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Friday, March 21, 2008
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24 comments:
This house is a reminder to me of the "irrational exuberance" of the real estate market. It overlooks a 7-Eleven and a fairly busy four-lane road. In fact, you can look right in the house as you pass by. I have to think that people's first instinct was to reject the house because of location, but exuberance sold it in the end. The builder once had a sign out front saying, "Starting in the low $1.1 million" which I always thought was comical. The houses basically have no lawn and all house. This one sold for something well over $900K+ in 2006. Was initially listed at $995K and is now down to $599K. The house is about a 1/4 mile walk from the Franconia-Springfield metro.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1219711
Sorry, link got truncated.
http://tinyurl.com/yvrdmh
Wow. I am guessing they will be lucky to sell that these days. %20 down is going to be $120k. It will have a Metro bump...but Wow.
Well, at least the $/sqft is down around $100/sqft! That's a good sign if prices in that area are headed there.
One question: since it's a standalone house, couldn't they have put more windows on the right side, in that one picture?
Oh, and I'm sure glad the photos included a picture of the two street name signs on the pole on the corner. I couldn't have figured that out from the map/directions info, and it really helps the curb appeal! :)
Scott said...
One question: since it's a standalone house, couldn't they have put more windows on the right side, in that one picture?
The right side you are referring to actually looks out onto the 4-lane road. The left side looks right into your neighbor's house. The pictures are deceiving. I don't think the realtor even cares that much because the for sale sign was blown down about a month ago and never put back up.
FAIRFAX TAX ASSESSMENT "MISTAKE"
While you were sleeping...there was a rumbling over your tax assesments. You probably saw the overall assessment and weren't worried however check it again....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/28/AR2008022803875.html?hpid=topnews
After BOS cried foul
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/29/AR2008022903978_2.html?hpid=topnews
outcome
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=722&sid=1369314
Good evening all,
The attached link the the WSJ housing blog indicates that housing vacancies have reached 2.8%, equal to an all time high. The Census Bureau has kept this data since the 1960's.
http://tinyurl.com/27hs2n
The related map refects that vacancies in the DC area are between 2-4%., which is not the sign of a healthy market but not nearly as bad as FL and CA.
My observation of the spring market in Alexandria City is that low end stuff in turn key condition is still moving, while competition is increasing for sellers of more expensive homes. Pricing relative to comparible inventory is important.
Interesting article:
Bernanke's Own Home on Capitol Hill Shows Housing Boom and Bust
By Brendan Murray
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing recession has arrived literally on the doorstep of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
Bernanke lives in Washington's Capitol Hill area in a four- bedroom, 2,600-square-foot house he bought new in May 2004 for $839,000. Almost four years later, it may not be worth any more, according to real estate records and local agents.
Bernanke's timing wasn't the best -- values in the area peaked a year later -- and he is hardly alone among Americans living in an investment that's turned cold. His situation shows that the slump that began with distress in the subprime market is now engulfing wealthier neighborhoods, including some in the nation's capital.
``Even though he's the Fed chairman, he's going to get hit -- but I think lot of people will in Washington,'' said William Wheaton, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The value of Bernanke's home ``probably went up to $1.1 million and it's probably back down to $840,000,'' because prices in Washington just a couple years ago ``got out of control,'' Wheaton said.
Bernanke, 54, started working in Washington in 2002, when he joined the Fed's board of governors under then-Chairman Alan Greenspan. His home purchase two years later may have occurred just before prices peaked on the Hill.
In an area of mostly brick row houses, some dating from the 19th century, Bernanke bought a new townhouse within Capitol Hill's historic district.
As Bernanke surveys the breadth of the housing slump, he won't have to venture far from home.
Sales Prices Fall
Real estate records show Bernanke's next-door neighbor's house sold in July 2007 for $880,000, 4.9 percent more than Bernanke's purchase three years earlier. A home four doors down and comparable in size and condition to Bernanke's has been on the market for five weeks at $899,000, after a failed attempt to sell for $988,000 in 2006.
That still leaves the homes of Bernanke and his neighbors worth about four times more than the median home price in the District of Columbia, as measured by S&P/Case-Shiller.
The District had been among the hottest real estate markets in the country, with its steady turnover of residents, proximity to government employers and fewer newly constructed homes than in the suburbs of Virginia and Maryland.
