8191 COMMUNITY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $110,000
Prior Sale: $293,000 10/24/2005
Listing Date: 02/11/08
-62.5%
10127 LOMOND DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $170,900
Prior Sale: $430,000 6/30/2006
Listing Date: 02/07/08
-60.3%
9547 DAMASCUS DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $167,400
Prior Sale: $395,000 12/27/2005
Listing Date: 02/09/08
-57.6%
15112 ILLINOIS RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $189,900
Prior Sale: $415,000 12/1/2006
Listing Date: 02/11/08
-54.2%
7555 WHITEHALL DR
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $139,000
Prior Sale: $302,000 6/20/2006
Listing Date: 02/05/08
-54.0%
(See "Same-House Sales" document for more)
And just in case you miss it, here's a modest $520K drop:
15952 SPYGLASS HILL LOOP
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $649,900
Prior Sale: $1,169,900 2/11/2005
Listing Date: 02/12/08
-44.4%
Links by FranklyMLS.com
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Prince William County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 7:01 PM
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27 comments:
I went back into the archives just to compare this post to some of the ones from last spring... just amazing how quickly 20-30% declines have turned into 50%+ declines.
I also found some great old discussions...
http://tinyurl.com/286lly
"But aren't all the fundamentals out there pointing to ever increasing pressure on prices --- particularly here in the Washington area?
...
I could go on and on, but to me at least the fundamentals all point to increasing pressure on prices ... not decreasing pressure." -Lance 7/22/07
"you have a point. most bh's already have their minds made up and they are just looking to comiserate with like minded folks. i guess i like the idea that someday the honest ones among them will say "Jez, Lance was right. I wish I'd listened to him. I wouldn't be renting a room in a trailer for so much more a month than if I'd just bought a house before prices rose even further and made it impossible for me to ever buy my own place. So much for David J and his pre-pubescent predictions."." Lance 7/23/07
"Things are just as Va_Investor and I pointed out a multitude of times. Prices slightly and temporarily dipped for condos and new development areas, prices continuing to increase for desireable and established areas, and people just going on with their lives ... Except for the Bubble Heads of course who continue to wait in vain hoping that "bad fortune" will befall others so that they can then swoop down like vultures." Lance 7/25/07
And to think he wonders why people don't take him seriously...
:P
BBC Doc - Bursting the House Price Bubble
Mortgage lenders have called for tighter rules to stop possible mortgage fraud involving the sale of newly built city-centre flats.
It seems at least BBC is admitting there's problem in there country, let see how long it takes our media to come up with a documentary for this whole mess.
I know its not DC, but I assume everyone has read about the large price drop in San Diego? I'm going to wait for Case-Shiller, but the median price fell off a cliff.
I could go on and on, but to me at least the fundamentals all point to increasing pressure on prices ... not decreasing pressure." -Lance 7/22/07
ROTFL. Nice find.
I like this quote from bublemeter:
On July 23 Lance said:
“i guess i like the idea that someday the honest ones among them will say ‘Jez, Lance was right. I wish I'd listened to him. I wouldn't be renting a room in a trailer for so much more a month than if I'd just bought a house before prices rose even further and made it impossible for me to ever buy my own place.’
Nice of him to wish us a spot in a trailer. I think there are enough places affordable now. Now what didn't he predict the current credit crisis? ;)
Ok, back on topic:
We all know prices won't drop to zero, but how far will they drop in DC? I've predicted on another blog 10% to 20% drop in 2008 and 20% to 30% in 2009. But... could things be happening faster?
Banks are going begging for an FHA bailout on quite a few loans that are... behind on their payments. I cannot help but notice that calculatedrisk has more information about the collapsing CDO market. How many banks will that take down?
I'm liking the future market where my only competition are the types who save. :) Recall that to get to 'normal recession sales' we still have about another 1/3rd drop in home sales rates ahead. :)
To think, everything that has happened so far has led major job losses. Now we go forward with quite a few expected layoffs. I'd hate to be any type of consumer salesperson; as MEW drops so will many sales.
Got popcorn?
Neil
"Nice of him to wish us a spot in a trailer. I think there are enough places affordable now."
No, he was right. We have been priced out forever for scorning the real estate fairy. If we had taken his advice she would have granted us riches like everyone else... now that chance is gone forever...
I think 2008 will finally bring the bust all the way in to the center of the metro area. Houses out west are already in a complete state of freefall. Even the most delusional sellers have to be wondering about their chances when they see the house down the street asking 50% less... and sitting.
The drop is likely to be much less steep in places like Alexandria and Arlington, at least on SFHs, but in the long run as we have explained here plenty enough times... prices will have to fall everywhere. Prices in Manassas don't fall 50-60% without affecting neighboring areas... etc etc
Arlington and Alexandria City are both very small areas, and for the most part very ordinary.
Hopefully things will be done shaking out by the time I return to the DC area in a few years. I suspect by that point sanity will be well established again.
I noticed my tax assesment (loudoun) went down by $150,000 - ok fine by me, but then I saw this in the news today
http://www.loudountimes.com/news/2008
/feb/11
/taxes-go-under-proposed-budget-plan/
LoCo wants to raise the tax rate from about $0.98 to $1.126 Seems that no matter what they are gonna get $5000 a year from me in tax
actually it is currently $0.96!
