9419 LAFAYETTE AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $164,900
Prior Sale: $442,000 7/22/2005
Listing Date: 01/14/08
-62.7%
8168 COMMUNITY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $105,000
Prior Sale: $270,000 10/7/2005
Listing Date: 01/14/08
-61.1%
8004 COMMUNITY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $119,900
Prior Sale: $282,900 6/20/2006
Listing Date: 01/16/08
-57.6%
4801 KIRKDALE DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $455,000 6/26/2006
Listing Date: 01/17/08
-56.1%
2924 BUELL CT
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $99,900
Prior Sale: $225,000 5/19/2005
Listing Date: 01/18/08
-55.6%
(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Prince William County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 7:58 AM
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23 comments:
How in the hell did someone buy this house for over 400 k?
http://www.franklymls.com/PW6633648.html
I got to find this guy and sell him some magic beans.
Not surprised Manassas and PW are tanking. Prices were totally our of line and the bulk of the purchasers were not in economically sustainable jobs. Carzy.
Steve,
Magic beans all around!
(1) The County has it assessed for $355,100;
(2) The lenders fell all over themselves to lend 100% or more of asking prices . . .
Do you guys have any advice for convincing people their houses are actually worth a fraction of what they are asking/are assessed? Specific to Manassas. Say it is either an original owner from 30 years ago or someone who purchased right before the bubble. What hard data would you suggest bringing to them? Our favorite neighborhood in Manassas has not had a single house sell for more than a year, so there are no comparable sales, and even if there were, values are, obviously, still on their way down. Or is it hopeless, and no amount of reasoning will make the sellers see our offers as anything other than us robbing them blind? And in general, what year's prices do you consider "real" prices for Manassas/PWC? When did prices and assessments lose any grip on reality?
Merrill Lynch says U.S. nationwide home prices may fall 30%:
http://tinyurl.com/2y8rjq
Tabitha-
We'll have to have one more flopped "Spring" market to slam sellers in the face with the cold hard reality that they aren't going to get their price.
I'm (probably) older than you & have been through a few of these RE cycles. It is a waiting game. I know you are tired of waiting, as am I.
But, no one is more tired of waiting than these current sellers. They are angry that their house isn't moving, for that matter, no one is even looking at it! They sure don't want to hear about lowering it more or seeing your lowball offer.
HOWEVER - do your homework- have your Agent find out which homes are one of the "Famous 4 D's" of Real Estate!
1) Desperate - HAVE to sell, job relocation, REO, Empty house!
2) Divorcing - you can really steal a deal here, the longer this one is on the market, the more willing they are to dump it, along with the marriage (I got a sweet deal in 2002 when we moved here (and everyone said we couldn't lowball in this market!!) - 80K less than what they wanted. They refused our offer at first, but came back a Month later & asked us to re-bid. We said the Original offer still stands & they took it!!)
3) Dirty - fixer uppers can always be lowballed
4) Dead - owner is deceased & the kids don't want to mess with the house, just want their $$$ out of it!
Get an Agent that doesn't care if he hacks off the Sellers Agent & is agressive. In 6 more Months this will be the norm!!
I just can't get over those drops! And still not moving!
Of course, who wants to move into a developing slum.
60% declines...I wouldn't have dreamt that.
That Manassass listing would be very tempting to me - even if it is a tiny little rancher, it's brick, built in the 60s, so decent build quality, backs onto a park, and has pretty decent access to 66 - I'd consider it for sure at the current price.
Most of these listings are for dumps in certain sections of Manassas.