Home values in the U.S. capital were up 96 percent in the five-year period to the third quarter of 2007, the second- fastest pace in the country after Hawaii's 100 percent appreciation, according to figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
`The Hill Stumbled'
Now, the nation's capital is no longer insulated from the downturn. The median home price on Capitol Hill last year fell to $545,000, from $550,000 a year earlier.
``Nearly all the Hill stumbled last fall,'' said Joel Nelson, an agent on Capitol Hill with Keller Williams Capital Property. ``There were people who feared in 2005 that things on the Hill would just collapse like they did elsewhere in the country, but I think it's better described as reaching a plateau.''
Still, values in exclusive Washington neighborhoods such as Georgetown and Cleveland Park have held up better than in other parts of the District or elsewhere in the country.
The average sales price in the Washington area dropped to $217,780 in December, a decline of 13 percent from a record of $251,070 in May 2006, S&P/Case-Shiller data show. Washington's home prices had gained an average of 15.9 percent a year in the 10-year period ending in 2005, according to Case-Shiller figures.
No More `Froth'
Nationally, prices fell in every month in the second half of 2007, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index. The average price of a house in the U.S. was $170,640 in December, down 10 percent from a record high of $189,940 in June 2006.
``The froth's come off from the standpoint that we've got a lot fewer buyers than we did last year,'' said Don Denton, branch vice president of Coldwell Banker on Capitol Hill. ``Prices have leveled off and we may have lost 3, 4 or 5 percent -- not bad considering the incredible run-up that we have had over the past decade.''
The health of real estate on Bernanke's block will get tested as the peak sales season gets under way next month. About 90 homes were for sale on the Hill at the start of this year, 50 percent more than the beginning of 2007, according to Coldwell Banker's figures.
It's a supply-demand equation that Bernanke himself is all too familiar with. ``The current crisis has many roots,'' Bernanke said in a March 14 speech in Washington. ``The drop in home prices in many once-hot markets is among the most significant.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_SQurUfHic0&refer=home#
Fox on DC auction with link to video.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/financial-planning/real-estate-mortgage/article/results-pay-homes_525401_29.html
Starbucks,
I couldn't figure out how to link directly to the video but it's called "Bargain Homes" dated March 21, 2008, on the Fox Video page.
It said that places went for 15% off to about 40% but most seemed to sell for 20% off previous "valuation", whatever that is.
For your viewing pleasure, I bring you 6019 Pocol Dr. in Clifton:
http://www.franklymls.com/FX6604376.html#
http://slideshow.mris.com/slideshow.cfm?ListingKey=10435239041
Truly, it is a grand masterpiece of tackiness. From the faux-castle front to the Home Depot vinyl siding back, this place has it all.
- Windows in the back seemingly placed at random, with no care for aesthetics or symmetry
- Landscaping consisting of tiny saplings from the discount bin at the KMart garden center.
- low density of landscaping has allowed dirt to spray up during rain showers, staining the bottom 2 feet of the foundation.
- Mismatching materials on the front of the house. 'Brick' turrets connected to a 'stone' center, that's held up by 'wooden' columns. I put the names of the materials in quotes because they are just a vinyl fascade.
- The back doesn't match the front. Is this the same house? Did they run out of fancy materials after covering the front, and were forced to settle for beige vinyl siding for the remaining 3 sides of the house?
- Mixing and matching of architectural styles allows us to take the worst of each to create something that Tony Montana would be proud of. Federal, Gothic, Greek Revival, this place has it all.
- MIrrored bedroom doors. Need I say more?
- After you move into your wonderful new home, why not invite the neighbors over for some tea? Heck, whlle they're over, why not show them around? I bet that your neighbors two doors down with the 912 sqft 3br house will be particularly impressed!
Bravo to the reporter who did the story about Bernanke's house. What a clever angle. A little froth will do you.
On a separate note, I wouldn't be surprised if Capitol Hill pricing is especially vulnerable. There's a lot of crime up there. An $800,000 price range will get you into lot of other DC neighborhoods that are easier to deal with.
"Truly, it is a grand masterpiece of tackiness."
Wow!!!! I expected to see Bob Guccione lounging around.
