Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, off-topic ideas, and links here.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Northern Virginia Real Estate Statistics
REAL ESTATE SEARCH
County Assessment Websites
Buy/Sell Without an Agent
Local Real Estate Agents
Housing Economics Blogs
Local Interest
Housing Bubble Links
Eastern Regional Blogs
Western Regional Blogs
- Bakersfield Bubble
- Bay Area Real Estate Blog
- BubbleInfo (N. San Diego)
- Burbed (San Francisco)
- Dr. Housing Bubble (SoCal)
- Patrick.net (San Francisco)
- Portland Housing Blog
- Professor Piggington's Econo-Almanac
- Rancid Truth (Orange County)
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- Seattle Bubble
- SoCal Real Estate Bubble Blog
- Socket Site (San Francisco)
Real Estate Blogs
REAL ESTATE AUCTIONS
23 comments:
Radian Guaranty: List of Declining Markets
http://www.radian.biz/pdf/Radian%20Declining%20MSAs.pdf
I am looking for a building lot or house in Warrenton, VA-only very particular areas though. Either in Old Town Warrenton or on 17 North corridor (Bellevue Farms/Blantyre Road/Merry Oaks Road) area. If anyone knows of someone interested in selling, please let me know.
Bay400@gmail.com
WAPO, 3/30/2008, page R1, article named "Opening Doors for First Timers" by Elizibeth Razzi and I quote, "But there's still a big hurdle for first time buyers to overcome: Its tough to find something affordable that isn't in greater need of rehab than Amy Winehouse. For example, a quick search for condos or houses priced at $350,000 or less in Fairfax county showed only six properties. Six!"
I checked, how did she miss the other 260 properties under 350,000.
I mean I expect lieing on this blog, but geez I paid for the paper.
260! Elizibeth. 260!
Yeah, there is obviously something wrong with that article. There are numerous properties beneath 350k in Fairfax county at this point including quite a SFHs.
I assume that must have been some kind of typo in the article. That or she really is the most out of touch realtor on earth.
Even if you lower the price to 150k you still find way way more than 6 inside Fairfax county. (counting condos)
Oh yeah, and the whole idea that a "starter home" should cost $350k is stupid as well. Only the top fifth or so of the households in the region could afford a $350k house...
leroy--the median family income in 2006 in Fairfax county was over $110k. More people than you think can afford a $350k home with interest rates as low as they are.
I checked, how did she miss the other 260 properties under 350,000.
I sent Ms. Razzi and the WaPo Ombudsman a complaint about that bit of fantasy, along with a link from the McEnearney site for all current listings under 350k in Fairfax Co. I get a total of 2542. http://www.mcenearney.com/search/advanced-results.php?search=Submit&page=1&subloc=adv&state=&county%5B%5D=FAIRFAX&zip=&city=&address=&subdivision=&for_sale=0&for_rent=0&for_sale=1&active=0&active=1&min_price=&max_price=350000&min_beds=&min_baths=&garage=&stories=&school_type=&school=&type_listing%5B%5D=res&age=&type%5B%5D=&mls_id%5B%5D=&mls_id%5B%5D=&mls_id%5B%5D=&results_per_page=20&order_by=price_low_high
The more I think about it, the more it seems like she may have cut and pasted that line from their 2006 edition...
-Jason
"the median family income in 2006 in Fairfax county was over $110k. More people than you think can afford a $350k home with interest rates as low as they are."
Ah, I was using numbers for Arlington County.
Still, using Fairfax's numbers that means that the median family can only afford a "starter" home. Assuming a "starter home" is $350k anyways.
Leroy said:
"Still, using Fairfax's numbers that means that the median family can only afford a "starter" home. Assuming a "starter home" is $350k anyways."
Based on what? Minimun down payment? I'd expect the "median family" to be doing a "move up" and bringing equity (and/or other savings) to the table.
"Based on what? Minimun down payment? I'd expect the "median family" to be doing a "move up" and bringing equity (and/or other savings) to the table."