Remember this house is also in Manassas
http://www.homedatabase.com/janethomesales/PW6603929
I have not been looking closely at the run-down neighborhoods in Manassas, but even nice neighborhoods are seeing dramatic drops. Here are a few examples from Johnson Estates:
9570 BASILWOOD DR
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $299,000
last paid $570,000 3/5/2007
9588 BASILWOOD DR
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $298,800
last paid $450,000 10/23/2006
9530 BASILWOOD DR
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $369,900
last paid $564,000 09/14/2005
9544 CLEMATIS ST
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $420,000
last paid $560,000 06/17/2005
9543 CLEMATIS ST
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $329,000
last paid $465,000 11/18/2005
There are a few houses asking in the $500s still, but look at how long most of these places have been on the market. If I did not have to herd my kids down to the basement to clean up right now, I could show some other fine neighborhoods that are in a similar bind. Some of the brand new neighborhoods are suffering the most, from what I can tell--empty lots competing with empty houses competing with houses that will soon be empty...and I still ask, over and over, who, in God's name, thought this McMansion was worth over $700K, now asking $400K? Who, pray tell, thought this 20year old ranch house was worth almost $600K? What is going to happen to all that fake money?
tabitha,
Put yourself in their spot. They probably owe more than the house is worth. Imagine having to go to closing and owing money. It's their fault, but there is plenty of blame to go around.
Check out the PWC assesment site and find out what they paid.
http://www4.pwcgov.org/realestate/LandRover.asp
Check out Victory lakes in Bristow, that's where I live and I you can get a brand new house for around 500k and some 2 year old ones for 450 k. Wait another year and I'm sure it will be down to 400k.
Thank you, Steve. The PWC and City of Manassas assessment sites have excellent data. I am almost incredulous that such extensive information is available for public view. Wasn't it once hard to get the sale history for a house?
Victory Lakes has some of the prettiest houses I have seen, and it seems to be a friendly place--also relatively untouched by the foreclosure epidemic. Several houses have the one special feature I crave--a real, usable attic. It is a little far from the VRE, though, and still out of our price range...though I agree that within a year, they will have come down enough.
My heart truly does go out to the "upside down" people. We were once in that position, in Indiana, but for a much smaller dollar amount than most here. What do people do, when they do not go bankrupt? Take out a loan, so they essentially pay a mortgage for a house they no longer live in? Heaven help them. That would drive me insane.
And that is why I am completely obsessed with taking every precaution to not become one of them.
Here are some houses in Muse Hill, a little neighborhood close to Old Town:
10468 GENNA LN
MANASSAS, VA 20112
asking $389,900
last sale 06/30/2006 $529,000
10469 GENNA LN
MANASSAS, VA 20112
asking $374,950
last sale $195,285 8/30/1999
(but listed as "short sale," and mentions seller has already moved into a new house--refinance?)
10465 GENNA LN
MANASSAS, VA 20112
asking $455,000
last sale 09/20/2005 $510,000
10446 GENNA LN
MANASSAS, VA 20112
asking $449,900
last sale 05/06/2005 $540,000
These houses have all been vacant for a long, long time...
These are found in a more modest side of what is still pretty much a very good neighborhood:
9540 HARVEST PL
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $337,900
last sale 10/26/2006 $475,000
9539 HARVEST PL
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $424,999
8/14/1984 $122,545 (original owners)
10052 FIELD CT
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $300,000
last sale 5/6/2005 $450,000
10057 FIELD CT
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $399,900
last sale 10/4/2005 $579,000
(I simply cannot believe that old price.)
10101 HOLLAND CT
MANASSAS, VA 20110
asking $399,900
last sale 3/22/2005 $485,000
Again, the drops are not as significant, but nothing is selling.
If you look at the new trustee sale listings in the Wash Post any given day, and you read the names for Manassas and Woodbridge, they are almost universally Latino surnames. These houses are no exception. I remember before the Holland Court house was foreclosed upon, and the family was still trying to sell it, in the listing's pictures, there were cute little kids running around...how did this happen on such a huge scale? So much so, that in Manassas Park, for the month of December, there was a 40% YOY drop in sale prices? And that is just for the houses that actually managed to sell.
For 10057 Field Court, the previous owner walked away with about $400,000 profit. Just for living in his house. That's wrong, I'm sorry.
tabitha said:
"For 10057 Field Court, the previous owner walked away with about $400,000 profit. Just for living in his house. That's wrong, I'm sorry."
I find that comment interesting. You (or at least BHs in general) think it's okay for a person's home to sell for a lot less than they paid for it ... but when it sells for a lot more than they paid for it, then it is "wrong".
