Yes, Virginia, There Are Foreclosures

Finally, The Washington Post supplies a story on foreclosures on page A01. It's by Kirstin Downey, of course.

"'We're seeing an uptick, and it's fairly dramatic. It appears to be accelerating, and we haven't reached the peak,' said John Rust, commissioner of accounts for the Fairfax County Circuit Court."

The trickle down effect for the neighbors . . .

"If foreclosures multiply in a neighborhood, with lenders eager to dump properties for a quick sale, home prices can be depressed. The drop in prices can pull down tax assessments, giving local governments less money to pay for schools, police, parks and social services."

And the trickle down economy thing . . .

"Five unrelated people are living in a house facing foreclosure in Manassas. One of the tenants, Cristian Mendes, from El Salvador, said that the owner, who lives in the house, is losing it to the bank because his boarders have lost their construction jobs and can no longer pay rent."

Here's a new one. It seems that "everyone wants to live here" might not be ringing true:

"Now many immigrants who bought homes in Herndon are walking away from the properties, said Miguel Martinez, a real estate agent with Prosperity Realty. He said the good-paying jobs they had in residential construction have disappeared, and they can't make the payments any more. Many undocumented workers also fear anti-immigrant sentiments in Herndon, Martinez said, and worry that they or their relatives could be deported if arrested for other infractions.

'Now everybody wants to leave Herndon,' Martinez said."

Billions and Trillions

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are masking burgeoning losses in the market for subprime mortgage bonds by failing to cut the credit ratings on about $200 billion of securities backed by home loans.
. . .
Downgrades by S&P, Moody's and Fitch would force hundreds of investors to sell holdings, roiling the $800 billion market for securities backed by subprime mortgages and $1 trillion of collateralized debt obligations, the fastest growing part of the financial markets.

``You'll see massive losses from banks, insurance companies and pension managers,'' said Joshua Rosner, a managing director at investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co. in New York and co-author of a study last month that said S&P, Moody's and Fitch understate the risks of subprime mortgage bonds. ``The longer they wait, the worse it's going to be.''

Houses are only "worth" what these guys can fund . . . They're the sun, the condos are the phytoplankton, and Mr. Toll's McMansions are the killer whales.

Arlington County -- On the Market

2108 NELSON ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $625,000 6/30/2006
Listing Date: 06/21/07
-42.4%

1504S GEORGE MASON DR #2
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $229,900
Prior Sale: $285,000 7/13/2005
Listing Date: 04/18/07
-19.3%

5435 8TH ROAD S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $310,000
Prior Sale: $370,000 08/08/05
Listing Date: 06/25/07
-16.2%

801 GREENBRIER ST #406
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $399,999
Prior Sale: $443,161 6/21/2005
Listing Date: 03/23/07
-9.7%

1701 MONROE ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $590,000
Prior Sale: $615,000 05/02/2005
Listing Date: 04/25/07
-4.1%

1021 GARFIELD ST #615
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $559,900
Prior Sale: $581,900 08/08/2005
Listing Date: 05/17/07
-3.8%

1021 GARFIELD ST N #507
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $639,000
Prior Sale: $635,400 07/11/2005
Listing Date: 03/05/07
+0.5%

1021 GARFIELD ST #141
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $589,900
Prior Sale: $595,000 1/27/2006
Listing Date: 04/27/07
-0.9%

1021 GARFIELD ST #304
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $409,900
Prior Sale: $386,400 6/22/2005
Listing Date: 05/31/07
+6.1%

Loudoun County -- On the Market

203 GRAYSON PL
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $300,000
Prior Sale: $485,000 10/04/2005
Listing Date: 05/22/07
-38.1%

114 WOODGATE CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $219,900
Prior Sale: $320,000 4/15/2005
Listing Date: 04/17/07
-31.3%

1000 BRETHOUR CT #214
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $266,900
Prior Sale: $365,000 10/24/2006
Listing Date: 05/22/07
-26.9%

712 CONCORD CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $322,000 12/05/2005
Listing Date: 06/22/07
-22.4%

107 CHELSEA CT NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $264,900
Prior Sale: $340,500 07/06/2006
Listing Date: 03/27/07
-22.2%

326 LANCASTER SQ #326
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $259,900
Prior Sale: $330,000 02/03/2006
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-21.2%

201 HARRISON RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $470,000 06/29/2006
Listing Date: 06/26/07
-19.2%

43570 FREEPORT PL
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $899,000
Prior Sale: $1,110,975 07/28/2006
Listing Date: 06/21/07
-19.1%

734 TONQUIN PL NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $592,900
Prior Sale: $730,000 07/12/2006
Listing Date: 05/25/07
-18.8%

133 CEDARWALK CIR NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $263,900
Prior Sale: $315,000 08/30/2006
Listing Date: 05/22/07
-16.2%

20386 CHARTER OAK DR
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $499,900
Prior Sale: $580,000 04/03/2006
Listing Date: 04/22/07
-13.8%

18764 TRIDENT SQ
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $350,000
Prior Sale: $405,000 02/16/2005
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-13.6%

23080 PECOS LN
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $699,000
Prior Sale: $807,181 02/23/2006
Listing Date: 04/15/07
-13.4%

200 PIN OAK CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $469,900
Prior Sale: $541,000 05/03/2005
Listing Date: 11/10/06
-13.1%

17486 LETHRIDGE CIR
ROUND HILL, VA 20141
List Price: $499,900
Prior Sale: $570,200 12/27/05
Listing Date: 04/15/07
-12.3%

235 DRY MILL RD SW
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $998,000
Prior Sale: $1,100,000 06/2/2005
Listing Date: 04/26/07
-9.3%

26368 STRATHAVEN CT
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $875,000
Prior Sale: $961,749 11/18/2005
Listing Date: 01/26/07
-9.0%

21673 LIVERPOOL ST
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $588,225
Prior Sale: $630,000 04/12/2005
Listing Date: 05/02/07
-6.6%

S&P/Case-Shiller April Report

The S&P/Case-Shiller April sales housing index report was released today.

U.S. home prices fell for the 17th month in a row with all regions showing the effect of the housing slowdown.

14 of 20 cities reported prices had dropped or remained flat compared to 2006.

The S&P's 20-city index showed a 2.1 percent drop in the price for sales of existing single-family homes across the U.S.

Boston, Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego and Washington, D.C., showed the greatest year-over-year declines in prices.

