Personal Foreclosure Anecdote

Yesterday I was doing research for this blog, and discovered that a house on a friend's street was going up for auction on May 4th. Legal Notices of Trustee's Sales are posted in the Washington Post here:

http://mypublicnotices.com/washingtonpost/PublicNotice.asp

Sadly, the renter there (nice lady) was not even informed this was going to occur. This scenario has been bantered about over at Ben Jones' Housing Bubble blog, and those who were renting had warned each other to tread carefully in these days of growing foreclosures. New tenants should be advised to do some "due diligence" on the property owner and find out if he or she appears to be an "underwater" speculator. One possible sign of that is a house that has been purchased in the last three years, which was the case in my friend's neighbor's situation.

Thankfully, we were able to make the tenant aware of the situation and offer assistance. In Fairfax County, the buyer has a mere 15 days to close. If no one buys the property, the bank will reposess it and list it through a real estate agency.

David Lereah Leaving NAR

From MarketWatch:

David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, is leaving NAR to join Move Inc. as chairman and partner of a new business entity next month, NAR said Monday. [. . . ] He will leave the association in mid-May, NAR said.

A pithy "take" on his departure is by our local Fool, Seth Jayson. (I'll excerpt just a little and you can click on his name for the rest):

His ability to make bad predictions was, to my mind, only surpassed by the magnitude of his bombast, or perhaps his ill timing.

An Interview with Stephen Fuller this A.M.

This morning at around 8:20 a.m., Stephen Fuller of the George Mason Center for Regional Analysis was interviewd by WTOP radio. The highlights:

- There are more jobs in the Northern VA region than employees.

- It will hurt the economy if not corrected, as employers will move elsewhere.

- Employers are already moving elsewhere.

- The reason for the labor shortage? Housing costs. Families with children can find an equal or better quality of life (a house with a yard) in other regions.

- Less than 25% of households have school-aged children (He didn't specify in which counties - I think he may have been talking about Fairfax County).

- We need more housing, but of the small kind for small households. Singles and couples without kids make for a good tax base.

My thoughts: (Please share yours, too).

- Housing prices hit a peak in the autumn of 2005 in Northern VA. By then, the exodus of working people who wanted a small yard for less than 600K had probably been well under way.

- Encouraging singles and couples with no children to live in "smaller spaces" is going to be difficult. We rent in a McMansion community and there are many households with merely 2 members (at 4000+ square feet).

- If done very well, however, a true "village" concept might be architecturally and aesthetically desirable for those with no children. Perhaps desirable enough to give up the McMansion.

- Do we need to build more housing? I do think that an adequate supply of new housing is a good thing.

- But this problem might be self-correcting, and that correction is already under way.

(This topic is also covered in more depth today in the Washington Post: "More Jobs Than People in Fairfax")

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

12261 TURKEY WING CT
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $310,000
Prior Sale: $393,000 11/09/2006
Listing Date: 12/19/06
-21.1%

13306 APGAR PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $294,900
Prior Sale: $370,000 11/04/2005
Listing Date: 04/09/07
-20.3%

6302 YELLOWSTONE DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22312
List Price: $449,000
Prior Sale: $560,000 08/23/2005
Listing Date: 02/26/07
-19.8%

13344 APGAR PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $292,950
Prior Sale: $351,000 07/31/2006
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-16.5%

6017F CURTIER DR #F
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $309,900
Prior Sale: $355,000 05/09/2005
Listing Date: 04/28/07
-12.7%

1249 BOND ST
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $383,900
Prior Sale: $440,000 12/28/2005
Listing Date: 04/26/07
-12.8%

8109 ANNA CT #20
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $439,900
Prior Sale: $500,000 09/02/2005
Listing Date: 04/26/07
-12.02%

2966 FRANCISCAN LN
FAIRFAX, VA 22031
List Price: $586,000
Prior Sale: $650,000 04/13/2006
Listing Date: 04/28/07
-9.8%

13919 LINDENDALE LN
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $474,000
Prior Sale: $525,000 04/13/2005
Listing Date: 03/14/07
-9.7%

4643 RED ADMIRAL WAY
FAIRFAX, VA 22033
List Price: $469,990
Prior Sale: $502,840 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 04/27/07
-6.5%

5606 BISMACH DR #4
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22312
List Price: $245,000
Prior Sale: $259,900 10/04/2005
Listing Date: 02/19/07
-5.7%

4422 FLINTSTONE RD
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22306
List Price: $449,950
Prior Sale: $459,000 10/03/2005
Listing Date: 03/18/07
-2.0%

13345 FONES PLZ
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $340,000
Prior Sale: $350,000 10/07/2005
Listing Date: 12/21/06
-2.9%

Weekend Warm Fuzzy Quotes

"Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a Darien, Conn. brokerage firm that specializes in overseas investments, said the consumer spending will not be able to continue due to the problems in the housing sector, the continue growth in the trade gap and the nation's negative savings rate, where consumers are consistantly spending more than their after-tax income.

'I think this report is even weaker than the numbers suggest," Schiff said. "Home equity loans have been financing all this consumer spending. We're just at the beginning of the housing slump. Housing is going to collapse, and when it does it's going to take the rest of the economy with it.'"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.
. . .
"The bursting of [this] bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high-grade bonds," Grantham warned. "Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity."

Prince William County Same-House Sales

18174 CAMDENHURST DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $459,900
Prior Sale: $703,000 05/17/06
Listing Date: 04/24/07
-34.6%

15268 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $459,900
Prior Sale: $645,000 8/8/2006
Listing Date: 04/26/07
-28.7%

8883 YELLOW HAMMER DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $539,900
Prior Sale: $678,965 1/3/2006
Listing Date: 04/26/07
-20.5%

9778 TOMBRECK CT
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $499,999 4/18/2005
Listing Date: 04/26/07
-20.0%

2260 FORT PICKENS CT
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $219,900
Prior Sale: $269,900 3/20/2006
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-18.5%

15260 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, 22191
List Price: $491,900
Prior Sale: $608,000 11/2/2005
Listing Date: 04/25/07
-19.1%

3048 PONY RIDGE TURN
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $369,000
Prior Sale: $438,900 9/1/2005
Listing Date: 04/25/07
-15.9%

8724 LORDS VIEW LOOP
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $533,900
Prior Sale: $630,000 2/11/2005
Listing Date: 04/23/07
-15.3%

3362 CROSSCUT LN
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $490,000
Prior Sale: $544,755 5/1/2006
Listing Date: 03/03/07
-10.1%

7308 SIDE BAY CT
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $569,900
Prior Sale: $625,000 12/2/2005
Listing Date: 04/25/07
-8.8%

Real Estate Live Discussion Today

Maryann Haggerty (WaPo Real Estate Editor) and Elizabeth Razzi (Staff Writer) will be online today at 1:00 pm for an online discussion of the Washington area housing market.

Submit questions here.

DC-Area House Prices Declined 4.33% in February

From the Washington Business Journal:

"A private industry survey shows home prices in February nationwide were down 1 percent, and the year-over-year decline in Washington was 4.33 percent.

The S&P/Case-Shiller report, which measures housing prices in the 20 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, indicates that price declines may be accelerating.
. . .
The S&P/Case-Shiller report also breaks down monthly price changes, and says home prices in Washington in February fell 0.5 percent from January."

From http://macromarkets.com:

"The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices use the "repeat sales method" of index calculation -- an approach that is widely recognized as the premier mothodology for indexing home prices -- which uses data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit."

"Case-Shiller's DC-VA-MD-WV MSA includes D.C, Calvert MD, Charles MD, Frederick MD, Montgomery MD, Prince Georges MD, Alexandria City VA, Arlington VA, Clarke VA, Fairfax VA, Fairfax City VA, Falls Church City VA, Fauquier VA, Fredericksburg City VA, Loudoun VA, Manassas City VA, Manassas Park City, VA, Prince William VA, Spotsylvania VA, Stafford VA, Warren VA, Jefferson WV."

