Inelastic Demand

510 NETTLE TREE RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $259,900
Prior Sale: $446,000 04/14/2005
Listing Date: 02/20/07
-41.7%

Price Reduced: 04/09/07 -- $499,900 to $485,000
Price Reduced: 09/17/07 -- $450,000 to $399,999
Price Reduced: 09/21/07 -- $399,999 to $369,500
Price Reduced: 09/24/07 -- $369,500 to $333,000
Price Reduced: 10/05/07 -- $333,000 to $299,900
Price Reduced: 11/02/07 -- $299,900 to $289,900
Price Reduced: 11/24/07 -- $289,900 to $279,900
Price Reduced: 11/28/07 -- $279,900 to $259,900

On Market: 283 days

Here's a brand-new listing on the same street with no photo available:

613 NETTLE TREE RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $224,900
Prior Sale: $410,000 08/17/2005
Listing Date: 11/29/07
-45.1%

Arlington County -- On the Market

3110 19TH ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $471,000
Prior Sale: $650,000 7/25/2005
Listing Date: 11/27/07
-27.5%

2101 LOWELL ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $470,000
Prior Sale: $630,000 3/6/2007
Listing Date: 11/24/07
-25.4%

1311 POLLARD ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $399,000
Prior Sale: $515,000 1/12/2006
Listing Date: 11/19/07
-22.5%

2004 POLLARD ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $430,000
Prior Sale: $499,000 3/22/2006
Listing Date: 11/28/07
-13.8%

3715 2ND ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $425,000
Prior Sale: $470,000 5/2/2006
Listing Date: 11/19/07
-9.6%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Quote

"I think we're headed into a deep recession, the worst since the Depression, as dozens of banks will fail. With massive foreclosures, there are homes that won't see the prices of two years ago for decades."

-Hedge fund manager Mike Burry

Foreclosures vs. Resales

ABC 7 News has a video and article on "ordinary" resellers being affected by foreclosures in Prince William County. The newscaster calls the foreclosure problem "a by-product of the mortgage crisis." A better way of explaining the problem to their viewers might be to say "a by-product of dodgy mortgage lending."

One of the communities hardest hit by the foreclosure problem, Prince William county, isn't just having an impact on those who default on their mortgages, but those trying to sell their homes.

After nearly 40 years of memories in a home that is paid off, Larry and Diane Shandor are struggling to sell their house now, because of others in their neighborhood who can't pay their mortgage.

"How can you compete with a foreclosure home," said Larry Shandor. His problem is an unfortunate byproduct of the mortgage crisis; those trying to sell homes in a market flooded with foreclosures.
. . .
Pable Cava priced his home to compete with the foreclosures and finally sold it after months on the market. "I just had to get rid of it. My wife was sick."

The Shandors had to do the same - reduce the selling price of their home. "What can you do? It's just what's happening right now."

Prince William County -- On the Market

8215 WYCLIFFE CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $174,900
Prior Sale: $295,000 6/22/2005
Listing Date: 11/26/07
-40.7%

8244 SUNSET DR
MANASSAS, VA 20110
List Price: $275,000
Prior Sale: $455,000 9/19/2005
Listing Date: 11/26/07
-39.6%

17454 BAYOU BEND CIR
DUMFRIES, VA 22025
List Price: $249,000
Prior Sale: $390,000 9/23/2005
Listing Date: 11/21/07
-36.2%

6092 OMEGA LN
MANASSAS, VA 20112
List Price: $344,900
Prior Sale: $525,000 7/26/2005
Listing Date: 11/21/07
-34.3%

14129 RANDALL DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $235,000
Prior Sale: $343,000 10/21/2005
Listing Date: 11/26/07
-31.5%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Loudoun County -- On the Market

21099 CHANDLER CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $295,000
Prior Sale: $445,000 09/06/2005
Listing Date: 11/23/07
-33.7%

44485 CHAMBERLAIN TER #202
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $259,900
Prior Sale: $384,649 07/21/2005
Listing Date: 11/26/07
-32.4%

162 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $180,000
Prior Sale: $265,000 12/08/2004
Listing Date: 11/27/07
-32.1%

3 POTTERFIELD DR
LOVETTSVILLE, VA 20180
List Price: $382,200
Prior Sale: $549,000 08/02/2006
Listing Date: 11/21/07
-30.4%

43537 VALLEYVISTA LN
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $539,900
Prior Sale: $775,000 03/28/2007
Listing Date: 11/21/07
-30.3%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Months of Inventory

Months of inventory are up slightly from last month in Fairfax and Loudoun counties, and down 1.3% in Prince William County. These statistics are taken from the "Daily Resale Watch" by Merv Forney at the Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide.


