3546 19TH ST S
ARLINGTON, VA VA 22204
List Price: $304,900
Prior Sale: $570,000 1/31/2007
Listing Date: 04/07/08
-46.5%
2137 POLLARD ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $224,900
Prior Sale: $395,000 3/15/2006
Listing Date: 04/03/08
-43.1%
4140 21ST RD N
ARLINGTON, VA VA 22207
List Price: $499,900
Prior Sale: $810,000 8/22/2006
Listing Date: 04/14/08
-38.3%
2451 MONROE ST
ARLINGTON, VA VA 22206
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $453,500 4/20/2006
Listing Date: 04/17/08
-36.1%
5033 7TH RD S #201
ARLINGTON, VA VA 22204
List Price: $190,000
Prior Sale: $290,000 10/12/2006
Listing Date: 04/07/08
-34.5%
2133 POLLARD ST S
ARLINGTON, VA VA 22204
List Price: $258,000
Prior Sale: $390,000 9/19/2006
Listing Date: 04/10/08
-33.8%
5114 12TH ST S
ARLINGTON, VA VA 22204
List Price: $388,850
Prior Sale: $570,000 2/28/2006
Listing Date: 04/10/08
-31.8%
See Arlington County 4/21/2008 for more comparisons from this month's listings.
(Links by FranklyMLS.com)
Monday, April 21, 2008
Arlington County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 1:17 AM
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42 comments:
Again, with a very few exceptions, these are all in south arlington, and the ones in north arlington are almost all condos. 4140 21st st. screams fraud, look at the sales history.
There has been a large crime upswing in S. Arlington since the illegals were driven from PWC.
I hope that does not spread to N. Arlington.
Doug, please cite your source. It has been shown from census data that immigrants without any doubt are much less likely to commit crimes than natives.
I have a friend who is a US Marshall who works on MS-13 gang activity. We speak several times a week.
imagine trying to price a McMansion in 22204. at least the barns in North Arlington at this point are surrounded by plenty of other barns. in 22204 you're surrounded by 3/1 all-bricks.
w/o low and middle support, can the top (north Arlington) continue to hold up?
5114 12th St. S. says "This is not a short sale. Owner is Freddie Mac" yet when I went to the Arlington real estate assessments page, the owner is listed as Efrain & Albina Claros, et. al., and this information is current as of 4/12/2008 which is less than 10 days old (the time this listing has been on the market.)
I'm not even botherin to look at short sales when comparing prices since they never sell for that amount.
I don't see any sales history on 4140 21st st n
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1642198
Doug, I don't necessarily doubt your reasoning but the daily crime reports don't bear that out. In any event the Arlington police are careful to keep almost all violent crime out of North Arlington, lest the educated and influential population there take too close a look at the County's social services and crime policies, which are, shall we say, liberal.
Look at the Arl Co. assessment site.
fd,
I got my information from the Arlington County assessment site for 5114 12th St. S.
http://tinyurl.com/4ufgr4
fd - in what way does 4140 21st scream fraud to you? is it because the current owner and the previous owner both have names of origin unfamiliar to you?
and if it was mortgage fraud, why did the current owner make payments for a year and half before defaulting? most mortgage fraud involves a sham sale in which the buyer defaults almost immediately.
I note that on the full list, the number of houses selling for a loss in Arlington is roughly equal to the number of houses showing a gain.
The same cant be said of Fairfax - the entry from a few days earlier shows over 10 houses selling at a loss for every one selling at a gain.
John Fontain, the increase in sales prices from March of 05 makes no sense and is not supported by the market in that neighborhood or Arlington in general. And your last sentence is hilarious given that I am of ME origin myself.
fd said... "John Fontain, the increase in sales prices from March of 05 makes no sense"
Couldn't that be said for prices in general during that time?
And again, if it was mortgage fraud, why did the sham buyer pay the mortgage for a year and a half?
The anonymous,
The Arlington entries that show a gain are mostly from 2004 and prior. And there are eight times as many houses on the market in Fairfax County than in Arlington, so there will be more underwater mortgages in general there because of the volume.
Also, my lists don't compare *everything* on the market, but only as many listings as I have time to do. Each list takes quite a lot of time as it is. I try to focus on properties that were sold in the last five years.
"And there are eight times as many houses on the market in Fairfax County than in Arlington, so there will be more underwater mortgages in general there because of the volume."