Prognosticators and Their Predictions

From the Washington Post yesterday:

Lereah said that he originally expected the housing market to recover by this quarter but that he now believes it won't happen until summer. A full recovery, he said, will take place in 2008. "I expect a couple of more sluggish months coming," he said.

Others questioned that assessment. "Every bottom call up until this month has been wrong," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla. "There's no evidence in the numbers yet that the market is bottoming."

Larson said prices will continue to drop until the supply of homes decreases.
. . .
Sales tumbled in every part of the country. They fell 10.9 percent in the Midwest, 9.1 percent in the West and 8.2 percent in the Northeast. In the South, which includes the Washington region, sales dropped 6.2 percent.

Still, John McClain, a senior fellow at George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis, said the Washington region will probably snap back more quickly because of a healthy local economy. "I think we're in the beginnings of a recovery in this market," he said, "but I don't think we'll see it for a few months."

We'll keep watching carefully for the recovery, since this is only the beginning.

Here's a prior (PDF file) prediction of Mr. McClain's. (See pp. 28-29) :

Housing Outlook for 2006 and 2007

"Areas of region with more affordable housing will continue to have 15-20% increases in 2006 - Prince George's, Prince William, Spotsylvania".

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

722 STERLING BLVD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $500,000 11/22/05
Listing Date: 08/27/06
-20.0%

20980 KITTANNING LN
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $473,750 10/12/05
Listing Date: 04/22/07
-19.8%

16 LOVETT DR
LOVETTSVILLE, VA 20180
List Price: $485,000
Prior Sale: $595,000 10/19/2005
Listing Date: 04/10/07
-18.5%

524 LEGRACE TER
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $440,365 10/27/05
Listing Date: 04/25/07
-18.3%

23098 FONTWELL SQ #1406
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $340,000
Prior Sale: $406,000 9/9/05
Listing Date: 02/21/07
-16.3%

21716 KINGS CROSSING TER
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $382,500
Prior Sale: $449,900 06/01/05
Listing Date: 04/25/07
-15.0%

512 SKYLINE DR
PURCELLVILLE, VA 20132
List Price: $519,900
Prior Sale: $600,000 07/17/2006
Listing Date: 04/05/07
-13.35%

17 STOCKS ST
LOVETTSVILLE, VA 20180
List Price: $489,900
Prior Sale: $564,640 01/27/2006
Listing Date: 04/16/07
-13.2%

42451 ROCKROSE SQ #42451
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $335,000
Prior Sale: $385,000 8/1/06
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-13.0%

757 SUGARLAND RUN DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $280,000
Prior Sale: $321,800 04/14/2005
Listing Date: 04/10/07
-13.0%

192 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $320,000 08/31/05
Listing Date: 04/17/07
-12.5%

406 YORKSHIRE RIDGE CT
PURCELLVILLE, VA 20132
List Price: $369,999
Prior Sale: $416,000 4/1/05
Listing Date: 04/24/07
-11.1%

17943 MANASSAS GAP CT
HAMILTON, VA 20158
List Price: $699,900
Prior Sale: $774,077 01/30/2006
Listing Date: 04/18/07
-9.6%

21653 KINGS CROSSING TER
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $442,000 03/25/2005
Listing Date: 04/18/07
-9.5%

701 SMARTTS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $525,000
Prior Sale: $575,000 01/05/2005
Listing Date: 03/27/07
-8.7%

150 COTTAGE RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $299,000
Prior Sale: $323,000 11/29/2005
Listing Date: 12/07/06
-7.4%

223 HAWKS VIEW SQ SE
LEESBURG, 20175
List Price: $389,000
Prior Sale: $419,950 11/3/05
Listing Date: 04/21/07
-7.4%

17486 LETHRIDGE CIR
ROUND HILL, VA 20141
List Price: $529,900
Prior Sale: $570,200 12/27/2005
Listing Date: 04/15/07
-7.1%

44312 NAVAJO DR
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $595,000
Prior Sale: $640,000 03/03/2006
Listing Date: 04/06/07
-7.0%

868 SMARTTS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $319,900
Prior Sale: $344,000 10/16/2006
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-7.0%

42002 KUDU CT
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $814,900
Prior Sale: $875,000 08/01/2005
Listing Date: 04/11/07
-6.9%

622 GREYSANDS LN
PURCELLVILLE, VA 20132
List Price: $484,900
Prior Sale: $500,000 03/09/2007 [Region's Bank]
Listing Date: 04/05/07
-3.02%

766 SUGARLAND RUN DR S
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $441,750
Prior Sale: $460,000 09/29/05
Listing Date: 02/23/07
-4.0%

25804 KAISER PL
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $629,000
Prior Sale: $640,000 09/30/2004
Listing Date: 04/07/07
-1.7%

445 SUGARLAND RUN DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $395,000
Prior Sale: $398,900 12/17/2004
Listing Date: 04/09/07
-1.0%

629 GREYSANDS LN
PURCELLVILLE, VA 20132
List Price: $468,000
Prior Sale: $468,152 12/20/2004
Listing Date: 03/30/07
+0.03%

Foreclosures Up, New Home Sales Down YOY

"RealtyTrac(TM) (http://www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released first-quarter data from its 2007 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, showing more than 430,000 foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- reported nationwide during the first three months of the year, up 27 percent from
the previous quarter and up 35 percent from the first quarter of 2006. The nation's quarterly foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 264 households was the highest quarterly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing its report 27 months ago".

Q1 2007 Foreclosures from RealtyTrac
State/MSA	Jan	Feb	March	Q1 Total
Virginia	702	718	1,054	2,474
Washington/Arlington/ Alexandria, VA	798	662	1,212	2,672
State/MSA	1 for every #HH	% Change from Q4 2006	% Change from Q1 2006	Rate Rank
Virginia	1,167	119	138.34	39
Washington/Arlington/ Alexandria, VA	563	261	304.33	80

"WASHINGTON -- Sales of new homes rebounded slightly in March, helped by better weather, but the gain was not enough to offset big declines in the previous two months.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new home sales rose 2.6 percent in March compared with February, when new home sales had plunged to the lowest level in nearly seven years. New homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 858,000 units in March.

The March improvement was just half what analysts had expected and still left the sales pace 23.5 percent lower than a year ago as the housing industry continues to go through a painful adjustment after an extended boom period.

The report on new home sales followed a report Tuesday that sales of existing homes, by far the larger part of the sales market, had fallen 8.4 percent in March, the biggest decline in 18 years."

Fraud for Housing

A few months ago, a Pulte saleswoman called me. She was a smooth talker - she used the "crystal ball" term you hear a lot from Maryann Haggerty at the Washington Post. She said that no one knows where the real estate market will be a year from now. And to some extent, I agree that there are always unknowns in life. But I told her that I was fairly certain that we would see a "different" market in the coming months in which foreclosures would set the tone, simply because lending was too unregulated.

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Cheating on mortgage applications is so widespread and so seldom punished that it's fueling an increase in foreclosures that will prolong the housing slump, said Robert W. Russell, counsel to the director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, which oversees savings and loans.

Borrowers and brokers commit fraud when they exaggerate the applicant's income, qualifying the borrower for a home he otherwise couldn't afford. Such fraud robbed lenders of an estimated $1 billion last year, according to data collected by the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
. . .
A 2006 study cited by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute showed that almost 60 percent of stated income loans were exaggerated by at least 50 percent.