Fairfax County -- On the Market

6302 SUNSET TER
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22153
List Price: $267,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 07/14/2005
Listing Date: 06/23/07
-25.6%

1301 BAYSHIRE LN
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $400,000
Prior Sale: $525,999 07/05/2006
Listing Date: 03/28/07
-24.0%

4927 CASIMIR ST
ANNANDALE, VA 22003
List Price: $374,900
Prior Sale: $480,000 06/13/2006
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-21.9%

2176 MAGER DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $284,000
Prior Sale: $359,500 07/29/2005
Listing Date: 04/27/07
-21.0%

6611 CREEK RUN DR
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $422,500
Prior Sale: $530,000 12/12/2005
Listing Date: 06/22/07
-20.3%

9480 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #203
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $394,900
Prior Sale: $490,000 02/22/2006
Listing Date: 04/02/07
-19.4%

2103 MAGER DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $367,900 10/28/2005
Listing Date: 06/07/07
-18.5%

2653 PARK TOWER DR #113
VIENNA, VA 22180
List Price: $449,000
Prior Sale: $531,990 08/15/2005
Listing Date: 03/30/07
-15.6%

6604 PALAMINO ST
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $458,500
Prior Sale: $540,000 08/16/2005
Listing Date: 06/25/07
-15.1%

9486 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #207
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $384,900
Prior Sale: $452,600 10/11/2005
Listing Date: 03/13/07
-15.0%

2178 MAGER DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $375,000 06/20/2006
Listing Date: 06/11/07
-13.4%

8626 VILLAGE WAY #05/862
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $225,900
Prior Sale: $260,000 04/04/2006
Listing Date: 06/12/07
-13.1%

12000 MARKET ST #143
RESTON, VA 20190
List Price: $300,000
Prior Sale: $344,900 03/21/2005
Listing Date: 06/24/07
-13.0%

5658 CABELLS MILL CT
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $339,900
Prior Sale: $390,000 05/02/2005
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-12.8%

9490 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #127
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $269,999
Prior Sale: $308,900 10/21/2004
Listing Date: 04/29/07
-12.6%

2436 CLOUDCROFT SQ
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $320,000
Prior Sale: $359,999
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-11.1%

613 MERLINS LN
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $389,900
Prior Sale: $438,000 02/02/2005
Listing Date: 06/22/07
-11.0%

5664 CABELLS MILL CT
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $390,000 10/24/2005
Listing Date: 01/04/07
-10.3%

2452 WINDBREAK DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22306
List Price: $373,900
Prior Sale: $415,000 09/02/2005
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-9.9%

12733 FAIR CREST CT
FAIRFAX, VA 22033
List Price: $346,500
Prior Sale: $380,000 01/23/2006
Listing Date: 04/03/07
-8.8%

3907 STONE MANSION CT
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22306
List Price: $494,900
Prior Sale: $540,000 08/25/2006
Listing Date: 05/01/07
-8.4%

6014 FREDERICK ST
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $519,900
Prior Sale: $555,000 04/26/2006
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-6.3%

3830 LIGHTFOOT #428
cHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $350,000
Prior Sale: $369,005 10/13/2005
Listing Date: 06/23/07
-5.2%

2726 GALLOWS RD #915
VIENNA, VA 22180
List Price: $329,900
Prior Sale: $337,900 10/24/2005
Listing Date: 06/23/07
-2.4%

Exurban Bubble Story

You may not have heard of these places in the "exurbs" in Northern Culpeper County:

Amissville, VA
Jeffersonton, VA

Yet people moved out there to escape high housing prices further in, and gained a heckuva commute to D.C. (Yes, to D.C. proper. They leave around 5:00 am).

And then house prices started escalating there as well, and builders and speculators jumped on board.

In 2005, I visited Enterprise Rent-a-Car for a rental car in Warrenton (that's out past Gainesville). Somehow the conversation turned to the housing market. The rental employee who gave me a courtesy pickup at the dealership lived in a subdivision in Jeffersonton. He said "My house will be worth a million dollars soon!" (It had jumped in value from 250K to 500K in the last three years).

In 2005, Culpeper County tax rates were $.89 per $100 of assessed value. I thought: ok, how much has your raise at Enterprise Rental Car been in the last three years? In 2002, tax rates were at $.92 cents and his property taxes would have been $2,300 a year. In 2005, there hadn't been a reassessment yet (to take into account the '03-'05 runup), but they theoretically would have been $4,450 per year for a 500K house. And if the County hadn't cut rates to $.56 in 2007, at a "cool million" his taxes would have been $8,900 a year.

The following week, my neighbor repeated the same words: "My house will be worth a million dollars soon." (I wondered: what is it with the million thing?)

Check out the dramatic drop in millage rates to make up for the housing bubble:

CULPEPER COUNTY TAX RATES -- REAL ESTATE

YEAR      RATE per $100
          of ASSESSED VALUE     REASSESSMENT YEAR
 
2007      $ .56                  Yes
2006      $ .89
2005      $ .89 
2004      $ .89
2003      $ .81                  Yes
2002      $ .92 
2001      $ .88 
2000      $ .82  
1999      $ .74  
1998      $ .74                  Yes  
1997      $ .74

And how are these exurban towns faring now?

Here are the May statistics:

Amissville (20106):

Active listings: 62
Sales: 2
Median Sold Price: $335,000

Jeffersonton (22724):

Active listings: 43
Sales: 3
Median Sold Price: $322,500


If a house were priced over $400K in either town, the seller had a zero percent chance of selling in May. Most of the inventory is priced in that range, however. In Amissville, 74% of the inventory is over 400K, and in Jeffersonton, 93% of active listings are over 400K.

Centex is gearing up to build several hundred homes in Jeffersonton, as mentioned a few weeks back on this blog.

(According to MRIS data, in May 2007 Culpeper County had 352 properties on the market priced above 400K. The number sold: 6. That's 59 months of inventory in that price range).

Prince William County -- On the Market

15235 VALLEY STREAM DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $296,000 1/20/2006
Listing Date: 06/22/07
-32.5%

13203 KEYSTONE DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $413,455 2/20/2007
Listing Date: 02/11/07
-32.3%

3212 BIRCHDALE SQ
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $236,900
Prior Sale: $312,000 12/9/2005
Listing Date: 03/12/07
-24.1%

710 REDGATE LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $375,000
Prior Sale: $484,195 8/1/2005
Listing Date: 06/24/07
-22.6%

13854 MONTOCLAIR LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $310,000
Prior Sale: $399,900 7/10/2006
Listing Date: 06/21/07
-22.5%

19172 POTOMAC CREST DR
TRIANGLE, VA 22172
List Price: $559,900
Prior Sale: $710,000 10/23/2006
Listing Date: 06/21/07
-21.1%

14308 BIRCHDALE AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $300,000
Prior Sale: $375,000 2/21/2006
Listing Date: 03/31/07
-20.0%

17905 MILROY DR
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $234,900
Prior Sale: $292,032 2/21/2007
Listing Date: 02/21/07
-19.6%

13312 KEYSTONE DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $285,000
Prior Sale: $343,500 6/5/2006
Listing Date: 06/22/07
-17.0%

3406 BRAHMS DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $326,000
Prior Sale: $386,000 9/2/2005
Listing Date: 05/15/07
-15.5%

16200 CUTTER WAY
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $557,900
Prior Sale: $647,054 3/27/2006
Listing Date: 06/16/07
-13.8%

