6408 HIGHAM DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $409,000
Prior Sale: $600,000 03/16/2006
Listing Date: 08/22/07
-31.8%
2205 SAUNDERS DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $252,000
Prior Sale: $348,500 01/04/2006
Listing Date: 08/22/07
-27.7%
1061 BURWICK DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $360,000
Prior Sale: $495,000 08/22/2005
Listing Date: 08/01/07
-27.3%
9408 LAKELAND FELLS LN
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $490,000
Prior Sale: $665,532 12/22/2005
Listing Date: 08/16/07
-26.4%
1108 BICKSLER DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $470,000 03/07/2006
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-25.6%
3553 ELLERY CIR
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22041
List Price: $519,900
Prior Sale: $690,540 04/19/2005
Listing Date: 06/16/07
-24.7%
3222 DYE DR
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $455,000
Prior Sale: $579,900 09/13/2005
Listing Date: 08/17/07
-21.5%
9096 PURVIS DR
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $605,000
Prior Sale: $742,845 11/01/2005
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-18.6%
11760 SUNRISE VALLEY DR #112
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $244,900
Prior Sale: $299,325 10/03/2006
Listing Date: 08/18/07
-18.2%
1204 MONROE ST
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $553,741
Prior Sale: $675,000 09/21/2005
Listing Date: 08/22/07
-18.0%
205 MEETING HOUSE STATION SQ #103
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $345,000 04/26/2006
Listing Date: 08/23/07
-16.0%
8428 GREAT LAKE LN
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22153
List Price: $399,000
Prior Sale: $470,500 05/25/2005
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-15.2%
13324 SCHWENGER PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $260,000
Prior Sale: $305,000 05/18/2005
Listing Date: 08/17/07
-14.8%
12128 GARDEN RIDGE LN #301
FAIRFAX, VA 22030
List Price: $297,700
Prior Sale: $348,900 03/15/2006
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-14.7%
4610 HUMMINGBIRD WAY #97
FAIRFAX, VA 22033
List Price: $424,000
Prior Sale: $486,838 07/01/2005
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-12.9%
4345 MAJESTIC LN
FAIRFAX, VA 22033
List Price: $419,900
Prior Sale: $470,000 09/29/2005
Listing Date: 08/21/07
-10.7%
14657 WINTERFIELD DR
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $389,999 07/08/2005
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-10.3%
5616 SHEALS LN
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $799,990
Prior Sale: $875,000 10/04/2005
Listing Date: 08/21/07
-8.6%
6108 GEORGE BAYLOR DR
CENTREVILLE, VA 20121
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $435,000 12/06/2005
Listing Date: 08/17/07
-8.1%
8093 GATEHOUSE RD #2
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $460,000
Prior Sale: $493,000 09/08/2005
Listing Date: 08/17/07
-6.7%
6829 KITE FLYER CT
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $399,000
Prior Sale: $425,000 11/02/2004
Listing Date: 08/22/07
-6.1%
6903 FERN LN
ANNANDALE, VA 22003
List Price: $520,000
Prior Sale: $550,000 07/29/2005
Listing Date: 08/23/07
-5.5%
2665 PROSPERITY AVE #318
FAIRFAX, VA 22031
List Price: $425,000
Prior Sale: $447,900 05/26/2006
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-5.1%
423 ARKANSAS AVE
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $390,000
Prior Sale: $410,000 08/18/2005
Listing Date: 08/17/07
-4.9%
11770 SUNRISE VALLEY DR #426
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $379,000
Prior Sale: $385,830 09/25/2006
Listing Date: 08/17/07
-1.8%
4705 EGGLESTON TER
FAIRFAX, VA 22030
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $383,202 08/31/2006
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-0.9%
11800 SUNSET HILLS RD #420
RESTON, VA 20190
List Price: $399,999
Prior Sale: $399,900 04/18/2005
Listing Date: 08/21/07
+0.0%
4469 PEMBROOK VILLAGE DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $300,000
Prior Sale: $298,000 09/22/2005
Listing Date: 08/20/07
+0.7%
8111 DOVE COTTAGE CT
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $534,900
Prior Sale: $528,150 11/02/2005
Listing Date: 08/17/07
+1.3%
4523 BILLINGHAM ST
FAIRFAX, VA 22030
List Price: $579,900
Prior Sale: $567,900 11/01/2005
Listing Date: 08/20/07
+2.1%
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Fairfax County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 11:47 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
17 comments:
Not surprised by the condos on Sunrise Valley in Reston. That building opened late '06 and it looks like there are still plenty of unsold condos. My feeling is that these condos are going to become the example of how much prices can fall. I expect them to tumble in the next 2 months as we head into the colder months and the builder needs to get them off his books.
I decided to look a little deeper into one of the properties, the townhouse on Ellery Circle in Falls Church.
This is yet another street of recently built townhouses littered with short sales and foreclosures.
