Attention Home Shoppers!

Pulte's having a weekend sale.

The ad says in big friendly letters: "Up to 100,000 in Savings! You'd be foolish not to get in on this spectacular offer! Buy now before prices increase."

In other words, get this inventory off our books (for the first quarter ending March 31) before our stock price tanks any further!

Prince William County Same-House Sales

13208 HAWTHORN LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $269,900
Prior Sale: $335,000 11/30/2005
-19.4%

3212 BIRCHDALE SQ
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $251,900
Prior Sale: $312,000 12/9/2005
-19.3%

14396 SHARPSHINNED DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $486,900
Prior Sale: $597,000 2/17/2006
-18.4%

14500 AURORA DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $340,900
Prior Sale: $313,027 12/29/2006 BANK OF NY
Prior Sale: $374,000 4/29/2005
-8.9%

4003 LAUREL ST
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $460,900
Prior Sale: $496,575 9/1/2005
-7.2%

Arlington County

Here's an anecdote from a local real estate agent (who uses terms like "freaked-out investors"). "A bomb of sorts just hit the orange line Arlington VA condo market. It's called 1800 WILSON condominium. Many owners just lost $25,000+ instantly...."

These are statistics (from MRIS) for Arlington County, from February of 2007 and prior years. It is amazing how inventory has grown, although the inventory-to-sales ratio isn't nearly as dramatic as it is in the outer-lying counties.

Year: 2007
Sales: 205
Active Listings: 723

Year: 2006
Sales: 175
Active Listings: 753

Year: 2005
Sales: 199
Active Listings: 211

Year: 2004
Sales: 207
Active Listings: 201

Year: 2003
Sales: 228
Active Listings: 281

Year: 2002
Sales: 194
Active Listings: 237

Year: 2001
Sales: 187
Active Listings: 272

Year: 2000
Sales: 125
Active Listings: 345

Year: 1999
Sales: 155
Active Listings: 605

Supervisors cut own salaries

From the Fauquier Times-Democrat
Supervisors cut own salaries, hold tax rate flat
By Don Del Rosso
03/27/2007

"In a largely symbolic gesture to reduce spending, the county board of supervisors this week agreed to take a 22-percent pay cut.

The cut would take effect July 1, when the county's new fiscal year begins.

. . .

County government identified an additional $1.5 million revenue shortfall in the new fiscal year largely because of the slumping home building industry, which generates a substantial amount of local tax dollars."

Desultory Prices

Similar Houses, ~100K apart.

Loudoun County

14844 BANKFIELD DR WATERFORD, VA 20197 [Toll Brothers Quick Delivery Home]
List Price: $ 849,975
Year Built: 2007
Subdivision: WATERFORD RIDGE
BR: 4, FB: 4, HB: 1
Lot Acreage: 3.97

14925 BANKFIELD DR WATERFORD, VA 20197
List Price: $1,199,900
Year Built: 2004
Subdivision: WATERFORD RIDGE
BR: 4, FB: 3, HB: 1
Lot Acreage: 3.38

************************************************

Prince William County

10507 WHARFDALE PL GAINESVILLE, VA 20155 [Under Contract]
List Price: $535,000
Year Built: 2003
BR: 4, FB: 3, HB: 1
County Tax Assessment: $532,300

10500 WHARFDALE PL GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $648,887
03/23/07 (Reduced) $648,887 to $624,887
Year Built: 2003
BR: 4, FB: 3, HB: 1
County Tax Assessment: $555,500

************************************************

6084 OMEGA LN MANASSAS, VA 20112
List Price: $389,900
Year Built: 2005
BR: 4, FB: 2, HB: 2
County Tax Assessment: $441,300

6103 OMEGA LN MANASSAS, VA 20112
LIST PRICE: $499,900
Year Built: 2005
BR: 4, FB: 2, HB: 1
County Tax Assessment: $458,000


