From the Washington Examiner:
"Real estate assessments for Arlington County’s single-family homes dropped an average of 1.25 percent for 2008, officials said last week, but numbers show the county’s real estate picture is all about location.Read the article for neighborhood info.
“The changes that have occurred in the real estate market many times are isolated to neighborhoods, types of properties and even price categories,” said Thomas Rice, the county’s director of real estate assessments. “We’re seeing the downward shift with properties at the lowest end of the price spectrum.”
The northern tip of the county was the only area to see values increase, according to 2008 figures."
17 comments:
Mine went up - about 35k. Price you pay to live in North Arlington.
None of mine went up. The ones in Clarendon stayed the same. My older places in Rosslyn dropped 10% and my house in Ashton Heights dropped less than $1000.
The real point here is that where once people were talking about "inside the beltway" being safe they are now restricted to talking about the "northern tip" of Arlington...
Anyone that thinks the "northern tip" of Arlington simply plays by different rules than the rest of the region simply isn't being realistic.
Well I guess the tax appraisers are "not being realistic" about my property.
I think its because 2 comparable homes, less than 1mi away, sold late 2007 ( August and October ) for considerably more than mine was appraised at ( 250 and 300k more ).
I look forward to the day that my property value decreases so I can pay less tax. I'm never selling, our children will inherit this home.
"I look forward to the day that my property value decreases so I can pay less tax. I'm never selling, our children will inherit this home."
Many here miss that point. My neighbors say similar things,
"They'll carry me out feet first."
"Yes, I could sell and walk away with 3/4 million but I'd owe taxes, and where would I go?"
Once you own a house, as long as you can make the payments, the issue is the property tax. The longer you own, the more taxes overshadow everything else.
There are houses within a few blocks that sold last year for 30% over their Feb 2007 assessment.
That may raise assessments and taxes by a significant amount.
But then, the belief here is that
assessments are not important.
leroy,
You're right again. Sales are slowing in N. Arlington and Alexandria City, which is a leading indicator of price declines. But we know that sellers won't lower prices unless forced to. Accordingly, factors that will influence price declines include: (1) the extent of layoffs in the upcoming recession; and (2) the extent to which owners in the "nice" areas will be forced to capitulate to lower demand because they can't afford the mortgage and can't wait the market out by renting their home with positive cash flow.
kh,
"But then, the belief here is that assessments are not important."
Your comment regarding assessments is a bit misleading. Everybody here would agree that assessments are relevant for the purpose of determining tax liability and carrying costs. In a volitile market, however, assessments are of questionable relevance for the purpose of determining current market value.
I just this month purchased a home in one of North Arlington's only vintage townhouse neighborhoods. It's south of Lee Highway and so out of the Examiner article's range for "northern tip".
My neighborhood's assessments generally dropped a considerable amount. Mine dropped 3.7%, consistent with most units. Some others, without rhyme or reason that I can find, increased up to 2.5%.
Also peculiar is that the *improvement* values were what changed on all the units here. You'd think if demand were the issue, the land prices would shift, not the improvement values. Labor costs (for *constructing* the improvement) are near-comparable to what they were a year ago.
I can say, though, that when we had an appraisal ordered for this place a few weeks ago, comps were nearly nonexistent, so it's pretty difficult to assign a real value. The appraiser started pulling in townhomes from *south* Arlington to get numbers from the past six months.
MarketWatch takes:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/annual-home-price-decline-douses-long-held/story.aspx?guid=%7BB9309D16%2D6ECB%2D47EC%2DB65E%2D7EBD43EE4D15%7D
&
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/existing-home-sales-fall-22-489/story.aspx?guid=%7B5A97DE86%2DD04F%2D4822%2D9D0C%2D84F98D35C29C%7D
"In a volatile market, however, assessments are of questionable relevance for the purpose of determining current market value."
For most who own, the assessment which determines taxes, is what counts. In my area, I'd guess that more than 90% are owners. Houses do not come on the market that often.
Most HH are concerned about their assessment/taxes and not how much they can hold up a BH across the bargaining table.
There's an underlying theme in this blog that HH are being thick headed, they should get with the program, and sell their places for 2002 prices.
kh, your neighbors, unless they troll blogs like this such as you do, are not "HH" or "housing bulls." They are merely people who bought houses quite some time ago. Just stop with that nonsense.
kh, I'm waiting for 1997 prices
"kh, your neighbors, unless they troll blogs like this such as you do, are not "HH" or "housing bulls." They are merely people who bought houses quite some time ago. Just stop with that nonsense."
Good point...
"There's an underlying theme in this blog that HH are being thick headed, they should get with the program, and sell their places for 2002 prices."
I think for many areas and homes, thats probably correct. 2002 prices for the garbage, the stuff way out, and the foreclosures.
But if you have a nice home in a great location with nothing wrong with it, you can still get a good price even in todays market. I know because I follow the listings and plenty of homes are still going under contract for mid 2005 prices. One just closed near me, on the 22nd.
"kh, your neighbors, unless they troll blogs like this such as you do, are not "HH" or "housing bulls." They are merely people who bought houses quite some time ago. Just stop with that nonsense."
That's exactly my point. Thanks.
No one who owns, cares about the religion of the Bubble. Shiller has built a following who are clinging to the idea that, any day now, prices of prime properties will plunge in value, and the followers of the bubble will cash in, receive their blessing, so to speak.
I call them HH because that is the terminology in this blog. I follow this chat because I'm still holding out hope for an assessment pullback that will save me a few thousand dollars per year.
I might buy a place if our informal investment group can find the right property.
The PWC assessments are out and show less than a 10% drop on a couple places that I checked out.
Sorry that reality does not match the "teachings", perhaps next year. That's 2009, 4 years post bubble.
KH--
Where did you check PWC assessments? I checked the website, but they are not posted there yet. Is there some other way to see them?
Orange line SHFs in Arlington continue to show an increase in some homes, check out 1711 N. Harvard, sold for 1.325MM in March 06 and just closed at 1.4MM
"Where did you check PWC assessments? I checked the website, but they are not posted there yet. Is there some other way to see them?"
I've been tracking a couple places and saw that one, a $550K SFH had only fallen about $45K, the other was down even less.
I may have misread 2007 as 2008, thinking that it was the new number. I still can't get used to the idea that the Jan/Feb 2008 numbers refer to 2007's assessment change.
If the places I'm watching fall even more, I will let people know.
Also Alexandria publishes in Mid-Feb. That'll be interesting.
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