Harriet - what I am saying is that if you look at the number of houses you put on each list, you will note that the number of "up" to "down" houses in Arlington is about 1:1. In Fairfax the ratio of up to down houses is something like 10:1.
Are you choosing different criteria when selecting housing in different counties? You said you look for houses sold in the last 5 years, but I assume you use that same criteria for each county. If so, I am assuming there is no inherent bias in your listings county by county.
My larger point is that throughout this crisis, the outer counties on your list have been showing the largest percentage of houses being down, and by the largest percentage loss. Both inner and outer counties show more and greater losses as time goes by, but the discrepancy seems to remain. For example, I note that the "Top Discounts" list is almost exclusively PWC properties, with an occasional Lodon Co. sprinkled in. The last listing "falls church" is the first time I can remember seeing a top discount coming from anywyere other than PWC and LoCo.
Obviously, Harriet is having difficulty finding more same-house declines in Arlington (especially North Arlington), or she would list them...
The Anon,
Yes, price drops are more significant in outer areas. I can't quantify it, though, with more specific statistics (like 1:1 or 10:1). It would be nice to take every property on the market in each location and do that, but my hindquarters couldn't handle all the sitting if I tried.
fd,
Obviously. But I never try to find something that isn't there, so there's no difficulty on my end.
I agree, I think you provide a valuable service despite some of the ridiculous posters here (on both sides, to be sure).
Thank you, Harriet, for this site and your hard work.
I also have to thank Harriet for her hard work on this site. So, thank you! I very much appreciate her efforts.
As for price declines in South Arlington vs North Arlington, I don't believe there's a mystery to be solved. North Arlington is a very desirable and will be one of the last places to see price declines. But they will decline. Maybe not as fast and far as PWC, but does anyone really wonder why?
I'm looking forward to the day when Fairfax County is affordable again.
what do people think is going on in the columbia pike area?
is it still sinking?
I think with a trillion in Option-arms still sinking
it's going to be ugly still
All I can say about declining prices any where in the NOVA area is that I hope that as I near closing in 8 days on a Reston condo is that rents rise compared to my mortgage and expenses in the years ahead.
I am buying for the long term here. Hoping to be like my parents - try to pay off the place early and have a debt free home for retirement.
I actually just talked a friend out of buying a place on Columbia Pike two weeks ago. In addition to the fact that prices in general are likely to decline further over the next year or so, the county had been planning to put in a light rail system (trolley) in that area, and I believe that expection has pushed up some prices even higher; my expectation is that declining tax revenues will slow or scuttle that project, which will of course take some of the wind out of the sales there. I think there's been a lot of speculation going on the Pike.
gruntled, and if the light rail does go through and in the next 5 to 10 years prices double, or even more from the depressed rates - how will you answer your friend for missing the "wave"?
Gruntled, you must have missed it.
Arlington county is taxing shopping centers and small businesses 12.5% to pay for that trolley.
Its going through, even if it drives prices into the stratosphere.
I agree with the others, gruntled, the Trolly is Zimmie's baby and it will definately get through, they should start construction in a couple of years.
fd said "the increase in sales prices from March of 05 makes no sense and is not supported by the market in that neighborhood or Arlington in general."
The whole bubble wasn't supported by the fundamentals that drive property values, yet everything seemed to double in a few years.
While this isn't necessarily fraud, I heard something disturbing recently: 54% of alt-a loans and subprimes were cash-outs. People were either doing a refi and liquidating their house, or essentially being bribed to buy them.
That is why houses like that crackshack at 4140 sold for so much.
I think we will have to agree to disagree on trolley construction. They've been talking about a trolley on Columbia for close to two decades, and each time they're close to breaking ground, a recession hits and the money gets diverted elsewhere. Given the expected severity of the economic downturn, I'd be shocked if Arlington didn't reallocate trolley funding to prop up critical services for the next five years.
"and in the next 5 to 10 years prices double, or even more from the depressed rates"
Leaving aside the laughable notion of prices doubling or tripling within the next 5 years, on what valuation basis do you support your claim that current prices are "depressed?"
Chip said...
"gruntled, and if the light rail does go through and in the next 5 to 10 years prices double, or even more from the depressed rates - how will you answer your friend for missing the "wave"?"
Chip, your average Bubblehead will never understand/accept what you're saying here. By nature they are not only static thinkers but pessimists. You show them a glass filled to the half way point and they will tell you it is half empty. Same with the current very depressed prices. You show them what an opportunity they have before them and they will answer "but prices will go down forever ... why buy?"
chip ! = lance?
