Here are some numbers showing the months of inventory creeping up in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties. They're taken from the "Daily Resale Watch" by Merv Forney at the Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide.
10/29/2007
Fairfax -- 10.7
Loudoun -- 12.6
Prince William -- 18.8
10/01/2007
Fairfax County -- 9.1
Loudoun -- 11.3
Prince William - 16.6
09/07/2007
Fairfax County -- 7.0
Loudoun -- 9.0
Prince William -- 14.3
03/01/2007
Fairfax -- 4.2
Loudoun -- 6.3
Prince William -- 10.0
Monday, October 29, 2007
Inventory Creep
Posted by Harriet at 3:37 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
It looks like jumps in increase to me, hardly a "creep"
Up one Month's suppy in 29 days???
The interesting thing, I think, is that listings have remained about the same since September:
Fairfax County Active Listings:
March 1: 4,611
September 1: 7,668
October 1: 7,914
October 28: 7,719
The rate of absorption is slowing dramatically, so the "months of inventory" number is growing. It's natural for buyers to back off during November/December/January (unless it's warm) and start in again after the Super Bowl.
I wonder if we'll have another "Silent Spring" in 2008. This Spring was surreal with too-high pricing on new listings. Inventory was improving for sellers, and buyers bought early in the year, but the stuff that was overpriced didn't get very far for the most part.
I should mention I found those inventory numbers here:
Virginia MLS Realty
Ive been tracking homes in a neighborhood I own a rental property and there has definitely been some homes taken off the market that were priced too high.
I looked up their original sales prices and sure enough, they were significantly higher than the asking price, and were purchased in 05 and 06.
I really dont understand why somebody would pay out the nose for some townhome that doesn't really compare well to others in the neighborhood, then try and sell it 2 years later for 50-100k less than you paid for it.
I guess they wizened up and decided to keep living there.
The uptick in month's supply in Fairfax County is worth monitoring. I think we can agree that PWC and Loudon are toast. If the contagion will spread inside the beltway, it will hit the nice parts of Fairfax before it hits Old Town, N. Arlington, or DC.
Post a Comment