Here are all of the units currently for sale on that street:
3506 ELLERY CIR - $604,900: "$65k price improvement**bank owned**end unit*never occupied**" [Purchased for $717,815 in 2006.]
3576 ELLERY CIR - $580,000: "Don't delay... Price s/l/a/s/h/e/d... A whopping $39,000... Bank owner wants this home sold now!!!" [Purchased for $700,000 in 2005.]
3571 ELLERY CIR - $629,500: "Bank-0wned end unit townhouse w/1 car garage" [Purchased for $656,100 in 2005, then for $712,000 in 2006.]
3507 ELLERY CIR - $629,900: "Brand new edgemont ryan luxury end unit townhome!" [Purchased for $655,000 in 2006.]
3500 ELLERY CIR - $620,000: "*make offer*lender will ratify contract*" [Purchased for $693,000 in 2006.]
3553 ELLERY CIR - $519,900: "priced to sell! *bank foreclosure*" [Purchased for $691,000 in 2005. The lowest priced unit in the development. Remember, lowest price sells first and sets comps.]
3559 ELLERY CIR - $659,900: "Great opportunity to own a property in falls church with a very exciting price." [Purchased for $652,000 in 2005. This seller obviously hasn't gotten the memo that the bubble is over. With the identical unit at 3553 above asking $519,900, this delusional seller hasn't a hope in the world.]
3565 ELLERY CIR - $699,000: "Just plain gorgeous!!!" [Purchased for $673,000 in 2005. Oops, make that two sellers that didn't get the memo.]
Of the 8 units currently for sale, 5 of them are foreclosures or short sales and 6 of them are selling for substantially less than the last sales price.
It's interesting to note that even if a buyer were interested at these reduced-but-still-overinflated prices, he would have difficulty obtaining financing due to the high number of foreclosures in the neighborhood.
I'd guess that their prices will ultimately drop to the low 200's by the time this bubble is fully deflated. As shocking as that sounds (to those still in denial, at least), that will bring prices back in line with their historical relationship with fundamentals such as rents.
If the prices for Ellery Circle townhomes in Falls Church drops to low 200's, then it would be like a price drop to year ~2000 level!!!
John F. said:
"I'd guess that their prices will ultimately drop to the low 200's by the time this bubble is fully deflated."
Yes, and your salary is going to go back to pre-2000 levels ... And traffic congestion is going to return to pre-2000 levels ... And the population levels are going to go back to pre-2000 levels ...
Prices are not going drop to 2000 levels in the DC area. The job market is way too strong and inside the beltway housing is at a premium.
That being said, I don't see people paying $800K for houses without a true master BR in my neighborhood (Ashton Heights) anymore. The condo market is also getting crushed because of all the flippers who "reserve" properties. I had a friend put down a deposit on a property that would have had a monthly mortgage payment (under a more traditional mortgage) that would have been nearly equal to her salary. She told me that it was a good idea to have 3/4 of her income tied up in a monthly payment! Yikes.
And the number of unoccupied dwellings will go back to the year 2000 levels.
Inside the beltway will always be the "place to be" when it comes to living in DC.
That being said, the biggest threat to the DC market, and markets everywhere, is the fact that most people that want to buy a house won't be able to - They won't qualify for the mortgage.
Sure, some folks will be able to qualify and buy a place, but nowhere near the number of people will be able to buy in the numbers that we saw in the past 4-5 years....the banks ain't gonna lend people the money.
I don't look for the housing mess to settle down until after the election (Nov. 2008) so were talking middle-end 2009 before the dust settles and it hits the official "bottom" where we turn a corner and start to REDUCE overall inventory as opposed to ADD more.
There are exceptions to the inventory number (inside the beltway being one of them) but overall inventory must start to decline on a large scale before "it's over."
I don't know whether the low 200's for those townhouses represent year 2000 prices or not. Back then you could buy a single family house in that area with a half acre of land for about $200,000, so i have my doubts.
Regardless, saying prices can't fall back to year 2000 levels "just because" is typical of the top-down, non-substantive approach to judging real estate values.
If one were to take a bottoms-up approach and crunch the numbers based on rents and historic average multiples of rent (i.e., an income approach to valuation), a low 200's valuation would be the result.
"crunch the numbers based on rents and historic average multiples of rent"
There're two troubling assumptions there.
1) Rents will not rise when leases reset.
2) The historic relationship means something.
Landlords who bought 10 years ago have a tiny "carrying cost". This distorts the rent-own equation.
The die-off of builders sets the stage for the next price rise.
"Rents will not rise when leases reset."
Rents may rise, but they are clearly not about to jump dramatically.
" The historic relationship means something."
Of course it means something. While not all real estate can be fairly valued using rent comparisons, they do work very well for a large portion of the market.
"Landlords who bought 10 years ago have a tiny "carrying cost". This distorts the rent-own equation. "
Of course they do, this has always been true though.
"The die-off of builders sets the stage for the next price rise."
Yep... in 5 or so years...
kh: "Landlords who bought 10 years ago have a tiny "carrying cost". This distorts the rent-own equation."