19229 POTOMAC CREST DR
TRIANGLE, VA 22172
List Price: $590,000
Prior Sale: $678,775 10/3/2005
Listing Date: 01/25/07
-13.1%

8841 DUNSTABLE LOOP
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $350,000
Prior Sale: $393,000 10/26/2005
Listing Date: 02/21/07
-10.9%

5608 SOLHEIM CUP DR
HAYMARKET, VA 20169
List Price: $534,900
Prior Sale: $597,348 4/25/2005
Listing Date: 04/21/07
-10.5%

3029 VIDALIA CT
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $672,900
Prior Sale: $750,000 4/19/2006
Listing Date: 06/12/07
-10.3%

2492 PAXTON ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $384,975 5/8/2006
Listing Date: 06/21/07
-9.1%

3514 BUFFALO CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $280,000
Prior Sale: $300,000 2/15/2006
Listing Date: 06/17/07
-6.7%

12958 TERMINAL WAY
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $370,000
Prior Sale: $389,900 5/26/2006
Listing Date: 04/17/07
-5.1%

Newest Statistics from NAR

The newest resale numbers from the National Association of Realtors:

Sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 0.3 percent to 5.99 million units in May, the slowest sales pace since 5.94 million in June of 2003. [That's from April, the YOY (May 2006 to May 2007) sales dropped 10.3%].

Median price of a home in May: $223,700, down 2.1% from a year ago. The 10th straight price decline compared with a year ago, the longest stretch of weakness on record.

Sales Volume by Region:

   South:    down 3.4%
   West:     down 0.8%
   Northeast:  up 5.8%
   Midwest:    up 0.8%

Inventory of unsold homes: up 5% to 4.43 million units in May, which represents 8.9 months of inventory. The highest inventory level since 1992.

NAR Prediction: the median home price will decline by 1.3 percent this year while sales are forecast to drop by 4.6 percent. It would be the first annual price decline in 40 years of record-keeping.

Loudoun County -- On the Market

44016 RIVERPOINT DR
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $565,000
Prior Sale: $734,165 11/01/2005
Listing Date: 06/20/07
-23.0%

107 CHELSEA CT NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $264,900
Prior Sale: $340,500 07/06/2006
Listing Date: 03/27/07
-22.2%

21745 LEATHERLEAF CIR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $319,900
Prior Sale: $400,000 05/18/2005
Listing Date: 06/05/07
-20.0%

41749 ELOQUENCE TERRACE
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $399,000
Prior Sale: $487,590 01/25/2006
Listing Date: 02/26/07
-18.2%

41792 EXPECTATION SQ
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $436,900
Prior Sale: $530,000 1/18/06
Listing Date: 01/18/07
-17.6%

41889 PRECIOUS SQ
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $381,000
Prior Sale: $444,290 03/1/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-14.2%

22725 THIMBLEBERRY SQ #202
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $329,500
Prior Sale: $382,000 4/03/2006
Listing Date: 06/22/07
-13.7%

23051 FONTWELL SQ #901
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $339,950
Prior Sale: $389,990 06/06/2006
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-12.8%

22355 DOLOMITE HILLS DR
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $879,900
Prior Sale: $1,000,000 12/19/2005
Listing Date: 02/17/07
-12.0%

22687 ASHLEY INN TER
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $445,900
Prior Sale: $499,900 12/22/2005
Listing Date: 06/20/07
-10.8%

40650 LENAH RUN CIR
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $829,000
Prior Sale: $835,000 11/19/2004
Listing Date: 02/25/07
-0.7%

The Gated Community

Arlington County -- On the Market

1917 RANDOLPH ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $509,900
Prior Sale: $642,000 1/25/2006
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-20.6%

5921 3RD ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $634,900
Prior Sale: $750,000 6/16/2005
Listing Date: 04/04/07
-15.3%

850 HARRISON ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $363,500
Prior Sale: $415,000 1/31/2006
Listing Date: 06/07/07
-12.4%

5035 25TH ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22206
List Price: $509,900
Prior Sale: $580,000 7/31/2006 $580,000
Listing Date: 06/06/07
-12.1%

1021 GARFIELD ST #510
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $639,000
Prior Sale: $649,900 8/3/2005
Listing Date: 05/17/07
-1.7%

1021 GARFIELD ST N #424
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $629,000
Prior Sale: $631,900 6/28/2005
Listing Date: 05/15/07
-0.5%

2008 CLEVELAND ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $579,000
Prior Sale: $570,000 7/29/2005
Listing Date: 04/24/07
+1.6%

3600 GLEBE RD S #502
ARLINGTON, VA 22202
List Price: $242,000
Prior Sale: $237,000 4/2/2007
Listing Date: 04/17/07
+2.1%

801 GREENBRIER ST S #116
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $325,000
Prior Sale: $317,361 6/20/2005
Listing Date: 06/16/07
+2.4%

2206 RANDOLPH ST S #2
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $465,000
Prior Sale: $438,200 4/14/2005
Listing Date: 05/31/07
+6.1%

818 ADAMS ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $599,900
Prior Sale: $506,000 8/26/2004
Listing Date: 06/21/07
+18.6%

"Real Estate Live" Discussion Today

Real Estate Live meets today with Maryann Haggerty and Elizabeth Razzi, Washington Post Real Estate Editor and Columnist, at 1:00 PM.

Submit your questions here.

Don't Panic

News from Richmond, our Commonwealth's HQ:

With state revenues falling below expectations and the fiscal year set to end June 30, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is casting a wary eye at softening home sales, refinancing activity and other housing-related activity.

Finance Secretary Jody Wagner told Senate budget writers Monday that the administration will convene a special meeting of housing experts in July to try to gauge the outlook for the industry.
. . .

The shortfall has been estimated at $200 million to $300 million.

[Governor] Kaine has said the shortfall itself is not a cause for panic, although he has encouraged state agencies to curb discretionary spending. More worrisome is whether this is a blip on the radar on the start of a downward trend.

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

7318 BEVERLY PARK DR
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $449,900
Prior Sale: $540,000 07/28/2006
Listing Date: 06/20/07
-16.7%

1106 CRITON ST
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $464,900
Prior Sale: $550,000 07/06/2006
Listing Date: 05/01/07
-15.5%

1731 WESTWIND WAY #20
MCLEAN, VA 22102
List Price: $339,000
Prior Sale: $395,000 12/27/2005
Listing Date: 05/04/07
-14.2%

6601J JUPITER HILLS CIR #J
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22312
List Price: $344,900
Prior Sale: $400,000 01/24/2006
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-13.8%

5807 OAK BUCKET CT
BURKE, VA 22015
List Price: $367,500
Prior Sale: $421,000 05/25/2005
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-12.7%

362 LINDEN CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $338,000 02/15/2005
Listing Date: 05/02/07
-11.3%

356 LINDEN CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $364,900
Prior Sale: $410,000 04/05/2006
Listing Date: 03/14/07
-11.0%

2451 HUNTINGTON PARK DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303
List Price: $624,888
Prior Sale: $670,000 02/28/2006
Listing Date: 06/06/07
-6.7%

