Perhaps the Washington Post's recent report that August 2007 sales prices rose "25.7 percent in Arlington County, where condominium sales were strong," helped light a fire under potential sellers in Arlington County. According to ZipRealty, in the last seven days 149 houses were newly listed in Arlington, out of a total of 991 that currently are for sale. (Arlington's inventory will be interesting to keep an eye on).
A few things the Washington Post didn't mention about August's Arlington sales:
I'll post same-house "on the market" sales for Arlington County tomorrow. The new crop of sellers seem to be optimistic on asking prices.
12 comments:
Did Lance write that article?
Whoever wrote that article doesn't have a lot of critical thinking skills. Even without much of a background in statistics you should be able to recognize that something odd is going on with that data.
Leroy,
Here's a concept you might find interesting:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance
Kenneth does a good job explaining how in reality the foreclosure "mess" is largely irrelevant for most people. It's good reading for anyone who believes the problems in the subprime market will cause a general market collapse (and nose diving prices everywhere.)
Finding Bright Spots Among the Dark Clouds
By Kenneth R. Harney
Saturday, September 15, 2007; Page F01
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/14/AR2007091401154.html
Yeah, it looks like a desperate ploy by the writer. Sales fell by over 30% in Arlington.
Lance, let me try my hand at that link.
Wah-wahshington Post Article
Wow, that is a really awful article...
"On the other hand, it means 85.5 percent of subprime borrowers are still paying on time every month."
He acts like those are somehow acceptable numbers... it is obviously not the case that most people in this country are in danger of losing their homes. No one ever claimed that was the case.
At any given time the number of homes for sale is very small relative to the total number of homes that exist in a city. If even a few percent of the homes in an area go into foreclosure that will usually increase the total supply significantly.
"Here's a concept you might find interesting:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance"
Lance lance lance... what have I told you about trying to argue about things you don't understand?
You just make yourself look more silly.
The mystery behind lies in the monthly data.
In May of 2006, the median prices for homes in Arlington was $528,000. August of 2006 shows a median home price in the $400s, and then up again in August 2007 to $528,000.
The fact is home prices in Arlington have gone down since 2005.
Cognitive dissonance! Why justifications are nessesary. I cannot get thru a day without a juicy justification, I do not know anyone who can do without them. Anyone who says they do not justify thier thoughts or actions daily is a liar or crazy.
Now as to commitment, how do you know until you've made it.
Leroy,
The Post article is indeed embarrassingly bad. I posted the following comments on the Post's website:
-- Where's the other side in this article? Give Tanta or Roubini a call.
-- If things are going so swell, why are all the major homebuilders reporting huge reductions in buyer traffic and transactions through the NAHB index? Why are they warning on their earnings, quarter after quarter? At a recent conference call, Bob Toll said, "This past week was the worst week for traffic in our history."
-- Why can't this writer understand that homes are thinly traded assets, where less than 7% of existing homes are for sale at any one time? The writer mistakenly compares foreclosures to all existing houses rather than to the houses available for sale -- which is what determines value, i.e., marginal buyers and sellers.
-- Why does the writer attempt to take Occam's razor to AZ, CA, FL, and NV to convince us that things aren't so bad? That's reminiscent of the government telling us to ignore food and fuel prices to determine "core" inflation.
I could go on and on.
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