`Liar Loans'

``Everyone calls these loans `liar loans' because we know these people were lying,'' said Jim Croft, a spokesman at the Reston, Virginia-based Mortgage Asset Research Institute.
. . .
Mortgage fraud complaints more than doubled in the U.S. from 2003 to 2006, according to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a division of the U.S. Treasury Department. Suspicious activity reports pertaining to mortgage fraud increased 14-fold from 1997 to 2005, according to the organization.

There is a pattern of ``exaggerated or fabricated income information associated with subprime loans,'' the Vienna, Virginia-based enforcement network said in a report in November.

The difficulty in calculating mortgage fraud is only one- third of lenders are required to report suspicious behavior, said Mortgage Bankers Association spokesman John Mechem.

The FBI targets what it calls ``fraud for profit,'' which is related to conspirators who lie to get multiple mortgages and have no intention of repaying them, said Special Agent Stephen Kodak in Washington.
. . .
Individuals lying about their income to buy a house they intend to live in, or ``fraud for housing,'' occurs more often but accounts for less money lost, Kodak said. The FBI generally does not go after ``fraud for housing,'' he said.

Yet many ``fraud for housing'' schemes end up as ``fraud for profit'' conspiracies, said David McLaughlin, head prosecutor for the Georgia attorney general.

``Even the most benign-looking fraud can have far-reaching consequences,'' McLaughlin said. ``Those properties will fall into foreclosure and there's a risk when you have a fraud scenario and the person is in so far over their heads, those are the prime targets for fraud-for-profit criminals to prey on.''

McLaughlin said his priority is ``fraud for profit'' cases, though he would like to prosecute homebuyers who lie on their mortgage applications.
. . .
``When everyone was eating up the subprime market, it was great to be in the business,'' said Josh Tullis, sales director for A. Anderson Scott Mortgage Group in Falls Church, Virginia. ``In the heyday, I knew guys who went from making $2,000 a month working 60 hours a week at McDonald's and they'd come over here and work 15 hours on a loan and make $4,000.''

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

2944 JERMANTOWN RD #6
OAKTON, VA 22124
List Price: $271,900
Prior Sale: $414,900 05/06/2005
Listing Date: 04/23/07
-34.5%

3820 LIGHTFOOT ST #318
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $284,900
Prior Sale: $430,000 11/22/2005
Listing Date: 03/17/07
-33.7%

5031 COOL FOUNTAIN LN
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $424,990
Prior Sale: $540,000 10/11/2005
Listing Date: 02/07/07
-21.3%

6309 HIBBLING AVE
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $434,900
Prior Sale: $550,000 03/01/2006
Listing Date: 04/19/07
-20.9%

6401 MAY BLVD
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $549,900
Prior Sale: $660,000 07/19/2005
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-16.7%

2804 SCHOOL ST
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303
List Price: $433,350
Prior Sale: $520,000 04/13/2006
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-16.7%

4410 GALESBURY LN
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $584,900
Prior Sale: $700,000 10/20/2005
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-16.4%

7311 WAYNE DR
ANNANDALE, VA 22003
List Price: $494,900
Prior Sale: $580,000 06/02/2005
Listing Date: 04/23/07
-14.7%

5803 ROYAL RIDGE DR #F
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22152
List Price: $207,000
Prior Sale: $240,000 09/21/2005
Listing Date: 01/14/07
-13.8%

12949 RIDGEMIST LN
FAIRFAX, VA 22033
List Price: $373,000
Prior Sale: $430,000 10/12/2005
Listing Date: 12/02/06
-13.3%

3850 LIGHTFOOT ST #156
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $274,900
Prior Sale: $295,595 05/02/2006
Listing Date: 03/29/07
-7.0%

12120 GARDEN RIDGE LN #302
FAIRFAX, VA 22030
List Price: $280,000
Prior Sale: $298,900 03/13/2006
Listing Date: 03/10/07
-6.3%

13505 PRAIRIE MALLOW LN
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $489,500
Prior Sale: $520,000 02/15/2006
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-5.9%

5098 VILLAGE FOUNTAIN PL
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $420,000
Prior Sale: $439,900 11/05/2004
Listing Date: 04/16/07
-4.3%

5071 VILLAGE FOUNTAIN PL
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $469,900
Prior Sale: $490,000 06/15/2004
Listing Date: 03/30/07
-4.1%

11320 ARISTOTLE DR #4-208
FAIRFAX, VA 22030
List Price: $277,000
Prior Sale: $287,855 01/04/2006
Listing Date: 02/01/07
-3.8%

Prince William County Same-House Sales

8407 AUBREY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $346,500
Prior Sale: $475,000 11/1/2005
Listing Date: 04/19/07
-27.1%

13011 KIDWELL DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $314,900
Prior Sale: $400,000 10/27/2005
Listing Date: 04/16/07
-21.3%

2055 JENNINGS ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $540,000
Prior Sale: $685,000 4/10/2006
Listing Date: 04/17/07
-21.2%

6800 COACH WAY
HAYMARKET, VA 20169
List Price: $470,000
Prior Sale: $577,000 3/29/2006
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-18.5%

12900 KINGSWELL DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $304,900
Prior Sale: $370,000 12/6/2005
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-17.6%

1400 COTTONWOOD CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $296,556 2/20/2007
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-15.7%

7906 AUGUSTA RD
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $341,900
Prior Sale: $382,000 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 04/21/07
-10.5%

18111 CAMDENHURST DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $639,500
Prior Sale: $700,350 9/29/2005
Listing Date: 03/09/07
-8.7%

18234 CAMDENHURST DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $419,000
Prior Sale: $453,702 6/24/2005
Listing Date: 01/08/07
-7.6%

12830 HYANNIS LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $339,000
Prior Sale: $366,000 10/31/2006
Listing Date: 03/20/07
-7.4%

1641 LADUE CT #102
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $334,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 10/24/2005
Listing Date: 04/20/07
-7.0%

16200 CUTTER WAY
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $610,000
Prior Sale: $647,054 3/27/2006
Listing Date: 10/25/06
-5.7%

1826 TIGER LILY CIR #27
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $274,900
Prior Sale: $270,000 8/14/2006
Listing Date: 04/09/07
+1.81%

A Local Homebuilder Reports Earnings

From Briefing.com

NVR Inc. (NVR 797.00), one of the nation's largest homebuilding and mortgage banking companies, reported a 36% decline in first quarter earnings, due to lower revenue and continued pricing pressure in many of its markets. The results beat analysts' expectations, however.
. . .
New orders during the quarter rose 8% to 3,917 units, driven by strong demand in the Mid Atlantic and Mid East regions, which increased 18% and 11%, respectively. However, the company noted that the Mid Atlantic region, which includes Washington, DC and Baltimore, slowed noticeably toward the end of the quarter, after starting off strong. The cancellation rate in the quarter was 16%, compared to 17% in the same period last year and 20% in the fourth quarter.

And a local Fool reports her weekend market observation:

On Sunday, I was driving in my own neighborhood and noticed a real estate agent taking care of those balloons they put in front of neighborhoods where an open house is being held. He had a pen or other such implement and appeared to be angrily stabbing at the balloons to pop them. (The best way I can describe the motion is to mention the shower scene in Psycho.)

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

21155 PON FARR CT
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $529,900
Prior Sale: $690,000 03/01/2006
Listing Date: 04/18/07
-23.2%

44502 POTTER TER
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $334,900
Prior Sale: $436,000 09/01/05
Listing Date: 04/11/07
-23.2%

713 EMERALD HILL DR NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $540,900
Prior Sale: $679,990 10/01/05
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-20.5%

714 EMERALD HILL DR NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $649,900
Prior Sale: $730,000 12/20/2005
Listing Date: 03/20/07
-20.5%

1302 IBERIA RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $398,900
Prior Sale: $489,900 09/30/2005
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-18.6%

410 CORNELL DR #250
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $234,900
Prior Sale: $275,000 07/01/2005
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-14.6%

21074 MOSSY GLEN TER
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $384,900
Prior Sale: $410,711 10/17/2006
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-6.3%

Builders, Incentives, and Builder's Lenders

Last Monday this blog discussed recent local builder incentives, and of course they are always based on using the builder's lender. The Washington Post this morning has a fairly decent article discussing the pros and cons of accepting the incentives with this criteria.

