Prince William County -- On the Market

1312 D ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $167,900
Prior Sale: $430,000 9/15/2005
Listing Date: 12/24/07
-61.0%

9702 KING GEORGE DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $199,000
Prior Sale: $470,000 6/29/2006
Listing Date: 12/28/07
-57.7%

7979 DEWARD CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $226,500
Prior Sale: $495,000 12/12/2006
Listing Date: 12/28/07
-54.2%

9926 HENRICO ST
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $194,700
Prior Sale: $423,000 9/06/2005
Listing Date: 12/30/07
-54.0%

1915 HALIFAX RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $209,900
Prior Sale: $425,000 9/29/2005
Listing Date: 12/27/07
-50.6%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Going Up -- Grantor's Taxes in N.Va.

"Home sellers in Northern Virginia will face an added expense next month: a fivefold increase in the grantor's tax.

The grantor's tax is a Virginia-wide levy on home sellers at closing, although builders generally write their contracts to make the tax the buyer's responsibility.

Currently the tax is 10 cents per $100 of either the property's assessed value or its selling price, usually the latter. That means that on a $500,000 house, the tax has been a relatively modest $500.

On Jan. 1, however, the grantor's tax is slated to increase to 50 cents per $100 -- but only in Northern Virginia. On a $500,000 home, that will be $2,500."

Local Financial Sector Tightens Belt

From the Washington Post:

"The Washington region's financial sector reflects the industry nationwide, with stock prices dropping, companies incurring losses from sour mortgages and private-equity investors pulling back on takeovers because of tighter lending".
...
"'The economy has slowed, but I don't expect a recession,' said Albert L. Lord, chief executive of Reston student-lending giant Sallie Mae. 'The credit markets tighten up from time to time. When they return to normal or something near normal, things will get better. I would have to go back to 1998 to recall anything quite of this magnitude.'"

Some local fallout:

Chevy Chase Bank of Bethesda laid off 300 employees;

McLean-based Capital One Financial sold its mortgage arm, eliminated 1,900 jobs and warned of hundreds of millions of dollars of losses in 2008;

Fieldstone Mortgage of Columbia filed for bankruptcy protection;

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey of Arlington, the region's largest investment bank, lost $2.5 billion of market value at its publicly held FBR Group;

The share prices of several local banks declined. Virginia Commerce Bank, which a year ago was trading at nearly three times book value, now trades at less than two times book value;

Specialty lenders such as CapitalSource, Allied Capital and American Capital Strategies, all of which lend to small- and mid-size companies, have lost market value.

Arlington County -- On the Market

1501 GEORGE MASON DR #22
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $164,900
Prior Sale: $284,900 11/10/2005
Listing Date: 12/20/07
-42.1%

3627 FOUR MILE RUN DR
ARLINGTON, VA 22206
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $395,000 4/11/2006
Listing Date: 12/22/07
-36.7%

4055 COLUMBIA PIKE
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $500,000
Prior Sale: $720,000 03/02/2007
Listing Date: 12/11/07
-30.6%

2008 QUEBEC ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $395,000
Prior Sale: $560,000 10/31/2006
Listing Date: 12/07/07
-29.5%

5565 COLUMBIA PIKE #315
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $206,000
Prior Sale: $290,000 4/17/2006
Listing Date: 12/04/07
-29.0%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Loudoun County -- On the Market

314 DARTMOUTH DR E #204
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $140,000
Prior Sale: $286,900 9/20/2005
Listing Date: 12/20/07
-51.2%

126 HAYLOFT CIR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $330,000 7/20/2005
Listing Date: 12/14/07
-48.5%

400 HUMMER CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $259,900
Prior Sale: $485,000 11/15/2005
Listing Date: 12/20/07
-46.4%

511 BRETHOUR CT #36
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $169,000
Prior Sale: $295,200 05/20/2005
Listing Date: 12/25/07
-42.8%

317 NANSEMOND ST SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $209,000
Prior Sale: $360,000 01/11/2006
Listing Date: 12/20/07
-41.9%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

A Sign of the Times

I noticed a humorous article in the Fauquier Times-Democrat about a perma-sign at the Suffield Meadows 55+ community near Warrenton. It's written by Julie Emery, a real estate agent who blogs for the paper and also separately at The Piedmont Real Estate Blog:

"By now surely everyone has seen this sign. I suppose it's a sign of the times but it's become a joke around our house. As we approach the Suffield Meadows development the questions begin. 'How many do you think they have left?' 'Do you think there's still time to get one?'

