The 2008 real estate selling season has arrived!
Northern Virginia has a higher starting point on available housing inventory this year than in the past two. If buyers don't step up to the plate, the pricing pressure will continue.
Source: Virginia MLS
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Spring Market Kickoff
Posted by Harriet at 10:36 PM
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"If buyers don't step up to the plate, the pricing pressure will continue."
I don't think it will matter much even if Buyers do *step up to the plate*, Harriett.
There's SO MUCH more on the plate than usual this year.
Not to mention the additional difficulty in getting Loans now & all the other issues that make Real Estate a bad investment at this point & time!
3 months from now the situation will be much worse. More on the market, slower sales. Just a prediction.
The credit squeeze has just begun. HELOC's are being turned off, Refi's have been out for 9 months, credit cards are next.
Spunky,
I can't think of a logical reason for housing inventory to decrease or for prices to stop falling this year. The government "stimulus" package of a few hundreds per family isn't enough to matter, and the fed rate cuts aren't affecting mortgage rates. Yes, there will be buyers, but many won't qualify under tightened lending standards (at the current asking prices).
On the other side is "jingle mail" adding to the inventory, and those who lost their houses won't qualify to buy another. The Option ARMs, in my opinion, are never going to be refinanced, and those are due to reset in 2010.
The exurban market is strange. There are about 170 single family houses in Prince William County selling for well under $200K, yet only one in Warrenton. The rest of the 251 single family houses on the market there are well over $200K.
I disagree that the rate cuts have not lowered rates. Rates have dropped a lot, quickly. You can even get sub 5% 15-year mortgages.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/
I do agree, however, that many won't qualify for refis or purchase mortgages at those rates. With the new Jumbo cap, I may refi my own house and get out of jumbo interest rates. After all, it is the biggest no brainer in the history of earth.
My question is, how quickly will prices drop? I saw one house's asking price go down $200K in one drop last August:
9339 SUMNER LAKE BLVD,MANASSAS,VA 20110
Listing Price change
Old Listing Price -> 620,000 New Listing Price -> 420,000
It never sold.
This one just dropped $100K this weekend:
10101 HOLLAND CT,MANASSAS,VA 20110
Listing Price change
Old Listing Price -> 399,900 New Listing Price -> 299,900
This one had been on the market for a long time in the upper $400Ks before it became a foreclosure.
Harriet, you are right--there are many detached houses in PWC/Manassas under $200K now, when there were none this time last year. But they are still not selling...and sometimes, I think people are keeping their prices high just for the mental game of "this really is an expensive house--really"!
In terms of determining a good, safe price, is it really a case-by-case basis now? Do the regular rules of real estate not apply under these extraordinary circumstances? Will the houses that sell leapfrog into prices that are expected next year? Does this explain the high number of extremely low priced (under $200K) houses, while there are still so many similar houses priced so much higher?
The credit squeeze has just begun. HELOC's are being turned off, Refi's have been out for 9 months, credit cards are next.
CR has an ariticle up on how non-residential credit is tightening up fast.
How often on ziprealty is DC updated? I've noticed its slow. Often only at about 6pm. While on the west coast, which often is nearly 'real time' on ziprealty, the inventory is spiking up.
Note: Normally around the superbowl inventory drops and picks up a week or so later.
There will be no leap frog up in prices, it will instead be down. After a drop, prices traditionally stay down for a while. The NAR is trying to make it seem like people overnight decide to jump back in. In the past its taken 18 to 30 months.
Got popcorn,
Neil
The Presidential Capital at The Fontaine at President's Park a winchester home
These are in the heart of Herndon. I stopped in this weekend. Two weeks ago they had about 8 sold. Now they have 1 sold. They have 3 townhouses completed. Ones the model, one is sold and the 3rd the buyer backed out after ordering a high end unit. It originally listed for $600,000 and was on sale this weekend for $500,000 with $15,000 tward closing.