Fauquier County

7261 WINDSOR CT WARRENTON, VA 20186
List Price: $539,900
Year Built: 1988
BR: 5, FB: 3, HB: 1
County Tax Assessment: $578,400

7254 WINDSOR CT WARRENTON, VA 20186
List Price: $639,900
Year Built: 1989
BR: 4, FB: 3, HB: 1
County Tax Assessment: $609,000

************************************************

7566 BALD EAGLE DR WARRENTON, VA 20187
LIST PRICE: $599,900
BR: 4, FB: 3, HB: 1
County Tax Assessment: 705,300

6359 BOB WHITE DR WARRENTON, VA 20187
LIST PRICE: $675,000
BR: 4, FB: 3, HB: 1
County Tax Assessment: 703,500

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

703 MORNINGSIDE CT [Under Contract]
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $409,900
Prior Sale: $525,000 11/22/2005
-22%

8437 BYERS DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $419,900
Prior Sale: $451,000 07/19/2006 US BANK NATIONAL ASSN
Prior Sale: $535,000 10/18/2005
-21.5%

9418 LAKELAND FELLS LN
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $565,900
Prior Sale: $670,828 11/16/2005
-15.6%

4493 MORNING WIND CT [Under Contract]
ANNANDALE, VA 22003
List Price: $449,900
Prior Sale: $510,000 08/15/2006
-11.8%

73% of D.C. Agents "Got Trouble"

From Origination News:

"Nearly three-quarters of Washington-area real estate agents in a recent online survey said the availability of subprime mortgages and tighter standards for alternative-A loans have hurt their ability to get homes under contract, according to City Influence, a market research firm. In addition to the 73% who responded affirmatively on this question, 60% said their clients are having difficulty qualifying for the loan they need to buy a home, the Washington-based firm reported".

Foreclosure Wave Bears Down on Immigrants

From page A01 of the Washington Post today (by Kirstin Downey)

Homeownership rates among immigrants surged in the first half of the decade, making their prosperity an economic success story. Now it is becoming apparent that many people managed to buy homes in an inflated real estate market by turning to unusual new mortgages only now receiving scrutiny from regulators and legislators. Many of these loans start with attractive low "teaser" rates but feature payments that can suddenly increase . . . Tysons Corner mortgage broker Jose Luis Semidey, who has a popular Spanish-language real estate talk show on Radio Universal, is being deluged with calls from desperate homeowners who are falling behind on their mortgages. The calls started in late 2005 and have steadily risen; he now receives 40 to 50 calls a day from throughout the area.

"I see more coming," Semidey said

This is something I've noticed while posting the same-sales data at this website. When looking through our local Northern VA records, the majority of the names on the property records that are going through foreclosure are foreign-sounding.

Foreclosures Update

I've been keeping track of the numbers posted at foreclosure.com for the Commonwealth of Virginia. Most of these foreclosures are occurring in Greater Northern VA because of the concentration of population here.

03/25/07
Foreclosures: 2,018
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,508

03/18/07
Foreclosures: 1,895
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,449

03/16/07
Foreclosures: 1,578
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,358

02/20/07
Foreclosures: 1,344
Preforeclosures: 19
Bankruptcies: 9,253

01/09/07
Foreclosures: 1,054
Preforeclosures: 81
Bankruptcies: 8,776

12/04/06
Foreclosures: 851
Preforeclosures: 97
Bankruptcies: 8,708

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

1800 AMELIA ST N
Sterling, VA 20164
List Price: $320,000
Prior Sale: $435,000 09/01/2005
-26.4%

157 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $286,500
Prior Sale: $300,000 01/04/2007 [FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE]
Prior Sale: $359,900 09/01/2005
-20.4%

307 CHARLOTTE ST E
Sterling, VA 20164
List Price: $424,900
Prior Sale: $521,000 11/18/2005
-18.4%

25336 ELDRIDGE TER #33H
CHANTILLY, VA 20152
List Price: $369,900
Prior Sale: $328,000 02/08/2007 [FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE]
Prior Sale: $397,560 07/18/2005
-17.5%