Builders can't force you to use any particular lender; federal law prohibits it. Nor can they dictate whom you must use for other settlement services, such as the title company or homeowner's insurance provider. (Lenders can choose who will perform the appraisal.)

Builders' incentives these days can be worth tens of thousands of dollars. Just last week, Fairfax-based Brookfield Homes mailed a flier to my home (or to the "current resident") touting as much as $100,000 in incentives on its single-family houses in Virginia. Among the incentives "current resident" could choose were financing at 1.5 percent interest, two years of paid homeowners association dues or upgrades such as a finished basement or finer floor coverings.

Hmm . . . that's the builder example I used on Monday. They must have a good marketing campaign.

. . . Lenders who specialize in new-home loans are used to dealing with the uncertain timetables associated with construction. On average, nine months pass between the loan application and delivery of the finished home, according to Tyrie. . . What if interest rates blip up to a level you cannot afford? For a fee, Wells Fargo allows borrowers to lock in their interest rate for as long as two years, awaiting delivery of their new home. (Other lenders who cater to the new construction market offer similar deals.) That kind of interest-rate protection is an important benefit if you have a contract to buy a property with an uncertain delivery date.

I wondered about the subject of interest rate risk when I found out that Toll Brothers' Warrenton development will start accepting contracts this Spring, but will delay building the houses for nearly two years. (They need to complete a water plant for the subdivision).

Foreclosures Update

Foreclosures update from www.foreclosure.com.

"Active" Foreclosures 04/20/2007

Arlington: 9
Fairfax: 139
Loudoun: 97
Prince William: 184
Frederick: 22
Fauquier: 10
Culpeper: 14
Stafford: 35

"Active" Foreclosures 04/09/2007

Arlington: 8
Fairfax: 183
Loudoun: 116
Prince William: 255
Frederick: 24
Fauquier: 11
Culpeper: 18
Stafford: 51

Losing Money Fast

Finally, they're starting to sit up and take notice. From page A01 of the Washington Post today.

(By Nancy Trejo -- The Washington Post)

Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it because they are getting divorced and neither one can afford the mortgage alone.

The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.

A nontraditional mortgage and a prepayment penalty mean Kimberly Pexton and her husband will owe $28,000 at closing.

"Five months later, I lose $100,000," Taylor, a high school teacher, said. "I don't think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster."

This is the danger of too much leverage. In the stock market, you would have needed a large down payment to buy pets.com.

Such a scenario, known as a short sale, was unthinkable during the real estate boom of recent years. In the course of five months, a person could buy and sell a property and walk away with tens of thousands of dollars. Now, instead of receiving large checks at the settlement table, many sellers are writing them.

"It was unheard of three years ago," said Kevin Connelly, a mortgage banker for Pinnacle Financial in Vienna. "Everyone was doubling their money, and suddenly the tide has turned."

It started to turn in the autumn of 2005. Most pundits were saying it was Hurricane Katrina fallout. That was the best excuse ever.

One of those consequences could be blemished credit. Taylor is willing to take that hit.

Even if he and his wife had not decided to divorce, they were not happy with their mortgage. They were not paying down the loan at all because it was an interest-only loan.

With an annual salary of $70,000, he does not have enough money for his share of the amount he and his wife will end up owing the bank. So he has asked the bank to forgive the debt, despite the tax implications. If the bank chooses to demand a check, he said he would take out another loan to cover it.

"This has destroyed me," he said.

I hope Taylor can find some hope and courage, and with the blessing of time find his way. He will have discovered wisdom to help others.

Past Performance vs. Future Results

From last Friday's "Real Estate Chat" with Maryann Haggerty, the Washington Post's Real Estate Editor.

Arlington, Va.: I know you like to say that you don't have a crystal ball, and I respect that, b/c none of us do. There has been a lot in the news this week about the mortgage mess and how prices are going to drop, etc. I know that prices have dropped before (in the mid 90s), but have prices ever dropped 30-40 percent in history? A lot of prognosticators are saying that when all is said and done, prices will have dropped 30-40 percent from the peak 2005 prices. Is this in any way realistic do you think?

For some background, we were ready in 2004 to buy a house, but we got out bid on every house we put an offer on (one in 2004 and two in 2006). We are now very glad that we didn't buy, and as far as I'm concerned, we can wait some more (and save more for a down payment while we're waiting) but I just don't know if the 30-40 percent drops are possible.

Maryann Haggerty: Maybe during the Great Depression. But no study either one of the two of us has ever seen has found a prolonged drop that steep, even in California in the early '90s...

Now, an individual house, that's another story. If you overpaid for it, it could very well drop a lot.

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

7908 MARTHA WASHINGTON ST [Unfinished]
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $372,750
Prior Sale: $600,000 02/09/2006
Listing Date: 04/16/07
-37.9%

2307 OLD TRAIL DR
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $510,000 11/14/2005
Listing Date: 01/11/07
-31.4%

6028 CHESTNUT HOLLOW CT
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $284,900
Prior Sale: $355,000 08/17/2005
Listing Date: 04/16/07
-19.7%

6909 FARRAGUT AVE
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $350,000
Prior Sale: $429,000 06/01/2006
List Date: 02/12/2007
-18.4%

3820 LIGHTFOOT STREET #418
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $280,000
Prior Sale: $340,250 09/01/2005
Listing Date: 02/07/07
-17.7%

3830 LIGHTFOOT ST #237
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $292,900
Prior Sale: $355,240 11/07/2005
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-17.5%

2216 COCQUINA DR
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $349,000
Prior Sale: $405,000 04/14/2006
Listing Date: 12/29/06
-13.8%

7316 INZER ST
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22151
List Price: $469,900
Prior Sale: $515,000 08/08/2005
Listing Date: 04/16/07
-8.8%

12618 PINECREST RD
HERNDON, VA 20171
List Price: $435,000
Prior Sale: $475,000 06/30/2005
Listing Date: 04/10/07
-8.4%

3850 LIGHTFOOT ST #156
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $274,900
Prior Sale: $295,595 05/02/2006
Listing Date: 03/29/07
-7%

5679 GENERAL JOHNSTON PL
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $689,000
Prior Sale: $739,110 06/02/2005
Listing Date: 03/30/07
-6.8%

12165 SANIBEL CT
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $310,000 11/23/2005
Listing Date: 02/23/07
-3.3%

5681 GENERAL JOHNSTON PL
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $650,000
Prior Sale: $656,537 05/05/2005
Listing Date: 03/06/07
-1%

12177 SANIBEL CT
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $317,000 05/13/2005
Listing Date: 04/12/07
+2.49%

9937 HILL DR E
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $789,900
Prior Sale: $776,450 08/25/2005
Listing Date: 07/26/06
+1.73%

Prince William County Same-House Sales

9701 LAFAYETTE AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $259,900
Prior Sale: $450,000 4/10/2006
Listing Date: 04/14/07
-42.2%

9444 LAFAYETTE AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $279,000
Prior Sale: $379,000 9/7/2006
Listing Date: 03/21/07
-26.4%

10559 ANDREW HUMPHREYS CT
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $539,900
Prior Sale: $690,000 9/6/2006
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-21.8%

1977 DARLINGTON LOOP
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $261,900
Prior Sale: $332,000 12/19/2005
Listing Date: 01/28/07
-21.1%

17004 LOFTRIDGE LN
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $462,900
Prior Sale: $565,000 9/26/2005
Listing Date: 01/05/07
-18.1%