No matter how it came to be, as long as there are enough properties with affordable rent--the costs of owning have to make sense--if not, only the expectation of continued price rise can lead one to buy; and that is precisely what leads to a bubble.
When landlords tried to raise the rent this past spring, there were more vacancies, and they had to provide more incentives (say, 2 months of free rent), which pretty much negated any increase in rent. I know because I took advantage of it.
In my opinion, just because you are inside the beltway, doesn't mean the prices won't fall. For example, I live in Petworth , a very "transitional" DC neighborhood where the homes start at 450K unrenovated up to 700K. Assuming you pay 600K for a house here, you would need almost 90K in cash for a 10% down payment and a 200K salary if you going to be fiscally responsible.
How many people qualify for that? I am thinking not so many if almost half of the 05-06 mortgages were unconventional. And if they do, are they willing to live with the rats, trash and drugs? I think any fringe areas that heated up against fundamentals will cool equally even if they are inside the Beltway. When I do Zip searches for this area and areas close to me, almost half have reduced pricing.
Long winded way of repeating myself, this market will take some time to shake out. Numbers aren't reflecting the seller concessions and enticements, and houses are sitting. Mortgages are harder to qualify for, and jumbo rates are higher. I think it is way too early for the Post to be declaring that inside the beltway has recovered.
"Of course it means something. While not all real estate can be fairly valued using rent comparisons, they do work very well for a large portion of the market."
I didn't take the time to explain.
For whatever reason, there was a big price jump of valuations between 2001 and 2005. This is an anomaly and might distort the historic rules.
I believe that rents are low and will increase. Others believe that rents are correct and house prices are too high.
Until this shakes out, say in a year or two or five, the truth of the relationship is speculation and the rent-buy ratio means nothing.
In a sense, we are all gambling big bucks on our beliefs. I'm betting my place will hold it's value and not fall more than 15%, which is my estimate of the cost of a round trip. (Sales commissions, fix ups, moving, taxes, loan fees, etc.) Even if it were certain that prices would fall 15%, I would not sell. I don't need the aggravation of moving twice. I like it where I am.
Others are betting that prices won't rise another 10%, 20% in a year or two or three.
Kelly,
Petworth is an "edge area" just like PWC.
My definition of "edge area" being an area just being lapped by the wave of booming expansion. As happens when a wave moves out quickly, the areas where the edge of the wave laps up experience unsustainably high levels of water/prices, and then crash down again as the wave dissipates. Of course, with hindsight it's easy to see where the edge was/is .. But not so easy to see beforehand ... All areas of expansion (either in a "suburbs expanding" sense or in an "urban areas being rejuvenated" sense) are at one point "edge areas". If the expansion continues past them before the wave lets up, then they are set. If not, they are in trouble. Think of what happened to "East Dupont" (now known as Logan Circle) and Capital Hill in the pre-1990 expansion. Unfortunately, you in Petworth have just found yourself in the same situation as those who bought in Logan Circle in the late 80s. Which is bad for now ... But will eventually be good ... once the next round of "waves" comes back. But before you start complaining that you overpaid, recall not only that eventually it will right itself (and if you bought to live there and not to speculate, it shouldn't matter) but also that there's a reason you paid relatively little (as compared to more established areas), you were banking on the wave continuing long enough to see you through the urban rejuvenation process ... Just like those who sold to you were banking that it wouldn't. They won and you lost in this case. But just hold on, and it'll right itself like it did for the people who paid next to nothing for homes fronting Logan Circle back when it was known as "East Dupont" ...
Um, Lance, Kelly already explained that she bought in 2000 and sold in 2006. So it looks like you yourself are admitting she made the right move.
Keith,
You're so far behind the curve in understanding what is going on here ... and what I am saying ... that I am not going to waste much time explaining it to you.
Let's just say I can't agree with what Kelly is advocating, because Kelly is using her (his?) home as a means of gambling. (I.e., trying to "time" buying and selling --- and moving and packing --- to maximize return on investment.) And in the end, Kelly will find his (her?) self getting burned and not only losing the funds gambled ... but her/his home as well.
Lance,
I bought my house to live in, it was my first house and I loved it. I never anticipated that it would increase in value the way it did. Maybe I was too dumb to forecast, maybe the valuation wasn't normal. I sold my house in Richmond because I moved to DC for a job change and because I wanted to live here, not because I was timing the market
I rent in Petworth because I can rent an entire house for what a studio apartment in Dupont Circle would rent for, and probably half of what it would cost me to buy the house today. I would never pay a half a million dollars to live in this neighborhood. And yes, I've heard all the tax, throwing your money away on rent arguments. If I knew for sure I would be here for the next 10 years, I might do some homework and start lowballing houses outside of my price range, because yes I do believe in the long,long term, owning is better than renting because it is your home.
I am female, thanks for wondering, and I am sure everyone is tired of my life story. I read this blog and others because I find them informative, not inflammatory.
Post a Comment