121 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $290,000 06/15/2005
-13.8%

161 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $280,000
Prior Sale: $319,500 05/04/2005
-12.4%

105 CHARLOTTE ST
Sterling, VA 20164
List Price: $429,900
Prior Sale: $400,000 10/19/2006 [US BANK NATIONAL]
Prior Sale: $480,000 12/01/2005
-10.4%

525 BLACKSBURG TER NE
Leesburg, VA 20176
List Price: $292,900
Prior Sale: $322,268 01/17/2007
-9.1%

805 AMELIA ST N
Sterling, VA 20164
List Price: $419,900
Prior Sale: $440,000 03/21/2005
-4.6%

613E CHARLOTTE ST
Sterling, VA 20164
List Price: $407,500
Prior Sale: $425,000 01/12/2005
-4.1%

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

12000 MARKET ST #448
RESTON, VA 20190
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $530,628 11/07/2006 BANK OF NEW YORK
Prior Sale: $634,900 04/18/2005
-49%

14821 MAIDSTONE CT
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $285,000
Prior Sale: $292,954 12/18/2006 HSBC BANK USA
Prior Sale: $349,500 03/25/2005
-18.5%

14638 OLDE KENT RD
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $319,900
Prior Sale: $380,000 08/22/2005
-15.8%

6312 ABILENE ST
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $389,900
Prior Sale: $336,629 12/06/2006 FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE
Prior Sale: $455,000 07/29/2005
-14.3%

9490 VIRGINIA CENTER BLVD #223
VIENNA, VA 22181
List Price: $314,900 [Under Contract]
Prior Sale: $353,400 02/23/2004
-10.9%

Growth Cooling in D.C. Suburbs

What a timely article in today's Washington Post that directly contradicts the old argument two posts below that "Northern VA is different . . . jobs, everyone wants to live here, thousands moving here every day, etc. ad nauseum."

The galloping growth of Washington's outer Virginia suburbs is slowing at last, according to Census Bureau estimates to be released today, with high housing costs beginning to dull the appeal of counties that have long been a magnet for newcomers.

. . .

Mike Gorman, owner of Oakridge Communities, which builds homes in Loudoun and Prince William, blames high housing prices, which in Loudoun have reached about $694,000 for a detached house and $426,000 for a townhouse.

"It's just expensive to live in Loudoun. The cost of a single-family home is expensive. The cost of a townhouse is expensive," Gorman said.

By contrast, Lang said, "you could move to Nashville or Atlanta or Columbia, South Carolina, and pay $300,000 for a right fine house. . . . So a lot of the people who are leaving Fairfax may just be bypassing Loudoun and heading straight for those places."

Prince William County Same-House Sales

6084 OMEGA LN
MANASSAS, VA 20112
List Price: $389,900
Prior Sale: $510,000 7/25/2005
Prior Sale: $415,750 5/11/2005
-23.5%

6836 WITTON CIR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $375,000
Prior Sale: $392,041 6/09/2006 J P MORGAN CHASE BANK
Prior Sale: $466,500 4/19/2005
-19.6%

15160 JUPITER HILLS LN [Under Contract]
HAYMARKET, VA 20169
List Price: $555,900
Prior Sale: $675,627 4/13/2006 DEUTSCHE BANK
Prior Sale: $643,000 7/05/2005
-13.5%

15072 GAFFNEY CIR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $295,900
Prior Sale: $326,862 6/13/2006 EMC MORTGAGE CORP
Prior Sale: $339,000 9/8/2004
-12.7%

9972 BROADSWORD DR
BRISTOW, VA 20136
List Price: $599,900
Prior Sale: $603,728 6/7/2006 WELLS FARGO BANK
-0.6%

Washington Post's 2007 vs. 2006 Housing Outlook

On our local radio station (WTOP), I'm hearing breathless advertising to watch out for the Washington Post's Real Estate weekend section in which we'll find the annual Housing Outlook for 2007. Maryann Haggerty (the Post's Real Estate Editor) mentioned working hard on it in her chat last week.