11/26/2007

Fairfax -- 11.2
Loudoun -- 14.4
Prince William -- 17.5

10/29/2007

Fairfax -- 10.7
Loudoun -- 12.6
Prince William -- 18.8

10/01/2007

Fairfax County -- 9.1
Loudoun -- 11.3
Prince William - 16.6

09/07/2007

Fairfax County -- 7.0
Loudoun -- 9.0
Prince William -- 14.3

03/01/2007

Fairfax -- 4.2
Loudoun -- 6.3
Prince William -- 10.0

S&P/Case-Shiller® Third Quarter Results

U.S. home prices fell 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, a record annual decline since Standard & Poor's began its nationwide housing index in 1987.

Prices fell 1.7 percent from the previous three-month period, the largest quarter-to-quarter decline in the index's history.

The S&P/Case-Shiller® quarterly index tracks [same-sale] prices of existing single-family homes across the nation compared with a year earlier.

Click here for the PDF file of the report.

One-year changes for some metropolitan areas:

Tampa -11.1%
Miami -10%
San Diego -9.6%
Phoenix -8.8%
Los Angeles -7.0%
Washington, D.C. -6.6%
New York -3.6%

Fairfax County -- On the Market

724 CORDELL WAY
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $209,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 10/04/2005
Listing Date: 11/20/07
-41.7%

4525 SAMUELS PINE RD
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $329,000
Prior Sale: $550,000 08/02/2005
Listing Date: 11/24/07
-40.2%

652 ALABAMA DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $465,000 10/13/2006
Listing Date: 11/15/07
-39.8%

6805 LOIS DR
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $369,900
Prior Sale: $560,000 05/09/2006
Listing Date: 11/23/07
-33.9%

7152 FLOYD AVE
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $535,000 08/02/2005
Listing Date: 11/16/07
-32.7%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Northern VA Beats the National Average

From the Washington Post:

The number of recent home foreclosure filings in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William counties is up more than 600 percent from a year ago, a much higher increase than in the United States as a whole.

Loudoun had the sharpest increase among the three counties, with 1,073 foreclosure filings in July, August and September, compared with 125 filings during the same period in 2006, a jump of 758 percent, according to RealtyTrac.
. . .
As in Loudoun, the third-quarter spike in foreclosure filings in Fairfax and Prince William far exceeded the increase of 100 percent across the country, RealtyTrac data showed.

The jump was 694 percent in Fairfax, from 229 filings in the third quarter of 2006 to 1,818 in the same period this year. Prince William filings rose 624 percent, from 212 to 1,535.

Deutsche Bank Throws in the Towel

1926 WILLOW LN WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191 List Price: $115,000 Prior Sale: $315,000 4/25/2005 Listing Date: 04/21/07 -63.5%

From ZipRealty:

Price Reduced: 05/23/07 -- $339,900 to $319,900
Price Reduced: 06/20/07 -- $319,900 to $289,900
Price Reduced: 07/19/07 -- $289,900 to $278,900
Price Reduced: 09/13/07 -- $278,900 to $249,900
Price Reduced: 10/19/07 -- $249,900 to $239,900
Price Reduced: 11/19/07 -- $239,900 to $115,000

On Market: 213 days

Prince William County -- On the Market

7979 DEWARD CT
MANASSAS, VA VA 20109
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $495,000 12/12/2006
Listing Date: 10/03/07
-49.5%

16274 RADBURN ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $375,000
Prior Sale: $650,000 11/9/2006
Listing Date: 11/16/07
-42.3%

15013 ALABAMA AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $214,000
Prior Sale: $365,000 4/24/2006
Listing Date: 11/15/07
-41.4%

3534 CASTLE HILL DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $198,000
Prior Sale: $335,000 2/24/2006
Listing Date: 10/13/07
-40.9%

2958 MARSALA CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $225,000
Prior Sale: $366,000 4/4/2006
Listing Date: 11/15/07
-38.5%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Goldman Sachs Forecasts 30% Decline

The Calculated Risk blog posts this from the Goldman Sachs conference call which was held on Monday, November 19th, 2007 at 11:00am EDT:

Eight states ... for which there is greater than 30% house price depreciation forecast would be California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington D.C. ... 13% to 14% nationally masks some states that we have accute concerns.

