5407 8TH ST S #5407
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $312,000
Prior Sale: $399,000 2/10/2006
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-21.8%
977 RANDOLPH ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $549,900
Prior Sale: $660,908 12/20/2006
Listing Date: 07/11/07
-16.8%
1758 RHODES ST N #339
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $294,900
Prior Sale: $341,600 8/17/2005
Listing Date: 08/15/07
-13.7%
223 GEORGE MASON DR #223-1
ARLINGTON, VA 22203
List Price: $209,900
Prior Sale: $235,000 1/11/2006
Listing Date: 08/17/07
-10.7%
4512 4TH RD N
ARLINGTON, VA 22203
List Price: $620,000
Prior Sale: $675,000 5/16/2006
Listing Date: 07/21/07
-8.1%
750 DICKERSON ST #6
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $210,000
Prior Sale: $225,000 2/25/2005
Listing Date: 08/20/07
-6.7%
2510 2ND ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $399,900
Prior Sale: $421,000 3/11/2005
Listing Date: 08/16/07
-5.0%
1021 GARFIELD ST. N #526
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $609,000
Prior Sale: $619,900 8/04/2005
Listing Date: 07/16/07
-1.8%
1021N GARFIELD ST #120
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $388,900
Prior Sale: $388,900 7/29/2005
Listing Date: 07/10/07
+0.0%
5716 WILSON BLVD
ARLINGTON, VA 22205
List Price: $549,000
Prior Sale: $549,000 8/1/2005
Listing Date: 08/15/07
+0.0%
1021 GARFIELD ST N #230
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $499,900
Prior Sale: $492,400 6/24/2005
Listing Date: 08/15/07
+1.5%
4672 36TH ST S #B
ARLINGTON, VA 22206
List Price: $439,900
Prior Sale: $432,000 6/29/2004
Listing Date: 08/16/07
+1.8%
1011 ARLINGTON BLVD #436
ARLINGTON, VA 22209
List Price: $163,500
Prior Sale: $147,000 9/16/2004
Listing Date: 08/19/07
+11.2%
1021 ARLINGTON BLVD #309
ARLINGTON, VA 22209
List Price: $205,000
Prior Sale: $184,000 5/13/2005
Listing Date: 08/19/07
+11.4%
2700 13TH RD S #380
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $323,900
Prior Sale: $289,900 11/10/2004
Listing Date: 08/14/07
+11.7%
1200 HARTFORD ST N #507
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $589,900
Prior Sale: $525,000 12/22/2004
Listing Date: 08/16/07
+12.4%
2412 ARLINGTON BLVD
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $549,900
Prior Sale: $485,000 10/20/2006
Listing Date: 08/18/07
+13.4%
2594 ARLINGTON MILL DR S #A
ARLINGTON, VA 22206
List Price: $298,500
Prior Sale: $255,000 8/23/2004
Listing Date: 08/18/07
+17.1%
1106 EDISON ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $490,000
Prior Sale: $415,000 3/30/2007
Prior sale: $432,000 6/15/2005
Listing Date: 08/19/07
+18.1%
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Arlington County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 9:03 PM
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22 comments:
Both sets of housing tracker data are showing big drops this week. It appears that price drops are picking up speed as we head towards fall and winter.
It will be interesting to see if they continue to fall at this pace.
The key for Arlington and Alexandria City is the jumbo spread, still fairly wide. If jumbo rates stay close to 8%, then price reductions will occur. Current prices reflect jumbo rates between 6 and 6.5%
The way-out stuff is falling but the close-in is rising.
That's not a bubble bustin', that's just the cost of commuting.
kh,
The close in stuff is flat at best. It isn't rising.
Yes, it is flat but it depends on your meaning of flat. The Arlington numbers "seem" flat. There are too few that are actually in the minus column to tell the story.
A few negatives may have been overpriced in the 2006 mania.
There are many places that are priced higher. Some may have been upgraded for resale, so that could still be a loss. Without examining each place, we don't know what the story is.
Close in, however, is clearly different from PWC, Manassas, Loudon, etc.
At worse, 2007 Alexandria and Arlington are "flat" compared to 2005 or 2006, with some indications of rises in the data.
Places 20 or miles out have clearly fallen. The farther out, the greater the fall. That is clear from the data.
This corresponds to the doubling of gasoline prices. Another factor is that suburbian and exurbian places tend to be larger and many are more costly to heat and cool.
My electric bill for June and July was under $30. This is running one window airconditioner.
While you could cool one room of a 4,000 sqft suburban mcmansion, most folks are just turning the thermostats of their dual compressor systems up to 78 degrees, which is still expensive.
I think we have another year of plunging prices in the suburbs but not for the close in places. I think we've seen the worse of it in Alexandria and Arlington, which is no increases but no plunge either.