It is a nice unit, 2,500 sq ft, fabulous layout, awesome kitchen, hardwood floors, 2 car garage, jetted hottub. The other 2 bedrooms are very small, and of course the location is the worst imaginable. Its nestled between Kmart, a supermarket and BurgerKing (and I mean right between).
I would be interested, but only if it was in 20171.
Here is another small snapshot of a hard-hit newer neighborhood in Manassas. It appears that prices are close to 2003 levels here, even before all the houses that left the market unsold in the fall come back on in the spring:
8363 Tillet Loop
asking $349,900
bank takeover 8/3/2007
$560,000 6/28/2005
$332,850 2/3/2003
8305 Tillet Loop
asking $519,900
bank takeover 10/2/2007
$750,000 10/10/2006
$459,575 11/24/2003
8389 Tillet Loop
asking $475,000
$625,000 1/24/2006
$414,895 3/3/2003
8363 Gaither
asking $469,900
bank takeover 9/6/2007
$606,000 8/16/2006
$435,000 10/29/2003
8366 Gaither
asking $434,888
refinanced three times?
7/20/2006
12/29/2005
12/28/2004
$344,260 2/10/2003
8309 Tillet Loop
asking $474,900
$412,600 2/17/2004
Tabitha-
What part of PWC do you "digg" prices up in?
Bristow?
Haymarket?
Gainsville?
I'm lookn' for info on Haymarket / Sudley Road area - have you searched there or is that not where you want to be?
Thanks!
Spunky
Sorry, Spunky, I am not too familiar with Haymarket. I know some neighborhoods in Bristow pretty well, but mostly, I'm looking at Manassas.
I have excused myself from the debate on this blog for a while, because I was out buying a house. I have a few interesting stories to tell.
But I just stopped buy to see what is going on. I see Leroy is still keeping the sanity level in check. Thanks for toiling in what is needlessly a Herculean effort.
For now, I have to jump out of the bushes and yell "boo" to these dumb shits that keep saying "nothing is wrong with the orange line in Arlington."
Wishing does not make it so. Go the F and look.
1111 N. Utah Street
10/19/2005 $765,0000
12/5/2007 $715,000
This is a townhouse a few blocks from Balston metro. These are actual sales prices, not listing prices. That's a drop of $50,000, or 6.5%, folks.
One thing from my experience that I can tell propsective buyers out there, though, is be prepared for sellers who have been sold a bunch of crap from their realtor that all this talk of decreasing prices is just media doom and gloom. They really believe it.
And I can give you a ton of increases...3718 4th, 1711 Harvard, and many others. Your point being?
Caveat Emptor says Arlington is down, Narl says Arlinton is up. In an effort to try to "settle" this, I looked at sales records (qualifying sales in 05 & 07) to see the difference, and looking at newer construction to possibly exclude improvements.
The results? After searching addresses at random I found 3 up slighty, and 3 down slightly. Thus, I am proud to say I just wasted an hour of my life to prove nothing.
That said my gut feeling is the market is flat to ever-so-slightly-down.
"The results? After searching addresses at random I found 3 up slighty, and 3 down slightly. Thus, I am proud to say I just wasted an hour of my life to prove nothing."
You have not wasted your time. The same information is in Alexandria's data.
My interest is the area within a mile of me, which includes REED AV, aka "the Hole", and MANSION DR of BEVERLY HILLS.
Some houses are WAY up. In one case, a granite counter, fresh paint, new kitchen cabinets, $10K of very nice appliances, and careful staging equaled a $200K price boost on a small old house on a small lot.
In another, no work was done but the 10/2007 selling price jumped $400K over the 4/2005 selling price (the city used that number for the following year's assessment, strange how that works.)
Others, I've listed 2, are way down and have the bank owned, tags. A third has shown up on MLS.
3841 ELBERT AVE, 22305- $549,900.
City says,
Owned by DEUTSCHE BANK
M=foreclosure 05/2007 $690K
Supposedly it's a 4/3 but in 1361 sqft?
A few places are way up, many are up 5%, an equal number are down 5%, a few are way down.
