724 CORDELL WAY
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $209,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 10/04/2005
Listing Date: 11/20/07
-41.7%
4525 SAMUELS PINE RD
CHANTILLY, VA 20151
List Price: $329,000
Prior Sale: $550,000 08/02/2005
Listing Date: 11/24/07
-40.2%
652 ALABAMA DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $465,000 10/13/2006
Listing Date: 11/15/07
-39.8%
6805 LOIS DR
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $369,900
Prior Sale: $560,000 05/09/2006
Listing Date: 11/23/07
-33.9%
7152 FLOYD AVE
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $535,000 08/02/2005
Listing Date: 11/16/07
-32.7%
(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Fairfax County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 10:28 PM
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11 comments:
The declines are getting progressively larger and we are still in the early stages of rate resets. I saw a chart in the WSJ that shows resets have been about 15 to 20 billion a month recently (in terms of loan amounts resetting) but that in 2008 resets will spike up to 40 to 60 billion a month.
I can only imagine what that is going to do to the volume of foreclosures/short sales and to home prices.
I went back to look at the first two fairfax county posts Harriet put up and counted the number of properties listed at a 20% or more reduction.
One had 4 at 20% or more and the other had 5.
This most recent list has 20.
Harriet, have you changed how you collect data at all since you have started?
I don't want to go looking for trends in the data if your methods have changed over time.
Leroy,
In March, Fairfax County had about 5-6 months of inventory, so short-selling was pretty rare as sellers were doing ok. But the Spring market didn't get off the ground after some early buying and selling, and then the foreclosures started blooming.
I think around May I started using ZipRealty's new "Search for Short Sales" feature. So that was new and did help me with my search. I haven't changed any searching methods since then. Since that time the number of houses that are selling under that criteria has been steadily rising.
I have also always looked for new homes (built in 2004-2006) and then bank-owned houses. The latter were nearly always likely to yield prior house sales in 2004-2006.
When I post Arlington County updates, I search every property that's been listed in the prior week and post the ones that sold between 2004-2006 and their prior sales prices.
Hey There!
So I saw this 41% and I looked it up thinking that it must be a Short Sale, which oftentimes have FAKE pricing (a low number to get interest, but the bank says "NO") but it isn't, it is bank owned.
What don't get is why these agents don't use photos. I went back to the previous listing and found these photos:
http://tinyurl.com/ystnvl
It doesn't look all that bad.
I wrote a blog post about these SOL Herndon homes. Wow.
I even asked the head of NAR about Herndon in front of 1,000 Realtors.
He was clueless.
Funny thing, The Washington Post said that Herndon was up 14%!!!!!!!!!
Imagine that! (That is my most recent post)
Frank Borges LL0SA
Blog.FranklyRealty.com
That 2nd listing 4525 SAMUELS PINE RD, is a Short Sale. We should keep an eye on it. I bet the bank will refuse offers at this price and it will foreclose, and pop up a month later as a bank owned (many times for more).
For 652 ALABAMA DR
The bank took it over at $385,000 in Sept 07
The next one is a "A TRUE BARAGIN"
7152 FLOYD AVE
Wow! That is the WORST photo I have ever seen!
Frank Borges LL0SA- Broker FranklyRealty.com
Blog.FranklyRealty.com
Hey Frank-
Question for you (as an RE Agent)
My Agent sheephishly trys to get Hubby & I to offer near asking these days, stating that "Hey, I have to work with these people in the future".
He means that he doesn't want to "low-ball" too much, cause it pisses off the selling Agent.
What's a good response for him?
Or should we just get rid of him?
(BTW, I offer 100K or more lowballs, so I'm ugly about it!)
Thanks Frank,
A couple partners and I (we're house heads with some $ in CDs) have been looking to pick up a rental or investment place.
According to the BH's here, prices are plunging. Well, no, they're not.
We're seeing some prices off a little but when there's a $100K discount (on a $400K place), there is a reason.
It's what you said in your blog, the stinky place (owners are smokers and have pets), noisy road out front, lot too small, trees hanging over the house/wires, etc.
Can't fix the noisy road, 6 lanes at 60 MPH 30 feet from the front door, can't move the house, $20K to fix the other faults.
Still have not seen any screaming deals.
kh,
I like to read every comment here and can't think of an example where BH's said that prices are plunging in Alexandria or Arlington.
About 43% of Arlington's and 48% of Alexandria's current listings have been reduced in price, which would caution me as a buyer that nearly half of new listings got the price wrong to begin with. Obviously, too, this is winter clearance sale time.
I read Frank's post a few weeks ago about there not being any "screaming deals". You're asking in that case to (1) buy under market value to flip or (2) cash flow a rental. (2) should be fairly easy to determine, but (1) would be nearly impossible unless you're a skilled renovator.
Hey Spunky,
Thanks for your question.
Actually I wrote a long reply and then my browser crashed.
So I think I'll just make it into a Full blog post.
She isn't as crazy as you think. Depending on the area, lowballing doesn't work. Sounds sexy, but doesn't work.
Sign up for the blog at blog.FranklyRealty.com and I'll try and have it out this week.
Frank
blog.FranklyRealty.com
"I like to read every comment here and can't think of an example where BH's said that prices are plunging in Alexandria or Arlington."
...and I did not mention either Alexandria or Arlington in my post above. You're doing the "I know what you are thinking so I'll reply to that."
That is very common in this blog. I don't know why exactly but I have some theories.
No.
We are not looking at Alexandria or Arlington. We are looking "out there".
Our point is not 1) to flip nor 2) own a cash flow positive rental, although that is a parameter.
It is more complicated than that.
Still have not seen any screaming deals but would not mind being pointed to some.
i havent seen you list this one
FX6576723
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