There have been three of these things left for so long I'm not sure I can remember back that far! Really they ought to change the sign to read 'Yup! Still got those three!'"

Broadbased, Record Price Declines in October

From Bloomberg:

"Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in October by the most in at least six years, a private survey showed today.

Property values fell 6.1 percent from October 2006, more than forecast, after dropping 4.9 percent in September, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. The decrease was the biggest since the group started keeping year-over-year records in 2001. The index has fallen every month this year."

Here's the S&P/Case-Shiller report (PDF file). The Washington, D.C. metropolitan area shows a 1-year change of -7%.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Fairfax County -- On the Market

2937 GRAHAM RD
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $524,900 08/25/2005
Listing Date: 12/19/07
-46.7%

8429 LEAF RD
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $485,000 03/13/2006
Listing Date: 12/23/07
-42.3%

751 HICKORY CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $325,900
Prior Sale: $559,000 11/22/2005
Listing Date: 12/19/07
-41.7%

9556 INVERARY CT
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $207,000
Prior Sale: $334,000 08/18/2005
Listing Date: 12/19/07
-38.0%

6284C ROSE HILL CT #C
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $155,000
Prior Sale: $246,000 07/27/2005
Listing Date: 12/12/07
-37.0%


(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Northern Virginia Mortgage Fraud

Here it comes, the tip of the iceberg . . .

From the Washington Post:

The FBI this month launched a mortgage fraud task force, gathering federal prosecutors and law enforcement officials from Prince William, Loudoun and Fairfax counties to map out a strategy to tackle the issue region-wide. One of the federal investigations is centered on Rippon Landing, according to Steve Durst, a U.S. Postal Inspection Service spokesman for the D.C. division, whose agency investigates mortgage fraud because it involves use of the mail. Durst declined to elaborate.
. . .
According to land and real estate records, Zak Ahmadzada, a mortgage broker with American Affordable Homes in McLean, and Khalid Mirza, a real estate agent with Re/Max Champions in McLean, were involved in many of the transactions.

Land records show that Ahmadzada bought three townhouses in the Villages at Rippon Landing in 2006 and 2007 for prices ranging from $418,550 to $439,615. He sold two of them months later for $570,000 and a third for $585,000. Some investors said Ahmadzada arranged for buyers' loans for several townhouses at the higher prices, with no down payments and 100 percent financing.
. . .
Another investor, Wayne A. Lee, bought four townhouses in the subdivision in late 2006 for $570,000 and a fifth for $580,000. Two of those properties were purchased from Zak Ahmadzada, who paid $418,550 and $426,700 just months before, according to land records.

Today, three of Lee's homes are in foreclosure and listed for sale for less than $350,000. Lee declined comment Friday on the advice of his lawyer.

When researching same-house sales, if I see an above-market price that followed a prior sale within months, I check the tax assessment for some extra help. I usually post the earlier sale which was more in line with comps.

Prince William County -- On the Market

7730 AMHERST DR
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $149,900
Prior Sale: $405,000 9/26/2005
Listing Date: 12/12/07
-63.0%

9518 LOMOND DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $170,000
Prior Sale: $456,000 8/17/2006
Listing Date: 12/11/07
-62.7%

912 HOPTON RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $178,500
Prior Sale: $365,000 6/29/2006
Listing Date: 12/12/07
-51.1%

1303 OREGON AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $185,000
Prior Sale: $364,000 5/2/2006
Listing Date: 12/14/07
-49.2%

14322 BIRCHDALE AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $185,000
Prior Sale: $362,000 4/27/2006
Listing Date: 12/13/07
-48.9%

1482 ARKANSAS CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $179,900
Prior Sale: $350,000 8/02/2005
Listing Date: 12/10/07
-48.6%