2465 HUNTINGTON PARK DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303
List Price: $669,900
Prior Sale: $716,525 01/04/2006
Listing Date: 02/05/07
-6.5%

2463 HUNTINGTON PARK DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303
List Price: $589,900
Prior Sale: $629,525 01/03/2006
Listing Date: 02/16/07
-6.3%

1114 CRITON ST
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $424,000
Prior Sale: $450,000 11/28/2005
Listing Date: 12/08/06
-5.8%

Prince William County Same-House Sales

6529 ATKINS WAY
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $459,900
Prior Sale: $698,190 10/18/2005
Listing Date: 06/15/07
-34.1%

4704 LAPENE CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $479,900
Prior Sale: $695,000 6/15/2006
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-30.9%

1750 ANN SCARLET CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $455,000
Prior Sale: $645,000 10/24/2006
Listing Date: 03/27/07
-29.5%

12014 SORREL RIVER WAY
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $490,000 8/17/2006
Listing Date: 06/15/07
-28.6%

15935 CANADA GOOSE LOOP
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $329,900
Prior Sale: $453,450 4/17/2006
Listing Date: 06/18/07
-27.2%

6021 ABERNETHY LN
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $419,000
Prior Sale: $563,980 3/24/2006
Listing Date: 06/15/07
-25.7%

5065 ANCHORSTONE DR #307
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $314,000
Prior Sale: $397,000 9/23/2005
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-20.9%

14423 MACON GROVE LN
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $377,910 4/25/2006
Listing Date: 06/16/07
-20.6%

12513 ERROLL LN
Bristow, 20136
List Price: $469,900
Prior Sale: $591,090 1/4/2006
Listing Date: 05/09/07
-20.5%

17436 BAYOU BEND CIR
DUMFRIES, VA 22025
List Price: $429,900
Prior Sale: $535,000 8/2/2006
Listing Date: 06/15/07
-19.6%

6092 OMEGA LN
Manassas, 20112
List Price: $425,000
Prior Sale: $525,000 7/26/2005
Listing Date: 05/19/07
-19.0%

8106 BRIGHT POND WAY
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $410,000
Prior Sale: $481,775 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-14.9%

7416 BARBADOS LN
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $330,000 1/23/2006
Listing Date: 04/24/07
-12.2%

9503 LOMOND DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $269,900
Prior Sale: $252,500 9/26/2003
Listing Date: 05/19/07
+6.9%

500 Top Foreclosure Zip Codes

CNNMoney has a list out this morning of where the most foreclosures have been filed.

These areas in Northern Virginia made the list:

22193 Woodbridge VA with 340 foreclosure filings.
22191 Woodbridge VA with 230 foreclosure filings.
20110 Manassas VA with 186 foreclosure filings.
20164 Sterling VA with 169 foreclosure filings.

Business News from Fauquier

Fauquier County? Way out there, for you folks close in. Yet an area that saw the same run-up in prices, only with the added burden of the over-building in closer-in Prince William County.

The newest buzz on the street is short sales.
. . .
What is new, and what we are starting to see in our area is more and more real estate listing are advertising short sales.
. . .
In Fauquier County, property values are declining. Presently, properties are remaining on the market an average of 90 to 110 days. Only one out of five listings goes under contract, and we currently have a year and a half of inventory on the market.

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

18856 RIDGEBACK CT
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $999,900
Prior Sale: $1,385,820 03/01/2006
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-27.8%

43235 LECROY CIR
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $639,900
Prior Sale: $835,000 08/11/2006
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-23.4%

301 BRETHOUR CT #62
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $249,000
Prior Sale: $325,000 07/6/2006
Listing Date: 06/18/07
-23.4%

22966 FANSHAW SQ
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $499,000
Prior Sale: $642,000 09/26/2006
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-22.3%

527 BRETHOUR CT #32
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $210,000
Prior Sale: $269,000 03/02/2005
Listing Date: 04/23/07
-21.9%

236 HAWKS VIEW SQ SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $359,000
Prior Sale: $440,740 10/27/2005
Listing Date: 02/26/07
-18.5%

452 SUGARLAND RUN DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $359,625
Prior Sale: $440,000 09/12/2005
Listing Date: 06/17/07
-18.3%

43560 MERCHANT MILL TER
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $585,000
Prior Sale: $711,185 08/19/2005
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-17.7%

43607 PARISVILLE CT
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $784,900
Prior Sale: $950,175 08/09/2006
Listing Date: 06/15/07
-17.4%

426 LILAC TER NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $410,000 11/01/2005
Listing Date: 05/11/07
-14.7%

22992 FONTWELL SQ #502
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $324,500
Prior Sale: $385,000 05/05/2006
Listing Date: 06/16/07
-15.7%

23051 FONTWELL SQ #901
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $339,950
Prior Sale: $389,990 06/06/2006
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-12.8%

46819 IRONSTONE TER
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $350,000
Prior Sale: $400,000 04/27/2006
Listing Date: 06/12/07
-12.5%

21787 LADYSLIPPER SQ
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $458,000
Prior Sale: $522,075 01/05/2006
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-12.3%

22121 CHELSY PAIGE SQ
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $525,000
Prior Sale: $586,410 05/06/2005
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-10.5%

42477 UNICORN DR
SOUTH RIDING, VA 20152
List Price: $750,000
Prior Sale: $815,197 09/23/2005
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-8.0%

25196 DESTINATION SQ
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $450,000
Prior Sale: $481,690 06/20/2005
Listing Date: 11/14/06
-6.6%

What a Difference Timing Makes

7915 SAN LEANDRO PL #119E
Alexandria, VA 22309

(Currently on the market as a short sale at $240,000)

Sales History
Date	Amount
09/21/2006	$270,000
05/02/2000	$71,000
08/12/1997	$72,581
12/06/1993	$78,300

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

5613B HARRINGTON FALLS LN
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22312
List Price: $394,900
Prior Sale: $530,000 10/05/2006
Listing Date: 06/12/07
-25.5%

3810 LIGHTFOOT ST #203
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $225,700
Prior Sale: $285,180 09/30/2005
Listing Date: 06/16/07
-20.9%

3553 ELLERY CIR
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22041
List Price: $569,900
Prior Sale: $690,540 04/19/2005
Listing Date: 06/16/07
-17.5%

2254 BERGER PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $340,000
Prior Sale: $404,900 10/17/2005
Listing Date: 03/30/07
-16.0%

1258 BOND ST
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $350,000
Prior Sale: $412,000 05/19/2005
Listing Date: 05/09/07
-15.0%

2410 CLOUDCROFT SQ
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $350,000 04/11/2005
Listing Date: 12/23/06
-14.3%

8734 WILD PRAIRIE ROSE WAY
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $680,000
Prior Sale: $791,229 08/23/2005
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-14.1%

6017 LITTLE BROOK CT
CLIFTON, VA 20124
List Price: $339,900
Prior Sale: $391,000 12/01/2005
Listing Date: 02/06/07
-13.1%