Last year, I found the 2006 Housing Outlook to be more of a recap of the 2005 market rather than a foward-looking or even a real-time report. One article especially stood out to me because it dealt with the Prince William County area - clearly a suffering suburb as you can see from the data in this blog.

Housing Outlook 2006
Prince William County

By David P. Marino-Nachison
Special to The Washington Post
Sunday, March 26, 2006; Page R12

Home buyers shopping for property in Prince William County in 2005 had to contend with a market in which prices increased sharply in almost every neighborhood -- and at every price point . . .That demand, however, cooled beyond normal seasonal levels in the fall as rising prices and interest rate concerns hurt foot traffic at open houses in the county, according to Blanchette. "We definitely saw a market shift." . . . Home buyers remain attracted to Prince William not only because of its location next to Fairfax but also because of its own strong job market and improving amenities, said Barbara Tynes, an agent with ERA Tynes Realty in Woodbridge. She cited improvements to high-traffic thoroughfares at both ends of the county and substantial recent and planned development in office space, retail and recreation. There are approximately 340,000 residents in Prince William County and thousands more here yearly," Tynes said.

In other words, no worries, mate.

Long-time No. VA readers of Ben's Housing Bubble blog probably cringed when I started this post with a mention of Maryann Haggerty and her chats. Local bubble bloggers prefer Kirstin Downey for "keeping it real". Maryann rarely talks about the possiblity of a real estate bubble, or lax lending, or mortgage fraud. She's more the "should I paint my ceiling blue"-type chatterer. Last year, however, Kirstin, seemed to be more in the know:

Kingstowne, Va.: What the heck has happened to the market lately? I see tons of ads offering thousands towards closing costs. I even saw a sign in the neighborhood offering to throw in a 2006 Mercedes Benz with a full-priced offer! Is it the interest rates or something else?

Kirstin Downey: It's a really unusual time. Lots of things feel kind of upside down. The bottom line, however, is that not many people can afford houses at these prices. Wages just haven't risen commensurate to the costs, and it is now becoming clear that many buyers made their purchases in the past three years with new and innovative (some say risky) loans, adjustable-rates, or interest only, that allowed them to reach further to pay more but that could leave them at financial risk. More financially conservative people may not wish to go that route...Rising interest rates aren't helping either. Each percentage point increase pushed about three million people out of the market, including about 300,000 to 350,000 who were likely buyers.

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

8310 NEWBY BRIDGE DR
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $679,900
Prior Sale: $775,000 05/17/2006
Prior Sale: $710,000 12/27/2005
Prior Sale: $501,144 08/02/2005
-12.3%

3911 BRYCE RD
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22312
List Price: $434,900
Prior Sale: $465,000 09/20/2005
-6.5%

6902 JACKSON AVE
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
LIST PRICE: $459,900
Prior Sale: $431,000 07/06/2006
Prior Sale: $490,000 11/07/2005 ACCREDITED HOME LENDERS INC
-6%

1209 SUMMERFIELD DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $400,000
Prior Sale: $416,000 02/11/2005
-3.8%

Prince William County Same-House Sales

The first one looks like a flipper frenzy.


6847 MANDALAY CT
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $529,900
Prior Sale: $740,000 3/14/2006
Prior Sale: $679,900 12/7/2005
Prior Sale: $633,915 10/3/2005
-28.4%

15506 BANJO CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $336,500
Prior Sale: $348,763 11/17/2006 DEUTSCHE BANK
Prior Sale: $418,000 7/11/2005
-19.5%

15608 WILLIAM BAYLISS CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $419,900
Prior Sale: $399,000 11/20/2006 AVELO MORTGAGE
Prior Sale: $491,775 2/2/2006
-14.6%

6843 MANDALAY CT
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $579,000
Prior Sale: $641,015 8/31/2005
-9.7%

13054 TAVERNER LOOP
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $539,900
Prior Sale: $580,000 2/13/2006
-7%

IRS Foreclosure Rules Reminder

April 15 is coming . . . Tax Day is always a certainty, unlike new housing developments.