I also believe the repeated claims that the orange line is just fine are a bunch of bull.
I admit the market is quite bi-polar, with listing prices and sales prices all over the map (and seemingly no logic when property A won't sell even at 10% below peak prices while similar property B sells immediately at 10% above peak prices), but overall I believe prices are in fact softening.
Of the last 16 units sold in Clarendon1021, 100% of them have been for less than the previous sales price. 100%. That doesn't indicate a strong market to me.
A single family house in Clarendon just sold for $412,000 (232 N. Cleveland). According to the listing this was a fixer upper, but there is no way this house would have sold for less than $600,000 at the peak (the then going rate for smallish lots).
And a townhouse is for sale at 2909 N. 9th St. for $699,000. The prior comp went for $760,000 at the end of 2006.
I can give numerous additional examples, but I think the point is clear - those suggesting the orange line is holding firm are either naive or deceitful.
Oh, and here is one more example:
3125 Arlington Blvd is a single family house in Clarendon. It sold for $660,000 in 2005 and was just reduced (again) to $539,000. That's a $131,000, or 18%, reduction.
Everything is just fine? Um, I don't think so.
Um, right. 3125 Arlington Boulevard, right on Route 50 and a mile walk from the Metro, is in "Clarendon"
John,
While I agree with you based on my general observations in this area, I have a couple of observations about your last example 3125 ARLINGTON BLVD.
First, that's pretty far from what I would consider Clarendon proper.
mapped: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=3125+ARLINGTON+BLVD,+arlington+va&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=58.209122,105.117188&ie=UTF8&ll=38.876618,-77.099218&spn=0.007083,0.012832&z=16&om=0
Second, it appears it's a foreclosure based on the Arlington County records.
http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/Inquiry.asp?action=view&lrsn=35423
Having said that, as these properties fall in value, it will continue to put pressure on the next street in, next house in, etc.
My $0.02
Sure 3125 Arlington Blvd is just off of Route 50, but it is in Lyon Park which is the neighborhood that comprises the southern half of Clarendon. Sorry if its falling price doesn't help the "everything is fine on the orange line" story.
If the place on rte 50 is a foreclosure, then the next question is what condition is it in? Even in the best of markets, foreclosures can be absolutely torn apart as the inhabitant "gets his" by tearing the place to shreds. That might go along way to explaining the reduced price.
crt - there are pictures of the interior on the mls listing. it looks like it is in fine condition.
another thing that might go a long way in explaining the falling price is simply that prices paid during the bubble were way too high and people are waking up to that reality.
i wouldn't be surprised to see houses comparable to this one sell for about $400,000 by the time the house price correction is over. as "shocking" as that kind of price decline would be to some, it would only put us back to 2003 prices.
Clarendon and Lyon Park are different neighborhoods. You can't be in both. People get wierd about the neighborhoods and will pay more to be a little closer. It's even worse with renters, which I found out with my Lee Heights place. I live in Ashton Heights, which is purportedly "desirable," but if you cross Glebe into Buckingham, then you are in an "undesirable" neighborhood that is only 1/4 mile away. It will be interesting to see how those new TH's on Henderson and George Mason will sell (I think they won't). When the builder drops prices it will put downward pressure on other TH owners.
There is way too much macro-economic talk on this blog when psychology had a lot to do with both the bubble and the burst. Real estate was dead when people were awash in dot-bust money. I bought a lot of cheap real estate on the Orange Line back in 1999-2001.
By the way, anyone know what is going on with Liberty Center? Are they having closings yet, or are people backing out of their contracts and/or forefeting their deposits? That should be something to watch this Spring.
Just put another offer on another house, which was rejected out of hand. Quote from the seller: "You can get a townhouse for that kind of money." Oh, well. It's been on the market for more than two years...will be curious to see if it ever, ever sells.