16549 RESERVOIR LOOP
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $445,999
Prior Sale: $538,790 1/4/2006
Listing Date: 04/16/07
-17.2%

9714 LAFAYETTE AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $315,990
Prior Sale: $369,000 4/21/2005
Listing Date: 03/20/07
-14.4%

9603 BONAIR DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $389,900
Prior Sale: $453,000 6/26/2006
Listing Date: 03/26/07
-13.9%

16131 SHERINGHAM WAY
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $499,900
Prior Sale: $576,200 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 04/02/07
-13.2%

6720 ELDERMILL LN
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $422,900
Prior Sale: $467,360 7/30/2004
Listing Date: 01/28/07
-9.5%

13641 NEWTONMORE PL
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $611,000
Prior Sale: $667,390 9/1/2005
Listing Date: 02/19/07
-8.4%

8922 LIBERTY RIDGE PL
NOKESVILLE, VA 20181
List Price: $1,279,888
Prior Sale: $1,369,698 12/27/2005
Listing Date: 02/23/07
-6.6%

New Home Incentives Du Jour

I'd like to start mentioning local new home incentives, as Northern VA works through its 40K plus inventory of new homes. Feel free to contribute any that you've found recently.

Brookfield Washington Homes (PDF file) says:

Write Your Own Check! New Home Savings Event.
Let Brookfield Homes write a check for up to $50,000 with your choice of mix-and-match incentives*

- Live free for up to 6 months!
- Closing cost assistance!
- YCI (Your Choice Included) options!
- Special 1.5% financing!
- Free Homeowners Assocation dues for 2 years!
- $99 moves you in!

The exclamation points are part of the ad. My, aren't they exciting!!

Stafford County March Sales and Same-House Sales

A Decade of March Sales

Stafford County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 132 1,494 11.32 $364,000 2006 181 1,173 6.48 $370,000 2005 276 284 1.03 $349,950 2004 186 283 1.52 $232,450 2003 165 420 2.55 $225,000 2002 142 377 2.65 $187,650 2001 150 421 2.81 $165,560 2000 111 498 4.49 $135,000 1999 115 632 5.50 $157,590 1998 93 787 8.46 $140,000 1997 65 888 13.66 $126,900

Same-House Sales

39 TURNSTONE CT [Fixtures Removed]
STAFFORD, VA 22556
List Price: $536,900
Prior Sale: $825,400.00 11/29/2006 BANK OF NEW YORK
Prior Sale: $910,950.00 9/2/2005
Listing Date: 03/26/07
-41.1%

36 CARLSBAD DR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $374,900
Prior Sale: $411,382 9/12/2006 BANK OF NY
Prior Sale: $493,000 2/28/2006
Listing Date: 02/10/07
-24%

101 SANDPIPER TER
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $334,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 1/31/2007 LASALLE BANK
Prior Sale: $431,745 12/7/2005
Listing Date: 02/21/07
-22.4%

44 RAVENWOOD DR
FREDERICKSBURG, VA 22406
List Price: $144,900
Prior Sale: $144,890 9/12/2006 LASALLE BANK
Prior Sale: $175,900 3/29/2004
-17.6%

9 LYNCHESTER DR
FREDERICKSBURG, VA 22406
List Price: $377,900
Prior Sale: $379,940 1/23/2007 JP MORGAN CHASE BANK
Prior Sale: $454,000 5/23/2005
Listing Date: 03/02/07
-16.8%

112 DOUGLAS DR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $467,080 11/28/2005
Listing Date: 12/02/06
-14.4%

124 COUNTRY MANOR DR
FREDERICKSBURG, VA 22406
List Price: $544,900
Prior Sale: $633,000.00 2/28/2006
Listing Date: 03/23/07
-13.9%

111 DOUGLAS DR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $463,215 8/24/2005
Listing Date: 04/06/07
-13.7%

3024 CRUISER DR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $383,900
Prior Sale: $442,900 11/29/2006 JP MORGAN CHASE
Listing Date: 02/20/07
-13.3%

109 SCARSDALE DR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $349,900
List Price: $318,750 1/22/2007 WELLS FARGO BANK
Prior Sale: $395,500 8/1/2005
Listing Date: 11/24/06
-11.5%

409 DONELSON LOOP
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $327,000.00 6/15/2006
Listing Date: 04/03/07
-8.3%

305 ROYCE CT
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $289,500
Prior Sale: $257,000.00 3/2/2007 FEDERAL NAT'L MTG
Prior Sale: $310,000.00 8/18/2005
-6.6%

55 AMSONIA CT
STAFFORD, VA 22556
List Price: $459,900
Prior Sale: $486,955.00 10/24/2006
Listing Date: 03/12/07
-5.6%

8 CHESTNUT DR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $280,000
Prior Sale: $289,900 11/29/2005
Listing Date: 03/12/07
-3.4%

200 BRAEMAR PL
FREDERICKSBURG, VA 22405
List Price: $278,500
Prior Sale: $265,146.00 2/20/2007 WELLS FARGO BANK
Prior Sale: $281,900.00 6/29/2005
-1.2%

198 EXECUTIVE CIR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $375,931.00 7/11/2005
Listing Date: 04/04/07
+1.06%

17 COUNTRY MANOR DR
FREDERICKSBURG, VA 22406
List Price: $449,000
Prior Sale: $429,900.00 2/28/2005
Listing Date: 03/31/07
+4.4%

84 COUNTRY MANOR DR
FREDERICKSBURG, VA 22406
List Price: $499,900
Prior Sale: $470,000.00 2/22/2005
Listing Date: 03/22/07
+6.4%

195 EXECUTIVE CIR
STAFFORD, VA 22554
List Price: $389,000
Prior Sale: $355,535 7/5/2005
Listing Date: 03/19/07
+9.41%

310 FALKIRK CT
FREDERICKSBURG, VA 22406
List Price: $269,900
Prior Sale: $191,000 5/3/2005
Listing Date: 10/04/06 ($309,900)
+41.31%

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

400 BRETHOUR CT #85
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $240,000
Prior Sale: $324,000 09/14/2005
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-25.9%

43514 HUBBARD SQ
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $453,250
Prior Sale: $565,000 11/17/2005
Listing Date: 04/08/07
-19.8%

1069 TOTTENHAM CT #101
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $309,900
Prior Sale: $355,000 10/01/05
Listing Date: 04/13/07
-12.7%

22917 REGENT TER
STERLING, VA 20166
List Price: $375,000
Prior Sale: $425,000 09/02/2005
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-11.8%

42992 CENTER ST
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $345,500
Prior Sale: $369,900 10/28/2004
Listing Date: 04/12/07
-6.6%

217 PENNY LN
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $410,000
Prior Sale: $430,000 04/25/2005
Listing Date: 01/19/07
-4.7%

42697 CENTER ST
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $514,900
Prior Sale: $504,500 10/12/2004
Listing Date: 04/12/07
+2.1%

A Glut of New Houses

The Washington Post is finally going to provide weekly updates (on Sundays) on the regional housing market. They're also encouraging questions and comments.

Here are some excerpts from today's issue:

There are 40,409 new, single-family houses on the market in the Maryland and Virginia suburbs, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a construction-industry research company. That doesn't include condominiums, which are certainly in flush supply, or even townhouses. And nearly one-third of that unsold inventory sits in just two jurisdictions, Prince George's and Loudoun counties.

"Builders and developers have more inventory than they've had in recent memory, at least in a decade," said Charles Browning, publisher of New Homes Guide, an advertising magazine distributed free to home shoppers. (The magazine is published by a subsidiary of The Washington Post Co.)
. . .
Until this backlog of unsold new homes is cleared, it will remain a tough market for owners trying to sell their gently used homes.