13919 LINDENDALE LN
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $462,000
Prior Sale: $525,000 04/13/2005
Listing Date: 03/14/07
-12.0%

8451 HALLIE ROSE ST
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $489,000
Prior Sale: $554,990 08/25/2005
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-11.9%

2408 TERRA COTTA CIR
HERNDON, VA 20171
List Price: $499,990
Prior Sale: $566,675 09/01/2005
Listing Date: 06/16/07
-11.8%

7915 SAN LEANDRO PL #119E
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $240,000
Prior Sale: $270,000 09/21/2006
Listing Date: 05/04/07
-11.1%

7827 COLONIAL SPRINGS BLVD
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22306
List Price: $409,999
Prior Sale: $439,000 05/22/2006
Listing Date: 04/30/07
-6.6%

3842 ELMWOOD TOWNE WAY
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303
List Price: $584,900
Prior Sale: $621,500 01/31/2005
Listing Date: 06/15/07
-5.9%

1640 GREAT FALLS ST
MCLEAN, VA 22101
List Price: $634,900
Prior Sale: $675,000 10/06/2005
Listing Date: 12/13/06
-5.9%

2497 TERRA COTTA CIR
HERNDON, VA 20171
List Price: $479,900
Prior Sale: $505,100 04/29/2005
Listing Date: 08/18/06
-5.0%

7751 MILFORD HAVEN DR #51A
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $414,900
Prior Sale: $435,000 04/11/2005
Listing Date: 04/27/07
-4.6%

Foreclosures Update

Foreclosures Update (from www.foreclosure.com).

"Active" Foreclosures 06/18/2007

Arlington: 9
Fairfax: 285
Loudoun: 195
Prince William: 454
Frederick: 42
Fauquier: 16
Culpeper: 30
Stafford: 66

"Active" Foreclosures 06/06/2007

Arlington: 11
Fairfax: 281
Loudoun: 178
Prince William: 452
Frederick: 38
Fauquier: 17
Culpeper: 28
Stafford: 65

"Active" Foreclosures 05/27/2007

Arlington: 11
Fairfax: 260
Loudoun: 171
Prince William: 418
Frederick: 38
Fauquier: 20
Culpeper: 24
Stafford: 79

Price Reductions

Ziprealty.com has a handy feature -- a clickable box that says "Only show properties with reduced prices." Here's a search on 06/16/2007 of all active properties (residential and land) and the percentage of those that have been reduced in price:

Arlington County
Active Listings: 987
Reduced: 326
33%

Alexandria City
Active Listings: 911
Reduced: 383
42%

Fairfax County
Active Listings: 7,769
Reduced: 3,243
42%

Loudoun County
Active Listings: 3,649
Reduced: 1,616
44%

Prince William County
Active Listings: 5,561
Reduced: 2,608
47%

Fauquier County
Active Listings: 1,041
Reduced: 423
41%

Stafford County
Active Listings: 1,785
Reduced: 819
46%

Warren County
Active Listings: 957
Reduced: 331
35%

Prince William County Same-House Sales

8872 YELLOW HAMMER DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $519,900
Prior Sale: $720,000 6/12/2006
Listing Date: 06/11/07
-27.8%

14905 SOUTHERN CROSSING ST
HAYMARKET, VA 20169
List Price: $465,000
Prior Sale: $599,900 9/1/2006
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-22.5%

17530 VICTORIA FALLS DR
DUMFRIES, VA 22025
List Price: $322,900
Prior Sale: $410,000 6/7/2006
Listing Date: 06/10/07
-21.2%

14552 KYLEWOOD WAY #053
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $309,900
Prior Sale: $385,000 5/9/2005
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-19.5%

14494 KYLEWOOD WAY #172
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $362,985 3/7/2006
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-17.4%

2624 CAST OFF LOOP
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $510,000
Prior Sale: $606,845 9/15/2005
Listing Date: 06/11/07
-16.0%

12909 OARLOCK CT
MANASSAS, VA 20112
List Price: $409,000
Prior Sale: $474,950 9/14/2005
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-13.9%

16561 RESERVOIR LOOP
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $499,900
Prior Sale: $580,000 10/24/2006
Listing Date: 06/13/07
-13.8%

16628 BARGE CIR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $433,000 6/28/2006
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-12.3%

9015 RAGING WATER DR
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $594,900
Prior Sale: $671,770 4/13/2006
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-11.4%

16974 HORTON COURT
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $499,999
Prior Sale: $561,500 12/16/2005
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-11.0%

15316 LORD CULPEPER COURT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $500,000
Prior Sale: $546,850 10/5/2005
Listing Date: 06/10/07
-8.6%

2501 LUCKLAND LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $369,000
Prior Sale: $373,315 4/6/2005
Listing Date: 06/14/07
-1.2%

8337 CRIMSON CROSSING WAY
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $599,999
Prior Sale: $600,240 10/1/2004
Listing Date: 06/12/07
-0.0%

Delinquencies

The AP is reporting the news about subprime mortgages. The gist: the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday that the percentage of payments that were 30 or more days past due for "subprime" adjustable-rate home mortgages increased to 15.75 percent in the January-to-March quarter, the highest on record. The prior quarter's delinquency rate was 14.44 percent.

The percentage of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that started the foreclosure process in the first quarter of this year was 3.23 percent, also the highest on record. That was up from 2.70 percent in the final quarter of 2006 according to Doug Duncan, the chief economist for the MBA.

Here are some notes from the report at the Mortgage Bankers Assocation's website:

The rate of delinquencies is being driven by what is taking place in seven states. The percentage of loans in foreclosure would be well below the average of the last ten years were it not for Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, and the rate of foreclosures started nationwide would have fallen were it not for the big jumps in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Those states have special circumstances that do not reflect what is happening in the rest of the country," said Doug Duncan, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development.

Regarding the situation in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, Duncan said:

"While foreclosure starts increased slightly from last quarter, thus setting another record, most of the increase was due to only four states, California, Florida , Nevada, and Arizona. Without these four states, foreclosure starts would have declined. 24 states saw a decline in foreclosure starts, while the rest of the states saw negligible increases, with the largest increases coming in Nevada (19 basis points), Florida (13 basis points), California (12 basis points), Maine (8 basis points), and Arizona (7 basis points)."

"Information provided to the MBA from a variety of sources indicates that the foreclosures in Florida, Nevada, California, and Arizona are heavily influenced by speculators who are walking away from properties now that home prices have started to fall in areas of those states and they face resets in the adjustable-rate mortgages they took out for these homes. In addition, speculators in Florida are also facing much higher insurance bills."

"Much attention has been paid to the performance of the subprime ARM market. The rate of foreclosures started on subprime ARMs jumped from 2.7 percent to 3.23 percent. However, the states mainly responsible for that increase were California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Twenty-six states had decreases in the foreclosure rates on subprime ARMs, and the national foreclosure rate on subprime ARMs would have slightly declined were it not for the increases in those four states."