Moving on to the next house, which is a foreclosure...its listing was actually just withdrawn, but it is being relisted with a new agent, I guess so it will look like a new listing. Like someone on this thread mentioned, I think the previous owners took out their feelings on the house when they left. It is in terrible shape. I wonder if the bank realizes this? The listing said "gourmet kitchen," but every appliance, every light fixture, every cabinet door, and much of the wiring in the halls has been ripped out, and the corian countertops and tile backsplash were cracked in the process. And that's just the kitchen's problems...
Tabitha-
Try finding foreclosures that aren't so beat up...
And re-submit an offer on the house that just rejected you all in June or July (that is, if they don't sell)
By the summer, after the realization hits home that they've endured another sprung-Spring market, they may be ready to bargin.
Sounds like they don't *have* to sell...
Are they any of my "3-D's of Real Estate?"
(Dirty, Desperate, Divorce, or Dead?)
Bill said: "Clarendon and Lyon Park are different neighborhoods. You can't be in both."
We're now getting way off-track, but the precise dimensions of Clarendon are not defined anywhere. However, the civic associations comprising the Clarendon Alliance association include Ashton Heights, Clarendon-Courthouse, Lyon Park and Lyon Village.
Hey Spunky, thanks for looking out for me.
I guess the sellers are not desperate, even though they've been trying to sell the house for more than two years, and even though they are a home builder/realtor couple. Their problem is that they built their McMansion on a lot in an older neighborhood that is surrounded by little concrete boxes from the 1960s. We dearly love the owners of those little houses, so we would love to continue to be their neighbors, but I just don't see someone with $650K to spend on a house buying their McMansion when there are so many other, cheaper ones to choose from...we shall see...
And this super-destroyed foreclosure just so happens to be on a great yard right around the corner from us...but I am very conflicted about pursuing such a house just for its location...hmmm...
Oops...forgot to mention the sellers who rejected our offer have been living elsewhere for the past couple years, so they have been paying taxes/utilites/insurance/maintenance on an empty house for a long long time...
Bill,
I agree with you about the new townhouses in Buckingham, with the possible caveat that the whole area is being re-done and after Georgetown Strategic Capital gets done with the Glebe/Pershing intersection and a Trader Joes or whatnot goes in there, combined with the bus yards development, the vibe may be much different. I already notice a difference now relative to 5 years or so ago, for the better.
There is a Clarendon and Route 50 ain't in it, unless you are a RE agent listing a Lyon Park house. On the South side of Clarendon Blvd, 10th and Cleveland Streets are the boundaries. No one would say Ashton Heights is in Clarendon. People do get wierd about these things too and it does skew values.
I agree. A mile walk to the metro is not an orange line house, which by my definition allows a married couple to have one car and not pay for two parkings spots in a downtown garage (i.e. at least one of them takes the Metro every day), which saves many hundreds of dollars every month. No DINK couple living on Route 50 and Irving will have only one car.
Most of those who post here need to step back a bit. Think about it, those that repeatedly post counter to the general consensus of those who contribute most often have 1) financial and/or 2)emotional vested interests in sticking to their guns. I don't blame them even if I think for the most part they are simply doing what they can to convince the world that their neighborhood is special and impervious to the current economic situation.
They may have watched their house or townhouse more than double in "paper value" in the boom or they bought during the run-up and want to keep their so-called equity (if they have any). Either way there is much to be lost if there is a drop in the values of their dwellings. They can write on and on about having a home makes you a more vested person in a community. That is rather moot since over half of those who live here will leave at some point. People move on the average about every 4 to 5 years, whether it is from one area of town to another of out of the area all together. The metro area is very fluid. Move them in and move them out.
It also is a double-edged sword for those who bought low in years past because their property taxes have gone through the roof. Even with that they have comforted themselves with the idea that their property would retain its new perceived value. Why they are a part of the elite now. There is ego and prestige involved and those are two human traits that will fight to win almost to the death of "self." Money or the values of things are important to people whether they admit or not. Everyone wants to believe they are special. Who they are, what they have, their jobs, their children so forth and so on.
