612 MAPLE AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $239,000
Prior Sale: $500,000 12/08/2005
Listing Date: 02/20/08
-52.2%
311 ARGUS PL #167
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $178,000
Prior Sale: $355,000 05/01/2006
Listing Date: 02/20/08
-49.9%
620 YORK LN SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $171,000
Prior Sale: $337,900 4/24/2006
Listing Date: 02/25/08
-49.4%
301 WILLIAMSBURG RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $244,900
Prior Sale: $479,000 8/30/2005
Listing Date: 02/20/08
-48.9%
32 HUNTLEY CT
STERLING, VA 20165
List Price: $185,900
Prior Sale: $350,000 03/03/2006
Listing Date: 02/19/08
-46.9%
See Loudoun County 2/26/2008 for more comparisons from this week's listings.
(Links by FranklyMLS.com)
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Loudoun County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 11:42 PM
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30 comments:
Holy smokes . . . after being told for so many years this area has the lowest unemployment look at this article
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/worklife/02/25/worst.job.states/index.html
DC comes in at #6. Now I imagine Nova is lower but a 6.1% unemployment doesn't bode well.
I saw that story the other day, gte. Conversely, Virginia is at 3.2 (8th lowest rate out of all 50 states) and Maryland is 3.7 (15th lowest rate)
The data seems to indicate the job growth is in the burbs. Costs too much to build the jobs in town, so they move them to the burbs? Maybe the law of unintended consequences?
Now where are people commuting to? From the city to the burbs?
My friend is also a lobbyist, and his new job has him commuting to Virginia from his Capitol Hill townhome. Seems you can't get away from it.
Fed is finally getting worried about inflation:
He warned the Fed may have to pull back on its efforts to stimulate the economy. "In the months ahead, the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor closely inflation and inflation expectations," Bernanke said.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/
02/27/news/economy/
bernanke_house/index.htm?cnn=yes
Now wait a second... buyers lack down payments and cannot afford their monthly payments... Not exactly an environment for price increases. Not with the unemployment gte811i noted. gte811i's link broken up:
http://www.cnn.com/2008
/LIVING/worklife/02/25
/worst.job.states/index.html
The data seems to indicate the job growth is in the burbs. Costs too much to build the jobs in town, so they move them to the burbs? Maybe the law of unintended consequences?
Gas prices are driving people to where they work. I know my employer is only building new campuses close to affordable housing. I myself do a "counter commute" most days. :)
We're definately heading into an economy where the 'Law of unintended consequences' will play a huge role. My company keeps opening new office buildings in low cost states for the purpose of attracting out of college kids as new hires. Instead, existing employees apply for the vast majority of the slots! Hey, why not cash out if you've won the "housing lottery." :)
I know some of the posters here like to make fun of 'rust belt states.' But we're negotiating to have the Federal government pay to construct new buildings and move employees from VA to 'economically depressed' regions. Will it happen? I think at the scale proposed its unlikely. Then again, I never expected us to be able to quietly move 3,500 employees without a single news story... Somehow we were able to move our large corporate IT structure from six states to Texas without anyone making a peep. So much for the MSM. ;)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Harriet,
Your link for same house sale
"http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dfzt5wxt_9fnff8sdt"
has valuble information. I was checking the Ashbourn townhouse which was listed for 374,xxx and wondered how much it was bought for. I found this from your above link.
- Leo
Interesting breaking news:
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, leading one of the most aggressive regulatory and legal efforts dealing with problems of the U.S. mortgage market, is near to reaching a deal with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to change property-appraisal systems in ways aimed at discouraging inflated valuations that have been partly blamed for the crisis, people familiar with the matter tell The Wall Street Journal.
From the WSJ, buried in the middle (search for Fannie):
http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB120401104559693359.html?
mod=googlenews_wsj
So much for appraisals over-inflating home prices. This has lit up the mortgage blogs. ;)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
It's no longer on the market, but it is currently listed on the REDC auction site:
http://tinyurl.com/ytrtmr
43015 Beachall
South Riding, VA 20152
Last List Price: $314,500
Prior Sale: $454,000 11/2005
Listing Date: 11/07
-30.7%
This place was bought by a flipper and originally listed 12/06 for $500,000. It's price has been steadily been lowered over the past year, with no takers and finally foreclosed on. Based on the pictures shown in the previous MLS listings, it's actually a pretty nice place inside.