Most of the same-house sale listings I publish here are bank-owned foreclosures. Foreclosure isn't always a panacea to the owner. They will still owe taxes on the forgiven debt. With those who had no savings to begin with and used 100% financing, it will be burdensome. Leverage is problematic, isn't it? We need 50% margin with our stocks, but the late great mortgage lenders (see Implode-O-Meter on the sidebar) required 0% for speculating in real estate.

IRS Publication 523

Foreclosure or repossession.

If your home was foreclosed on or repossessed, you have a sale.

You figure the gain or loss from the sale in generally the same way as gain or loss from any sale. But the selling price of your home used to figure the amount of your gain or loss depends, in part, on whether you were personally liable for repaying the debt secured by the home, as shown in the following chart.

Ordinary income.

If you were personally liable for the canceled debt, you may have ordinary income in addition to any gain or loss. If the canceled debt is more than the home's fair market value, you have ordinary income equal to the difference. Report that income on Form 1040, line 21, or on Form 1040NR, line 21. However, the income from cancellation of debt is not taxed to you if the cancellation is intended as a gift, or if you are insolvent or bankrupt. For more information on insolvency or bankruptcy, see Publication 908, Bankruptcy Tax Guide.

Those Big Red Words

COMING SPRING 2007!

Warrenton Chase is Fauquier County's most spectacular new community of luxury single-family homes on 1/2-acre home sites, nestled among the gentle rolling hills of Virginia countryside. This exciting new community, just minutes from downtown Warrenton, features miles of hiking & biking trails, hundreds of acres of open space, neighborhood Recreation Center with a swimming pool and tot lots.

I've been watching the seasons and the big red statement change through the past year. First it was COMING SPRING 2006! Then COMING SUMMER 2006! Fall 2006! Winter 2007! I hope it does arrive soon. I'm feeling old.

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

14 SIMEON LN
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $287,900
Prior Sale: $358,000 12/01/2005
-19.6%

125 COTTAGE RD N
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $357,000 02/13/2007
-18.8%

44071 TIPPECANOE TER
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $424,900 05/16/2005
-17.7%

119 LINCOLN AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $412,000
Prior Sale: $495,000 11/28/2005
-16.8%

306 LINCOLN AVE S
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $369,900
Prior Sale: $437,000 06/10/2005
-15.4%

Prince William County - February Sales Comparisons

An observant reader of this blog noted that in spite of Fairfax County's rather benign 3% increase in properties sold, Prince William County had 29% fewer closings in February of 2007 than in February of 2006. (360 vs. 513)

To put that number in perspective, here's a list of Prince William County's February closings for the last 11 years. I used the following year's records for each sales number, as I assumed they were revised and hopefully more accurate.


Year: 2007
Sales: 360
Active Listings: 3,928

Year: 2006
Sales: 513
Active Listings: 3,354

Year: 2005
Sales: 678
Active Listings: 856

Year: 2004
Sales: 632
Active Listings: 909

Year: 2003
Sales: 513
Active Listings: 1,180

Year: 2002
Sales: 484
Active Listings: 973

Year: 2001
Sales: 399
Active Listings: 829

Year: 2000
Sales: 246
Active Listings: 1,324

Year: 1999
Sales: 231
Active Listings: 1,678

Year: 1998
Sales: 190
Active Listings: 2,135

Year: 1997
Sales: 178
Active Listings: 2,310

I'm not seeing any signs of "underlying stabilization" in PW County just yet.