Renting From The Bank

Seth Jayson is a D.C. local "Fool" whose column always makes me smile:

It's still a bit of New York Times naivete, brimming with statements like this one: "Most striking, perhaps, is the fact that prices may not yet have fallen far enough for buying to look better than renting today ..."

How is that striking? Home prices have gone through an unprecedented bubble. Rents have not. Unless housing prices tumble very quickly, it will be years before buying is smarter than renting, especially in a bizarre market like the one around Washington D.C., where a run-down, 700-square-foot, 1950s crackerbox goes for $450,000.

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

3119 PATRICK HENRY DR #437
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22044
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $340,000 01/06/2006
Listing Date: 04/10/07
-14.7%

4015 RONSON DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $429,900
Prior Sale: $492,000 07/05/2006
Listing Date: 04/08/07
-12.6%

614 UPHAM PL NW,
VIENNA, VA 22180
List Price: $709,900
Prior Sale: $800,000 12/27/2005
Listing Date: 03/08/07
-11.3%

855 DOGWOOD CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $299,500
Prior Sale: $335,000 05/24/2005
Listing Date: 04/01/07
-10.6%

13143 MARCEY CREEK RD #13143
HERNDON, VA 20171
List Price: $332,900
Prior Sale: $340,000 03/12/2007 OHIO SAVINGS BANK
Prior Sale: $364,610 04/01/2005
Listing Date: 04/04/07
-8.7%

13954 GUNNERS PL
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $298,322 01/16/2007 FEDERAL NTN'L MTG
Prior Sale: $352,000 03/28/2006
Listing Date: 02/13/07
-7.7%

3109 PATRICK HENRY DR ##636
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22044
List Price: $285,000
Prior Sale: $280,000 02/01/2005
Listing Date: 04/12/07
+1.8%

Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance

In a column written today by Caroline Baum at Bloomberg, she employs several quotes from Andy Laperriere. He's one of our D.C.-area locals whom some may remember as the author of an article in The Weekly Standard one year ago called "Housing Bubble Trouble -- Have we been living beyond our means?" 04/10/2006, Volume 011, Issue 28.

Caroline Baum's column is entitled "Housing Bubble Accomplices Preparing for Death." She talks about current housing bubble participants experiencing "denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance."

First came denial: It isn't a bubble. Banks don't have any exposure to mortgages. Housing is a small sector of the economy. Subprime mortgages are a small segment of the home-loan market.
. . .
Soon the anger set in. Delinquency and foreclosure rates rose. Everyone was shocked, shocked to learn there was risk in risky loans. The press bombarded us daily with tales of shady lenders preying on victimized homeowners who would soon be out on the street for non-payment of mortgage interest.

No one was more upset than our elected representatives. Congress wants blood. Whose is irrelevant.

``Members of Congress want someone to be accountable for sensible lending,'' says Andy Laperriere, a managing director at the ISI Group in Washington.
. . .
It would seem a lot easier to fix the problem at the source, tightening regulations on the lenders themselves.

But hey, we still have two final stages of dying before the bubble is fully exorcised: depression and acceptance. If Congress follows through on its legislative reforms of the subprime market, the housing recession may turn into a depression. If that happens, can the rest of us find acceptance?"

A Decade of March Sales

Arlington County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 263 858 3.26 $469,900 2006 248 936 3.77 $470,000 2005 236 249 1.05 $463,756 2004 281 206 0.73 $390,000 2003 250 332 1.33 $336,500 2002 225 236 1.05 $313,000 2001 234 291 1.2 $235,000 2000 239 344 1.4 $215,000 1999 241 638 2.6 $182,000 1998 208 N/A N/A $204,500 Alexandria City Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 186 849 4.56 $479,500 2006 206 941 4.57 $445,000 2005 302 209 0.69 $405,000 2004 263 164 0.62 $300,000 2003 251 267 1.06 $279,000 2002 220 174 0.79 $216,050 2001 253 309 1.22 $191,900 2000 202 422 2.09 $189,900 1999 194 727 3.75 $196,250 1998 159 N/A N/A $198,500 Fairfax County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 1,261 6,183 4.90 $456,000 2006 1,386 6,542 4.72 $477,000 2005 1,675 1,534 0.92 $441,100 2004 1,726 1,568 0.91 $360,000 2003 1,550 2,881 1.86 $289,900 2002 1,625 1,989 1.22 $269,990 2001 1,534 2,459 1.60 $230,000 2000 1,440 2,746 1.91 $195,000 1999 1,451 4,842 3.34 $189,000 1998 1,281 N/A N/A $184,600 Loudoun County Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 440 3,254 7.39 $447,450 2006 552 3,735 6.77 $503,500 2005 698 930 1.34 $450,500 2004 549 1,019 1.86 $352,000 2003 546 1,575 2.89 $275,000 2002 493 1,300 2.64 $247,000 2001 473 1,009 2.13 $228,691 2000 373 885 2.37 $195,000 1999 318 1,285 4.04 $180,750 1998 233 1,638 7.03 $173,500 1997 152 1,590 10.46 $166,250 Prince William County & Manassas Year Sales Active Listings Ratio Median Sold Price 2007 471 5,137 10.91 $370,000 2006 800 4,439 5.55 $385,000 2005 1,115 983 0.88 $345,000 2004 916 921 1.01 $257,250 2003 724 1,427 1.97 $206,250 2002 691 1,016 1.47 $177,500 2001 696 1,082 1.55 $154,386 2000 563 1,427 2.53 $127,500 1999 403 2,055 5.1 $126,500 1998 363 2,634 7.26 $127,500 1997 262 2,877 10.98 $125,700

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems

Need A Refi?

$1 Billion Pledged to Help Fend Off Foreclosures
Advocacy Group to Refinance Mortgages of Those Stung by Subprime Loans

By Dina ElBoghdady and Nell Henderson
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, April 12, 2007; Page D01

"Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, an 18-year-old housing advocacy group, yesterday announced it would commit $1 billion to refinancing the loans of lower-income people at risk of losing their homes.

The financing will come from CitiGroup and Bank of America, which have been lending money for years to borrowers screened by the nonprofit group. NACA, of Boston, said it had helped put 50,000 people in homes since its creation."
...

"Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, recently culled data collected by Equifax, one of the nation's major credit bureaus. He found that 2.87 percent of residential mortgages were at least 30 days delinquent as of the last week of March. That's the highest rate since the two companies began collecting the data in 2000. The Mortgage Bankers Association has found the rate is considerably higher for subprime loans, exceeding 13 percent in the most recent survey."

Don't Look If You Have High Blood Pressure

Schumer Calls for New Federal Housing Aid As Realty Group Sees Prices Falling, Slump Worsening

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Amid new signs that the housing slump is worsening, key Senate Democrats said Wednesday that hundreds of millions of dollars of new federal aid may be needed to assist homeowners at risk of foreclosure.

The call for federal involvement from New York Democrat Charles Schumer, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, came on the same day the National Association of Realtors forecast that the median price for existing homes will decline for the first time since 1968 as a sales slump worsens.

"We will be proposing significant amounts of dollars," Schumer told reporters after being asked if a large federal bailout may be needed.

Questions:

1. Didn't these FB's ("Failed" Borrowers) already get their tax break for owning over renting?
2. Will these "significant amounts of dollars" be paid for by those who have been saving and waiting patiently to be able to afford a home without exotic lending?
3. Can I get bailed out for my pets.com fiasco?