That being said, the closer in properties "values" probably won’t drop like outlying areas, but many of this blog’s contributors could care less. Some want to live in the suburbs or exurbs with no desire whatsoever to be on the orange line, blue line, red line or any line. The repeated mantras of those close in mean little or nothing to those seriously looking for a house 1) near their work out of DC or 2) where they want their kids to go to school. It is also seems that those who go on and on about their neighborhoods and houses are probably not parents or their children are grown. People in that stage of life often chose to live in the small houses and townhouses close in. They are in a very different place than most of those who have children living at home or those are planning to have a family. Albeit some couples prefer to live in town in cramped quarters for the atmosphere because that is what they like. I have known a few here like that and back home in Atlanta, but they are a minority. And of course, there are the extremely well-to-do who like intown living. Most people are not in that category either.
Those close in aren’t the “average” home owner in America or in the metro area for that matter. The vast majority of the populations in the metro areas don’t live close in and probably a majority of those have no desire to live close in. In many cases but the price they would have to pay for these wonderful 2 bedroom, 1 bath houses exceed what they want to pay for a house or would pay even if they had the money. People in the suburbs generally are there because they want a larger house, bigger yard and prefer the school systems and like living “out there.” They aren't stupid, weird, or wasteful. They do what is best for them. For those who live in the further reaches of the metro area, I can’t say. Probably in those cases they couldn’t live in the closer suburbs because they were priced out of the type of house they wanted. People hopefully live where they can afford to live and in something that fits their lifestyle and family situation.
I completely understand the desire of some who work in the District and have no children or have very small children to be in the close in neighborhoods. Fine, if you have the money and don’t mind paying $600k for a tiny 1200 sq ft house that needs work, then by all means do that. They are not the norm. They are the norm amongst your friends and neighbors, but they aren’t the norm for the general population.
Arguing with people about quality of life issues and measuring others by what you value and want is self-righteous and silly.
If your mortgaged house retains the its value, good for you. If you won it outright, good for you. You probably don’t plan on the leaving the area so it doesn’t matter what the value of your house is or your neighbor’s.
I will bet money though that eventually there will be some decrease in value. Maybe not much, but some. If you ever have to sell you may find that buyers will be in a bind because they can’t sell their houses and get the equity out that will be required to buy your house. In many areas the “contracts” have kickback clauses therefore plenty of the “sold” are back on the market after several months. There are housee languishing on the market for months and years with zero offers. It is bad out there and in the metro area. That is a fact.
I will bet money though that eventually there will be some decrease in value. Maybe not much, but some. ... It is bad out there and in the metro area. That is a fact.
How do you reconcile these statements? You state it will decrease "some", but then go on to say how bad it is. You haven't made a quantitative statement stating what you believe will happen to home prices in NOVA.
I've come out and said 20-30% off the peak prices. My definition of NOVA = Fairfax county, Alexandria county, Arlington county, Prince William county and DC.
"I've come out and said 20-30% off the peak prices. My definition of NOVA = Fairfax county, Alexandria county, Arlington county, Prince William county and DC."
Alexandria - over all, peak to trough, 10% delta. Duration of trough, 1 year.
A 3/1.5 SFH in Del Ray that peaked at $700K in 2005/6 might bottom out at $630K.
Most places don't turn over and most HH won't notice.
"I've come out and said 20-30% off the peak prices. My definition of NOVA = Fairfax county, Alexandria county, Arlington county, Prince William county and DC."
There are a lot of problems with trying to make really specific predictions. Some of the key questions are over what time frame we are talking, and whether or not we are talking about real or nominal values.
Over the long run the whole region will move down but it obviously won't happen all at once. (just as the bubble didn't form all at once...)
Each of out housing pumpers has their own "home turf" that they all insist is completely immune to any possible price declines yet all of these areas experienced the same run-up in prices seen in the rest of the region.(and much of the country)
I think kcwood is basically right, the real estate pumpers grew to like the idea that they were suddenly part of some kind of elite and are having a hard time letting go.