After that, who knows. My guess is that prices will gradually rise.
In a year or two, I expect we'll all be "Lance's".
I'd say KH is doing some wishful thinking, but is at least trying to be reasonable.
We've seen big declines outside the beltway, and also big declines in certain Arlington zip codes like 22204, Alexandria zip codes like 22304, and DC zip codes like 20001, which is not explainable by gas prices. In fact, now we're seeing some big price declines in condos right by the Braddock metro.
We've also seen fluctuating gas prices in the past without massive declines in outer-area house prices, so that's a desperately thin reed to hang the explanation of crashing outer-area prices on.
We have a bubble that keeps moving inward, from the more marginal areas to the better ones. In addition, we have the bulk of ARM resets still coming and the bigger spread on jumbos hitting demand. All of that adds up to pain in the inner areas. Maybe not the same jaw-dropping crash as in the outer areas, but definitely price declines.
I think we're all too smart to be "Lances," either today or in a year or two. Perhaps it will be a good (or not bad) time to buy in a year or two, but we'd know that because we're smarter than the "Lances" of the world, because we do anlysis instead of wishful thinking.
Keith said:
"I think we're all too smart to be "Lances," either today or in a year or two. Perhaps it will be a good (or not bad) time to buy in a year or two, but we'd know that because we're smarter than the "Lances" of the world, because we do anlysis instead of wishful thinking."
Keith, if you really were smart, you'd already have done the analysis necessary to get yourself into an affordable house ... instead of waiting around and wishfully thinking that you'll get handed something for nothing through the sheer chance of market changes favorable to you.
The "Lance's" of the world don't rely on wishful thinking. They actually do the analysis and get on with it rather than sitting on their duffs hoping "for someday".
kh is definitely doing wishful thinking. How can people who cannot afford the gas prices afford closer-in homes, albeit ones with less space?
Gas prices play an insignificant role in prices staying flat in closer-in areas. Bubble equity, "can't happen here" psychology and beltway banditry from defense contracts are the major reasons. Of course commuting time is also a factor.
But all these factors will change when the credit crunch escalates into a full blown crisis and defense spending falls off.
Check out page 7 of this, summary
That's reality.
Talking about jumbo spreads, future price drops picking up speed, ARM resets, that's all fantasy until it happens and it has an effect on both the pool of sellers and buyers.
The gas thing is real. It might not be real to you but people are griping about it. It might not be the reason that close-in (inside the beltway) places are holding value and the mcmansions way out there are not, but what's the difference?
That close-in prices have not plunged is fact and that's the point. That's why Lance is living close in.
That doesn't prove that close in prices won't soften in the future but it's very, very unlikely.
Fantasy is thinking that someone will sell their premium real estate holding to you for a song.
That's not going to happen because someone else will outbid you.
Of course, close-in places aren't holding their value; they are falling in price. You can see that in the difference between today's asking prices and the prices that comps in those areas closed at 1-2 years ago. You can buy the same condos in the same buildings for 15-20% less than people paid for them 1-2 years ago. I'm talking about close-in areas. And that's before the resets and the jumbos spreads hit. It's ovah.
"Talking about jumbo spreads, future price drops picking up speed, ARM resets, that's all fantasy until it happens"
You've gotta love somebody who actually BRAGS about their myopia.
Keith said:
"You've gotta love somebody who actually BRAGS about their myopia."
Your projecting again ...
Honestly, if you want to do yourself a lot of good, you've got to stand back and access the situation realistically and not as you would like it to be. Hoping to set yourself right sheerly through the bad fortune of others isn't going to get you anywhere.
Those are Lance whines number 1 and 2 combined. See a later thread for a guide to Lance's whines.
"You've gotta love somebody who actually BRAGS about their myopia."
whoa, I give you a link to substantive data and you retreat to insubstantive name calling????
Did any of you look at the report? Alexandria went flat to slightly falling in 2006-2007 except where prices rose.
Given that you're all priced out of the market now, it's probable that you will be priced out tomorrow and for all time.
I'm not taunting you. I'm just pointing out a harsh reality.
Here are some other points. Most folks who own aren't interested in selling or flipping. It's primarily the people who built-to-sell or are doing condo conversions who are selling.
A whole lot of them have shut down because you've been yelling "Bubble!" since 2002. There are places in the pipeline but when they're done, there will be no new places until well into the next boom.
Another possible reason that places way-the-heck out there have fallen about 20% ($1 Million down to $8 Hundred Thousand) is, that's the only place that builders can build in quantity.
Once those are sold off, the builders will lay their crews off.
You're thinking, "eventually someone will feel like selling close in, then I will snap it up."
Unfortunately others are thinking that too. There are lots of people who would love to own, close in. If it's not the 10 minute commute, it's the entertainment, the city lifestyle, or the services.
