Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 2/1/2012

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S&P/Case-Shiller® November Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of November was released today.

The Reuters headline is that prices dropped unexpectedly.

"'Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall. Weakness was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. 'The only positive for the month was Phoenix, one of the hardest hit in recent years. Annual rates were little better as 18 cities and both Composites were negative. Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/25/2012

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/20/2012

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/16/2012

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/10/2012

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Northern Virginia Inventory Update

Here's an inventory update -- the statistics are from Virginia MLS. It begins in March 2005 and ends on November 1, 2011. Available inventory on January 3 was 5,333 available properties, a decrease of 300 properties from two days ago.

Here's the link to the whole spreadsheet.

S&P/Case-Shiller® October Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of October was released on December 27th.

"'There was weakness in the monthly statistics, as 19 of the cities posted price declines in October over September,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. 'Eleven of the cities and both composites fell by 1.0% or more during the month. And even though some of the annual rates are improving, 18 cities and both Composites are still negative. Nationally, home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.0% and the 20-City is down 3.4% compared to October 2010.'

'In the October data, the only good news is some improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices, with 14 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve. The crisis low for the 10-City Composite was back in April 2009; whereas it was a more recent March 2011 for the 20-City Composite. The 10-City Composite is about 2.4% above its relative low, and the 20-City Composite is about 1.9%.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/16/2011

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"The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged six former top executives of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) with securities fraud, alleging they knew and approved of misleading statements claiming the companies had minimal holdings of higher-risk mortgage loans, including subprime loans."

Northern Virginia's November Housing Sales

Northern Virginia's November 2011 housing sales were down 16% YoY, and median prices were up 2.1% to $357,500. The average days on the market increased by 10% to 65 days.

(The above statistics include Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County).

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/10/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/6/2011

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S&P/Case-Shiller® September Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of September was released yesterday.

"'Home prices drifted lower in September and the third quarter,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. 'The National Index was down 3.9% versus the third quarter of 2010 and up only 0.1% from the previous quarter. Three cities posted new index lows in September 2011 -- Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites were down for the month. Over the last year home prices in most cities drifted lower. The plunging collapse of prices seen in 2007-2009 seems to be behind us. Any chance for a sustained recovery will probably need a stronger economy.'

'Detroit and Washington DC posted positive annual rates of change and also saw an improvement in these rates compared to August. Only New York, Portland and Washington DC posted positive monthly returns versus August. It is a bit disturbing that we saw three cities post new crisis lows. For the prior three or four months, only Las Vegas was weakening each month. Now Atlanta and Phoenix have fallen to new lows too. On a monthly basis, Atlanta actually posted a record low rate of -5.9% in September over August. The markets are fairly thin, and the relative lack of closed transactions might be exacerbating the downside. The relative good news is that 14 cities saw improvements in their annual rates of change, versus the six that weakened.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 11/28/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 11/23/2011

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I saw this listing today. I assume this is for people who feel insecure without a garage under them at any point.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 11/22/2011

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China Property Dip Sparks Bank Fears.

Northern Virginia Inventory Update

Here's an inventory update -- the statistics are from Virginia MLS. It's a little quirky -- I read it from right to left. It begins in March 2005 and ends on November 1, 2011. Available inventory on November 21st was 7,069, a significant decrease from the beginning of the month.

Here's the link to the whole spreadsheet.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 11/15/2011

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Northern Virginia's October Housing Sales

Northern Virginia's October 2011 housing sales were down 13.4% YoY, and median prices were up 2.6% to $347,750. The average days on the market increased by 18% to 66 days.

(The above statistics include Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County).

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 11/4/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 11/1/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/31/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/28/2011

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I appreciated Peter Schiff standing up to the "there is no crisis" punditry who were literally laughing out loud at him in 2004 and 2005 on news shows.

Another "bubble" up for discussion is the college loan bubble, which Peter Schiff talks about with his own opinions, starting at 3:04.



