961 RANDOLPH ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $649,900
Prior Sale: $713,235 11/29/2006
Listing Date: 03/31/07
-8.9%
801 GREENBRIER ST S #405
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $398,000
Prior Sale: $432,541 6/1/2005
Listing Date: 02/16/07
-8.0%
4500 FOUR MILE RUN DR S #712
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $380,000
Prior Sale: $389,000 4/28/2006
Listing Date: 07/11/07
-2.3%
1021 GARFIELD ST N #434
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $409,900
Prior Sale: $409,900 7/5/2005
Listing Date: 07/07/07
+0.0%
1021N GARFIELD ST #120
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $395,000
Prior Sale: $388,900 7/29/2005
Listing Date: 07/10/07
+1.6%
1021 GARFIELD ST N #641
ARLINGTON, VA 22201
List Price: $629,000
Prior Sale: $594,900 7/22/2005
Listing Date: 05/26/07
+5.7%
2200 WESTMORELAND ST N #217
ARLINGTON, VA 22213
List Price: $529,900
Prior Sale: $491,090 10/24/2006
Listing Date: 02/08/07
+7.9%
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Arlington County -- On the Market
Posted by Harriet at 6:21 PM
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11 comments:
This is consistent with what I've seen. The close-in portions of NoVa that have Metro access, shops, and restaurants are not being hit too hard by the RE slowdown ocurring elsewhere. I'd include in this category portions of N. Arl, Alexandria (Old Town, Del Ray, Beverly Hills), and FC City. It's been relatively flat for the past two years, whereas PWC, Loudon, and far flung portions of Fairfax are getting clobbered.
I agree, based on what I've seen, with even a modest increase for SFHs and townhomes on the Orange Line. Some of the generic condos in ballston/clarendon have taken a hit, but at least they have an always-strong rental market.
Interestingly, there are plans underway for even more buildings along the orange line, primarily in clarendon and virginia square areas where a lot of the used car lots are. Not clear if it will be offices, condos or both.
I believe that the more desirable areas will also be hit as time goes on. Here's one example:
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/rfs/372691257.html
The person who bought this property paid $520,000 for it a few months ago. Obviously hadn't heard the news.
Closer tends to equal less time in the car and folks are willing to pay a premium for that. But normal prices plus premium need to be affordable and they're clearly not.
In fairness, that house is in the county part of Falls Church and not near a metro--i.e., nothing particularly special about it. I was referring to Orange Line and north arlington properties.
It is an historical fact that residences close to many DC METRO access cost much more. I do not expect that to change with the "correction."
Since I do not work in the District, renting or buying near a METRO have no importance.
I still can't get my head around people buying junk SFHs or cramped condos for large sums of money regardless of where the dwellings are located.
Space, comfort and surroundings mean as much as convenience to me. Maybe more. People have differing opinions on what a "home" is or should be.
Good comments from everyone.
Just wanted to add that prices of homes close to the Vienna Metro did fall or stagnate between 1992 and 2000. So once the dust settles, my guess is that will happen even in close-in areas like N. Arlignton and FC City.
I can't understand why prices remain so high in FC City--I don't find anything remarkable about that area and incomes aren't too high for government workers. I know people are willing to pay a premium for the George Mason Hugh School there and the WFC Metro, but the other schools like Marshall are not highly ranked. And I can't stand the traffic on Rte 7.
I think there is a pretty substantial difference between a commute on the Vienna metro and a commute from Clarendon. Plus, even if you live close to a Metro in Fairfax, you will generally have two cars and the same transport-related expenses as if you were not near a metro; while in Arlington being truly waklable to metro and shops on Wilson allows families to have one car, with significant savings.
fd,
That is true about Arlington. But what I have problems with the view that prices can't come down in Arlington is that the huge rise in prices in the past few years occurred in the context of a nationwide rise in prices...even areas with no desirable qualities rose too high. And even such areas haven't come down yet to a justifiable level, although the downward trend has started.
So I view prices holding up or increasing in close-in areas as a sign that psychology hasn't changed fully, that many still think real estate always goes up--at worst stays flat. Even after I show the areas where there has been 30--40% decline, they say buying a house even at peak in such areas is still better than renting because they 'build' equity and own something.
When people lose $100K's and still think they are building equity because somehow real estate will continue to generate 20% annual returns in the future, that is sheer madness!
There is something seriously wrong with mass psychology about real estate and it is going to take a long time before the truth sinks in.
Of course prices could come down in Arlington--they could come down anywhere. My point was that Arlington has certain intrinsic qualities not found in most of Fairfax, PWC, Loudoun, etc., which can be fairly interchangeable. I think the Metro really puts a floor under prices to a large degree.
fd,
your point is probably true. I think Arlington will still command a higher price than the surrounding areas as prices come down, especially for the population that commutes into D.C. Many do not commute into D.C., and for them the Metro is irrelevant, but that's another thread.
On another blog (guess which one) someone predicted that the prices will come down in the outer outskirts first, work its way inward to the city center, then work its way back out away from the center. If that prediction holds true, then first Loudon & PWC will see declining prices, then Fairfax County, then inside the beltway incl. Arlington, then Fairfax (again), then Loudon & PWC (again).
If this holds true, then we're still in the very early stages of the price declines.
Agree that Arlington is worthless--overprices badly--for anyone who does not commute to DC. Disagree about geographic situs of price declines. It is a neighborhood by neighborhood thing. Mt. Vernon area of Alexandria has seen surge in inventory and price drops, whereas Great Falls (much worse commute) and McLean (same commute) have not. I think the theory is that the slowdown happens first, and most severely, in the newer, less stable areas, and then works its way in like a wave, modulating in turn. I don't think anyone, for example, thinks Langly/CC Hills/Lyon Village are going to see major price drops at all--not surprisingly--the best areas hold their value (and also perhaps had a lesser run up in value in the 02-05 period).
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