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

133 CATOCTIN CIR SW
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $308,000 10/27/2005
Listing Date: 01/29/07
-22.1%

259 ELIA CT SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $540,000
Prior Sale: $689,715 05/02/2006
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-21.7%

22240 STABLEHOUSE DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $414,900
Prior Sale: $525,000 07/18/2006
Listing Date: 06/10/07
-21.0%

203 SAINT JOHNS SQ #203
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $233,000
Prior Sale: $285,000 07/06/2005
Listing Date: 06/09/07
-18.2%

123 CATOCTIN CIR SW
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $290,000 02/13/2006
Listing Date: 04/25/07
-17.3%

22193 STABLEHOUSE DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $369,000
Prior Sale: $445,000 09/29/2006
Listing Date: 06/02/07
-17.1%

223 PENNY LN
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $374,500
Prior Sale: $424,900 01/26/2006
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-11.9%

217 PENNY LN
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $379,999
Prior Sale: $430,000 04/25/2005
Listing Date: 05/07/07
-11.6%

19962 FIELDGRASS SQ
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $355,000
Prior Sale: $398,000 07/26/2005
Listing Date: 06/05/07
-10.8%

201 SAINT JOHNS SQ #201
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $264,500 03/16/2006
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-9.3%

44029 RIVERPOINT DR
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $798,000
Prior Sale: $872,302 03/02/2006
Listing Date: 02/15/07
-8.5%

43996 RIVERPOINT DR
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $699,900
Prior Sale: $743,590 10/26/2005
Listing Date: 01/04/07
-5.9%

43429 VALLEYVISTA LN
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $495,000
Prior Sale: $515,000 01/06/2006
Listing Date: 02/26/07
-3.9%

42480 ROCKROSE SQUARE #102
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $329,999
Prior Sale: $341,900 10/05/2005
Listing Date: 06/12/07
-3.5%

May Foreclosure Update from RealtyTrac

RealtyTrac® (http://www.realtytrac.com/gateway_co.asp?accnt=137300), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its May 2007 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 176,137 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported during the month, up 19 percent from the previous month and up nearly 90 percent from May 2006. The report also shows a national foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 656 U.S. households during the month.
. . .
“After a barely perceptible dip in April, foreclosure activity roared back with a vengeance in May,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Such strong activity in the midst of the typical spring buying season could foreshadow even higher foreclosure levels later in the year. Certainly not every community nationwide is seeing an increase in foreclosures, but foreclosed properties are becoming more commonplace and adding to the downward pressure on home prices in many areas.”

May 2007 Virginia Foreclosures
NODs	NTSs	NFSs	LISs	REOs
686	684	0	0	400
Total	1 for every #HH	%Change from Apr 2007	%Change from May 2006
1,770	1,631	21.65	411.56

NIMBYism in the News

At a May 31 public hearing with the Fauquier County Planning Commission, residents voiced their concerns about two developments proposed west of Gainesville. These include a 98-acre Lone Star Farm site at Route 600 and Route 676 by Mooreland LLC, and 75 single-family homes at its 48-acre Goodland East site by Brookfield Washington LLC.

"I have one word for" the Lone Star proposal, Himes told the commissioners. "It's spelled G-R-E-E-D!"

About the Goodland East project Himes said: "I object to this request because of the sheer numbers. There's far too many [homes]."

Debbie Reedy also worries about the number of lots requested. "I live in right in the middle of all of this," she said. "Maybe the density is a little high."

"I would just beg of you to look at this," Kim Baird of New Baltimore told the commission during the Goodland hearing. "I think our way of life is slowly going away."

Planning Commission member Jim Stone (Cedar Run District) had strong words for the Goodland East proposal.He called it a "latter-day, Levittown, cookie-cutter community."
. . .
Planning Commission Chairman Holder Trumbo (Scott District) spoke dismissively of the two subdivision proposals. Both fall within the Comprehensive Plan's allowable density for the sites, Trumbo said. And he described the developers cash contributions as "significant."

But Trumbo believes the developers can do better than the standard cul-de-sac subdivision design being proposed and hopes they consider community concerns about density and traffic impacts.

"It's a matter of quality of life," Trumbo said.

Catching up in PW County

Demand for housing construction has slowed considerably since the Prince William County board installed a de-facto moratorium on new subdivisions on Jan. 1, though it is unclear if the new rule or the unfriendly real estate market deserves the credit.

Application fees are down 80 percent this year compared with the same period in 2006, county Director of Planning Stephen Griffin said.

The policy required the planning department to wait a full year before acting on residential requests.

Because the change dovetailed with an overall chill in the home market, assigning responsibility is a difficult matter, Griffin said.

“The timing is such that we can’t tell the difference,” he said.

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

6005 FORREST HOLLOW LN
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22152
List Price: $367,500
Prior Sale: 03/20/2007 $284,000
Prior Sale: 08/03/2005 $465,000
Listing Date: 04/17/07
+29.40 (Unsold Foreclosure Flip)
-38.9% (Prior Sale)

14845 BASINGSTOKE LOOP
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $310,000
Prior Sale: $387,000 06/29/2005
Listing Date: 06/02/07
-19.9%

3701 GEORGE MASON DR #2611N
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22041
List Price: $263,900
Prior Sale: $328,000 10/11/2005
Listing Date: 04/10/07
-19.5%

5803 ROYAL RIDGE DR #F
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22152
List Price: $195,000
Prior Sale: $240,000 09/21/2005
Listing Date: 01/14/07
-18.8%

5170 WILLIAM COLIN CT #J
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $284,500
Prior Sale: $350,000 01/17/2006
Listing Date: 06/06/07
-18.7%

9480 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #203
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $404,900
Prior Sale: $490,000 02/22/2006
Listing Date: 04/02/07
-17.4%

13625 LAVENDER MIST LN
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $499,000
Prior Sale: $599,750 10/11/2005
Listing Date: 06/09/07
-16.8%

9490 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #230
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $404,900
Prior Sale: $481,600 10/14/2005
Listing Date: 02/22/07
-15.9%

14719 BASINGSTOKE LOOP
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $308,900
Prior Sale: $365,000 11/16/2005
Listing Date: 05/25/07
-15.4%

9710 KINGSBRIDGE DR #201
FAIRFAX, VA 22031
List Price: $214,900
Prior Sale: $249,000 05/26/2006
Listing Date: 06/05/07
-13.7%

13934 NEW BRADDOCK RD
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $365,000
Prior Sale: $411,000 11/01/2006
Listing Date: 04/15/07
-11.2%

9490 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #127
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $275,000
Prior Sale: $308,900 10/21/2004
Listing Date: 04/29/07
-11.0%

9490 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #344
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $290,000
Prior Sale: $310,900 05/09/2005
Listing Date: 04/26/07
-6.7%

11009 THRUSH RIDGE RD
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $409,700
Prior Sale: $429,000 05/24/2005
Listing Date: 03/31/07
-4.5%

1819 WESTMORELAND ST
MCLEAN, VA 22101
List Price: $609,900
Prior Sale: $625,000 12/29/2005
Listing Date: 05/15/07
-2.4%

Flipping Fixers

In today's Real Estate section of the Washington Post:

Taking Advantage of 'As-Is'

The neighbors wanted to have the house condemned.