Just to put things in perspective, this place was built and sold 10 years ago for $158000, and probably worth (at most) in the mid-200s today. This bubble was crazy.
Leo,
If you ever need prior sale information for Loudoun,
try
Loudoun County or
The Washington Post Recent Sales
Loudoun only keeps the last sale on its site, which is a pain because it might be the sale to the bank (if it's a foreclosure) and not the prior market sale. But the Post keeps the records from the last few prior sales.
gte, dominic,
See pages 31-32 of this PDF file from CRA-GMU. Northern VA and Southern MD show more job growth than DC, but of course they're larger areas as well.
(This one also has some interesting local housing statistics).
Neil,
Adelphia's nice new (but vacant) building was just up for auction in Coudersport, PA - 72,000 square feet for $3.5 million (the first buyer defaulted). The northeast could always use more jobs. I'm glad to hear your company is thinking about regions of the country that could use a boost.
Thanks for the heads up on the inflated appraisal news.
I was out all morning and noticed they'd changed the huge sign at the local Colwell Banker office on Route 29 near Gainesville. It's always something new and eye-rolling (last year it was "jump on in, the market's fine!". Today it said:
"Lending reform coming
Rates plummeting
Don't wait 2 long"
"I know some of the posters here like to make fun of 'rust belt states.' But we're negotiating to have the Federal government pay to construct new buildings and move employees from VA to 'economically depressed' regions."
Neil - out of curiosity, if you had to guess, what % of the people in your field would be willing to make such a move?
I ask because when I got out of law school, I used to get calls from headhunters asking me to move to some god awful place for work. They would cite the "cheap cost of living" as a reason for going, and how my salary would go so much further as reasons for going. I turned every one of them down (even one that would have given me a 10% premium on my salary to move to Milwaukee) because even if i would have been "better off" moneywise, the “quality of life" I would experience, (I know first hand that Milwaukee is awful IMHO) would be abysmal.
That said, if they offered me a huge premium (say 200 percent), I may consider it. On the other hand, no company would want to move to a place if they had to offer skilled workers a huge premium to get them to work there.
Now, if there were no other jobs for me in D.C. then this might be a different story. However, in my experience, a large percentage (maybe as much as half) of the people I know and work with absolutely adore where they live and would consider all sorts of alternatives before they would be willing to move out of the area to something they deemed less desirable. In fact, my wife and I are so beholden to our close in neighborhood, we would even take a modest pay cut if necessary to stay here. On the flip side, if someone offered me a job in say London, San Francisco, Barcelona, Dubrovnik, or some other place that I like more than D.C. and at a salary that would offer me a similar quality of life (short commute, residence in the desirable, walkable, urban area), I would move in a heartbeat.
For some, the prospect of a better job is worth making the move to less desirable areas, for others, the prospect of moving to a less desirable area makes nearly no job seen worthwhile. To each their own I guess, but it seems like my idea of what makes an area attractive is the antithesis of yours.
Speaking of south riding...
The villages model home is up for sale. A year ago it would have gone for $700K +, It had all the bells and whistles. It is in the development that I came close to purchasing. (not buying was the best decision I made, but second to marrying my wife).
Now its on the market for $534k.
Thats not the only interesting part - they are selling the model! They have only built about 1/3 of the homes in that style. Now there are occupied homes next to dirt lots and the model will be gone soon. I think they are shutting down for a while.
That cannot bode well for current owners. Since they were all purchased in 2006, early 2007, they must all be underwater now.
Speaking some more of South Riding...
The Greens have been advertised since 2005. The ground was cleared in late 2004 (it's near the main entrance, across from the gas station), but no building has started, which I guess is sign of no orders. That in itself is interesting, because it illustrates that Toll was turning away from building spec houses in 2005.
Another interesting note is the advertisements for the Amberlea models, shown here:
http://www.southriding.com/homes.shtml
Notice that that page says "starting at $478,975", but if you click on it, you'll see that the prices are really starting at $339,975 these days. Whoops!