Suppose a nice, close-in place becomes available. You might think, "Da bubble is bustin', I'll wait for it to drop."
Suppose they drop the price 5%, how many others are watching and want to buy?
How many folks have decided that they have better things to do than drive 3 hours a day?
How many times have you read some bubblehead saying, "Just wait. eventually I will be right and I will buy a place at my price?
If that's you, hope that your price is higher than the next bubblehead's price.
kh,
Thanks for posting the link to Alexandria City's property assessment report here.
It's a great report for showing residential property price changes in individual areas around the city from 2006-2007. But I must be seeing something different on that Alexandria report than you are. On page 9, it shows 15 separate regions of Alexandria. I see four regions with gains, and three of those are under 1%. The biggest rise in price was in Zone 3, and that's 3%. The rest of the areas are showing price decreases.
On page 6, it shows that residential prices decreased by 2.9%.
The commercial property tax base increased greatly, however. But some are predicting drops in that area.
On August 24, Steven Pearlstein had an article in the Washington Post Business section called "Commercial Real Estate, Come On Down."
"Here's the next shoe to drop as a result of the bursting of the credit bubble: commercial real estate."
"Given that you're all priced out of the market now, it's probable that you will be priced out tomorrow and for all time.
I'm not taunting you. I'm just pointing out a harsh reality."
Er, actually, you're just pointing out your own biases and stereotypes.
It's a shame. You had a chance to show I was wrong on the myopia comment, but it turns out you proved me right.
Harriet actually READ the report you linked to and found this:
"On page 6, it shows that residential prices decreased by 2.9%."
This shows us that you didn't carefully read the report, you just went and found a quote that you believed supported your position, and then your confirmation bias took over.
Again, it's important to learn the difference between analysis and wishful thinking.
Me, I believe much of the price increase, especially 2000- end of 2003/early 2004 is justified by underlying rent growth. But beyond that, you had an unsustainable bubble. And sure enough, we're seeing reversion to that mean, even in inner areas.
Keith, Harriet, reread what I wrote about the city report.
"Alexandria went flat to slightly falling in 2006-2007 except where prices rose."
I define define slightly falling to mean down 2.9%.
(Mostly) flat to slightly falling except (the exceptional areas) where prices rose.
This might be over Keith's head but the sensible members of this forum will recognize precise writing.
You might call down 2.9% a crash but think about it. It's a small drop on, say, an eight hundred thousand dollar home. If you can't afford 800K, you can't afford 776K.
If you can't afford it, you are priced out of the market.
In any case, those are the numbers for 2006, published in early 2007, those numbers do not represent the current market.
WaPo says that the numbers are UP since then.
I don't want to be cruel but I've been on the Internet long enough to recognize certain personalities. Keith is a keyboard slapper, fast to argue, trite comments, frequently misses the point, but always says that he's got you now.
Most of the time, other forum participants aren't sure what he's going on about. Some are too polite to call him on it.
Just in, Yahoo is reporting that rents are climbing. Lance gets it right again!
kh said:
"I don't want to be cruel but I've been on the Internet long enough to recognize certain personalities. Keith is a keyboard slapper, fast to argue, trite comments, frequently misses the point, but always says that he's got you now."
It's not being cruel ... it's tough love. He's only as confident as he is, because he really doesn't have a clue as to what is going on around him. He's invented a fantasy world to provide him comfort from the harsh realities that surround him. I mean, imagine knowing you are stuck in that 2 bit rental property forever ...
In his fantasy world everyone else loses so that he may gain. Tough Love is making him face the truth so that he can start swimming out of the fast moving current to nowhere he's so willingly thrown himself into ... Before it swallows him whole ... twirling him down the drain ... just like when one flushes the toilet ...
Wow, KH really is projecting big time with the keyboard slapper thing.
He links to an article on rents that doesn't ever mention DC.
And he gets mad at people for using leading indicators.
He also totally undermines himself by trying to boost a desperate little troll.
Poor KH.
I'll just be ignoring his posts from here on in.
"U.S. home prices fell 3.2% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday.
It's the largest decline ever in the 20-year history of the Case-Shiller home price index. A year ago, home prices were rising at a 7.5% pace nationally.
"The pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down," said Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, which computes the price index for S&P.
Meanwhile, prices fell 3.5% in the past year in 20 major cities and 4.1% in 10 major cities."
It was just fantasy until it happened!
3.2%!!!! LOL ... in a WHOLE year! LOL
That's a bubble bursting? LOL
I doubt this chump change "discount" will mean much to those waiting on the sideline ... Especially given that now lending standards have tightened ... and consequently, it costs more to borrow ...
Um, Lance, didn't you say you wouldn't be responding to my posts? You're so compulsive, you can't predict what you yourself will do. You can't even be right about your own actions.
Oh, and DC fell 7%.
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