Loudoun County -- On the Market

220 ASH RD
STERLING, VA VA 20164
List Price: $250,000
Prior Sale: $405,000 11/21/2005
Listing Date: 10/17/07
-38.3%

46730 SUMMIT TER #138
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $217,500
Prior Sale: $329,000 9/20/2005
Listing Date: 11/15/07
-33.9%

215 ASH RD W
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $431,900 9/16/2005
Listing Date: 05/23/07
-30.6%

515 CRESTWOOD ST SW
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $219,900
Prior Sale: $310,000 10/24/2005
Listing Date: 11/16/07
-29.1%

601 VALLEY VIEW AVE SW
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $332,500
Prior Sale: $463,000 11/21/2005
Listing Date: 11/15/07
-28.2%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Arlington County -- On the Market

5353 COLUMBIA PIKE #110
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $120,000
Prior Sale: $185,000 3/28/2005
Listing Date: 06/11/07
-35.1%

4600 FOUR MILE RUN DR #1136
ARLINGTON, VA VA
List Price: $199,000
Prior Sale: $305,700 12/1/2005
Listing Date: 08/10/07
-34.9%

902 QUINCY ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $785,000
Prior Sale: $1,049,000 7/29/2005
Listing Date: 11/12/07
-25.2%

1525 GEORGE MASON DR #22
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $219,000
Prior Sale: $290,000 10/24/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-24.5%

1310 COLUMBUS ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $420,000
Prior Sale: $525,000 7/22/2005
Listing Date: 11/13/07
-20.0%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Arlington County's Weekly Price Reductions

Arlington County currently has 974 active property listings according to ZipRealty. Since last Saturday, 66 (7% of the total) have been reduced in price. A total of 424 properties (44%) have been reduced in price since they were first listed.

This week's price reductions are continued in the "comments" section below:

November 10

Listing: AR6538744 for $427,900 Update Type: Price
1 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price: $449,900
2200 WESTMORELAND ST #525 ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6411717 for $560,000 Update Type: Price
3 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $599,000
1809 CULPEPER ST N ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6551157 for $729,000 Update Type: Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $749,000
1220 FILLMORE ST N #902 ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6530500 for $345,000 Update Type: Price
2 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price: $369,000
3201 9TH ST S ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6530504 for $360,000 Update Type: Price
2 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price: $379,000
3203 9TH ST S ARLINGTON, VA

(continued)

Alexandria City's Weekly Price Reductions

The City of Alexandria currently has 847 active property listings according to ZipRealty. Since last Saturday, 69 (8% of the total) have been reduced in price. A total of 411 properties (49%) have been reduced in price since they were first listed.

This week's price reductions are continued in the "comments" section below:

November 10

Listing: AX6237579 for $1,060,000 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 4 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $1,100,000
1515 PORTNER RD ALEXANDRIA, VA

Listing: AX6446906 for $1,725,000 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 3 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $1,750,000
105 QUAY ST ALEXANDRIA, VA

Listing: AX6522931 for $334,900 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price: $344,900
1234 MARTHA CUSTIS DR ALEXANDRIA, VA

Listing: AX5568258 for $429,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price: $449,000
501 SLATERS LN #1011 ALEXANDRIA, VA

Listing: AX6521295 for $220,000 Update Type:Price
1 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price: $235,000
1225 MARTHA CUSTIS DR #511 ALEXANDRIA, VA

(continued)

Inventory and Price Reductions

	Active		Reduced	Percentage
11/15/2007
Arlington	969		423	44%
Alexandria	853		416	49%
Fairfax	7,560		3,852	51%
Loudoun	3,534		1,791	51%
Prince William	5,560		2,912	52%
Fauquier	979		418	43%
Stafford	1,538		772	50%
Warren	896		358	40%
10/15/2007
Arlington	1,025		407	40%
Alexandria	918		416	45%
Fairfax	8,022		3,924	49%
Loudoun	3,683		1,769	48%
Prince William	5,532		2,884	52%
Fauquier	995		435	44%
Stafford	1,603		771	48%
Warren	916		373	41%
9/17/2007
Arlington	991		328	33%
Alexandria	886		389	44%
Fairfax	8,043		3,783	47%
Loudoun	3,688		1,776	48%
Prince William	5,591		2,851	51%
Fauquier	994		466	47%
Stafford	1,652		814	49%
Warren	941		379	40%
8/15/2007
Arlington	925		340	37%
Alexandria	843		375	44%
Fairfax	7,878		3,622	46%
Loudoun	3,643		1,695	47%
Prince William	5,575		2,827	51%
Fauquier	1,008		473	47%
Stafford	1,725		842	49%
Warren	936		337	36%