I'm shocked, shocked that nobody has posted this story from today's Wash. Post:
http://tinyurl.com/2kat99
KH and I have posted in the past about E. Reed St. near Potomac Yard, where the so-called "victim" purchased the home that is the subject of the article. The street is full of eyesores.
What the article is missing is information about the seller of the home, who I suspect was in cahoots with the realtor and/or broker. I share that suspicion with regard to the home that the "victim's" niece purchased in Springfield.
Here's Tanta's take on the article (a must read):
http://tinyurl.com/2jghj6
Terminator, see Harriet's post for today (3/22/08); she includes a link to that story and there are a few comments.
Novawatcher, Love your critique! Keep 'em comin', for those of us who look at houses like that and say "yuk", but don't know enough about why they provoke that reaction.
OK, my bad. Harriet has posted the article.
Here's an idea: why not have a depository or weekly thread for architectural casualties of the housing bubble?
Novawatcher, good idea. Meanwhile, what do you think of this one, aside from the fact that it is on a very busy street, the lister has mis-stated the subdivision (it's actually Kirkwood Terrace; Lyon Village is a higher-priced area of Arlington with its western edge across the very wide street from this house), backs up to a school, has a kitchen someone didn't think very clearly about when designing it, it's overpriced, and out of sync with the small, older houses around it?
http://tinyurl.com/2eznbb
http://tinyurl.com/2eznbb
Not my favorite, but from that picture it's not too bad. It's a little garag-y, but the architecture seems somewhat consistent in front.
Here are some better shots:
http://slideshow.mris.com/slideshow.cfm?ListingKey=10438237659
AT first glance, I like the kitchen, but there are a couple of odd things of note. Maybe it's just me, but the built-in ovens look awfully low. Also, the chimney from the hood looks like it should run into the ceiling, but maybe it looks Ok in person. Also, I wonder if the right side of the island might interrupt the workflow triangle from the sink to the fridge. If it was up to me, I'd move the oven and fridge over to the left (towards the range) and put the doors where the fridge is, but they might be constrained by the pre-existing architecture. Finally, the kitchen has a beautiful view of the side of the neighbors' house (but i guess if you are going to sacrifice a view, it might as well be the kitchen.).
Moving to the living Room, well, that fireplace sucks and could be a pain to work around, but with some careful planning, it might be no big deal. I like the wall of windows.
OK, looking at Kitchen picture #2: now that I can see the island, it's obvious that someone screwed the pooch when designing that kitchen. Too bad, because it had the makings of a nice kitchen. Actually, I hate kitchens that open into a great room: too damn noisy. When I'm watching the TV, the last thing I want to hear is someone making dinner, the disposal, or the dishwasher. I also hate great rooms with lofted ceiling that open into the bedrooms upstairs. I like my houses compartmentalized, to an extent.
Looking at the back (or is it the side?), well I actually like that view. And I dig that big old tree. The view out the kitchen window made it seem as if the neighbors were 5 feet away, but I don't see any houses -- maybe the kitchen is on the other side.
Of course, I've been fooled by realtors' photos before, and this is no exception. The bird's eye views on ZIllow tell it all: yes, the neighbor's house on the other side is about 10 feet away, and this house dwarfs the neighboring houses. It also seems like it is 10 feet from a busy street. Hell, the 'Backyard' shot is actually a shot of the neighbor-on-the-left's front yard! Phhbbtt!! What seemed like a pretty nice house with a quirk or two, seems more like a bait-and-switch. I'd like to change my initial rating from an A-/B+ to a D.
Thanks, Novawatcher. I go by this house frequently during commutes, and yes, it is very close to the street, though the one advantage is that this allows for a larger back yard. So as long as you don't mind hearing cars zipping past you from any of the front rooms on any of the levels, you're fine. And the "back yard" view IS mislabeled; it's the south neighbor's front yard and this house's side yard.
Can't imagine what the builder was thinking. Only a family (or a bunch of people renting rooms, which I don't think is permitted in this zone) would need 5 bedrooms and 5 baths, but a family wouldn't want to be right on top of this busy street, would they? And, if the kids are small or there are pets who might slip out, there are safety issues. Most singles and retired couples without kids at home would have trouble with the price and wouldn't need all the space (or might not like all the steps). I guess the builder was hoping for a childfree 35-year-old two-income couple with elderly parents who live with them, or a big extended family that frequently comes into town for holidays or vacations. Not a huge chunk of the market.
