Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
August 2007 Northern Virginia Real Estate Sales
I made a detailed comment on the price increase in Arlington in the housing supply thread. In sum, two words--"New Construction."
Actually...There are a couple noteworthy things going on here. This is a classic case where medians can be skewed by a different type of home selling during a sampling period.In short, a different mix of homes is selling. Last year 187 condos sold out of a total of 300 homes sold in August. (62.33% condos)This year 126 condos sold out of a total of 235 homes sold in August. (53.61% condos)The lower percentage of condos skews the median way up. The same is true of the attached houses sold in Arlington county in August of this year. Last year attached sales made up 10.66%(32/300) of sales. This year attached sales made up 8.51% (20/235) of sales.I think the different mix of homes being sold is the primary contributor to the "jump" in median prices. I suspect new construction is also playing a big role however. There are many many new construction condos coming onto the market in Arlington and they generally command much greater prices than the older buildings. I suspect a great percentage of the condos being sold this year are new construction but there isn't data I am aware of to back that theory up unfortunately.
I also think the sales volume is interesting. At or near decade lows.It will be interesting to see housingtraker's inventory numbers posted later today. I have seen a number of new listings in the past week.
My evidence is anecdotal. I bought a 2BR/1BA condo in June for $318K (less than tax appraisal) but the comps were about $365K. This was in one of those old garden apartments by the Iwo Jima that was converted in the early '80s. As Leroy notes, all of these old garden units are way cheaper than units in new buildings like 1800 Wilson, Odyssey, The Phoenix, etc...FYI. Here is a good interactive map of Clarendon development.http://www.arlingtonvirginiausa.com/index.cfm/6145
"Official" prices are becoming more and more detached from reality. I think there is a big difference in the quality of the housing stock being represented in the "official" numbers. There is just no way that median price of a house in Prince William County has only fallen by 1.3% since last year. No way.
Zip 20009 - Median down 1.8% Average down 16%.
Two-year look at Zip 20009.Median August 2005 - 434,250Median August 2007 - 430,000Average August 2005 - 517,160Average August 2007 - 475,832Zip 20009 is flat-to-down over a two-year period.
I was wrong about the price of the tear down in my earlier comments. The builder paid 900K for the lot. He sold the first home for $1.489 (510 Monroe). http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/Inquiry.asp?Action=View&lrsn=34884The second house (512 Monroe) sold in August, but sale is not yet recorded. This type activity really skews the median in Arlington.http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/Inquiry.asp?Action=View&lrsn=34883
Bill said: "This type activity really skews the median in Arlington."In my area, they are adding onto places to beat the band. Down on E. Reed, they are doing knock downs.Given that activity, I'm surprised that the Alexandria increases are so low.
"In my area, they are adding onto places to beat the band. Down on E. Reed, they are doing knock downs.Given that activity, I'm surprised that the Alexandria increases are so low. "Detached houses in Alexandria City are actually well down in this set of numbers. Average price down ~18% YoY. Condos are just about the only thing in Alexandria City that are up.
kh,I know those places on E. Reed. I can't believe that the builders are asking $600K + for duplexes on one of the sketchiest streets in Alexandria. The proximity to DC is great, but that's about it.
Bill, I was surprised the Monroe houses went for that much. The developer must have made a killing, and given those sales I think a number of the decrepit houses on 6th Road, Nelson and Monroe may go that way also. You could probably get those teardowns for 650-750, and sell fro 1.6 given the much greater amount of land than on the Monroe houses.
Terminator-X said: "I can't believe that the builders are asking $600K + for duplexes on one of the sketchiest streets in Alexandria."I'm with you on that. The "bubble" concept meets E. Reed St. What a mind blower!!For those who are unfamiliar with the area, E. Reed St was Alexandria's worse with every stereotype, debris in the street, people drinking and yelling, cars on blocks, the famous wall of chairs on the wall.2 blocks away, the Auburn Condo's garden apartments sit on a classic treed and nicely landscaped block. Pricey at $200K+ for a 1 bdrm but compared to E. Reed St?1/2 mile to Del Ray and a bit more to Beverly Hills, where smaller, needs-TLC SFH's are $500K-$600K. High-value compared to E. Reed St. Consider what Bill said about the $1+M newly built compared to $700K older design. E. Reed St is about 1/4 new or significantly renovated. I just drove through there last evening. At some point, the rehabs will overwhelm the blight. I don't think it's there yet. Those duplexes on E. Reed St make the rest of Alexandria look like a bargain.
Suddenly, KH seems to have lost his enthusiasm for discussing prices in 20009.
"Suddenly, KH seems to have lost his enthusiasm for discussing prices in 20009."Don't worry, pan-global lance knows his nodes. Regardless of what the numbers show you can rest assured that his $700k purchase in late 2005 is now worth "over a million dollars."
