1400 OLDE TOWNE RD
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22307
List Price: $300,000
Prior Sale: $435,000 08/01/2005
Listing Date: 07/18/07
-31.0%
661 PEMBERTON CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $351,900
Prior Sale: $507,000 11/07/2005
Listing Date: 07/20/07
-30.6%
5815 CHANNING RD
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $360,000
Prior Sale: $499,000 11/21/2005
Listing Date: 07/16/07
-27.9%
6309 DANA AVE
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $415,000
Prior Sale: $559,000 10/07/2005
Listing Date: 07/13/07
-25.8%
1229 BOND ST
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $335,000
Prior Sale: $450,000 04/19/2006
Listing Date: 07/21/07
-25.6%
5502 HOLLINS LN
BURKE, VA 22015
List Price: $319,000
Prior Sale: $419,900 08/18/2006
Listing Date: 07/18/07
-24.0%
109 MELODY LN
VIENNA, VA 22180
List Price: $469,900
Prior Sale: $599,500 07/20/2006
Listing Date: 06/06/07
-21.6%
8642 VILLAGE SQ #13/864
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $227,905
Prior Sale: $287,000 01/31/2006
Listing Date: 02/22/07
-20.6%
3229 NEALON DR
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $437,000
Prior Sale: $537,500 03/09/2006
Listing Date: 02/08/07
-18.7%
8014 NORTHUMBERLAND RD
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22153
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $436,000 04/19/2006
Listing Date: 07/21/07
-17.5%
1408 CELESTA CT
VIENNA, VA 22182
List Price: $700,000
Prior Sale: $831,000 08/24/2006
Listing Date: 07/02/07
-15.8%
14840 HANCOCK CT
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $324,900
Prior Sale: $385,000 07/20/2005
Listing Date: 07/19/07
-15.6%
8911 WAITES WAY
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $319,900
Prior Sale: $374,000 01/26/2006
Listing Date: 06/19/07
-14.5%
7248 HILLMEAD CT
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $359,900
Prior Sale: $420,000 12/05/2005
Listing Date: 07/18/07
-14.3%
6921 MARY CAROLINE CIR #L
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $279,900
Prior Sale: $325,000 07/24/2006
Listing Date: 07/20/07
-13.9%
1319 SPRINGTIDE PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $299,000
Prior Sale: $340,000 07/01/2005
Listing Date: 07/19/07
-12.1%
705 MORNINGSIDE CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $420,000
Prior Sale: $471,000 04/19/2005
Listing Date: 07/16/07
-10.8%
904 KRAMER CT SE
VIENNA, VA 22180
List Price: $639,900
Prior Sale: $715,000 07/27/2005
Listing Date: 07/06/07
-10.5%
7896 GODOLPHIN DR
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22153
List Price: $579,900
Prior Sale: $640,000 08/15/2005
Listing Date: 07/17/07
-9.4%
12604 MILLBANK WAY
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $379,900
Prior Sale: $415,000 06/01/2005
Listing Date: 07/19/07
-8.5%
8399 FERN LEAF CT
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22153
List Price: $370,000
Prior Sale: $390,000 09/13/2005
Listing Date: 07/16/07
-5.1%
5123 TRAVIS EDWARD WAY #E
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $228,000
Prior Sale: $240,000 12/15/2004
Listing Date: 06/08/07
-5.0%
1014 SABER LN
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $295,000
Prior Sale: $299,900 08/31/2004
Listing Date: 07/18/07
-1.6%
Saturday, July 21, 2007
Fairfax County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 11:34 PM
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9 comments:
Amazing how the Realtor associations are able to say that the market has only adjusted downward ever so slightly. Maybe 1-2% of a "cooling off," meanwhile, here are people with 30% price drops.
Mind you that doesn't mean they lost 30%. They probably put only 5-20% down, so they lost EVERYTHING PLUS more than they put in. The power of leverage works both ways!
There's always going to be the anamoly or the "not arms length transaction" that can be made to appear like it is a trend when posted in isolation. I'm sure the same could be done to prove that 300% appreciation occured. The problem is this isn't an "average" sales/selling price or even a "median" sales/selling price. It is a "cherry picked" sales/selling price. It isn't worth the electrodes it is printed on.
lance,
While it is true that this is cherry-picked, it does show that the mania about real estate is slowly giving way to reality and it is only a matter of time (maybe 1--3 years is a guess) before the averages reflect the trend.