Fairfax County -- On the Market

13302 APGAR PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $205,900
Prior Sale: $358,900 01/30/2006
Listing Date: 11/14/07
-42.6%

7228 WILBURDALE DR
ANNANDALE, VA 22003
List Price: $369,900
Prior Sale: $608,400 12/01/2005
Listing Date: 11/09/07
-39.2%

1628 SADLERS WELLS DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $384,900
Prior Sale: $585,000 03/08/2006
Listing Date: 11/12/07
-34.2%

3016 ROSEMARY LN
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $414,900
Prior Sale: $600,000 12/15/2005
Listing Date: 11/08/07
-30.9%

14175 ASHER
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $315,000
Prior Sale: $445,000 06/10/2005
Listing Date: 11/13/07
-29.2%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Brookfield Quits in Fauquier

From the Fauquier Times-Democrat today:

The depressed housing market has claimed another Fauquier subdivision proposal - the 75-home Goodland East project near New Baltimore.

Mega-builder Brookfield Washington LLC withdrew its rezoning application for the project, because of the poor economy, "challenges" posed by Fauquier's land-use review process and sewer capacity issues.

Brookfield Washington's action comes just two months after Dallas,Texas-based Centex Homes stunned local officials by scuttling its 359-home Freedom Place plan at Bealeton.

Centex attributed the move to "the severe and broad market downturn."
. . .
Brookfield Washington agreed to pay Fauquier about $50,000 per dwelling requested.

His client agreed to the $50,000-per-lot donation during a robust residential market, [Brookfield's lawyer] Fallon said. Because of the housing downturn, "the proffers won't work" financially, he said.

The proffer package is untenable partly because of declining property values, Fallon said.

Eighteen months ago, a half-acre to one-acre lot fetched $220,000, according to the zoning lawyer. "You can't get $120,000 for a lot now."

Prince William County -- On the Market

7873 MEADOW CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $145,900
Prior Sale: $289,400 6/30/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-49.6%

4303 ELLIOT CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $174,900
Prior Sale: $325,000 04/14/2006
Listing Date: 11/06/07
-46.2%

15394 GRIST MILL TER
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $187,000
Prior Sale: $319,900 04/03/2006
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-41.5%

15221 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $390,900
Prior Sale: $662,000 1/26/2007
Listing Date: 11/08/07
-41.0%

14747 TAMARACK PL
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $285,000 09/29/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-40.4%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Loudoun County -- On the Market

26 REGIS CIR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $187,000
Prior Sale: $320,000 05/10/2005
Listing Date: 10/16/07
-41.6%

153 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA VA 20176
List Price: $189,900
Prior Sale: $324,000 4/6/2005
Listing Date: 11/09/07
-41.4%

201 ALDER AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $473,000 12/28/05
Listing Date: 11/05/07
-40.8%

127 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA VA 20176
List Price: $177,900
Prior Sale: $295,000 2/2/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-39.7%

239 ROANOKE DR SE
LEESBURG, VA VA 20175
List Price: $220,000
Prior Sale: $355,000 6/12/2006
Listing Date: 11/04/07
-38.0%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Arlington County's Weekly Price Reductions

Arlington County currently has 985 active property listings according to ZipRealty. Since last Saturday, 60 (6% of the total) have been reduced in price. A total of 423 properties (43%) have been reduced in price since they were first listed.

This week's price reductions are continued in the "comments" section below:

November 3

Listing: AR6521197 for $374,900 Update Type:Price
1 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$394,900
3005 BUCHANAN ST ##2168 ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6584298 for $480,000 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$500,000
3912 19TH ST S ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6543583 for $1,695,000 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 4 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$1,750,000
4904 16TH ST N ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6367566 for $2,050,000 Update Type:Price
5 Bedrms 5 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$2,200,000
4400 35TH ST N ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6579905 for $679,000 Update Type:Price
5 Bedrms 4 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$759,900
407 PERSHING DR S ARLINGTON, VA

(continued)

Alexandria City's Weekly Price Reductions

The City of Alexandria currently has 862 active property listings according to ZipRealty. Since last Saturday, 69 (8% of the total) have been reduced in price. A total of 411 properties (48%) have been reduced in price since they were first listed.