9611 NORFOLK ST
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $224,900
Prior Sale: $430,000 7/19/2005
Listing Date: 12/12/07
-47.7%


(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Inventory and Price Reductions

	Active		Reduced	Percentage
12/15/2007
Arlington	856		365	43%
Alexandria	789		376	48%
Falls Church	54		27	50%
Fairfax	7,008		3,580	51%
Fairfax City	165		78	47%
Loudoun	3,336		1,659	50%
Prince William	5,468		2,901	53%
Fauquier	932		411	44%
Stafford	1,527		763	50%
Warren	857		351	41%
11/15/2007
Arlington	969		423	44%
Alexandria	853		416	49%
Fairfax	7,560		3,852	51%
Loudoun	3,534		1,791	51%
Prince William	5,560		2,912	52%
Fauquier	979		418	43%
Stafford	1,538		772	50%
Warren	896		358	40%
10/15/2007
Arlington	1,025		407	40%
Alexandria	918		416	45%
Fairfax	8,022		3,924	49%
Loudoun	3,683		1,769	48%
Prince William	5,532		2,884	52%
Fauquier	995		435	44%
Stafford	1,603		771	48%
Warren	916		373	41%
9/17/2007
Arlington	991		328	33%
Alexandria	886		389	44%
Fairfax	8,043		3,783	47%
Loudoun	3,688		1,776	48%
Prince William	5,591		2,851	51%
Fauquier	994		466	47%
Stafford	1,652		814	49%
Warren	941		379	40%
8/15/2007
Arlington	925		340	37%
Alexandria	843		375	44%
Fairfax	7,878		3,622	46%
Loudoun	3,643		1,695	47%
Prince William	5,575		2,827	51%
Fauquier	1,008		473	47%
Stafford	1,725		842	49%
Warren	936		337	36%

Source: ZipRealty

Loudoun County -- On the Market

33 MONARCH DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $165,000
Prior Sale: $299,000 11/30/2005
Listing Date: 12/10/07
-44.8%

1305 BEECH RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $303,500
Prior Sale: $545,000 04/04/2006
Listing Date: 12/09/07
-44.3%

303 LAUREL AVE E
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $267,500
Prior Sale: $476,900 09/20/2005
Listing Date: 12/09/07
-43.9%

901 STAUNTON AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $279,000
Prior Sale: $475,000 09/05/2006
Listing Date: 12/03/07
-41.3%

108 HARVEST LN
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $269,900
Prior Sale: $445,000 03/22/2006
Listing Date: 12/06/07
-39.3%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Fairfax County -- On the Market

3857 HAVENWOOD PL #69A
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $169,000
Prior Sale: $267,000 09/21/2007
Listing Date: 12/09/07
-36.7%

3505 ELLERY CIR
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22041
List Price: $449,900
Prior Sale: $698,935 12/27/2005
Listing Date: 12/07/07
-35.6%

9098 PURVIS DR
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $500,000
Prior Sale: $742,022 12/21/2005
Listing Date: 12/05/07
-32.6%

5607 LIERMAN CIR
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $569,900
Prior Sale: $813,745 09/27/2005
Listing Date: 12/05/07
-30.0%

2421 HUNTINGTON PARK DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303
List Price: $475,000
Prior Sale: $675,000 03/29/2006
Listing Date: 12/07/07
-29.6%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