Sorry, but I guess I believe in "capitalism" ... When people buy, they make a commitment in their house, neighborhood, community, town, county, country, and world that people who rent don't.
They get that "vested" interest in their house, neighborhood, community, town, county, country, and world. Since they've made the commitment and sacrifice necessary to believe in their house, neighborhood, community, town, county, country, and world, they get the right to make that "profit" ... or "loss". They've stepped up to the plate ...
"I find that comment interesting. You (or at least BHs in general) think it's okay for a person's home to sell for a lot less than they paid for it ... but when it sells for a lot more than they paid for it, then it is "wrong"."
This isn't what we have been saying.
"Sorry, but I guess I believe in "capitalism" ... When people buy, they make a commitment in their house, neighborhood, community, town, county, country, and world that people who rent don't."
That isn't capitalism.
"They get that "vested" interest in their house, neighborhood, community, town, county, country, and world. Since they've made the commitment and sacrifice necessary to believe in their house, neighborhood, community, town, county, country, and world, they get the right to make that "profit" ... or "loss". They've stepped up to the plate ..."
This is of course just stupid. You sound like a car salesman...
"What you need to remember is that people are going to look at you in this car. What do you want them to see when they do? What does your car say about what kind of person you are? This baby is going to tell people what they want to hear. It is going to tell them what YOU want them to hear."
etc etc...
Housing prices never should have shot up in the first place. They are now returning to the levels they should never have left.
Anyone that missed the boat selling during the brief anomaly is out of luck.
Historically housing tracks inflation. The people who think they "deserve" a massive return on a house they have only held a few years have no idea what is going on.
I agree with Lance, people have messed up values when they take joy in the family who forecloses but get angry with the family who makes money.
Stand up in church and tell everyone how you feel, maybe they will set you strait.
Tabitha, perhaps the people in your desired neighborhood know they have something desirable in their home and thats why they are not budging on price? Is the VRE being close the reason maybe? I dont know, but until somebody sells cheap you may have a hard time getting in there, maybe try that Victory Lakes place if its that nice. If they are listing at 450k they will surely consider 400k or so.
Lance, you lost my point. It IS wrong for people to have to sell their house for a great deal less than they paid for it. It IS wrong for people to walk away with an enormous amount of profit because of a quirk of fate and a duped/gullible buyer.
I am not a student of economics, and you may correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that capitalism requires some virtues, such as honesty. In the case of 10057 Field Court, a Mr. Cruz bought a cute little house in a solid working class neighborhood for $575,000--over $100,000 more than people were paying for similar houses in the neighborhood at the time, which was close to the peak of inflated prices. He paid THREE times as much as the previous owner. I have seen this over and over and over again in Manassas. Look at a given neighborhood in 2005 or 2006. Look at the houses going for the highest prices, for no apparent good reason. It is always, exclusively, a Latino surname.
Your used-car-salesman pitch dehumanizes these people. I am becoming convinced the current situation is due to a perfect storm of disconnected but systemic dishonesty on the part of many savvy players. But this is not--or should not be--a game where the smartest win.
Sorry for the sentimentalism, but I keep thinking of my favorite movie, It's a Wonderful Life, when George Baily defends the Savings and Loan from Mr. Potter, who says people should wait to buy their way out of his slums. George says "Wait? Wait for what? Til they are old and broken down?" Decent, hardworking people of all social strata are being hurt by this situation. So I do find it abhorrent, on both sides of the purchase, when people are taken advantage of, and when people give into the temptations of greed and envy.
PS What is a "BH"?
Doug, please note that the neighborhood in which we want to live, which is where we currently rent, is indeed close to the VRE, and has a diversity of houses owned almost exclusively by original owners. I am not hoping to manipulate, dupe, or coerce any of them into selling to me for an artificially low price. I am, however, hoping that someone will realize that their house is not worth three or four times what they paid for it 20 years ago, which is where the asking prices are for the moment.
There are two 2000 sqft houses asking just above and just under $600K, because the poor owners bought them in 2005. But the rest of the houses for sale, in the $600Ks, were purchased a long time ago for a fraction of that. I understand these houses have been peoples' homes for all this time, and they have lovingly cared for them, AND they have watched their tax assessments soar into the $800Ks, so they feel justified. But their neighborhood is also surrounded by less solid neighborhoods, and is right next to a very large jail that opens its drunk tank every morning.