This week's price reductions are continued in the "comments" section below:

November 3

Listing: AX6555359 for $629,500 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$645,000
531 SAINT ASAPH ST S ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6487917 for $899,000 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 3 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$929,000
1106 DARTMOUTH RD ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6495617 for $329,900 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$336,900
4551 STRUTFIELD LN #4413 ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6549055 for $190,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$199,000
5911 EDSALL RD #501 ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6486325 for $580,000 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$590,000
5054 MINDA CT ALEXANDRIA

(continued)

A Decade of October Sales

Arlington County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 174 1,057 6.07 $487,500 2006 197 1,195 6.07 $465,500 2005 245 809 3.30 $525,000 2004 280 381 1.36 $415,500 2003 298 365 1.22 $356,750 2002 272 501 1.84 $315,000 2001 268 348 1.30 $249,750 2000 296 324 1.09 $217,450 1999 246 511 2.08 $198,450 1998 240 N/A N/A $214,250 Alexandria City Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 139 919 6.61 $429,900 2006 196 1,104 5.63 $420,500 2005 198 747 3.77 $465,000 2004 264 359 1.36 $348,450 2003 254 289 1.14 $262,400 2002 257 404 1.57 $245,000 2001 236 296 1.25 $185,037 2000 234 271 1.16 $186,000 1999 182 544 2.99 $186,250 1998 184 N/A N/A $188,200 Fairfax County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 788 8,156 10.35 $425,000 2006 1,072 7,840 7.31 $460,000 2005 1,422 5,439 3.82 $489,450 2004 2,041 2,449 1.20 $395,000 2003 1,931 2,781 1.44 $312,000 2002 1,753 3,733 2.13 $265,900 2001 1,554 3,361 2.16 $235,950 2000 1,542 2,201 1.43 $203,850 1999 1,289 3,659 2.84 $189,890 1998 1,224 N/A N/A $189,000 Loudoun County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 304 3,616 11.89 $414,000 2006 372 3,807 10.23 $427,950 2005 526 2,908 5.53 $480,000 2004 680 1,279 1.88 $396,200 2003 580 1,276 2.20 $306,450 2002 473 1,678 3.55 $265,000 2001 425 1,543 3.63 $240,000 2000 451 821 1.82 $225,000 1999 308 1,084 3.52 $192,768 1998 241 1,355 5.62 $198,500 1997 191 1,569 8.21 $169,900 Prince William County & Manassas Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 364 6,508 17.88 $325,125 2006 491 5,354 10.90 $373,900 2005 983 3,532 3.59 $389,000 2004 1,097 1,406 1.28 $300,000 2003 917 1,593 1.74 $227,000 2002 789 1,630 2.07 $193,500 2001 740 1,428 1.93 $164,000 2000 606 947 1.56 $135,700 1999 414 1,751 4.23 $127,975 1998 368 2,108 5.73 $129,400 1997 311 2,485 7.99 $127,000 Fauquier County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 44 787 17.89 $372,450 2006 55 821 14.93 $340,000 2005 78 519 6.65 $423,450 2004 86 310 3.60 $352,450 2003 88 335 3.81 $286,200 2002 75 355 4.73 $243,000 2001 95 337 3.55 $209,000 2000 65 268 4.12 $176,500 1999 64 365 5.70 $190,500 1998 68 540 7.94 $177,000 1997 70 639 9.13 $155,500 Culpeper County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 27 816 30.22 $283,000 2006 44 706 16.05 $342,450 2005 67 452 6.75 $293,900 2004 73 247 3.38 $289,900 2003 56 212 3.79 $228,600 2002 42 169 4.02 $189,700 2001 49 179 3.65 $154,900 2000 45 215 4.78 $129,900 1999 45 261 5.80 $141,233 1998 37 387 10.46 $119,000 1997 40 407 10.18 $128,950 Stafford County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 90 1,402 15.58 $311,000 2006 134 1,442 10.76 $347,200 2005 191 834 4.37 $399,950 2004 228 374 1.64 $293,450 2003 211 398 1.89 $234,990 2002 168 434 2.58 $189,625 2001 156 437 2.80 $165,450 2000 142 406 2.86 $149,750 1999 91 538 5.91 $150,000 1998 87 636 7.31 $139,500 1997 87 709 8.15 $143,500

Source: MRIS

At Least We Passed

Toll grades our region with a "D", which in the old school days aroused inexplicable giddiness in the usual suspects.

