October real estate sales results for Northern Virginia will be out tomorrow at the MRIS, but Merv Forney at the Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide has them (scroll down the page to his November 5 posting) for October for Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties, along with some nifty charts and commentary.
Fairfax County shows a 3.5% YOY decline in median price, Loudoun a 4% decline, and Prince William County a 14% decline.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
October Sales
Posted by Harriet at 8:23 AM
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13 comments:
In reality its much worse.
Homes have to sell before they can be taken into account. People are making much deeper cuts, but still no sale. Ive seen 35% price reductions in Fairfax get no interest.
People who need to sell are going to have to cut even further if they absolutely need to sell.
Or they can just send the keys to the bank and say "thank you very much for taking my down payment" and walk away and begin rebuilding their credit.
We may see a lot of that - people simply walking away from their home because they must move and cant afford to continue paying.
I agree, doug. But, don't take my word for it -
DC is ranked 10 out of 25 markets poised to fall in price.
I agree that we are still in the relatively early stages of the correction.
Credit is still tightening and slowly but surely sellers are realizing that the prices they saw a year or two ago are gone and won't be back for a long long time.
I think the real question is what effect all the over building during the bubble years will have now that the bubble is popping.
We are likely to find ourselves in a situation where there is a great excess of certain types of housing. McMansions in the suburbs and "luxury" condos and townhouses everywhere else.
That article is interesting.
25% is a reasonable though someone conservative prediction. I think we will end up more in the 25-35% range in real dollars before this is all over, more in the far out suburbs.
I agree, the far out burbs will probably fall 50-60%.
They way way way overbuilt out there, catering to a lot of the lower rung speculators. It will take a decade to sell off the current inventory because not many families actually wants to live out there.
The new 2500 sq foot single family homes that idiots were paying 600k for, selling now for 350-400k need to fall to 175k before they start making sense.
Huge numbers of giant houses on tiny lots.
Huge numbers of giant cars on tiny roads.
Something has got to give.
It isn't simply that they overbuilt. They overbuilt the wrong types of homes. During the peak bubble years the builders couldn't be bothered to build anything less than 2500sqf.
What is going to happen to those houses now?
Fortune Magazine - 25 Markets Poised to Fall. Finally the MSM is taking responsibility and starting to report the economical truth about the warped real estate market in all post-bubble metro areas. A solid correction is the best cure for the sickness real estate markets have been suffering from for the past several years. Once it has ran its course it will create a much healthier, clearer and natural business environment for the stock market and the economy because it will not even be a factor just a passive indicator which so ignorantly in the past was driven up to unjustifiable and unsustainable speculative excesses where a house does not become a home but rather a cold transient asset. Of course, the MSM reporting as of late has already been known for a long time by people on the ground with a realistic and open perspective thanks to great real estate blogs such as the Northern Virginia Housing Bubble Blog. Thank you Harriet!
PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY
Leroy asked:
"What is going to happen to those houses now?"
Answer:
McMansions Turn 'McApartments,' Stirring Ire
By Ovetta Wiggins
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 4, 2007; Page B02
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/03/AR2007090301114.html
This has been part of a recurring theme in the expansion of this (and other) metro areas. As far back immediately following the Civil War, you had Logan Circle built to house the cities' elite ... only to see it turning into Boarding House heaven as Dupont Circle got developed at the end of the 19th century. Dupont Circle then experienced the same makeover into a Boarding House area at the beginning of the 20th century due to an economic recession. Numerous other areas such as close in Silver Spring experienced similar "alternative" use of houses once built for the wealthy.
We have a lot of immigrants in this area and are getting more everyday. With enough people helping out with the mortgage, these larger homes out in exhurbia can easily be affordable to them. And when push comes to shove and the county commissioners are faced with the prospect of either accomodating a changed use or losing substantial potential tax revenue out there, they'll make the change. Afterall, like Leroy and many other BHs rightfully observe, there is a lot of excess housing out in exhurbia ... and I don't see it in anyone's interest for it to stay unused ... especially when we have so many new immigrants needing housing. And while I agree that prices out there must drop a lot, one has to take into account the counter-balancing effect on that drop by the "Boarding House"-ization of the McMansions. Nothing occurs in a vacuum ...
@Doug
"The new 2500 sq foot single family homes that idiots were paying 600k for, selling now for 350-400k need to fall to 175k before they start making sense."
What? Homes like that in Woodbridge were over $200K in 1993.
@Lance
Do you know what occupancy codes are? That activity puts a huge stress on infrastructure and school systems. I'd be pissed to.
By the way, I posted b/c 503 N.Nelson is finally under contract. They started at $850K but dropped to $769K. That is the 2nd place within a week that has finally got a contact after sitting through a number of price drops (see 538 N. Oakland). I think we are starting to see where the market is for the older places in Ashton Heights/Lyon Park/Lyon Village. I'll post the prices when the sales are finally recorded. The real test will be the spring. If activity does not pick up, we know that decline is continuing.
From 850 to 769??!! I sure as anything hope that is not the clearing price. Your typical family still can't afford that.
Unfortunately typical families cant afford to buy inside the beltway - unless the house is a real beater.
Anything decent in FC or AR will run at least 700k.
That may change with the housing decline, but with rising gas costs I imagine those prices wont drop under 500k anytime soon unless its a distressed or bank sale.
Oh and Bill, a friend of mine bought in 1998, a 2700 square foot SFH - new construction, in 1998 for 175k.
So, you are mistaken.
Arlington County continues to show its strength in housing prices. Shows you how this close-in community with excellent public transportation (especially Metrorail) has pretty much escaped the housing downturn in the Washington area. As I've observed, a house within walking distance of a Metro station in Arlington has suffered no loss of value in terms of sales price. I expect with the hike in gas prices, that trend will only strengthen.
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