Perhaps the owners will never let go of their dream to sell for a stupendous profit. Perhaps that will extend our renting, or perhaps we will go to another fine neighborhood. But we will not place ourselves into a house at a price we consider inflated just because the seller has hopeful and somewhat justified expectations. The prices we are finding fair, according to our research, would still afford the sellers an excellent profit, and I do not begrudge people such good fortune. I do get upset when dishonesty, manipulation, and greed get in the way of famililes living the American dream of a place to call home.
Wow thats crazy.
Move to Arlington, you can get a 2000 square foot house for 600k and you could walk to metro instead of VRE.
A 2000 sq foot house in Manassas should be around 200k, maybe 250k if its near VRE.
I figured with 6 kids you would want 3500 sq/ft.
Tabitha,
Doug has a good point. I've told some people here about prices further "in" and they don't believe me. I shared an anecdote on this blog about a local Rent-a-Car employee who in 2005 was convinced his two-story colonial tract home in Culpeper County would be worth a cool million very soon. I get the feeling that sellers are comparing their asking prices to what others got *locally* and forgetting about massive competition in communities much further into the urban NoVA area. There have been plenty of properties just sitting for sale for two years now in PW and Fauquier counties.
I completely understand your frustration. Prices in the exurbs aren't following the rules at this point, that they should offer more value than prices further "in". The way I see it is that they're "all over the map" as you're also finding. It doesn't instill much confidence when you're a buyer.
Oops, Doug, I was unclear. The first two (small) houses I mentioned were the ones purchased recently--the other houses, which are also asking in the $600Ks w/ original owners, are much larger, between 3000-5000sqft. We would like to buy a house our grandchildren can come to, so yes, we would like the most space for our money.
But that is just it--two little old houses, one a rancher and one a small colonial on a main road with a tiny kitchen from 1969, are asking just over and just under $600K. Then, spacious, gracious older homes on the same block are asking in the $600Ks, too. All this an HOUR by train from D.C. The first two sellers are trying to avoid bringing money to the table. The latter sellers are trying to "not give their houses away." The city is telling all of them that their houses are worth $200,000+ more than they are asking. And we are sitting here, wondering how everyone managed to lose their grip on reality at the same time.
From what I can tell, just five years ago, these houses would have been from around $200K for the small ones to around $300K-$400K for the big ones. And I think that is somewhat reasonable. But my concern is that the owners would, you know, see a cold day in hell before agreeing with me.
A new listing. $500K for a 3/1 doublewide on an acre on a double-lane road outside of Warrenton. It's listed with an unrecognizable firm.
Even the County has its fair market value at $268K, and those were somewhat inflated.
Maybe the MLS needs the MLS police. :-)
Harriet, you impress me. Reminds me of this listing, for an 1895 farmhouse with no driveway right on a two-lane road:
10608 LAKE JACKSON DR
MANASSAS, VA 20111
asking $499,999
2007 assessed value $284,100
At least this seller can say he's "only minutes from the VRE."
Here is another new neighborhood in Manassas, Mayfield Trace, that is only partially built:
9581 Mountwood
asking $479,500 (REO)
10/19/2005 $724,900
8/16/2005 $611,606
9546 Mountwood
asking $399,900
10/17/2005 $562,100
9533 Mountwood
asking $399,000
11/29/2007 $561,347
2/1/2006 $656,500
9525 Mountwood
asking $429,900
2/18/2007 $715,000
11/20/2006 $10
1/23/2006 $10
11/18/2005 $690,600
9509 Mountwood
asking $477,900 (REO)
9/7/2007 $593,403
11/27/2006 $715,000
12/1/2005 $716,100
9495 Mountwood
asking $479,000
1/3/2007 $1,000
12/28/2005 $659,350
9500 Mountwood
asking $525,000
12/22/2005 $694,130
Most of these homes have unfinished basements and small lots. Some are not listed as REO, but seem to be.
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