"First time buyers..." is what the article said according to John above. So there should be no question of whether or not we are talking about a "move up."
Besides, there is no realistic question whether housing prices are out of line with incomes in this area.
it aint 6, it aint 260 and it aint 2542, somewhere in between. 350 is right where i am looking and i probably get 20 listings a week emailed to me from the couple areas in ffx co.
leroy said: "Besides, there is no realistic question whether housing prices are out of line with incomes in this area."
Touche. To me the bigger issue is (but clearly similar) is rental price versus price to own. In any zip I have checked (all over expensive areas of Arlington, where my fam lives) I can find good rental substitutes that are much cheaper than owning. Simply put, there is housing market arbitrage right now, and it is in the direction of renting.
bubbleboy,
I should agree with you. I hear a lot of a comments at work that renting is simply throwing away money...this is a buyers market. Why can't you wait till the prices stabilize and what you pay for rent makes more sense than what you pay for your own house.
BUBBLEBOY said:
"Touche. To me the bigger issue is (but clearly similar) is rental price versus price to own. In any zip I have checked (all over expensive areas of Arlington, where my fam lives) I can find good rental substitutes that are much cheaper than owning. Simply put, there is housing market arbitrage right now, and it is in the direction of renting."
Two bad assumptions in what you had to say:
#1. There are no guarantees that everyone be entitled to buy that 4 bedroom house with a 2 car garage ... or even that 1 bedroom condo with a balcony. As this city moves toward being an international city, it becomes less and less likely that someone with a median income can afford to buy here what that median income used to buy. E.g., How many people with a median income do you know that actually own anything in NYC? Most people there are renters. (No, were're not there yet ... but moving closer to it every day.)
#2. Renting only gets you something for a fixed (and short) period of time. You have to look at what you would pay to rent the same place over something like 30 years to acurately compare to the cost of owning. Over time rents go up. What you paid for a place doesn't. When you move out after many years, you have nothing to show for it when you've rented. You have your purchase price paid back and more when you've bought. I.e., Don't be fooled by the shortterm satisfaction of renting. Over the longrun it's always far cheaper to buy than to rent. If that weren't so, how do you think a landlord would make his/her money?
Lance--My folks owned homes forever, and I owned a couple from 2001 through 2007. I know all about the points you are making. My point is that I am not pumping my nest egg into an "asset" that has ALREADY experienced its biggest chunk of appreciation in 25 year and is currently overvalued relative to its closest substitute.
And regarding your first point, I know several people in NYC with incomes WELL below median that owned: My sibling, my cousin, and my Aunt. Two are in Brooklyn Heights and one had a coop in MSG that was flipped.
ajay--you should not necessarily agree with me. My opinion was formed by my family's own experience. And we decided to treat a home as purely a financial transaction. All things considered if it is much less to rent, then we rent. In our preferred zip, it is currently cheaper to rent and there is a ton of shoddy new construction at insane prices that needs to fall.
Renting is certainly not throwing away money. It allows you flexibility and it let's you generate savings that can be invested in any number of ways (one of which can be future housing!). That, in my opinion, is a good thing right now.
That said, there are a TON of homes on the market now and rates are still very low. If you place a personal premium on owning and are willing to accept some risk, then now is a actually a good time to buy. Evidence I have found is that in good zips (Oakton, Mantua, Westover, N Arlington, etc) if there are 3/4 BR homes in good shape priced at about 2003/2004 prices then those appear to be moving well.
"As this city moves toward being an international city, it becomes less and less likely that someone with a median income can afford to buy here what that median income used to buy. E.g., How many people with a median income do you know that actually own anything in NYC? Most people there are renters. (No, were're not there yet ... but moving closer to it every day.)"
More baloney...
DC is not Manhattan.
DC is not on the verge of becoming Manhattan.
It is just a non-sense comparison.
Even if it WERE, and it isn't, that still wouldn't mean that housing is a good bet right now. NYC has experienced more than its fair share of housing bubbles...