But Jackie Braitman knew the home in Takoma Park had potential. When it came on the market, listed for sale "as-is," she pounced, picking it up for about $550,000. Three years -- and a complete renovation -- later she is selling the house for more than twice that.

"Is selling" -- is it on the market for that amount, or is it in escrow already?

May sales statistics:

Takoma Park, MD 2007, 2006

Total Sold Dollar Volume: $8,806,650 $5,998,500 +46.81%
Median Sold Price: $445,000 $462,500 -3.78%
Total Units Sold: 19, 13 +46.15%
Active Listings: 86

Of the 19 sold last month, 19 were priced between $200,000 and $799,999.

None were sold over $800,000.

Sure, renovating and flipping a fixer for a profit is possible in this market, but the article would have been more "fair and balanced" if it had interviewed some other rehab jobs that have been reduced in price and are still sitting on the market in Takoma Park.

A Decade of May Sales

Arlington County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 307 1,017 3.31 $485,000 2006 264 1,337 5.06 $528,500 2005 362 361 1.00 $518,000 2004 332 302 0.91 $407,800 2003 332 379 1.14 $328,750 2002 316 357 1.13 $293,573 2001 310 341 1.10 $227,250 2000 250 408 1.63 $231,500 1999 281 678 2.41 $216,000 1998 292 N/A N/A $219,450 Alexandria City Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 205 1,007 4.91 $469,000 2006 233 1,159 4.97 $479,900 2005 319 310 0.97 $465,000 2004 278 273 0.98 $359,950 2003 283 299 1.06 $295,000 2002 282 262 0.93 $258,000 2001 268 301 1.12 $196,700 2000 256 433 1.69 $199,700 1999 220 668 3.04 $182,709 1998 178 N/A N/A $195,500 Fairfax County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 1,271 7,980 6.28 $460,000 2006 1,526 8,811 5.77 $487,250 2005 2,291 2,660 1.16 $489,900 2004 2,228 2,242 1.01 $385,750 2003 2,136 3,317 1.55 $315,000 2002 1,914 3,053 1.60 $272,300 2001 2,012 3,108 1.54 $234,450 2000 1,965 3,175 1.62 $212,700 1999 1,770 4,815 2.72 $193,700 1998 1,592 N/A N/A $198,000 Loudoun County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 457 3,713 8.12 $435,000 2006 484 4,719 9.75 $479,900 2005 799 1,486 1.86 $475,900 2004 750 1,144 1.53 $372,000 2003 630 1,618 2.57 $292,950 2002 507 1,541 3.04 $250,000 2001 607 1,388 2.29 $225,000 2000 452 938 2.08 $190,500 1999 329 1,277 3.88 $174,950 1998 264 1,775 6.72 $177,760 1997 215 1,636 7.61 $179,000 Prince William County & Manassas Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 489 6,199 12.68 $365,000 2006 766 5,867 7.66 $389,900 2005 1,286 1,623 1.26 $370,000 2004 1,082 1,079 1.00 $279,000 2003 957 1,619 1.69 $214,900 2002 826 1,336 1.62 $183,750 2001 793 1,294 1.63 $158,500 2000 710 1,418 2.00 $134,250 1999 548 2,045 3.73 $130,000 1998 449 2,844 6.33 $129,000 1997 346 2,963 8.56 $128,000

May Sales

Arlington County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $176,340,221; $156,926,220 +12.37%
Median Sold Price: $485,000; $528,500 -8.23%
Total Units Sold: 307, 264 +16.29%

Alexandria City 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $108,390,470; $124,994,309 -13.28%
Median Sold Price: $469,000; $479,900 -2.27%
Total Units Sold: 205, 233 -12.02%

Fairfax County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $694,019,806; $840,300,662 -17.41%
Median Sold Price: $460,000; $487,250 -5.59%
Total Units Sold: 1,271; 1,526 -16.71%

Loudoun County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $234,874,894; $262,352,054 -10.47%
Median Sold Price: $435,000; $479,900 -9.36%
Total Units Sold: 457, 484 -5.58%

Prince William County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $175,878,178; $288,297,096 -38.99%
Median Sold Price: $375,000; $392,000 -4.34%
Total Units Sold: 432, 661 -34.64%

Foreclosures Update

Foreclosures Update (from www.foreclosure.com).

"Active" Foreclosures 06/06/2007

Arlington: 11
Fairfax: 281
Loudoun: 178
Prince William: 452
Frederick: 38
Fauquier: 17
Culpeper: 28
Stafford: 65

"Active" Foreclosures 05/27/2007

Arlington: 11
Fairfax: 260
Loudoun: 171
Prince William: 418
Frederick: 38
Fauquier: 20
Culpeper: 24
Stafford: 79

"Active" Foreclosures 05/17/2007

Arlington: 16
Fairfax: 235
Loudoun: 155
Prince William: 350
Frederick: 32
Fauquier: 14
Culpeper: 26
Stafford: 77

Prince William County Same-House Sales

12501 ERROLL LN
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $459,990
Prior Sale: $651,890 1/3/2006
Listing Date: 05/30/07
-29.4%

1738 ANN SCARLET CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $440,000
Prior Sale: $617,000 6/15/2005
Listing Date: 06/02/07
-28.7%

5752 CARIBBEAN CT
HAYMARKET, VA 20169
List Price: $599,900
Prior Sale: $840,000 11/3/2006
Listing Date: 05/30/07
-28.6%

16806 SWEENEY LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $325,000
Prior Sale: $445,000 10/13/2005
Listing Date: 05/30/07
-27.0%

11260 KESSLER PL
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $285,600
Prior Sale: $375,000 6/28/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-23.8%

4215 EVERGREEN DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $348,800
Prior Sale: $455,000 7/22/2005
Listing Date: 10/26/06
-23.3%

810 BELMONT BAY DR #202
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $384,900
Prior Sale: $499,900 3/24/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-23.0%

13733 MARILYN CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $329,900
Prior Sale: $415,000 2/24/2006
Listing Date: 05/10/07
-20.5%

8122 LEVITY PL
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $381,000
Prior Sale: $473,000 7/21/2005
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-19.5%

8400 SPRUCE ST
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $393,500 4/26/2007
Listing Date: 05/18/07
-17.4%

8932 YELLOWLEG CT
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $439,900
Prior Sale: $518,770 11/30/2005
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-15.2%

17180 LARKIN DR
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $385,000
Prior Sale: $450,000 12/29/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-14.4%

15423 BINDER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $364,900
Prior Sale: $425,000 8/2/2005
Listing Date: 04/06/07
-14.1%