Should have checked for typos...the BUYER made payments for two years, I meant...
Sounds like the bank wants to unload it so if its the house for you then count yourself lucky!
"My client prefers not to disclose his identity."
WARNING WARNING WILL ROBINSON
Uh, he/she will have to disclose it eventually!! (if they want to sell the place, that is!)
Tabitha-
doesn't this "deal" give your Realtor a bad feeling/vibe?
Sounds shady to me - I'd run not walk away from this deal asap
The price still sounds too high even at 150k off-
PLEASE wait another 3-4 Months.
That's when the desperate sellers will really show!
Tabitha,
I would only say, make sure you have a good real estate lawyer check things out, and make sure your real estate agent isn't a rookie.
Oh, and I would make doubly sure the person you're buying the house from actually owns it!
Good luck!
My $0.02
Our agent interpreted the "secret identity" thing to mean there must be a third party approval situation of some sort.
But from the best my research can tell, the builder's lender took possession of the house in October.
They're going to let us do an inspection, and said they would even be willing to make repairs if any were needed--though it is almost a new house, and looks OK, if dinged up.
At first, we felt $400K was a safe range for such a large house--almost 6000 sqft, according to the county website.
We're just worried that we're missing something else...
Harriet,
Would you mind posting again on what exactly you track and what areas you look at?
Also, do you have any information on the volume of discounts you are seeing per area?
As I mentioned in another post, a friend is looking inside the beltway with very modest requirements and I am amazed at the sheer volume of listings his agent is finding for him.
I'd be curious to see what the volume/inventory looks like over time. Is there really a wave coming from the outer suburbs in as most of us have expected?
Thank you for all of the time and effort you put into this blog!
My $0.02
On the lowball, as someone who's an amateur but has done a couple of these as 100% 'private' transactions, please ditch the agent and get real legal advice. It's cheaper and much safer. By "real" I mean: advice from a member of the bar. You'll definitely need a lawyer to close, so you're paying for one anyway. Lawyer's fees are generally less than the agent's & broker's cuts. If you're already stuck w/ the Realtor, bypass them to deal with the attorney directly anyway.
I'd recommend you pay the extra for title insurance; if you believe this is a short sale and there's any chance that a lien-holder is accepting less than full payment, you're better off protecting your title. It may seem like an unnecessary ripoff, but it's worth every penny.
Just my $.02. Best of luck!
PLEASE wait another 3-4 Months.
Tabitha:
The deals are getting better monthly. Eventually there will be a time to jump in and low ball. We're not there yet.
Now I'm a believer its ok to leave $100k on the table if you really like the home and will live there a long time. Do you really think you're getting close enough to the bottom? Do follow Spunky's advice and hire an attorney to double check.
I have a coworker who bought in Las Vegas with a similar deal six months ago. 43% off of peak. Yesterday he found out that someone's unskilled kid brother bought into the same track for $150k less. These are for homes on a golf course in a desirable area in an area overbuilt to the same level as DC.
To anticipate the next Lance snippet: I have staff in six states and soon two more.
WSJ blog not optimistic:
The January retail sales data is not consistent with either same store chain sales or total vehicle sales during the sampling period. We are highly skeptical of … a 1.4% increase in clothing sales when major clothing department stores such as Nordstrom’s, Macy’s and teen retailers across the board recorded negative sales during the month. Perhaps the -1.1% decline in sales at department stores is a better indicator of the actual retail sales number once we get what will almost surely be a downward revision is the data next month. –Joseph Brusuelas, IDEAglobal
I personally believe the January retail sales were bogus. The reported sales number does not correlate with how the merchants are doing.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Harriet,
Would you mind posting again on what exactly you track and what areas you look at?
Also, do you have any information on the volume of discounts you are seeing per area?
For Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties I take a large sampling of each week's new listings and look up their prior sales price. For Arlington, I look up prior sales about every month for a month's worth of listings.
The counties from the hardest hit to the smallest are: Prince William, Loudoun, Fairfax, Alexandria, and Arlington.
I wish I had hard data on the trends for same-house sales prices for everything on the market in NoVA, but I don't at present have any easy way of doing this. (There's a possibility this data might be easier to obtain with some changes being made at MRIS, so I'm hopeful). Currently I rely on the county websites for sold data.
These resources are also interesting:
Housing Tracker (Which most of us are familiar with, I think)
and
OSG Boomerang Hardtack -- you can select an individual city for pricing and inventory changes. I think both this one and HousingTracker use Realtor.com for their data.
And don't forget VirginiaMLS for a snapshot of inventory.