Prince William Same-House Sales

2835 BANKS CT
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $214,900
Prior Sale: $271,500 2/1/2006
-21%


15250 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $519,900
Prior Sale: $650,000 8/3/2006
-20%


15321 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $489,900
Prior Sale: $586,000 12/20/2005
-16%


15254 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $509,000
Prior Sale: $582,770 9/1/2005
-13%


1500 KENTUCKY AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $351,900
Prior Sale: $389,900 3/8/2006
-10%

The NVAR is Data-Challenged

I found myself rather shocked when perusing the RealtyTimes' "Market Conditions" portion of their website. (Although I don't know why I torture myself with that, when it seems the market conditions reported by local agents are always "it's a favorable time to buy or sell a home).

This was my great surprise:

A Fairfax County agent, Steve Hawkins, reports the following:

GREETINGS FROM FAIRFAX COUNTY! In the month of February the number of homes sold was 809 compared to 1591 in 2006. The condo's sold was 241 compared to 496 in 2006.

Whoa!! There was suddenly a 50% drop in YOY sales and nobody noticed? Where is this data coming from?

Answer: The usual culprit -- bad data from the NVAR website. Indeed, their "February 2007" reports have the following:

2006, 2007

Single-family detached

847, 442

Townhouses

744, 367

Condos

496, 241

Total Properties sold:

2087, 1050

Of course, in their February 2006 report, they reported a total of only 956 sales (as opposed to this fantasy 2087 number) in 2006! (738 singles/townhomes and 218 condos).

I noted a posting on March 8 on the "Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide" (Linked to your right), entitled "NVAR Produces New Format Market Reports". It turns out our buddies at the GMU Center for Regional Analysis are now providing the new market reports for the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. (www.nvar.com).

The moral of this story is, I recommend checking the NVAR reports after reading the monthly statistics produced from the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems.

I find the MRIS reports to be slightly more timely, and one can search by zip code.

According to the MRIS reports, for February 2007, Fairfax County had 1,039 units sold in February 2007, and 1,009 units sold in 2006, or a 2.97 increase. I knew there had been talk (from David Lereah, etc.) that the market was "stabilizing", so the ho-hum 2.97 percent was about what I had expected.

A CRA-GMU Moment

I've been following the predictions of John C. McClain, the Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis, George Mason University.

Here's a quote from Page 46 of his PowerPoint Presentation dated February 21, 2007.

The Regional and Prince William Economy and Housing Market in 2007

• Market Adjustment nearing end - inventory stabilizing and prices will begin stabilizing.
• 2007 Prices will increase in the range of 0-5% - by 2008-9 reutrning to long-term normal of 7%
• Sales volume will drop back to 1998-1999 levels
• Days on Market leveling in the 90s

Here's a prior prediction of his. (See pp. 28-29) :

• Housing Outlook for 2006 and 2007
• "Areas of region with more affordable housing will continue to have 15-20% increases in 2006 - Prince George's, Prince William, Spotsylvania".

I'm wondering how he thought the housing market could get that much blood out of all of us turnips.

Fairfax County Same-House Sales

5364 BLUE ASTER CIR
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $532,900
Prior Sale: $664,000 09/02/2005
Prior Sale: $556,896 11/08/2006 (BANK OF NEW YORK)
-20%


2536 TERRA COTTA CIR
HERNDON, VA 20171
List Price: $539,900
Prior Sale: $647,200 02/21/2006
-16.6%


6014 FORREST HOLLOW LN
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22152
List Price: $330,489
Prior Sale: $375,000 03/14/2005
-12%


7422 GENE ST
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22315
List Price: $415,000
Prior Sale: $440,000 04/20/2005
-5.7%

Loudoun County Same-House Sales

17129 LEAMINGTON WAY
ROUND HILL, VA 20141

Current Asking Price: $429,900
Prior Sale: 11/18/2005 $518,900

-17%


258 ELIA CT SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175

Current Asking Price: $539,000
Prior Sale: 03/29/2006 $653,315

-17%


41941 VISIONARY CT
ALDIE, VA 20105

Current Asking Price: $589,000
Prior Sale: 07/19/2005 $658,290

-10.5%


44320 CROW CT
ASHBURN, VA 20147

Current Asking Price: $653,900
Prior Sale: 10/12/2005 $716,940

-8.8%

Accelerating Trend in Foreclosures

I've been keeping track of the numbers posted at foreclosure.com for the Commonwealth of Virginia. Most of these foreclosures are occurring in Greater Northern VA because of the concentration of population here.