They know they couldn't have afforded their own home if pricing had been at bubble levels when they bought it, but they insist the pricing is justified and are fiercely opposed to the idea that in a few years someone like they were when they bought might buy a house on their street just like they did...
"Alexandria - over all, peak to trough, 10% delta. Duration of trough, 1 year. "
Ignoring for the time being the 10% prediction...
What is your reasoning behind saying the "trough" will be one year in duration?
Virtually all real estate corrections are followed by multi-year periods of stagnant pricing. What you are describing would be very atypical.
Why do you expect this sort of unusual market behavior?
Thanks to KCWood for a well thought out essay.
I suspect that everyone with a few exceptions, wants to live here, that is, closer in and nearer services, jobs, etc. (not necessarily right HERE.)
No one wants to live out there. Where the coyote's howl all night.
Most people do not live here because it is too expensive.
Homes in this area range from modest cottages on 5,000 sqft lots to impressive, expanded or new construction large homes. For example, this house does not overshadow its neighbors. About every 3rd house looks like it.
2.2 mill is pricey. Who can afford it? Here's a smaller, more affordable place.
Wanting is one thing, affording is another. Since most cannot afford 2.2 mill, we make compromises.
One compromise is to live in a condo. Another is to drive 3 hours each day. There are other options.
There are people who will not live close in. Horses, a working farm, waterfront estates and a private dock for their yacht are sound reasons. There are others.
For most people, it's simply the cost. Each 1% drop in price increases the pool of people who afford to buy. A 10% drop increases the pool 10X more than 1%.
At most times, less than 1% of the housing stock in this area is available for sale.
These small numbers kept prices here from falling as they did, out there. It is different here. It always has been.
Leroy...just to clarify, I'm talking non-inflation adjusted and a time frame within 5 years of the peak. The "bottom" could come soon or later, it depends on the economy and how fast sentiment changes. My bias is I want it to come faster.
I could be completely off, but I thought I'd throw out my numbers. :) I'll have no issue saying I was wrong if it turns out to be that way. We may even come to find my numbers are conservative...
kh . .. "For most people, it's simply the cost. Each 1% drop in price increases the pool of people who afford to buy. A 10% drop increases the pool 10X more than 1%."
What kind of messed up math/statistics is that? Unless you can prove that the income of those in the market to buy scales linearly, that just voodoo math. And since they don't, what you said is complete bunk.
Due to the way income scales, I would gander it's something like a Gaussian distribution, a 10% decline in prices does not equate to a 10x increase in the # of people who could buy.
Depending on many standard deviations the median housing price is vs. median income, it could mean a median drop of 10% would only bring in 1.25 times the number of buyers at a 1% drop, or maybe less than 1.25 it just depends on how things scale.
Thought I'd post an interesting sale that popped up in Old Town :
http://tinyurl.com/2w72u2
The story :
This home was bought with what looks like $0 down in Sep 2004 for $575K. A 1st trust was listed as $460K...add 20% of the sales price and it comes to $575K which makes me believe it was setup that way simple to avoid PMI and there was no down payment.
I actually looked at this place when they put it on the market at the end of 2006 for $650K which they dropped to $600K. I specifically remember telling the realtor the market will go down and this home was priced too high. He said the sellers would rent if it didn't sell as they had bought a home elsewhere. It was pulled from the market in 96 days...I'm guessing the dual mortgages were impossible to pay without rental income.
Now it is on the market as a short sale listed at $525K. The MLS comments show it has a tenant. This home is in the very desirable south east quadrant of Old Town and is assessed at $601K (2007). BTW, same RE agent - Tom Greenly.
If they hadn't been greedy and sold in 2006, they would not have been in a short sale. My gut says this place should sell pretty fast, so I'm watching it with interest. It would be interesting if it sold for less than $500K.
Recap - bought in Sep 2004 for $575K zero down...on market Feb 2007 for $50K less. Considering peak was mid 2005, this is already 10+% off.
"Due to the way income scales, I would gander it's something like a Gaussian distribution, a 10% decline in prices does not equate to a 10x increase in the # of people who could buy."