I think at the top they sold in the mid-400s. Those homes, on Center St. and across from the school, seem to be foreclosure central, as most were sold in 2005.
CRT: "the prospect of a better job is worth making the move to less desirable areas,"
There's the financial aspect.
A choice to move and buy in the boonies 10 years ago, may have landed you in a McMansion that has now plunged in value (granted from a peak in 2005).
The alternate choice for the city and buying, say, near Lance, gave you convenience and access to services and entertainment, and a place that has not plunged in value.
On a dollar for dollar basis, a quality neighborhood, close in, won over the last 10 years.
This may not guarantee future results but between $3.30/gallon gas today, worsening traffic congestion, and whatever comes tomorrow, I'm certain that the city will continue to offer a substantial advantage.
That's lifestyle, QOL, investment, job opportunities, across the board.
"I'm certain that the city will continue to offer a substantial advantage."
I hope so KH. I think the city has achieved the "critical mass" necessary to sustain itself during the upcoming downturn and not erase all the progress made during the last 10-15 years. That said, I do think renewal will be on hold in the city for a while.
Novawatcher/Stealth4 This stuff on South Riding is seriously disturbing. I havent been out that way in years, but I remember when it was being built how it was going to be the "it" place. The prospect of upside-down owner next to upside-down owner living next to "dirt lots" in "foreclosure central" has got to be just awful.
"I do think renewal will be on hold in the city for a while. "
I suspect that may be true. That's one reason that I'm parsing my area so closely.
Since before 2005, my BH pals told me, "Don't you realize that it's a bubble?" and "Sell now."
I was fairly certain that the worse case for me in my area would be a 5-10% price fall as reflected in the actuals and assessments.
E REED AV is a bellweather, even more so that WARWICK VIL or MANSION DR. E REED and WARWICK appear to be pulling back from an instantaneous peak in 2006. MANSION AV is immune from price falls because they have not been assessed at fair market for 5 years.
I'm not certain that any north side of the street duplex sold on E REED for above $500K. (Zillow shows 600K+ prices for the new TH's on the south-east end). WARWICK has had sales above $450K and the current asking averages just over $400K.
These are the weak links.
Call it PWC, Leesburg, Sterling Park in miniature.
My points are:
Street-by-street conditions matter (Lance says this)
Value (solid value, perceived value, trendiness) counts.
Easy commute, cheap commute, access to jobs and services weigh in.
Telecommuting is over valued. The real TC jobs are going to India and Europe. The jobs that are sticking depend on face time, lab time, collaboration at the desk, swinging by the boss's office or the client where the client is a Federal procurement office, court officer, or elected official.
That said, there appears to be a recession brewing with a mean bit of inflation mixed in.
I might shelve the idea of looking for a "steal" in the boonies. I'll discuss this with my people this weekend.
If so, then Harriet's blog has helped me reach a decision.
This has value.
I just looked, to see how bad it is in South Riding, and there is only 1 foreclosure in the entire area, and its under contract.
I then just searched for properties and found that the majority of lower priced homes ( i.e. townhomes under 425k ) were under contract.
CRT: Well, I guess it depends on where you live in SR. Some of those neighborhoods are 12+ years old, so except for the odd house here and there, they aren't really affected. For example, if you compare a block of townhouses built in 2000 to one built in 2005, it's night and day.
Not only are the older ones bigger, but many of their residents bought pre-peak (e.g 2000-2003). In contrast, the ones built in 2005 not only were bought at the peak, but are actually condos (rather than fee-simple), adding the insult of condo fees to the mix. It's those neighborhoods that were built in the last 3 years that are having big problems, whether it be large SFHs or townhouse condos. Go a couple of blocks over, and it's no worse than McLean.
Doug,
On MLS, there are several 'bank-owned' properties for sale in South Riding.
Prices have been plummiting there over the past 9 months.
Well I just ran a search and only 1 came up. Maybe the ones you are talking about are classified differently.