"Robert I. Toll, the chief executive, handed out grades for 37 markets that the company operates in, and most got a mark of F or worse.

“The fact that I differentiate between F, F-minus and F-minus-minus” shows just how bad things are, he told analysts during a conference call. He said those grades “go from miserable to outright purgatory.”

The lowest grade went to Las Vegas and Tampa, Fla.
. . .
Nearly all the decent grades went to markets in and around New York City, while some of the worst grades were given to once-hot second-home markets.

The best grade, B-plus, went to Toll’s “city living” apartment projects in the New Jersey suburbs of New York, while similar projects in the city received a B, as did Princeton, N.J., and the states of Delaware and Connecticut. The suburban New York counties of Dutchess and Putnam, which he views as one market, earned a C-plus.

The F-minus grade went to the vacation communities of Hilton Head, S.C.; Palm Springs, Calif.; the Maryland shore; and the Poconos area of Pennsylvania, as well as to Michigan and Atlanta.

The F grade was the one most often given, going to Arizona, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Southern California outside of Palm Springs. The cities of Chicago; San Antonio; Charlotte, N.C.; and Reno, Nev., got the same mark, as did the eastern and northern parts of Florida. Mr. Toll noted that Minnesota had improved to get its grade up to an F.

Another area that has improved, he said, was the western part of Florida, which moved up to a C, although he said that might reflect Toll’s aggressive price cuts. He also awarded C’s to the Texas cities of Austin and Dallas. Colorado got a C-minus.

Raleigh, N.C., fell to D-plus, while D’s were given to most of New Jersey and to Northern California, as well as to Washington and its Maryland suburbs, and the Philadelphia suburbs. D-minus was the grade for West Virginia and central Florida, including Orlando.

Mr. Toll said the downturn was worse than the one in the early 1990s, adding “the growth in the rate of cancellations, the decline in new contracts, and the weaknesses we observed in October suggest that we still have tough times ahead.”

Fairfax County -- On the Market

902 BRANCH DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $215,000
Prior Sale: $380,000 08/17/2005
Listing Date: 11/06/07
-43.4%

369 RENEAU WAY
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $215,000
Prior Sale: $360,000 03/16/2006
Listing Date: 11/02/07
-43.4%

6730 BOWIE DR
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $340,000
Prior Sale: $485,000 10/26/2005
Listing Date: 11/01/07
-29.9%

8459 SUGAR CREEK LN
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22153
List Price: $254,000
Prior Sale: $355,000 07/21/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-28.5%

1367 SHALLOW FORD RD
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $500,000 05/12/2005
Listing Date: 11/06/07
-28.0%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

October Sales

October real estate sales results for Northern Virginia will be out tomorrow at the MRIS, but Merv Forney at the Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide has them (scroll down the page to his November 5 posting) for October for Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties, along with some nifty charts and commentary.

Fairfax County shows a 3.5% YOY decline in median price, Loudoun a 4% decline, and Prince William County a 14% decline.

Arlington County -- On the Market

5209 16TH ST N
ARLINGTON, VA 22205
List Price: $649,500
Prior Sale: $851,520 5/19/2006
Listing Date: 11/01/07
-23.7%

4376 PERSHING DR N #4
ARLINGTON, VA 22203
List Price: $215,000
Prior Sale: $265,000 9/28/2005
Listing Date: 11/01/07
-18.9%

2808B 16TH RD S #2808B
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $275,000
Prior Sale: $328,000 10/25/2005
Listing Date: 11/02/07
-16.2%

5419 8TH PL S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $370,000 5/16/2006
Listing Date: 11/06/07
-12.2%

3211 GLEBE RD
ARLINGTON, VA 22202
List Price: $459,900
Prior Sale: $524,000 3/15/2006
Listing Date: 11/03/07
-12.2%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

The Issue For The Whole Financial System

Greenspan today:

"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday that falling U.S. home prices and high inventories of unsold properties presented a major risk to the U.S. economy and financial markets.

Greenspan said he was not "sanguine" about the how quickly the glut of unsold homes could be reduced.

"We still need to accelerate the rate of inventory liquidation, and that will mean bringing housing starts down and sales up. We have a long way to go," said Greenspan, who was answering questions at a CEO conference in Tokyo via video link from Washington.

