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Monday, March 17, 2008
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23 comments:
Looks like its going to be the "St. Patrick's Day Massacre" on Wall Street today.
Get ready to move your retirement age back a couple years, lol.
I'm not sure. I've been marvelling at how, over the last year, there is no data that can cause the market to view any decline as anything other than a buying opportunity. Of course, we haven't had to deal with a situation where cash has actually disappeared yet in this cycle so...
Of course, we haven't had to deal with a situation where cash has actually disappeared yet in this cycle so...
And the Fed is inventing new ticks.
But when is the last time a government actually ran a market well? Sorry, but Uncle Joe really isn't a good example...
We need to start pursuing a stronger dollar strategy or we'll get into a real problem. If too many countries, due to dollar inflation, drop the dollar peg... We'll have to boost rates.
That will really get the housing market heading down...
As to today, it could go any way. We're in a long term bear market as risk is priced back in. I still cannot believe the old risk pricing rules were thrown out the window...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I'm watching this with a peculiar sense of deja vu. The market *should* have plunged and yet did not and at this point is even positive.
I'm reminded of the stories about stock (market) pumping that occurred just before the dot bombs finally went down the drain.
My brother and his wife both work for the WSJ, I'm curious as to what they are hearing. Anything interesting (and public :-)) I'll post back.
look out below! lock in some cd rates today!
i'll be tabitha-like and ask is this a good deal?
http://www.homesdatabase.com/FX6693020
asking 290, previously sold for 460 in '05. 408 zestimate (i know zillow is way off in this area but i use it as an indicator, if a listing is asking 100k less than a zestimate that it is a decent value)
for a 3 bed townhome inside the beltway in a decent hood, this actually seems reasonable (pending inside and condition)
Not about the economy:
I saw this new listing today and thought of Lance:
10484 GENNA LN
MANASSAS, VA 20112
Price: $575,000
sale history:
Feb 16, 2000 $255,000
Feb 09, 2001 $305,000
Nov 04, 2005 $575,000
listing description begins with:
"IF YOUR BUYERS CAN AFFORD THIS HOME, THEY WILL LOVE IT."
Six other homes for sale in this little neighborhood wedged behind a strip mall: $419K, $419K, $329K, $339K, $345K, $405K, all bank-owned or short sales. Streets full of countless contractor cars from remaining residents. Is this the pricing phenomenon that if you price it high, people will think it is worth the high price, even if there is no rational reason?
Forgot one detail...
Its current assessed value is $427,000.
Tabitha ... it's in Manassas ... anyone could have told you 3 years ago that IF the boom stopped, these homes would have gone down in price. Buyers who were trying to "get more for their money" took a chance. It could have paid off if the boom had continued a few more years. It didn't.
Your post is about risking housing decisions not paying off. This isn't what the Bubble Theory is about. It's about ALL housing going south OVER THE LONGTERM and not being a good choice over renting until AFTER it's ALL gone south. Well, it still hasn't all gone south ... and certainly not over the long run. And it won't. I don't know if that's what you believe (and I suspect you don't believe that since you are looking now) but that is what many bubble heads believe. Just listen to Leroy or Neil to see what I mean. God, I Neil's been saying (prior to just recent posts) that he's going to wait till 2012 before considering buying anything anywhere. I say that's foolish. Buy carefully and smartly and you can buy anytime. Look at my house for instance, I bought in early 2005 and now it's valued at about 50% more than what I paid (according to Zillow.com and the tax assessor's office.)
Lance said:
"Believe what you want, but look around you. You'll find that prices in desireable areas anywhere within the beltway (and somewhat beyond) have gone UP since 2005 ...and not down."
I call huge BS on this one. While I don't think the sky is falling in certain Orange Line neighborhoods, there has beem softening in the market. Look at the listings for places in good buildings like Virginia Sq. and Lexington Sq. 2BR/2BA condos aren't more than $650K anymore. You can get a 3BR in the Monroe @ Va. Sq. for less than $500K. Hell, I bought a 2BR in Rosslyn for less than $320K when a similar unit sold for $370K in 2005.
Condo page was very busy in this week's Sunday WaPo.
Bill ... you haven't been reading my posts carefully. I specifically said I was talking about houses ... not condos. I've always said condos seesaw lots more than houses ... and that when the boom ended, they'd drop some no matter where they were located. Even in the District where prices are still climbing, some condos have dropped. That always happens in the down side of the real estate cycle. What's amazing that is most houses (in regular established areas) haven't. I think that goes to show that this area is experiencing real growth in value as well as populating.