That was a great post lance.
Bash the majority of particpants on this blog, make up your usual strawman arguments and of course generally contribute nothing.
Obviously the correct answer here is as always, buy at any price.
Gruntled, I don't think the trolly is needed either, I'm just saying that the Board owes Zimmerman and this is his cashing in. With all the new commercial development continuing on the Orange Line (have you seen the new Founders' Square proposal? Wow!) there should be enough money to squeak it in. Certainly it is a better bet then that ridiculous acquatics center...
Well, as someone who has lived in S. Arlington for a while, all the immigrants getting kicked out of PWC probably lived in Arlington until a few years ago anyway. (In fact, until housing prices went through the roof here.)
So it may not be that obvious to assume that crime will soar in S. Arlington, unless crime went down here by a similar margin from 2001-2007.
I called a friend in the Arl. Co. PD on this. He said there have been some families moving back from PWC but that has been offset by a steady exodus of Latinos caused by foreclosures and no construction jobs , as well as the INS raids at work sites throughout NoVa. On MS-13, he didn't see any change. Note that, as Kevin said, Arlington has gotten less Latino over the past few years, especially South Arlington (North Arlington did not have nearly as many Latinos to start with).
You show them what an opportunity they have before them and they will answer "but prices will go down forever ... why buy?"
Not forever. Just until 2012. And then I'll buy.
Justin said:
"Not forever. Just until 2012. And then I'll buy."
LOL ...
Does anyone else on here think that prices on desireable properties (i.e., those you want to buy) will continue to drop for the next 5 years? Remember, in many areas prices have yet to drop either at all or at least by any amount approaching the trade offs lost in renting vs. buying.
lance:
I'll bite.
Yes, I expect prices on the houses I am inclined to buy to decline (or continue declining, if already started) for the next few years. I'm not sure if 5 is right, but neither am I sure 3 is right nor 10 wrong.
As for my 'losses' by renting now and not buying, I don't itemize, since I don't make enough to warrant such efforts to lower my taxes. Therefore the biggest supposed gain for buying over renting for me is moot. But there are others. For what I pay in rent right now, I could afford to buy approximately a $200,000 house. But that's ignoring property tax and insurance. So let's knock that down to $180K.
So, if I could find a comprable house for about that much, I could be gaining equity, and certainly that's better than renting, if I intend to stay here long term, which isn't a guarantee, but we'll assume it is for your argument.
There is one place for sale in my neighborhood, $147,000. Likely the condidtion is not as good as the one I'm renting. Others are in the $180,000 to $250,000 range. Other still are higher, but I will ignore those as well, because certainly no one is looking at them.
So, yes, I could buy and get equity in my neighborhood. So why do I think prices in this area will continue to come down?
1) Because the properties showing the lowest prices (the ones where this equation makes sense) are all in bad shape. Foreclosures, short sales, etc.
2) Because despite the fact that I don't make enough to deal with itemizing, I do make more than most people in non-government jobs. And there are a lot of those around here, particularly where I live.
3) Because no one has enough money saved up for a down payment required to get the rates I'm using for these equations. Certainly I don't. My wife's student loans ate the down payment.
4) Because with prices already coming down so hard, it turns into the same spiral we saw going up. Only in reverse. No one will want to buy a house. It's a sure way to lose money; and it is. Shown time and again, historically speaking houses, after accounting for maintenance and inflation barely break even. And with no buyers, and people who have to sell, there is a market imbalance, just as there is now. It's just not going away any time soon.
The real estate market cycle is something like 14 years. Even you've admitted that we're into the downward side of this cycle. So if the downward side has just begun, why should I have any belief other than that prices will continue to go down for the next few years?
"Does anyone else on here think that prices on desireable properties (i.e., those you want to buy) will continue to drop for the next 5 years?"
Yes, because with every wave of loan resets we will get more foreclosures.
In 2011 the 2006 5-year ARMs will be dumping a fresh wave of nice homes on the market.
So 2012 at the least, and then 3-4 years of stagnating sales and level values.
FD and Kevin are right about Latino immigrants (many illegal aliens) in Arlington: they are rapidly moving out and have been for the past few years. Even much of south Arlington is becoming unaffordable for them and the ICE raids are bearing fruit.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663
Link above is to today's NPR story on how close-in neighborhoods are escaping declines in real estate values -- precisely what I've been saying about much of N. Arlington. Article even includes a picture in Clarendon!
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