven. Come to Jesus Lance - come to Jesus.
"You'll do okay under any conditions if you've taken the necessary steps ... That's the message KH and I have been trying to get across. I.e., It's not by "hoping the market will hand it to you for cheaper".
...
Losing propositions easily reveal themselves, winning ones don't. You have to work for those."- Lance, yesterday
This is your original quote lance... the one you are running away from.
You have gone from "You'll do okay under any conditions if you've taken the necessary steps" to...
"People can buy anywhere they want. If they wanted to buy in PWC in 2005 that had to have been doing it with the full knowledge that the boom was ending, and that with PWC being on the edge of that boom, that the prices there would have to fall."-Lance, today.
Like "The Anonymous" said, why don't you just admit that you misspoke and move on? Getting all bent out of shape, attacking other posters, and generally trying to run away from your own misstatement doesn't help you one bit.
...and, making up statistics doesn't help you one bit either. This is a blog full of people that follow the housing market. They know the 90% number you posted is a lie, so why bother posting it?
Frank: It looks like the days of no-home-inspection are over.
Lance - let me show you how this could have gone:
Lance - do your homework and you will be fine.
Anon - I dont think so Lance, what about this hypothetical?
Lance - I guess there is an exception in exemplary cases like PWC.
Anon - I see where you are coming from now, and think your larger point is probably correct - Cheers!
INSTEAD, this is how it really went down:
Lance - do your homework and you will be fine.
Anon - I dont think so Lance, what about this hypothetical?
Lance - It wont matter long term.
Anon - OK fine, but what about my hypothetical?
Lance - your Neils buddy, you dont even know where PWC is, you cant commit to anything, you are afraid to make decisions in life.
Interesting turn there at the end eh? Lance, I think that overall you and I have alot of common ground, but I have no problem calling someone out for a misstatement (I would expect the same to be done to me - I certanly make alot of them). I learned along time ago that when you are in a hole, it is best to stop digging - sometimes you will be amazed how accomodating others can be. Give it a try some time.
Lance has been digging holes so long I'm surprised he doesn't own property in China.
My $0.02
Frank,
Regarding the home inspection on the wiki, I think its great! Thanks
Hey NoVAwatcher,
Actually there is a new trend. And that is for the banks to underprice and create a bidding war.
We had one buyer do a home inspection BEFORE putting in the offer, so that they could put the offer in with no inspection.
Frank
Frank, re: home inspection, I'm not a lawyer but would worry about: what if the comments are false or at least questionable, and the homeowner comes after you for discouraging sales or for defaming him/her personally?
Some possibilities:
1) put a disclaimer on your site that you cannot be held accountable for facts alleged, opinions expressed, anything else in postings, etc.
2) on the site, clearly state a rule to posters that they must take great care to be truthful, they are responsible for comments, etc. Maybe put this in automatically when they post and they have to check a box indicating they have read it;
3) tell posters not to post inspection or appraisal results (because I think there may be some ownership issues), but if the poster has info s/he believes serious buyers & their agents need to know about, say only that and invite them to contact him/her.
Anon/Leroy,
I don't consider being 'down' 15% in what one paid for their house 3 years earlier not being okay. This may happen several times during the period one owns their home. Buying a home is a longterm proposition, including many intangibles. Perhaps you don't. I guess that is where we will need to agree to disagree.
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