For that matter... how is DC becoming an "international city" if it isn't already? Are you honestly trying to say that DC is becoming an appreciably more "international city" than it already is? (or was before the bubble?)
Buzzwords are not a suitable substitute for a well reasoned argument.
"the median family income in 2006 in Fairfax county was over $110k. More people than you think can afford a $350k home with interest rates as low as they are."
but these families making 110k are stuck in ARM's on 560k home with decreasing value.
Leroy said:
"For that matter... how is DC becoming an "international city" if it isn't already? Are you honestly trying to say that DC is becoming an appreciably more "international city" than it already is? (or was before the bubble?)
Buzzwords are not a suitable substitute for a well reasoned argument."
www.wdcep.com
Over the past few years, Washington, DC has emerged as the strongest and most resilient economy in the country. From office and residential markets to the hospitality/tourism industry and educational institutions. Washington has a development dynamic best illustrated by $15.2 billion worth of projects completed since 2001 and the $7.5 billion currently under construction.
With new development occurring in each of the District's core economies – office, retail, residential, education, hospitality/tourism and media/communications – investors are discovering the opportunities that DC has to offer. Washington, DC is ranked as the #2 national and #4 international investment market among foreign investors (AFIRE) and the #9 retail investment market by Marcus & Millichap. Residential investors are also discovering the appeal of the District's neighborhoods as thousands of new housing units are under construction.
Washington, DC, a city created as the symbol of democracy, has become an economic engine that anchors an entire region and beyond. An urban renaissance is transforming the nation's capital into a world-class city with an unparalleled business environment.
www.wdcep.com
lol
On a scale from 1-10, how unbiased a source would you say this is?
=================================
Mission Statement
A 501(c)(3) organization, the Washington, DC Economic Partnership promotes business opportunities throughout the District and contributes to business retention and attraction activities.
What We Do
The Washington, DC Economic Partnership is your first point of contact for development and business opportunities in the District of Columbia. We facilitate economic development through business attraction and business retention programs and activities.
Our Core Values
The Washington, DC Economic Partnership constantly strives to:
* Enhance the District's economy through jobs creation for DC residents, increasing tax revenues, retaining existing businesses and attracting new businesses.
* Serve as an information clearinghouse and research center for prospects, businesses, District agencies, and community stakeholders.
* Tell the story of the District's economic resurgence and development dynamic in local, regional, national and international markets.
* Brand the District as a premier business environment and residential opportunity.
Yes, even hard facts must be discounted by Leroy when they don't fit his agenda.
"Washington has a development dynamic best illustrated by $15.2 billion worth of projects completed since 2001 and the $7.5 billion currently under construction."
"Washington, DC is ranked as the #2 national and #4 international investment market among foreign investors (AFIRE) and the #9 retail investment market by Marcus & Millichap."
"Yes, even hard facts must be discounted by Leroy when they don't fit his agenda."
Hard facts? The post I was responding to was nothing more than a PR fluff piece authored by an organization that exists to promote DC's image...
Even by your standards that is pretty weak.
"McDonalds hamburgers are wonderful and delicious!" - McDonalds corporation chief food taster.
""Washington has a development dynamic best illustrated by $15.2 billion worth of projects completed since 2001 and the $7.5 billion currently under construction.""
Uh huh? And that proves DC is becoming a more "international city" how? How many dollars worth of projects were completed in NYC?
""Washington, DC is ranked as the #2 national and #4 international investment market among foreign investors (AFIRE) and the #9 retail investment market by Marcus & Millichap.""
Heh, have you even looked at the source of this statement? It was an opinion poll conducted by yet another little interest group based in DC...
With members from 17 nations! Naturally they speak for international investors everywhere.
Seriously lance, you are grasping at straws here. Even IF there were some credible arguement that DC were becoming an "international city" as you put it that still wouldn't mean the bubble won't burst.
Funny, 'cause I have friends that still think of DC as the murder capital of the United States.
LOL @ McDonald's hamburgers!
I bet the executives at the company wouldent dare eat one of their own wretched products.
Post a Comment