I say BS on houses too. A lot of garbage went for $800K in 2005 that wouldn't fetch that much today. Arlington dropped my assessment $90K in 2007 for my residence in Ashton Heights. Trust me, the People's Republic would have never dropped it unless they HAD to based on price drops in the market.
Any increases since 2005 can be explained by new construction or renovations. A good example are 512 and 514 N. Monroe Street. A $900K lot became two $1.4 million homes sold in August 2007.
GT: It's not a bad deal -- certainly much better than it was a few years ago -- but it doesn't have a garage. I wouldn't pay more than $240k for it.
http://tinyurl.com/23nmxl
Type in the address and click on "valuess"
4505 SAUCON VALLEY CT, ALEXANDRIA VA
thanks nova watcher, you click on neighborhood sales and the lowest sale lately is 386..no it doesnt have a garage, but i doubt a garage TH will come down to 240
Check out this listing.
http://www.homedatabase.com/janethomesales/PW6673460
10 arces??? (There is a driving range behind the house, but it's not next to the house, neighbors like 50 feet away on both sides.)
BS, I was just there this weekend, it's like .5 arce. How can they advertise it like that.
steve--
I had noticed that listing myself, but I have never been past it. According to the county assessor's website, it is 10 1/2 acres, but it seems to be a really wierd lot. Taken over by Washington Mutual Bank for $667,000 on 11/27/2007. I don't understand it myself...
gt: just type in the street name and you'll get a history of sales on that street.
Here's what they sold for in various years:
1999: $178,000
2001: $203,000
2004: $409,000 (slightly larger)
2005: $460,000
So, yes, I think mid-200s is reasonable, and $290k is on the high side.
Question: How much do they rent for?
Steve and Tabitha: Did you notice in the listing that the "THE FULL BATH IS STILL IN TACKED"?
If you read the listing in context, it readily apparent that she means "intact".
Cripes, they're paying 6% to an illiterate. And, no, it's not the first listing I've seen with horrible spelling or grammatical errors.
P.S. If you are tired of looking at Janet in homesdatabase.com, you can replace "janethomesales" in the url with "frankly" (who, by the way, is not remotely illiterate).
NoVAwatcher:
Trust me, we could create a whole separate blog devoted exclusively to poorly spelled/written listings. I always wonder--don't they need to run the listing by a supervisor or something? And the poor folks they represent--don't they notice? Can't you edit for those things even after posting the listing? Goodness gracious.
I use listings as schoolwork for my kids: can you find all the things wrong with this listing?
Looks like the listing got chopped off
http://www.homedatabase.com/janethomesales/PW6673460
There has to be a mistake with the PW assessment. There is no way that house is even 1 arce unless they are counting the driving range/abandon farm house.
I wouldn't pay more than 200 k for it from what I saw.
Tabitha, I feel the same way about all the misspellings, grammatical errors, etc., in some homesdatabase.com listings! If the Realtor can't take the time and care to make sure such an important marketing tool is presented in the most professional manner, how could they possibly be representing their clients in the best possible way?
Steve & Novatwatcher,
A nice feature about homes database is that you can always just use the mls number after the "homesdatabase.com/" part.
http://www.homedatabase.com/PW6673460
or
http://www.franklymls.com/PW6673460.html (has bigger pictures).
The "instant equity" note on the listing is a bit appalling. This house looks overpriced, if the basement was gutted due to water damage. One would have to find out what happened. If it's a structural issue, watch out.
I also personally dislike those big windows over the door. It implies a two-story foyer. I've never seen one of those where there aren't unreachable dead bugs on the upper windowsill -- just what I don't want to greet me every morning as I go downstairs. Also, I've always thought two-story gigantic windows were a nightmare. They're fine in a sunroom, but in other parts of the house you get baked in the summertime.
Harriet, I am so glad to see I am not the only one who despises two-story anything--foyers, family rooms, etc. The house we are renting has a two-story family room with an upstairs hallway catwalk overlooking it, and the house is just an echo chamber...and we are heating/cooling all that dead space, space which could have been a second story family room area or another bedroom or SOMETHING. And you are so right about those windowsills--yuck!!
I know I have big-family needs, but I want every space in my house to be functional. Why did this two-story room craze take off, I wonder?
My last larger home in Atlanta had the two-story foyer with a large palladium window. I had a master on the main there, but my office was upstairs. Everytime I came down the front staircase, I saw the dust. Gag. Cleaning the over-sized lighting fixture was a bear also.
No, it just wasn't practical. I did get one of the telescoping dusters which basically "fluffed" the dust to the first floor ot be vacuumed.
Since I doubt that at this stage in life I will ever purchase a large home again, maybe it won't be a problem. The next purchase won't be until I move to NC so who knows.
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