If the prices are plummeting they have a long way to go. With 2500 sq ft new SFHs starting in the high 5's with no options, and townhomes selling for 400k+ - they should fall at least 25% before they are even reasonably fairly priced.
Out there, where land is cheap and cows roam, SFHs should start around 300k with no options, and townhomes should be around 200k. Nicely equipped versions should add about 25% to that price.
Regarding the cnn.com article that began this thread, DC proper has always had high unemployment relative to the surrounding areas (NoVA and MD counties nearby). A large number of residents in DC haven't finished school, can't afford transportation to employers not near a metro stop, etc. A state-by-state comparison is misleading because DC is really a city being compared with states that have a mix of cities, towns and rural areas. My guess is that if you compared only cities proper, and not metropolitan areas or states, DC would be about average or maybe better than average.
Doug:
Here is a long list from the MLS of townhouses in South Riding for $300-$400k.
http://tinyurl.com/2l32cv
Heck, here's one for $259k (LO6603210).
Here's another for $285k (LO6534627)
And here's a bunch of foreclosures:
http://tinyurl.com/3afl9d
In other words, there are no townhomes selling for $400k+. Remember: listed != selling.
LO6659875
LO6633047
Both new townhomes above 400k under contract.
LO6624184 - 399k Under contract
Oh, those listings of yours - almost all are in Chantilly not South Riding. They may be geographically close, but like I said, I did a search on South Riding and those were my results.
Doug:
Hope, I don't come off as testy, but South Riding is so new, that it doesn't show up on some computer systems, and mail sent there is sometimes addressed as "Chantilly" instead. I know folks who have had problems with moving companies that could not find their place on the system. South Riding is effectively from the FFX borded to Gum Springs, and Rt50 to Braddock.
For example, this place is smack dab in the middle of South Riding (and they pay SR HOA fees), yet if you look at this MLS listing, the mailing address says Chantilly. Yet, the "Community" is listed as South Riding:
http://www.franklymls.com/LO6633581.html
And, this place is one block from the South Riding Town Hall (google map).
http://tinyurl.com/325whc
And, if you look at the tinyurl MLS entry (http://tinyurl.com/2l32cv), all of those say "South Riding".
You may have found 2 that are over $400k and are under contract (they look like larger 4br 2cg models), but if you look at that MLS page, there are nearly 80 listings that are under $400k. These are places that would have sold for $100k more 2 years ago.
Well you are wrong, certain zips show up as South Riding and others show up as Chantilly.
Its the same thing as Fairfax and Centreville.
While you might like to group them together, the MLS and the post office do not.
Im not arguing that there are price drops, Im just saying that you are grouping areas together that the MLS and the post office do not, and you should be more specific with regards to your posts because those are not the same place.
Its like you are trying to group Centreville with Fairfax city - and use that to say Fairfax city is dropping more rapidly when 95% of the depreciation you are calculating is in Centreville. You just cant do that, its essentially lying.
How am I wrong? Those places on the MLS, that you said are in Chantilly, are in South Riding proper. Please show me one that was not in South Riding:
http://www.franklymls.com/default.aspx?mode=Realtor&high=400000&searchtext=south+riding
Im saying that zip code boundary defines what is South Riding and what is Chantilly.
When I lived in Herndon, half of my block was Loudoun county ( Sterling ) and the other half was Fairfax county, its the same thing.
Just because they are close together does not mean they are the same zip, or county or state for that matter.
If the zip says Chantilly its not South Riding and vica versa.
In my book, if you pay HOA fees to South Riding Proprietary, then you are in South Riding. Like I said, it's very common for homes in South Riding to receive mail addressed to either Chantilly or to South Riding. That's because some mailing databases have not been updated and still label the area as Chantilly.
If you are going to use zip code boundaries, then not all areas in 20152 are technically in South Riding, but it's close enough
Either way you define it, there are still 80-something townhomes in South Riding that are listing for < $400k, and in some instances, < $300k.
Actually there are 12, I just looked.
The rest are in Chantilly.
And 3 of those 12 are under contract.
So 9 available.
I just found 35 3br+ for < $400k on homesdatabase.com:
http://tinyurl.com/yov339
And yes 35 out of those 41 listed are in South Riding.
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