A Decade of November Sales

			Arlington County
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	149	985	6.61	$474,900
		2006	221	1,007	4.56	$510,900
		2005	230	781	3.40	$549,450
		2004	283	242	0.86	$441,000
		2003	270	279	1.03	$349,500
		2002	252	413	1.64	$286,050
		2001	266	315	1.18	$258,250
		2000	243	265	1.09	$234,000
		1999	248	401	1.62	$197,920
		1998	238	N/A	N/A	$206,700
			Alexandria City
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	127	881	6.94	$450,000
		2006	163	953	5.85	$435,000
		2005	204	755	3.70	$450,000
		2004	302	208	0.69	$365,000
		2003	218	245	1.12	$367,500
		2002	226	335	1.48	$260,000
		2001	221	245	1.11	$215,000
		2000	205	261	1.27	$161,900
		1999	183	474	2.59	$190,904
		1998	158	N/A	N/A	$181,850
			Fairfax County
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	765	7,610	9.95	$420,000
		2006	1,054	6,691	6.35	$462,750
		2005	1,469	5,077	3.46	$482,000
		2004	2,033	1,403	0.69	$395,000
		2003	1,606	2,230	1.39	$315,575
		2002	1,474	3,149	2.14	$265,000
		2001	1,557	2,700	1.73	$236,900
		2000	1,476	2,078	1.41	$210,000
		1999	1,344	2,967	2.21	$191,000
		1998	1,282	N/A	N/A	$186,000
			Loudoun County
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	285	3,455	12.12	$405,000
		2006	362	3,386	9.35	$438,880
		2005	485	2,864	5.91	$480,000
		2004	683	887	1.30	$400,000
		2003	503	1,121	2.23	$305,000
		2002	437	1,498	3.43	$273,500
		2001	445	1,391	3.13	$242,600
		2000	408	827	2.03	$220,450
		1999	303	973	3.21	$177,000
		1998	226	1,303	5.77	$178,100
		1997	164	1,479	9.02	$180,000
			Prince William County & Manassas
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	388	6,488	16.72	$310,000
		2006	461	4,752	10.31	$370,000
		2005	824	3,426	4.16	$389,450
		2004	1,098	830	0.76	$310,000
		2003	778	1,296	1.67	$230,000
		2002	714	1,502	2.10	$196,750
		2001	707	1,185	1.68	$164,800
		2000	533	919	1.72	$144,000
		1999	389	1,599	4.11	$128,900
		1998	339	2,025	5.97	$134,000
		1997	254	2,332	9.18	$126,950
			Fauquier County
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	36	746	20.72	$325,125
		2006	44	723	16.43	$320,900
		2005	79	495	6.27	$434,000
		2004	109	241	2.21	$355,000
		2003	62	348	5.61	$310,603
		2002	61	324	5.31	$205,000
		2001	79	312	3.95	$235,000
		2000	76	263	3.46	$182,795
		1999	82	323	3.94	$171,625
		1998	64	495	7.73	$170,200
		1997	59	610	10.34	$149,000
			Culpeper County
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	38	796	20.95	$280,000
		2006	38	626	16.47	$300,000
		2005	62	447	7.21	$312,788
		2004	65	185	2.85	$296,000
		2003	42	189	4.50	$202,450
		2002	34	171	5.03	$173,550
		2001	44	169	3.84	$159,450
		2000	39	200	5.13	$138,000
		1999	37	257	6.95	$125,000
		1998	26	375	14.42	$131,500
		1997	30	393	13.10	$114,250
			Stafford County
		Year	Sales	Active Listings	Ratio	Median Sold Price
		2007	89	1,401	15.74	$344,700
		2006	128	1,351	10.55	$377,450
		2005	171	826	4.83	$369,000
		2004	233	228	0.98	$299,900
		2003	159	369	2.32	$219,500
		2002	150	408	2.72	$196,975
		2001	136	372	2.74	$174,325
		2000	130	394	3.03	$151,000
		1999	93	496	5.33	$147,000
		1998	95	624	6.57	$149,900
		1997	90	696	7.73	$130,425

Washington Region -- "Surge of Loans Gone Bad"

The Washington Post has a story on rising local home foreclosures. A graph provided by the GMU Center for Regional Analysis shown on the first page shows that defaults are most pronounced in Prince William, Loudoun, Stafford, and Prince George's counties.

This was a curious line in the fourth paragraph:

"The Washington region, once considered immune to the unfolding mortgage crisis, has experienced a surge of loans gone bad in recent months."

Once considered immune? By whom?

Maybe this guy, who's definitely changed his tune on Prince William County:

At the opposite end of the spectrum are Prince William and Loudoun counties, where 262 and 219 out of every 10,000 households, respectively, were in foreclosure, said John McClain, the center's deputy director.