March Sales

Arlington County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $143,291,295; $139,391,599 2.80%
Median Sold Price: $469,900; $470,000 -0.02%
Total Units Sold: 263, 248 6.05%

Alexandria City 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $97,715,939; $100,961,184 -3.21%
Median Sold Price: $479,500; $445,000 7.75%
Total Units Sold: 186, 206 -9.71%

Fairfax County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $667,550,650; $743,198,826 -10.18%
Median Sold Price: $456,000; $477,000 -4.40%
Total Units Sold: 1,261, 1,386 -9.02%

Loudoun County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $225,748,881; $300,020,320 -24.76%
Median Sold Price: $447,450; $503,500 -11.13%
Total Units Sold: 440, 552 -20.29%

Prince William County 2007, 2006
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $170,783,920; $305,187,841 -44.04%
Median Sold Price: $389,450; $395,000 -1.41%
Total Units Sold: 418, 699 -40.20%

Also, some highlights from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® for March:

Greater Northern Virginia: March 2007

Sales activity in Greater Northern Virginia (NVAR jurisdictions plus Prince William, Loudoun and the Greater Piedmont counties) for March 2007 reflects a slightly greater dip comparatively.

Greater Northern Virginia sales data shows a slight lag in market activity, as a higher inventory and lower demand in further-out suburbs have slowed the sales pace compared to the core Northern Virginia region. The average sales price of $497,666 in March 2007 was 1.10 percent less than the March 2006 average sales price of $503,200.

The number of Greater Northern Virginia region units sold in March was 2,826, nearly a 17 percent decline from the 3,392 houses that sold in March 2006.

Across Greater Northern Virginia, 18,528 listings are active on the market, about 0.5 percent (that is, one-half of 1 percent) more than this time last year, when 18,444 homes were available. The average number of days on the market for a home sold in March 2007 was 113, which is about 78 percent higher than the DOM of 64 days one year ago.

Prince William County Same-House Sales

8614 LINTON HALL RD
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $250,000
Prior Sale: $294,249 9/14/2006 DEUTSCHE BANK
Prior Sale: $349,500 6/10/2005
Listing Date: 10/14/06
-28.5%

16884 WINSTON LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $315,000
Prior Sale: $392,000 12/2/2005
Listing Date: 03/13/07
-19.6%

6181 TOLEDO PL
HAYMARKET, VA 20169
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $492,500 7/8/2005
Listing Date: 04/05/07
-18.8%

14486 BRENTWOOD CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $299,950 6/23/2006
Listing Date: 02/10/07
-16.7%

15453 WINDSONG LN
DUMFRIES, VA 22025
List Price: $286,900
Prior Sale: $280,789 2/7/2007 BANK OF NY
Prior Sale: $332,000 6/27/2005
Listing Date: 04/06/07
-13.6%

8004 GRACIE DR
MANASSAS, VA 20112
List Price: $397,700
Prior Sale: $440,000 10/14/2005
Listing Date: 03/23/07
-9.6%

4113 CHURCHMAN WAY #1-6
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $289,000
Prior Sale: $297,000 5/6/2005
Listing Date: 02/22/07
-2.7%

10046 PENTLAND HILLS WAY
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $454,900
Prior Sale: $460,000 10/21/2004
Listing Date: 04/09/07
-1.1%

17612 OVERLOOK RD
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $512,900
Prior Sale: $515,000 4/12/2005
Listing Date: 04/07/07
-0.4%

Housing Boom Tied To Mortgage Fraud

From page A1 of the Washington Post today:

Many experts have concluded that the nation's real estate boom of recent years was fueled in part by weakened lending standards that sparked excessive demand and drove up prices. Now, some are worried that the looser standards may have permitted a boom of another kind -- a big expansion of mortgage fraud.

No one knows exactly how extensive the crime has become, but new data from the federal government suggest that it has jumped tenfold since 2000. Prosecutors are finding cases all over the country in which sham transactions, based on fraudulent appraisals, led to homes changing hands at far above their real value. Mortgage lenders failed to carry out the most elementary safeguards.

Will Spring's Bungee Recover Its Bounce?

These are statistics (from MRIS) for Fairfax County, from March of 2007 and prior years.

Year: 2007
Sales: 1,261
Active Listings: 6,183

Year: 2006
Sales: 1,386
Active Listings: 6,542

Year: 2005
Sales: 1,675
Active Listings: 1,534

Year: 2004
Sales: 1,726
Active Listings: 1,568

Year: 2003
Sales: 1,550
Active Listings: 2,881

Year: 2002
Sales: 1,625
Active Listings: 1,989

Year: 2001
Sales: 1,534
Active Listings: 2,459

Year: 2000
Sales: 1,440
Active Listings: 2,746

Year: 1999
Sales: 1,451
Active Listings: 4,842

Year: 1998
Sales: 1,281
Active Listings: N/A

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

46921 TRUMPET CIR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $323,900
Prior Sale: $346,118 01/09/2007 Bank of NY
Prior Sale: $415,000 07/01/2005
Listing Date: 04/06/07
-22%

22940 OLYMPIA DR
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $499,000
Prior Sale: $613,329 03/17/2006
Listing Date: 07/14/06
-18.6%

42939 GOTHAM WAY
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $509,250
Prior Sale: $571,500 03/29/2006
Listing Date: 04/06/07
-10.9%

42639 EXPLORER DR
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $679,900
Prior Sale: $724,002 11/23/2005
Listing Date: 02/23/07
-6.1%

25196 DESTINATION SQ
ALDIE, VA 20105
List Price: $470,000
Prior Sale: $481,690 06/20/2005
Listing Date: 11/14/06
-2.4%

42698 EXPLORER DR
ASHBURN, VA 20148
List Price: $692,900
Prior Sale: $697,380 09/12/2005
Listing Date: 04/09/07
-0.6%

Virginia Foreclosures Update

As of today I'll start listing just the foreclosures by Northern Virginia counties that are considered "active" at www.foreclosure.com. When we compare numbers in the future, these will be more accurate than the numbers foreclosure.com puts out as "foreclosures," when many of those are listed as "inactive". A number of these "active" listings can be found on the MLS if they're being sold by the institutions holding the mortgages.

"Active" Foreclosures 04/09/2007

Arlington: 8
Fairfax: 183
Loudoun: 116
Prince William: 255
Frederick: 24
Fauquier: 11
Culpeper: 18
Stafford: 51

Numbers for the whole Commonwealth of Virginia, including "inactives".

04/09/07
Foreclosures: 2,403
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,844

04/02/07
Foreclosures: 2,237
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,811

03/25/07
Foreclosures: 2,018
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,508

03/18/07
Foreclosures: 1,895
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,449

03/16/07
Foreclosures: 1,578
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,358

02/20/07
Foreclosures: 1,344
Preforeclosures: 19
Bankruptcies: 9,253

01/09/07
Foreclosures: 1,054
Preforeclosures: 81
Bankruptcies: 8,776

Overextending

Thanks to a commenter "George" for mentioning the article in the Sunday Baltimore Sun about foreclosures being on the rise there. Ben Jones' blog also highlighted the article today.

Since there are other blogs dedicated to the Maryland market (such as the Baltimore Housing Blog), I usually like to stick with news specific to Northern VA. But this article had a very good point that's relevant to what we're seeing in affluent neighborhoods here such as Landsdowne on the Potomac in Loudoun County.

Overextending

Sherrie Brandquist, president of Fair Housing Rescue in Baltimore County, is hearing this a lot. She negotiates with lenders on behalf of homeowners in trouble who want to sell but can't get offers to cover all that they owe.

"It's not just that the market turned," said Brandquist, who in a year on the job has worked on cases involving homes ranging in price from $130,000 to $1.8 million. "I'm seeing that we have come out of five years of reckless lending."

Suburbia wasn't immune to foreclosures before. In the Baltimore area, the number of filings was higher at the start of the housing boom several years ago, improving as escalating home prices gave homeowners more options - refinance or sell for a quick profit.