A mathematician and not an engineer. Good for you.
We're dealing with small numbers here. There are fewer than a half dozen houses in this entire zip code that are reasonably interesting but beyond affordable.
Lets see how long this one is on the market and what it sells for.
"Thought I'd post an interesting sale that popped up in Old Town :
http://tinyurl.com/2w72u2
"
That one is interesting. By the way, you can create hotlink? No one is linking to pages. Here's how:
<
a href="http://tinyurl.com/2w72u2"
>
717 S PITT ST
<
/a>
Take out the blanks and returns.
717 S PITT ST
That's a cozy house, 432 sqft footprint? Rooms must be tiny.
I lived in a place with "Deeded curbspace", if it looks like a city street, people will park in your space.
I agree, that's an interesting one.
Yeah, I didn't link it, sorry. The size is 864 sq ft, if you don't count the basement - by no means a "large" house. And the spaces in the front are actually marked with a sign (I did a walk-by) - no one was parked in them. :)
"My gut says this place should sell pretty fast, so I'm watching it with interest. It would be interesting if it sold for less than $500K."
Good find Alexa. Here is a place 6 doors down, also in the same "Yates Garden" (former WWII era housing) complex. This one is a bit (50 square feet) larger, and sold for $639,900 in July 07.
http://realestate.alexandriava.gov/detail.php?accountno=11197500
Given the near perfect comp, if it does go for only 500K, or even something close to that, it would suggest that there is something seriously wrong with it. I guess we shall see.
CRT...actually, it's just Alex. :) The blog software doesn't account for caps (AlexA).
There is nothing wrong with the place, I saw it a year ago. I don't recall anything great about it either. Of note, 705 has 1,700 sq ft of land while 717 has 2,958. The assessed value and sales records are way different. I'd have to take a look to see what the real differences are.
Alexandria - over all, peak to trough, 10% delta. Duration of trough, 1 year.
KH, wanna guess outside of your area? And I assume "Alexandria" means the county of Alexandria? I used to lived in Alexandria, but it was in FF county.
This surely doesn't apply to anyone here...
"Hugh Moore, a principal at Guerite Advisors, a research and financial advisory firm, said he wasn't surprised by the denial demonstrated in the survey results. He said research into previous housing busts shows homeowners are slow to accept that their home has lost value.
"It's a visceral reaction; you lock into the highest price you ever heard, and you're going to hang onto it," Moore said. "It's a grieving process. First you go through denial and disbelief. Acceptance is the last step you get to.""
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/07/news/economy/homeowners_views/index.htm?postversion=2008020717
Actually kh, I am an engineer and if you knew anything about being an engineer you'd know you have to understand math in order to be a good engineer-obviously you don't.
My point stand, unless you can prove unequivocally that the income in that area scales linearly, you have no basis in you statement.
Bill said: "Clarendon and Lyon Park are different neighborhoods. You can't be in both."
Sorry Bill, but you are clearly wrong. Look at this link listing recent sales in Lyon Park and note Arlington County's neighborhood designation at the top right side of the page (it says "Sales in NBHD 507058: CLARENDON")
http://www.co.arlington.va.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/saleslist.asp?Action=View&nbhd=507058&lrsn=34523&backRPC=19008020
and even more sales in Lyon Park (or as Arlington County refers to it "Sales in NBHD 506057: CLARENDON"):
http://www.co.arlington.va.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/saleslist.asp?Action=View&nbhd=506057&lrsn=33429&backRPC=18041007
More homes are going under contract. From VirginiaMLS
1/08 Fairfax County 6411 7211
So 800 homes under contract
From Today
2/08 Fairfax County 6364 7544
So 1180 homes under contract. Other close in counties are showing similar numbers. Far out areas getting worse however ( as to be expected )
JF,
I'm wrong because pointed a neighborhood between Wilson and Pershing just west of the silver diner? Ok. Is Route 50 there? If you cross 10th at Cleveland, are you still in Clarendon? I don't think anyone would dispute that the area around the old Goodyear is Clarendon. If you cross 10th in the area between Cleveland and Wash Blvd, you are not in Clarendon because you are in Lyon Park (the park itself is south of Pershing at Garfield). By the way, values do drop when you cross 10th or Pershing and people are snooty about it. Same thing applies to Glebe and Carlyn Springs Roads.