"In those counties, there were plenty of people engaged in speculative activity in addition to all the folks who were overextending to buy a house," McClain said. "There were so many new housing units for sale in that area that people were buying and flipping, buying and flipping."

Prince William County -- On the Market

9509 DAMASCUS DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $187,500
Prior Sale: $445,000 7/3/2006
Listing Date: 12/03/07
-57.9%

13806 BOTTS AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $201,900
Prior Sale: $380,000 6/24/2005
Listing Date: 12/04/07
-46.9%

10690 MEADOW GROVE CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $159,000
Prior Sale: $293,000 12/29/2005
Listing Date: 11/29/07
-45.7%

5385 SHAMUS CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $210,000
Prior Sale: $360,000 7/28/2005
Listing Date: 11/30/07
-41.7%

8183 COMMUNITY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $160,000
Prior Sale: $269,000 8/1/2005
Listing Date: 12/04/07
-40.5%

13110 PUTNAM CIR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $333,000 7/27/2005
Listing Date: 11/30/07
-40.0%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

The Washington Post Interviews Bubble Bloggers

Renae Merle at the Washington Post writes her story on those opposed to a "homeowner bailout" . . .

Those Who Avoided Risk Call Plan A Raw Deal

"The resentment is apparent on blogs that chronicle the mortgage crisis."

Loudoun County -- On the Market

607 MAPLE AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $229,000
Prior Sale: $456,000 01/03/2007
Listing Date: 12/05/07
-49.8%

14 STOCKS
LOVETTSVILLE, VA 20180
List Price: $340,000
Prior Sale: $555,590 03/01/2006
Listing Date: 12/04/07
-38.8%

41792 EXPECTATION SQ
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $530,000 1/18/2006
Listing Date: 12/01/07
-32.1%

25375 SWEETNESS TER
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $555,000 11/29/2006
Listing Date: 11/29/07
-31.5%

19920 UPLAND TER
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $292,900
Prior Sale: $410,000 8/10/2006
Listing Date: 12/03/07
-28.6%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

I'm From the Government, and I'm Here to Help

From Caroline Baum at Bloomberg:

"We learned last week that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was working with the mortgage industry and major financial institutions to craft a plan to freeze introductory teaser rates on certain subprime mortgages that are due to reset higher, as specified by the original terms of the loan.
. . .
According to the broad outlines of the plan, the Treasury will divide subprime borrowers into four groups.
. . .
Group 4 includes those who can continue to make their mortgage payments if the teaser rate stays in effect or the maturity of the loan is extended. For this category, and this category alone, help is on the way.

How do you spell b-u-r-e-a-u-c-r-a-t-i-c n-i-g-h-t-m-a-r-e? If fraud was widespread during the housing bubble, the current plan has its own set of incentives.

``People will come up with eight ways of rearranging their finances to stay in Group 4,'' said Ram Bhagavatula, managing director at Combinatorics Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund.

More to the point, ``this policy solution smells of the tenets of Marxism: from each according to his ability to each according to his need,'' he said.
. . .
If you think getting mortgage servicers and investers to agree on an outcome is tough, just wait until the lawyers get involved.

``The modification of existing contracts, without the full and willing agreement of all parties to these contracts, risks significant erosion of 200 years of contract law,'' said Joshua Rosner, managing director at Graham-Fisher & Co., an independent research firm in New York."

Fairfax County -- On the Market

3899C MANZANITA PL
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $180,000
Prior Sale: $300,000 11/03/2006
Listing Date: 11/29/07
-40.0%

9410 LAKELAND FELLS LN
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $469,900
Prior Sale: $699,000 04/28/2006
Listing Date: 11/29/07
-32.8%

1196 DUBLIN PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $225,000
Prior Sale: $335,000 08/17/2005
Listing Date: 11/26/07
-32.8%

1021 LEXUS WAY
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $443,000 09/28/2006
Listing Date: 12/01/07
-32.3%

3545 EWELL ST
ANNANDALE, VA 22003
List Price: $350,000
Prior Sale: $515,000 03/24/2006
Listing Date: 11/30/07
-32.0%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)