Keith said: "Suddenly, KH seems to have lost his enthusiasm for discussing prices in 20009."I'm not Lance's sock puppet. I'm in 22305. My point above is that E. Reed has the potential to pull a Lance. It has been an inner city, ghetto, war zone for 30 years. That keeps assessments down. Risk takers are buying the lots and doing knock downs. There are some pricey places going up. If enough places turn over, the street may jump in price. It's across Route 1 from the Potomac Yards shopping center, 3 blocks to hyped condos and a Harris Teeter, 1 mile to Crystal City and the metro, about a half mile to the Del Ray restaurant row.
Oops, I got the link above wrong. it's http://www.eclipsecondo.com/I left off the hyper text transfer protocol. Sorry.
"I'm not Lance's sock puppet." That's a refreshing change of pace."I'm in 22305. My point above is that E. Reed has the potential to pull a Lance."E. Reed has the potential to go flat or down like 20009 over the past two years? Now, if you meant, "sure, it looks like Lance isn't the genius I claimed, but E. Reed has potential for appreciation," then I totally agree with you. Lynhaven in general does have major upside potential, even as the market as a whole goes down. Lynhaven is the one place I'd be inclined to make a long bet. On the whole, you're really adding a lot to this board, now that you've tossed that pan-global albatross off your neck.
ah, e reed. i lived in potomac yard and had to drive down e reed every day for over a year. i watched out my balcony as the construction of them duplexes woke me up each weekday morn. i kept asking my wife, who do they think will move into those? as the condos on the corner of us1 were finished and the lil townhomes next to that, i did have some hope for the area. but the prices are outrageous for a 2br/1ba one level duplex with a parking garage view out the back. one young couple bought one of them, and they didnt really fit in with the hood if you catch my drift, my wife and i thought, hmm, they must have bought sight unseen.
gt said: "who ... will move into those?"There are 2 pair of duplexes at the other end of E. Reed with For Sale signs. I drove through yesterday. The street was quieter and looking almost tidy.The question might be, how long before E. Reed is trendy and we're saying, "You know, back in Oh-Seven, I coulda got one of those for under a million dollars."
"The question might be, how long before E. Reed is trendy and we're saying, "You know, back in Oh-Seven, I coulda got one of those for under a million dollars." "Uh huh... and I MIGHT be superman in disguise. I am not saying that cruddy neighborhoods don't ever turn around, because they obviously do.(and nice neighborhoods also sometimes turn cruddy) but I think we are a long long loooong way from million dollar duplexes in that area.
Leroy said:"but I think we are a long long loooong way from million dollar duplexes in that area."I don't know that much about that neighborhood other than seeing it when I go to Potomac Landing, however my guess is that it has all the right makings to have million dollar duplexes sooner rather than later. It is near DC. It is right across from Potomac Landing (if that's the place you all are talking about) and Potamac Landing with it's humungous parking lot will one day evolve into more of a lifestyle center as has happened with the (former) shopping strip in Rockville at the corner of the Pike and Montrose. It is also near Old Town and walkable to Crystal City which itself is just around the corner from a transformation into an urban destination. In brief, it has the right bones. It might never quite be an Old Town or a Georgetown, but it'll be damn near close ... and the million dollar mark will surely be surpased either by the next decade or shortly into it. Of course I can see some people not wanting to put up with what it is now and feeling it's worth the longterm loss to live somewhere more "plain vanilla" with less upside potential but more current livability. To each his own, but if one believes in sacrificing a bit today for a better tomorrow, this place would sure fit the bill.
"I don't know that much about that neighborhood other than seeing it when I go to Potomac Landing, however my guess is that it has all the right makings to have million dollar duplexes sooner rather than later. It is near DC."It isn't really necessary to read past that first part of your post lance. You do realise that right?New paradigm... panglobal nodes... etc etc... if those duplexes couldn't hit a million in the midst of the most recent bubble their prospects don't look good for anytime soon.