8/31/06
Foreclosures: 580
Preforeclosures: 53
Bankruptcies: 7,478

9/26/06
Foreclosures: 656
Preforeclosures: 47
Bankruptcies: 7,553

11/05/06
Foreclosures: 740
Preforeclosures: 84
Bankruptcies: 8,190

12/04/06
Foreclosures: 851
Preforeclosures: 97
Bankruptcies: 8,708

01/09/07
Foreclosures: 1,054
Preforeclosures: 81
Bankruptcies: 8,776

02/20/07
Foreclosures: 1,344
Preforeclosures: 19
Bankruptcies: 9,253

03/16/07
Foreclosures: 1,578
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,358

03/18/07
Foreclosures: 1,895
Preforeclosures: 1
Bankruptcies: 9,449

County Faces "Worst" Tax Revenue Year In More Than A Decade

"He called it the 'worst' year for tax revenue growth in more than a decade and a half.

'It's the smallest increase (in new revenue for county spending) in the 16 years I've been here,' budget director Bryan Tippie told the Fauquier County Board of Supervisors last Thursday.

Fauquier expects to collect about $2.7 million in new tax dollars during fiscal 2008. That represents a 1.9-percent increase above the amount it received this year.

By contrast, Fauquier typically realizes an annual tax-revenue bump of 5 percent, or $6 to $7 million, Tippie said in an interview.

Because of a projected revenue shortfall largely due to a weak housing market, County Administrator Paul S. McCulla two weeks ago gave the supervisors a no-tax hike, no-frills spending plan for fiscal year 2008, which begins July 1."

Grand-Thinking Va. Mayor Seeks Town's Energy Independence

Kudos to Mayor Fitch!

I'm not an Unshorn Sister of the Apocalypse, but I do wish to build an energy-efficient house when the particles from the bursting bubble have dissolved. I wouldn't even mind buying one in a development. (Builders, are you listening?)

Prince William and Fauquier Same-House Sales

10381 TWISTED OAK LN
MARSHALL, VA 20115
Current Sales Price: $569,900
Previous Sale: 11/04/2005 $749,900

- 24%

18186 CAMDENHURST DR
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
Current Asking Price: $504,900
Previous Sale: 4/18/2006 $695,000

-27%

14924 SIMMONS GROVE DR
HAYMARKET, VA 20169
Current Asking Price: $655,900
Previous Sale: 3/14/2006 $749,000

-12%

8614 LINTON HALL RD
BRISTOW, VA 20136
Current AskingPrice: $ 279,900
Previous Sale: 6/10/2005 $349,500

-20%

Introduction

Let's start this blog with an introduction to this blogger. I live in Fauquier County, VA, an exurb of Washington, D.C. (Yes, folks *do* commute this far! Not us, though!)

We sold our primary residence in 2005 and have been "bubble-sitting" ever since, with moral support from Ben Jones' Housing Bubble Blog. Reading his blog (and the wisdom from the commentators) has provided a tremendous financial education over the past few years.

I'll not bother repeating the whole credit bubble/subprime implosion story at this blog. One can sort through the archives of Ben's Blog to get that story. This blog will, however, hopefully provide a forum for local folks to share gossip and stories from the trenches here in Northern Virginia.

My purpose here is also to track current listings (including foreclosures) that are being sold at a huge discount from their purchase price a few years ago, just to show the nature of this beast.

Cheers,
Harriet