15333 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $499,000
Prior Sale: $580,000 11/30/2005
Listing Date: 06/04/07
-14.0%

15417 BINDER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $436,985 7/12/2005
Listing Date: 05/18/07
-13.1%

8505 SPRUCE ST
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $349,950
Prior Sale: $395,000 3/20/2006
Listing Date: 05/14/07
-11.4%

15427 BINDER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $330,900
Prior Sale: $371,840 3/30/2005
Listing Date: 06/04/07
-11.0%

4119 GRANBY RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $351,900
Prior Sale: $395,000 2/21/2006
Listing Date: 05/03/07
-10.9%

9801 NUGGET CT
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $509,500
Prior Sale: $569,900 7/19/2005
Listing Date: 05/30/07
-10.6%

13229 TRIPLE CROWN LOOP
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $445,900
Prior Sale: $498,261 10/13/2005
Listing Date: 06/04/07
-10.5%

10610 BRISTOW STATION DR
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $419,000
Prior Sale: $446,400 9/29/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-6.1%

11606 AMARA PL
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $369,900
Prior Sale: $390,000 6/27/2005
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-5.2%

9147 CASCADE FALLS DR
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $419,000
Prior Sale: $433,970 11/21/2005
Listing Date: 06/03/07
-3.4%

3627 SERENDIPITY RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $543,900
Prior Sale: $552,274 9/17/2004
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-1.5%

A Tactic

As mentioned in the "introduction" section to this blog, we sold our house in 2005 and have been renters since then. The last two houses we've rented are "failed sells". In the one we're in now, the real estate agent advised the clients last year to "rent it out 'til the market got better next year". (Cough).

So, up this house went on the market in March of this year. (I'm sure you know the rest of the story).

Today I found a typed note in the mailbox:

"Dear Homeowner,

My wife and I are looking to move into your neighborhood and see that your home is for sale. We would like you to consider renting your home to us for 12 months with the option to purchase the home from you during this time.

As you know the current market is not favorable for homeowners. The average number of days a home sits on the market before sale continues to rise and prices continue to fall. These numbers will likely continue to get worse as we go into the summer months.

We are flexible on move in, July or August, so you can decide what works best for you.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Sincerely,
[Name, Phone, and E-mail Address]

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

43231 CANAL CREEK PL
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $699,900
Prior Sale: $1,017,860 12/29/2005
Listing Date: 06/02/07
-31.2%

122 ASPEN AVE N
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $324,500
Prior Sale: $469,000 05/19/2006
Listing Date: 05/24/07
-30.8%

120 ASPEN AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $329,900
Prior Sale: $470,000 01/03/2006
Listing Date: 02/12/07
-29.8%

404 HEARTWOOD CT
PURCELLVILLE, VA 20132
List Price: $609,900
Prior Sale: $787,000 09/07/2006
Listing Date: 06/03/07
-22.5%

21865 BROADLEAF SQ
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $355,900
Prior Sale: $433,000 01/24/2006
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-17.8%

23042 FONTWELL SQ #707
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $327,900
Prior Sale: $390,000 03/31/2006
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-15.9%

43125 CROSSWIND TER
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $475,000
Prior Sale: $556,265 11/03/2005
Listing Date: 05/16/07
-14.6%

43002 MATTIES TER
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $469,900
Prior Sale: $547,488 12/29/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-14.2%

105 ROSEBROOK CT NW
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $574,900
Prior Sale: $651,505 09/02/2005
Listing Date: 05/28/07
-11.8%

21787 BALDWIN SQ #300
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $279,500
Prior Sale: $313,500 05/22/2006
Listing Date: 04/17/07
-10.8%

42982 MATTIES TER
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $464,900
Prior Sale: $519,814 11/04/2005
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-10.6%

41889 PRECIOUS SQ
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $399,000
Prior Sale: $444,290 03/1/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-10.2%

39 BENTON CT
STERLING, VA 20165
List Price: $292,900
Prior Sale: $310,000 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 04/15/07
-5.5%

626 GREYSANDS LN
PURCELLVILLE, VA 20132
List Price: $435,000
Prior Sale: $457,439 09/01/2004
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-4.9%

14042 BLUE VIEW CT
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $795,000
Prior Sale: $833,745 11/28/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-4.6%

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

101 HERNDON MILL CIR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $530,000
Prior Sale: $775,000 12/06/2005
Listing Date: 03/22/07
-31.6%

2200 CASTLE ROCK SQ #32C
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $210,000
Prior Sale: $290,000 05/26/2006
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-27.6%

2244 CASTLE ROCK SQ #44/22C
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $220,000
Prior Sale: $300,000 05/01/2006
Listing Date: 04/22/07
-26.7%

4257 AMERICANA DR #204
ANNANDALE, VA 22003
List Price: $180,900
Prior Sale: $238,000 08/11/2006
Listing Date: 05/28/07
-24.0%

2231 CASTLE ROCK SQ #31/2B
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $210,000
Prior Sale: $267,000 08/01/2005
Listing Date: 04/04/07
-21.3%

14443 SAGUARO PL
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $305,000 08/17/2006
Listing Date: 05/13/07
-21.3%

110 HERNDON MILL CIR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $520,000
Prior Sale: $639,900 03/31/2005
Listing Date: 05/25/07
-18.7%

3911 ELMWOOD DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303
List Price: $333,900
Prior Sale: $402,500 04/15/2005
Listing Date: 05/24/07
-17.0%

10327 BRIDGETOWN PL #82
BURKE, VA 22015
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $390,000 04/19/2006
Listing Date: 05/31/07
-16.7%

13530 SIERRA DR
CLIFTON, VA 20124
List Price: $329,900
Prior Sale: $391,000 06/03/2005
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-15.6%

12804 LADY FAIRFAX CIR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $390,000
Prior Sale: $462,000 03/23/2005
Listing Date: 05/24/07
-15.6%

1916 LEO LN
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22308
List Price: $559,900
Prior Sale: $650,000 08/04/2005
Listing Date: 04/11/07
-13.9%

14353 SAGUARO PL #14353
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $234,900
Prior Sale: $269,900 07/13/2005
Listing Date: 05/24/07
-13.0%

9944 EAST HILL DR
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $785,000
Prior Sale: $875,840 08/02/2005
Listing Date: 03/30/07
-10.4%

2726 GALLOWS RD #1207
VIENNA, VA 22180
List Price: $427,500
Prior Sale: $471,400 12/16/2005
Listing Date: 06/01/07
-9.3%

5800 BRIDGETOWN CT #14
BURKE, VA 22015
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $383,888 04/20/2006
Listing Date: 05/09/07
-8.9%

3820 LIGHTFOOT ST #113
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $243,500
Prior Sale: $251,490 09/22/2005
Listing Date: 03/16/07
-3.2%

2726 GALLOWS RD #1419
VIENNA, VA 22180
List Price: $479,000
Prior Sale: $491,400 11/30/2005
Listing Date: 04/11/07
-2.5%