And it does give the lie to claims by realtors that real estate prices only stagnate and never fall 30--40%.
You sound like a shill for the NAR?
tedk said:
"You sound like a shill for the NAR?"
No, I'm not. I'm just a homeowner who has been around the block (and through housing cycles) several times. There's nothing going on here that we haven't seen before.
You say: "real estate is slowly giving way to reality and it is only a matter of time (maybe 1--3 years is a guess) before the averages reflect the trend."
But again, these listings aren't the trend. They are the anomolies. They mean nothing. Zilch. Like I said, one could pull the anomolies from the other side of the range and "prove" 300% appreciation. But that would mean nothing too. The reality out there is that average and median prices have fallen only in areas and market segments where they've fallen in past cycles. I.e., in condos and in new developments ... which is precisely where during the hype of a boom, the builders would be building. As the down cycle begins, it takes a while to finish what was already in the works and that means the supply is too great and prices fall ... But only until the equilibrium returns. You'll note that for single family homes and established areas, there hasn't been a drop. In some locales like the District and inner suburbs prices have continued to escalate in these areas.
lance,
Your observations are valid in certain respects, but do you mean to say Herndon, Centreville, Chantilly and Fairfax are not 'established' areas?
Prices have indeed come down in these areas. It is true that a sharp drop is yet to come. The Bear Stearns Hedge Fund collapse, the collapse of Builders' stock valuations and the listings that Harriet provides are just an early stage of such a drop.
You may have been through many cycles, but the last few years were not anything like you have seen before. So, why should one believe the outcome of the downcycle will be like what you have seen before?
With many people still in denial (and many buyers coming into the market with bubble-equity from their former homes), it is not surprising prices in some areas are still resistant to a fall.
What you mean as 'equilibrium' is that markets will eventually be aligned with the fundamentais. It has always been so, and any honest economist with no conflict of interest will tell you that for fundamentals to be aligned, there has to be a big drop.
Lance,
To answer some of your concerns:
1. It's my opinion that average and median prices are more misleading than same-house sales. Since I'm not a database programmer and I don't have access to county databases or proprietary Zillow data, I can't present a whole picture of same-house sales in this region over time. The S&P/Case-Shiller index does a better job of that, but they lump every county in our region into one big MSA. So that doesn't help the people in Prince William County get a feeling for what prices are doing, when counties like Montgomery in MD and DC proper is lumped into the mix.
2. I would love it if someone like you could pull the "anomalies" out of the other end and find 300% price increases since 2005. The more data the better for all. The reason I created this blog was to provide some extra data about Northern VA that didn't exist online.
3. There's no quesiton that the market is better for the inner suburbs. But they are beginning to show signs of strain, too. When I first created this blog it was called the "Greater Northern Virginia Housing Bubble Fallout" because I was concerned about the masses (like me) who moved out further to catch a break on price, only to find a flipping frenzy all around them. I started to cover closer-in regions because readers were interested. If another blogger wanted to blog about same-house sales in those areas in more detail, it would certainly be helpful.
Lance go back to bubblemeter. Oh wait, that guy has given up (on blogging regularly, not the bubble).
You are probably correct about the cherry-picked nature of the data, but check the archive--this list is getting very long and hard to simply dismiss.
Unlike most HBers, I agree with your position that some areas of the DC metro may do OK. By some areas I mean: a particular condo building, a development, a house overlooking the river. But these will be the exception. This market is tanking right before your eyes and you refuse to see it!
Is there a chance that maybe you are wrong?
Cherry-picked or not, the owners of these properties wouldn't be asking for so much less than the last purchase price if they didn't have to. And that is entirely the point - they have to. They have to because no one was willing to pay more.
And when no one is willing to pay more than these substantially reduced prices, that means that the other sellers who haven't lowered their prices in these neighborhoods won't find buyers at their higher asking prices.
As we all know, (all other factors being equal) the lowest price wins in the sales game. Therefore, the practical extension of this "cherry-picked" data is that these homes will set new comps and, therefore, establish new current market prices.
As a side note, I'll leave it up to everyone to figure out whether they think Lance has any real interest in the truth as it relates to current house prices.
"I would love it if someone like you could pull the "anomalies" out of the other end and find 300% price increases since 2005."
Lance? Are you getting that data together?
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