"The critical issue on the whole subprime, and by extension the whole financial system, rests very narrowly on getting rid of probably 200,000-300,000 excess units in inventories in the United States," he said."

Playing Low-Ball in Real Life

An amazing story was posted yesterday by a commenter in the Bits Bucket section over at Ben's Housing Bubble Blog yesterday.

I wanted to highlight it here before it got lost in the hundreds of new posts that will be there today.

I called the post "amazing" because it was proof to me that getting out there and submitting low offers on foreclosures will be responded to by the bank. It was a refreshing antidote to this unbelievably pessimistic article by Elizabeth Razzi over at the Washington Post: Tortuous Short Sales: Cheaper Purchases That Aren't Always Worth It. (The title says it all). In Razzi's words: "Why volunteer for such a hassle [buying a short sale] when the local market is glutted with similar homes that you could purchase more easily?"

In this particular case, to be fair to Razzi, the house was a foreclosure rather than her dreaded short sale.

The house in this post (12850 Fleetwood Drive, Nokesville, VA 20181) was built in 2006 and sits on 10 acres in Nokesville in Prince William County. It was featured on this blog when it was first listed for $730,000 on 08/31/07 (13.5% less than its purchase price on 6/5/2006 for $843,920). It was subsequently reduced to $660,000 by 11/05/07, for a 22% reduction over its prior sales price.

Here's what Lost in Nova offered, and he actually got a response back:

"Comment by Lost in Nova
2007-11-05 05:00:50

Another story from NoVA….

We placed a bid on this place Address: 12850 FLEETWOOD DRIVE: NOKESVILLE, VA 20181. REO original owner in 06 purchased in June of 06 (Was brand new in June of 06) the bank has held it for about 8 months now, not a single bid on this 10 acre, 4000+ sqft + 2100 sqft unfinished basement home. The original owner paid 800k+, had some down payment because the note was for something like 620k, bank was asking 715.00..The comps killed this place a really nice home (in immaculate condition) on 24 acres with 3-4 useful outbuildings just had sold for 750.00k….Also this house is on a flag lot (with perhaps a 1000 ft gravel driveway) and you could tell the owner had stretched, no deck, no landscaping to speak of (a few straggly trees) the refrigerator was missing, some light fixtures missing, the kitchen island countertop was damaged (and oddly enouh seemed a few inches to short) when we looked at it there was crap in every toilet and they would not flush, the upstairs carpet was stained (dyed?) a varied and wonderful set of colors and the basement had a standing pool of water.

We offered 256,400. They called back on Saturday, and said the offer was too low and that if we would up it somewhat higher, they did not want to carry the house through winter (it did not look winterized to me)….My original max had been 350k, I was going to counter with that having the strange feeling they would take it…But then I had a moment of clarity…..Why am I caring so much about this property? There are MANY other REOs in this price range that are much nicer…My wife took a deep breath, thanked the gentlemen for their time and kindly told them that if in six months we were still in the market and the property was still available we would revisit it, but in all likelihood the offer would be lower.

-Lost in Nova"

I think "Lost's" wife was prudent, and I hope they keep trying and find success. For those of you who find something you really like, I hope it encourages you not to be daunted by the list prices. This couple initially offered 70% off of the prior sale and 66% off the county's assessed price, and the bank was willing to continue negotiations.

Up In Smoke

The bubble fallout and the big boys:

Citigroup Chairman and CEO Prince resigned today;

Stanley O'Neal was ousted as chief executive of Merrill Lynch;

In July, UBS Chief Executive Peter Wuffli resigned abruptly;

Bear Stearns' James Cayne -- Dude, Where's My CEO?

Monday morning update: H&R Block Inc. said Chief Financial Officer William Trubeck has stepped down from his position ``effective immediately.''

Price Correction Calculator

Kevin at the Baltimore Housing Bubble blog has put some work into creating a "price correction" Excel table based on an article entitled How Low Can They Go? by Shawn Tully in this month's edition of Fortune Magazine.

More on the article from Kevin:

It combined extensive analysis of 54 metro housing markets with the combined work of Moody’s Economy.com, Fortune Analysts, PPR, & NAR. The basis of the article was to provide a snapshot of what the future of housing will look like in 5 years from June 2007. They determined a correction value (sometimes positive) by comparing present day price to rent ratios with the average of the past 15 years.

Kevin welcomes feedback on his project that can be downloaded at the Baltimore Housing Bubble.