Lance said: "it has the right bones."I was trying to be funny, imagining a distant future time.Now that you point out those qualities, it really could happen in the near future.E. Reed is walking distance to Crystal City and across from that under utilized shopping center. The stigma of what it was is keeping the price down. I think those $600K duplexes are overpriced but I might be wrong. Just down the street a 3/2 penthouse at Eclipse is $880K3650 SOUTH GLEBE ROAD #1112, ARLINGTON, VA 22202ML#: AR6515007 LP: $883,657Status: ACTIVE DOMM/DOMP: 21/21Adv Sub: THE ECLIPSE ON CENTER PARKOwnership: Condo Total Tax: Date Avail: Ground Rent:Type: Hi-Rise 9+ Floors Area: Style: Contemporary Map Coord: XXXBR/FB/HB: 3/2/0 Tot Fin Sqft: 1,502 Lot AC/SF: / HOA/CC Fee: .00/538Model: Yr Blt: 2007Lvls/Fpl: 1/0 Vacation Y/N: No
THE ECLIPSE ON CENTER PARKIf you want complain about something, the Eclipse is better than most. 1 - It's got a pretentious name. The Real Estate people are invoking the name of New York's Central Park2 - While the Metro is close, Every other apartment in Crystal City is closer. 3 - The views of an Airport, regional water treatment plant, car lots, and a bus yard. These will be there for a long time.4 - The traffic of Route 1.E. Reed has essentially the same close in location but without the problems. The one draw back of E. Reed are the several dozen yet to be gentrified places on the street, and their residents.50% higher rent will change that.A half mile west, there's another Alexandria real estate mystery, Arlandria.How does Presidential Gardens avoid a condo conversion?
Lance said,It might never quite be an Old Town or a Georgetown, but it'll be damn near close ... and the million dollar mark will surely be surpased either by the next decade or shortly into it. Horseshit. 100% horseshit.
Leroy,You don't want to pay $1M to live in a duplex across the street from a superfund site? (Potomac Yard is polluted from the old rail yard) Shocking.
Harriet,3718 4th Street N. sold for $795K. The houst at 503 Nelson is nicer but I guess the initial high price spooked the market.
503 Nelson dropped again503 NELSON ST NARLINGTON VA, 22203$769,900.00
What I find interesting about the 503 N Nelson St property, beyond the fact that it is appraised at $700K and they tried to sell it for $850K, is that the previous owner bought it for $278K in 1991 and then sold it in 1997 for $280K.
Caveat,That was pretty common in Arlington circa 1997. Many condo owners were selling at a loss if they bought in the 88-91 timeframe.The tax assessment are always a bit lower than the sale price. In the old homes, it's even worse. The condos at least have similar units to compare (some of those 2005-2006 sales killed me). Even in 1997-2003, tax appraisals were at least 10% below market value. In my current house, the appraisal the year following my purchase was $50K less than the purchase price, and that was pretty typical with all my rentals too.I still can't believe 3718 4th St N. sold for $795K last month ($749K in 8/2006). 503 N. Nelson is nicer and has a better lot. Also, 512 N. Monroe sold for $1.4 Million.
Here are the year by year assessments of two properties in 22305. They graph out to the same shape. Flat to slightly falling in the 1990s and then in 2001 tracking back to the norm.Year, 44 E Reed, 319 Mansion 2007 $283,862 $3,493,900 2006 $253,200 $3,493,900 2005 $170,900 $3,478,700 2004 $140,200 $2,640,000 2003 $95,400 $2,200,000 2002 $75,700 $1,471,700 2001 $65,800 $891,800 2000 $59,000 $716,200 1999 $57,600 $663,900 1998 $58,100 $658,800 1997 $57,800 $646,400 1996 $58,300 $645,300 1995 $60,500 $644,900 1994 $62,500 $639,800 1993 $61,000 $586,400 1992 $59,400 $576,000 1991 $60,500 $587,800 Mansion drive goes flat in 2004 but E Reed continues up.This is from the city's DB.
Thanks for the info Bill.I saw a townhouse go on the market in Vienna this week at about $100K below comps and $30K below assessed value. The seller says they want a quick sale. By guess is that they will get it, because the townhouse is walk to metro.But if this sells at below assessed value and comps, I'm guessing this is going to be the new comp for this neighborhood and many like them.
I saw a townhouse go on the market in Vienna this week at about $100K above comps and $30K above assessed value. The seller says they can wait to get the price they want. My guess is that they will get it, because the townhouse is walk to metro.But if this sells at above assessed value and comps, I'm guessing this is going to be the new comp for this neighborhood and many like them.
Just making a point about cognitive dissonance ... ;)
"I saw a townhouse go on the market in Vienna this week at about $100K above comps and $30K above assessed value. The seller says they can wait to get the price they want. My guess is that they will get it, because the townhouse is walk to metro."What's the address?Let's track it and see what happens.
Caveat,I would be interested to investigate how that Vienna property sells. Do you have the address or MLS #?Thanks.
sounds like neither Ted nor Keith are understanding what cognitive dissonance is or how I've illustrated their cognitive dissonace by turning around their statements. OK ... I will be clearer ... Why would your statement, which is nothing but the inverse of mine, mean anything more than mine does? In simple English, you're 'grasping at straws' by pointing to anomolies as proof that your wishes are coming true ...
Lance,Can you read?I was asking Caveat for the actual listing because I am watching the Vienna market for my own needs next year.I was fully aware that you were bluffing and was not asking you at all.
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