On to listings:
441 N. Nelson is being listed by Russell Arkin. It's across 5th Street from 503 N. Nelson, which recently sold. It looks pretty small but is well-maintained. $815K is steep but it has 3BA. Definitely would have been listed for more in 2005, but in 2003 houses like this were priced in the high $500s.
Bill, note that with respect to 441 Nelson, it is a bumpup with 1 bedroom on the second floor, 2BR/1BA on the main floor and a full bath on the bottom floor. So not exactly spacious.
"By the way, values do drop when you cross 10th or Pershing and people are snooty about it. Same thing applies to Glebe and Carlyn Springs Roads."
It's even worse on Russell Road. One side is "Beverly Hills", the other side is "Hume" or something like that.
Mansion Drive changes its name to Mt. Ida when it crosses Russell. Monticello becomes Birch.
"KH, wanna guess outside of your area? And I assume "Alexandria" means the county of Alexandria? I used to lived in Alexandria, but it was in FF county."
Yeah, I'm talking about the real Alexandria and not the realtor Alexandria, which extends out into Fairfax.
I'll go with a 10% Delta on the average. That's probably a bit more BH than your 20%-30% for the area since that would include PWC.
"Given the near perfect comp, if it does go for only 500K, or even something close to that, it would suggest that there is something seriously wrong with it. I guess we shall see."
The pictures looked pretty good. How long it sits and the selling price will tell the story.
Saw these articles and thought some might be interested:
Hot Market: Arlington VA -- Double Digit Gains Return
Realty Times
Arlington, VA - been strong, staying strong
Altos Research Real Estate Research
I lived in Arlington, in Ashton Heights and Clarendon for fifteen years from 1985 - 2000, and saw my home's value, and my neighbor's homes appreciate in value - no matter what real estate did elsewhere.
Some markets, such as those in Arlington and Alexandria are not being negatively affected by a real estate downturn - because the neighborhoods are perceived as extremely desirable. I now live in Fairfax County and hope to able to afford Arlington County again in the near future. I miss living there so much. It is indeed one of the best places to live in the world.
Joyrenee,
You may get your chance a lot sooner than those articles would indicate. They mention 4 zipcodes in the second article (22201, 22207, 22206, and 22204).
You can go here to look at the YOY sales information from MRIS:
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/zip_stats.cfm
'01 and '06 are relatively flat. '04 is down 12.8% and only 22207 shows an increase - ~49%. I think this last number represents a lot of the tear downs replaced by McMansions. There were 19 sales that month 9 of them that are north of $1 million.
The second article doesn't really quote any statistics, just talks in general "realtor-ese."
My opinion is that these few large sales (in 22207) are skewing the numbers for a general conversation about all Arlington zipcodes. Further, continuing declines and pricing pressures from outer lying areas will continue to press in on the inner suburbs.
My $0.02
"My opinion is that these few large sales (in 22207) are skewing the numbers for a general conversation about all Arlington zipcodes."
I see signs of that in Alexandria too. I've linked to two houses that jumped almost 40%, one had fresh paint, a new kitchen and was very carefully "staged". The other simply went for more.
The average house in the average neighborhood looks flat compared to a year ago. Not a bubble bursting but not zooming up in price like that article says.
So I guess we've all given up looking at prices outside the beltway and only look in the rich parts of Arlington and Alexandria? Very telling. :)
I'm currently taking a quick look at Ashburn and Leesburg. Whew! The overprice fairy is working her magic! I've always wanted to live in a neighborhood where all homes look exactly same, can be seen from every side, and was obviously built somewhere where they just razed the land. 1/2 a million dollars? What a bargain!
717 S Pitt is under contract. That was fast. :)
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