Here's a rent/buy scenario in Warrenton:

7611 MOVERN LN WARRENTON, VA 20187 MLS #: FQ6581602 List Price: $2,000

7611 MOVERN LN WARRENTON, VA 20187 MLS #: FQ6438125 List Price: $529,000

No One Showed Up To Bid

NBC4 has a video and article on Prince William County foreclosures.

From the article:

"No one showed up to bid or buy in Prince William County Friday, but the auctioneer will stay busy due to the growing number of home foreclosures in the county that are causing a ripple effect in the county's revenue stream.

There have been nearly 1,000 foreclosures since August, and the "for sale" signs are springing up like weeds.

"This could be catastrophic to the school budget," said Board of Education chair Lucy Beauchamp.

. . ."The board can raise the tax rate to offset that," Martino [county's director of finance] said."

This Week -- Arlington Price Reductions

Arlington County currently has 991 active property listings according to ZipRealty. Since last Saturday, 70 (7% of the total) have been reduced in price. A total of 423 properties (43%) have been reduced in price since they were first listed.

This week's price reductions are continued in the "comments" section below:

October 27

Listing: AR6453011 for $1,849,500 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 5 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$1,975,000
2707 DINWIDDIE ST N
ARLINGTON, ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6530154 for $920,000 Update Type:Price
5 Bedrms 3 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$944,000
1305 TAYLOR ST N
ARLINGTON, ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6458160 for $369,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$369,900
3108 HAYES ST
ARLINGTON, ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6549865 for $1,189,000 Update Type:Price
5 Bedrms 3 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$1,200,000
4914 YORKTOWN BLVD
ARLINGTON, ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6484044 for $599,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$611,000
1101 ARLINGTON RIDGE RD #714
ARLINGTON, ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6557084 for $514,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$529,900
1633 COLONIAL TER N #212
ARLINGTON, ARLINGTON, VA

(continued)

Ryland's 3-Day Sale

Thanks to a blog reader for noticing that Ryland's offering up to 48% off "original prices" at their "Idlewild" condo/retail development in Fredericksburg.

Carlyle 2,889 3 Bedrooms/2.5 Bathrooms/1-Car Garage
Original Price: $592,111
Event Price: $309,000
Lot: 192

Carlyle 2,889 3 Bedrooms/2.5 Bathrooms/1-Car Garage
Original Price: $609,191
Event Price: $319,000
Lot: 196

Carlyle 2,889 3 Bedrooms/2.5 Bathrooms/1-Car Garage
Original Price: $595,334
Event Price: $314,000
Lot: 198

30-Year Rates Fall

"Rates on 30-year mortgages fell to the lowest level in five months, Freddie Mac reported Thursday.

30-year, fixed-rate mortgages dipped to 6.26 percent this week, down from 6.33 percent last week. It was the lowest level since 30-year mortgages were at 6.21 percent the week of May 17."

Prince William County -- On the Market

13766 MELLOWDEW CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $200,000
Prior Sale: $355,000 5/31/2006
Listing Date: 10/29/07
-43.7%

12942 TONKA CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $245,000
Prior Sale: $391,000 11/9/2005
Listing Date: 10/31/07
-37.3%

16607 RESERVOIR LOOP
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $369,900
Prior Sale: $570,000 8/4/2006
Listing Date: 10/26/07
-35.1%

9904 ARROWOOD DR
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $389,999
Prior Sale: $600,000 7/3/2006
Listing Date: 10/28/07
-35.0%

13572 CASTLEBRIDGE LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $325,000
Prior Sale: $490,000 6/6/2006
Listing Date: 10/30/07
-33.7%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Loudoun County -- On the Market

203 GRAYSON PL
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $259,900
Prior Sale: $485,000 10/04/2005
Listing Date: 10/25/07
-46.4%

831 SUGARLAND RUN DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $186,000
Prior Sale: $315,000 04/25/2005
Listing Date: 10/26/07
-41.0%

213 SHENANDOAH ST SE
LEESBURG, VA VA 20175
List Price: $199,000
Prior Sale: $331,000 11/30/2005
Listing Date: 08/22/07
-39.9%

41741 ELOQUENCE TER
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $315,000
Prior Sale: $493,390 1/26/2006
Listing Date: 10/31/07
-36.2%

204 HAWKS VIEW SQ SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $297,000
Prior Sale: $459,000 02/16/2006
Listing Date: 10/28/07
-35.3%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)