Here's a link to the opening of a TIME Magazine article entitled "I Owe U," which pictures a young man with $67,000 in student debt, but he has a B.A. in "Special Studies" to show for it. It's one thing to give up your house and move on, but student loan debts are like taxes - inescapable. Should we call those who loaned this student the money "irresponsible lenders?"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/27/2011

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S&P/Case-Shiller® August Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of August was released yesterday.

"'There was some weakness in the monthly statistics, as 10 of the cities post price declines in August over July,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. 'And even though the annual rates are largely improving, 18 MSAs and both Composites are still negative. Nationally, home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.5% and the 20-City is down 3.8% compared to August 2010.'

'In the August data, the good news is continued improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices. In spring and summer’s seasonally strong period for housing demand, we cautioned that monthly increases in prices had to be paired with improvement in annual rates before anyone could declare that the market might be stabilizing. With 16 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve in August, we see a modest glimmer of hope with these data. As of August 2011, the crisis low for the 10-City Composite was back in April 2009; whereas it was a more recent March 2011 for the 20-City Composite. Both are about 3.9% above their relative lows.'

'...As seen in our past few monthly reports, there were large revisions across some of the MSAs. In particular, Washington DC was the most affected in August. Additional sale pairs data for May - July 2011 in the Washington DC MSA were received this month and resulted in the revisions.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/25/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/21/2011

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Hoocoodanode?

"If you look at Cash for Clunkers or the first home buyer tax credit, they were geared to trying to shift [recovery] from 2010 into 2009. Given it’s taken this long [to recover], I don’t think you would do that short-run stuff,” Goolsbee added.

Yup - It's Different Here

From Bloomberg: "Federal employees whose compensation averages more than $126,000 and the nation’s greatest concentration of lawyers helped Washington edge out San Jose as the wealthiest U.S. metropolitan area, government data show."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/19/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/17/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/13/2011

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Northern Virginia's September Housing Sales

Northern Virginia's September 2011 housing sales were down 7.4% YoY, and median prices were up 3.6% to $362,450. The average days on the market increased by 15% to 60 days.

(The above statistics include Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County).

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/4/2011

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S&P/Case-Shiller® July Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of July was released yesterday.

"'With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. 'This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities. The exceptions were Las Vegas and Phoenix where prices fell, while Denver was flat. The better news is that 14 of 20 cities and both Composites saw their annual rates of change improve in July.'

'While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites are showing that home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.7% and the 20-City is down 4.1% compared to July 2010. Continued increases in home prices through the end of the year and better annual results must materialize before we can confirm a housing market recovery.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 9/26/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 9/19/2011

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Apparently, U.S. home builder's confidence worsened in September, going from gloomy to slightly more gloomy.

Northern Virginia's housing inventory is at 8,109 available listings as of September 16th, which are lower still than last year at this time when there were 8,842 available houses. It could be shaping up to be an interesting spring market for sellers if inventory doesn't improve.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 9/12/2011

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 9/6/2011

Happy back-to-work day, all. Wall Street should have stayed closed or something. Is anyone out there taking advantage of these low interest rates?

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 9/6/2011

Well, we're in for a rainy week and not much is newsworthy, except for hanging onto the last straws of summer and trying not to think about the work that lies ahead.

Here are some random stories from snooping on the MLS today:

My old flipper friend just listed her house (she's been trying to get out from under it for years), and the neighbor listed another for 85K less on the same day. The asking price of the latter is the selling price in 2003.

This old Victorian gave me pause. I saw it and thought of another dark-windowed house in a children's novel (A Wrinkle in Time), and then I read the description. I wonder if other people's departed relatives are a selling point. I've seen many small lots with cemeteries in the countryside, of course, it's just that usually the people living in the house know who they are. Or rather were.

And in case you missed it over the weekend, a ranking member of the U.S. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises finally came up with a solution to our foreclosure problem: "Waters also wants to help by putting more pressure on the big banks to help with mortgages. 'If they don't come up with loan modifications and keep people in their homes that they've worked so hard for, we're going to tax them out of business.'"