I agree with your comments about the kitchen. (Unlike you, though, I like open kitchens, because it makes it easier to talk to guests or family when cooking). However, I agree with you about the island's blocking the triangle flow, and there should have been a sink in the island to improve this and to enable the cook to talk to guests more easily. Also, I don't like white cabinets and dark counters (at least not in a house in the > $1MM price range), though that's a matter of taste rather than functionality. I don't like refrigerators placed next to the oven(s); one is to cool and one is to heat; it's not energy efficient to put them right next to one another.
It's not clear to me where the dining room space is (what is up with only 6 or 7 photos instead of 20 for a house of this size? what does the upstairs look like (aside from what appears to be a nice owner's bath?). Could typical dining room furniture (e.g., a breakfront holding your china, a sideboard for serving, as well as an extended table and chairs) be easily placed there? And if you want to watch a big screen TV in the family room (across from the kitchen) where would it go, with all those windows and sliding doors? I think most people would want some wall space to mount a high def flat screen in a house like this. Looks as if you would have to put heavy curtains over one set of windows and place a stand in front of them, with a TV. Hard to imagine this looking nice. Yes, I know one could put a TV in the basement, but I think a lot of people would want to have one in the family room on the main level.
Another thing I don't get is why Arlington greatly upped the assessment on this house for 2008. It lowered the assessed value on the surrounding houses--so why did this one increase? It's been on the market unsold before then was taken off, and it's not moving now. There are no apparent upgrades in the past year--I think the owner rented it when it didn't sell. And the house isn't "brand new" anymore--it was built 2 years ago.
PS - is there a 2nd floor laundry (most people buying new houses expect them, but there's no mention of one in the ad). I start adding up the $$$ for what one would want to change, and recognize what can't be changed no matter the $$$, and I think this one's going to keep sitting.
ace: I didn't even think of the hot/cold thing.
Interesting that you brought up the window/TV issue. One of my pet peaves that family rooms that don't have a good place to put a TV -- either the TV would block the windows or a fireplace is in the ideal location for a TV. One choice is to put the TV in the corner, but you might have to put the furniture at a 45 degree angle to the room to prevent neck strain. A more recent option is to put a flatscreen above the fireplace, which is great if you want to watch the TV on the ceiling...
I've seen similar problems in some bedrooms. The wife and I looked at a house last fall that had a large master bedroom. But, once you put the headboard against the wall, there was no for anything else other than a nightstand or two. The wall to the right of the bed was nearly all windows, so a dresser wouldn't work there. The wall across from the foot of the bed was entirely sliding doors (4 panels? 6?) to a *very* wide, yet shallow closet. So, 3 of the two walls are unusable. The right side was the only place to put a dresser, and even that was limited because part of that wall was taken up by the door to the bathroom and the "swing zone" (whatever it's called) for the door entering the bedroom. I think you could get two tall dressers along that wall, or one long and wide one. That might seem extravagant to some, but given the sheer square footage of the master bedroom, you would have expected a lot more room for, um, stuff.
Now that I've described it from memory, I found an url for the house right here. The left wall wasn't as bad as I remember, but you can see that there isn't a lot of wall space for dressers. There is, however, enough floor space to open up your own gymnasium:
http://tinyurl.com/336neu
now, the real stinker, and the thing that really pissed off my wife and I, is the bait-and-switch photographs. If you look at the house in the photo, it looks like it has a *huge* front yard. Bullshit. It's about 20 feet from the neighbor's house, but they used a fish-eyed lens to warp the image and make it appear much, much, larger:
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=51762801
Also, shouldn't a 20+ year-old house have trees that are 20+ years old? The landscaping makes it look like it was built last summer.
Novawatcher,
I completely agree with you about those bait-and-switch photo tricks. I've seen them with other houses as well, and they don't fool anyone, do they? On the one you linked, the interior photos are so distorted, you really can't get a sense of the house; I feel as if I'm on drugs looking at them! I just don't know what the agents are thinking when they use those.
The landscaping question is also mystifying. I guess original plantings could have died from neglect or disease. It's not that hard to keep trees and basic shrubs alive, though. Makes you wonder if the house was rented and neglected for a long time.
I wonder if we could make a living as consultants to architects? :-)
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