Just saw the Manassas City assessor's website got its February update, and I did a quick check of houses that sold the past two months; I used the price range of $350-$600K:
9748 Zimbro
12/26/2007 350,000
9/5/2007 395,000 (relo company)
12/31/1998 177,000
2007 assessed value: 494,900
2006 assessed value: 613,600
9409 Beauregard
1/23/2008 400,000
1/11/2005 575,000
2007 assessed value: 520,400
2008 assessed value: 597,700
*relo company took it over summer 2006, was for sale for almost 2 years
8323 Tillet Loop
1/16/2008 425,000
7/3/2006 604,000
8/11/2003 414,725
bank takeover: 10/5/2007
2007 assessed value: 569,400
2008 assessed value: 655,000
9339 Sumner Lake
12/27/2007 395,000
12/7/2006 515,000
10/2/2003 394,950
8/14/2001 354,897
bank takeover: 12/13/2007
2007 assessed value: 534,800
2008 assessed value: 596,900
Honestly, these are less dramatic numbers than I expected, but interesting, nonetheless. And just a sampling...
Couple more:
9430 Stilson
2/1/2008 210,000
10/6/2003 351,965
2007 assessment: 525,700
2006 assessment: 517,800
9616 Waterford
12/7/2007 283,500 (investment company?)
6/29/2005 490,000
2/18/1987 136,400
bank takeover 3/16/2007
2007 assessment: 489,800
2006 assessment: 490,700
Wait, what is that county assessor smoking? According to him property values increased 15% last year? ROFL! I guess they did this to get back some tax revenue they lost due to all the properties going into foreclosure.
Yikes, I messed up AGAIN...sorry folks, early pregnancy brain at work here. The assessments I listed were all for 2007, then 2006, NOT 2007, then 2008. The 2008 assessments are not out yet. They are supposed to be 15-20% less than last year's, which were still inflated.
My apologies for not being more careful with my posts.
Update for our offer:
We made our offer, the bank countered, we stayed with our original offer. Waiting to hear back.
But the interesting thing is what the seller's agent said. She told our agent that he should advise us to be aware that we are "already" getting the house for $250K less than the last purchase, and that if we really can't go for a jumbo loan, we should not waste our agent's time looking at such fine houses.
Sounds a lot like the last seller's agent, who told us to "go rent a townhouse."
These are for offers about 45% off peak.
"She told our agent that he should advise us to be aware that we are "already" getting the house for $250K less than the last purchase, and that if we really can't go for a jumbo loan, ... "
You play poker?
My associates and I considered offering $280K for a place listed at over $300K, the agent told us not to bother.
Hey, no problem.
Thing is, our agent told the seller's agent we could never go above the jumbo loan line, so would we be wasting our time writing an offer? She called back almost immediately and said the seller said to put it in writing. So we did, and then she says we shouldn't waste everyone's time putting such a low offer on such a nice house. That doesn't make much sense to me.
"That doesn't make much sense to me."
It makes perfect sense.
They're trying to rattle you, make you mad.
"Yooouuuu can't afford a fiiiine place like this."
They wanted to knock you off balance, get you mad so you'll reply, "Oh yes I can."
and
"I can pay a whole lot more. I'm raising my bid way up."
Ohhhhhhhh...
Shame we don't have any more money to throw their way.
Shame we have a long list of other houses we'd be happy with.
Shame for them, at least.
We'll see what happens...
"We'll see what happens..."
Watch the ebb and flow of the market. Something will come along.
As long as you're not set on a specific house in a specific place right now, you'll find something at "your" price.
It's easier when prices are rocketing up because you can find someone who hasn't done their homework, catch them thinking last year's prices are high.
The problem "right now" is that the general public (and their realtors) do not know what fair market value is.
I "suspect" that even way out there, that no one knows.
I'm "guessing" that most of the pullback has already happened. The clues, builders have shut down new construction, government schemes to lower interest rates and raise the Jumbo thresh hold.
The trick is to find someone (some bank) that's tired of holding and wants out. Don't expect to buy at 10¢ on the dollar or hit the absolute rock bottom. Those 30% and 40% off-peak deals look interesting.
At some point, someone will accept a fair but low offer. There's low and there's ridiculous.
Every Real Estate firm is talking to an investment group, Doctors, Dentists, Lawyers, businessmen, who have serious money on the sidelines. They'll get the screaming deals. As long as you're a few percent above them, you're good to go. You are holding good cards in this poker game.
A house just sitting there is costing someone thousands of dollars a month.
My group made a run at a house last fall; they wouldn't play; we put our checkbook away.
kh, thank you so much for your insight.
every house we have put an offer on sold to an investor for slightly less than we offered, but for cash. that leaves us thinking we are looking at the right houses, for the right prices.
because the military has chosen our houses for us the past seven years, we are not picky. we can be patient. if nothing works out when our lease is up in June, we will try to rent another place.
we should hear back from the seller today. i'll let you know what happens.
again, thank you.
Neil "Now I'm a believer its ok to leave $100k on the table if you really like the home and will live there a long time. Do you really think you're getting close enough to the bottom?"
I don't think it's a $100K swing; on those places like 9430 Stilson, $210K askin' off a 2007 assessment of $525K? I'd be tempted to offer $210K, that's if I liked the place.
Tabitha, my opinion is that we are close to the bottom. However, there are so many places for sale in Manassas, that prices are not going to rebound fast.
You hold all the cards. The golden rule - you have the gold, you make the rules.
I like the numbers that you've found. You'll find something good at your price.
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