But the sharp increase in foreclosures since then - here and in other affluent areas - seems like a new problem, said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac Inc., a California company that tracks foreclosures. He thinks middle- and upper-middle-income homeowners have overextended themselves, betting on rising income and home equity - and losing those bets.

"Something's Going On"

News from our neighbor to the North:

When mortgages become too burdensome, the bill from the condo association becomes easier to ignore.

Phil Ochs, a lawyer who represents about 40 condo and homeowners associations in Montgomery and Prince George's counties, said he has seen 10 foreclosures since January. In the past 45 days, 15 people living in communities he represents have declared bankruptcy to stave off foreclosure. Most of them bought their condos in the past two years, he said.

Normally, Ochs said, he may see one or two foreclosures and one or two bankruptcies a month. But now, that's changed. "Something's going on," Ochs said. "This is historically out of line."

Delinquencies are also increasing on investor-owned units, lawyers and property managers said. At the height of the real estate boom, investors bought properties with the intention of selling for a quick profit. When the market turned, they couldn't sell. Now, they are renting the units out, sometimes for less than the monthly mortgage. To make up for the shortfall, some choose not to pay condo fees.

Yahoo has a new Foreclosure Center. One can search by city name, which is helpful.

Some data from the site:


Total Foreclosures in Virginia

Average percentage below market value that buyers are saving on foreclosures in Virginia: 24%

Top 10 Foreclosure Cities

1. Detroit, Michigan
2. Greeley, Colorado
3. Atlanta, Georgia
4. Fort Worth, Texas
5. Las Vegas, Nevada
6. Vallejo, California
7. Camden, New Jersey
8. Palm Bay, Florida
9. Olympia, Washington
10. Dallas, Texas

Prince William County Same-House Sales

14195 MAPLEDALE AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $317,900
Prior Sale: $413,000 3/2/2006
Listing Date: 04/02/07
-23%

4641 EVANSDALE RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $294,000
Prior Sale: $358,000 12/20/2006 DEUTSCHE BANK
Listing Date: 01/28/07
-17.9%

13634 AMERICA DR
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $585,900
Prior Sale: $595,292 1/30/2007 COUNTRYWIDE
Prior Sale: $709,826 11/30/2005
Listing Date: 04/02/07
-17.5%

8102 RUGBY RD
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $355,000
Prior Sale: $340,000 1/30/2007 US BANK NATIONAL
Prior Sale: $406,000 1/17/2006
Listing Date: 01/22/07
-12.6%

13757 MAPLEDALE AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $319,000
Prior Sale: $360,000 4/4/2006
Listing Date: 01/24/07
-11.4%

13103 CAROLYN FOREST DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $315,000
Prior Sale: $293,088 1/29/2007 DEUTSCHE BANK
Prior Sale: $348,000
Listing Date: 03/19/07
-9.5%

4367 ENSBROOK LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $280,000
Prior Sale: $305,000 6/13/2005
Listing Date: 03/15/07
-8.2%

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

855 DOGWOOD CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $299,500
Prior Sale: $335,000 05/24/2005
Listing Date: 04/01/07
-10.6%

7809 KOOPMAN CT
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $399,000
Prior Sale: $445,000 10/19/2005
Listing Date: 04/03/07
-10.3%

12001 MARKET ST #151
RESTON, VA 20190
List Price: $294,900
Prior Sale: 09/01/2005 $320,000
Prior Sale: 03/01/2005 $200,900
Listing Date: 03/22/07
-7.8%

12001 MARKET ST #213
RESTON, VA 20190
List Price: $300,000
Prior Sale: $324,000 01/31/2005
Prior Sale: $175,901 11/17/2004
Listing Date: 03/15/07
-7.4%

12000 MARKET ST #143
RESTON, VA 20190
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $344,900 03/21/2005
Listing Date: 01/25/07
-5.8%

How Will This Bubble End?

From the Fauquier Times-Democrat today.

A few years back I was at a photo shoot for a house featured in our real estate section. . . . I knew the real estate agent, and asked her what the house was listed for.

"$535,000," she said.

"That seems pricey," I replied.

"Maybe, but it should sell quickly."

The house was nice and all, but it didn't seem half-a-million-nice. I asked her how people could afford it.

"You don't have to put any money down," she said.

"How's that?"

"You get a first mortgage for 80 percent, and a second for the other 20 percent, and you can get in without putting up any money. My 22-year-old son just bought a house for $450,000 with no money down. It's an interest-only loan."

I left there knowing that the housing situation was in bad shape, only nobody seemed to notice at the time.

. . .

How will this bubble end? Badly, I'm afraid.

Nasty results of NIMBYism

Less than 7,000 people in a County that measures 265 square miles, and they can't figure out why folks can't afford a humble dwelling. Hmmm . . In Rappahannock County, you can only build a new house on every 25 acres.

According to Superindendent of Schools Dr. Bob Chappell, Rappahannock County Public Schools lost eight teachers to Fauquier County last year. Money may not have been the only reason but it was a definite factor in their decision. Over the years, there have been several deputies at the Rappahannock County Sheriff's Office that have left for other counties as well.
. . .
Rappahannock County's total population has dipped below 7,000. The school system has lost students and many long time residents complain that their grown children cannot afford to live in the county.
. . .
It would take 88.5% of a public school teacher's monthly income to afford an average-priced 1-2 bedroom home in Rappahannock County. (Average price of 1-2 bedroom home in 2005-06 was $403,46.00).

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

6 CAROLINA CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $275,900
Prior Sale: $255,000 02/27/2007 US BANK
Prior Sale: $350,000 09/01/2005
Listing Date: 02/20/07
-21.2%

34 CAROLINA CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $294,000
Prior Sale: $270,000 02/02/2007 DEUTSCHE BANK
Prior Sale: $360,450 04/01/06
Listing Date: 03/17/07
-18.4%

408 LINCOLN AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $434,900
Prior Sale: $525,000 03/01/2006
Listing Date: 03/30/07
-17.2%

43254 STONEYGLEN CT
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $560,000
Prior Sale: $672,000 06/20/2006
Listing Date: 03/30/07
-16.7%

259 ELIA CT SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $650,000
Prior Sale: $689,715 05/02/2006
Listing Date: 11/06/06
-5.8%

7 WORTHINGTON CT
STERLING, VA 20165
List Price: $430,000
Prior Sale: $450,000 07/20/2005
Listing Date: 02/16/07
-4.4%

Housing Data Update

From Bloomberg:

"A report today may show the housing market remains one of the biggest drags on the economy.

Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in February, extending a real-estate slump that started in 2005, economists said before a National Association of Realtors report at 10 a.m. New York time.

An index of signed purchase agreements for previously owned homes probably fell for a second month, dropping 0.5 percent in February, the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey, after a 4.1 percent decline in January."

Update:

The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of existing homes increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7 percent to 109.3 in February from a reading of 108.5 in January. The index was 8.5 percent below its level of a year earlier, but stronger than the market had been expecting.

Prince William County Same-House Sales

18097 CAMDENHURST DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $525,000
Prior Sale: $595,000 10/24/2006 FREMONT INVESTMENT & LOAN
Prior Sale: $715,000 2/2/2006
Listing Date: 11/01/06
-26.6%

2855 HEADWAY DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $539,900
Prior Sale: $700,000 4/18/2006
Prior Sale: $606,695 9/20/2005
Listing Date: 01/28/07
-22.9%

6728 SUTTON OAKS WAY
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $429,900
Prior Sale: $423,000 12/6/2006 US BANK
Prior Sale: $530,000 9/26/2005
Listing Date: 12/23/06
-18.9%

11056 DOUBLEDAY LN
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $375,000
Prior Sale: $418,499 10/18/2005
Listing Date: 02/06/07
-10.4%

15102 CASTLE CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $325,500
Prior Sale: $344,000 6/3/2005
Listing Date: 03/22/07
-5.8%