Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 7/4-7/5, 2009

Happy Independence Day!

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/3/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/2/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/1/2009

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S&P/Case-Shiller® April Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index (graph here) for the month of April was released today.

"Data through April 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved. . . .

'The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. 'In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.'".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/30/2009

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Yo Ho Ho

Bailout of U.S. Banks Gives British Rum a $2.7 Billion Benefit.

Speaking of snafus:

"I say all this not to trash the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. It was a good idea. The problem has been in the execution.

While in October 2008 the county was shown as having 228 bank owned properties., the MLS currently lists only 29 for sale in Fauquier County.

In the time it took to roll the program out and talk the counties into participating and then have them put together packages, the worst of the crisis has passed".

Oops . . .

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/29/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 6/27-28, 2009

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What Not to Say

H/T Ace:

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/26/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/25/2009

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One More for Inflation

From a live interview on CNBC today:

"Buffett says he's not concerned at all about deflation, but does think inflation will be a problem in coming years".

Buffett at 9:14 on the video:"I don't worry about deflation at all . . . we won't see deflation in any significant amount in your lifetime".

Also,

"[W]e are monetizing the debt. We are using printed paper to pay our government."

Hm . . . I guess Buffett is one of Paul Krugman's "bullies":

"All of this raises the question: If inflation isn’t a real risk, why all the claims that it is?

Well, as you may have noticed, economists sometimes disagree. And big disagreements are especially likely in weird times like the present, when many of the normal rules no longer apply.

But it’s hard to escape the sense that the current inflation fear-mongering is partly political, coming largely from economists who had no problem with deficits caused by tax cuts but suddenly became fiscal scolds when the government started spending money to rescue the economy. And their goal seems to be to bully the Obama administration into abandoning those rescue efforts."

Pull up a chair . . .

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/24/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/23/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/22/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/21/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/20/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/19/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/18/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/17/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/16/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/15/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 6/13-6/14, 2009

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Current Housing Inventory

These inventory numbers were extrapolated from VirginiaMLS.com. The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represents the combined housing inventory (that's listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County.

Total inventory is at its lowest point since July-August, 2005. Here's a picture of Prince William County's inventory roller coaster.

(Here's the spreadsheet on a separate page.)

Update: It looks like you all were bright eyed and bushy tailed this morning and on top of these new numbers -- discussion has already started in today's Bits Bucket's comments.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/12/2009

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In the News

CR has the scoop on nationwide May foreclosure activity:

“May foreclosure activity was the third highest month on record, and marked the third straight month where the total number of properties with foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 — a first in the history of our report."

(Local Trustee Sales Notices here).

He also has a posting on mortgage rates and the 10 year yield:

"Using their tool, with the Ten Year yield at 3.99%, this suggests that 30 year mortgage rates will rise to 5.8% based on the historical relationship between the Ten Year yield and mortgage rates."

6% is where we were at the end of last summer.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/11/2009

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Northern Virginia May Housing Sales

Source: MRIS

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/10/2009

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May housing sales statistics will be out today.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/9/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/8/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 6/6-6/7, 2009

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The Best-Laid Plans

I have a cunning plan.

The theory:

"First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan."

The results so far:



(chart from Innocent Bystanders)

Calculated Risk: 'Note also that the unemployment rate has already exceeded the peak of the 'baseline scenario'."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/5/2009

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Flipperpalooza

19348 CLAIR MANOR DR
CULPEPER, VA 22701

List Price: $329,900
Prior Sale: $184,300 4/30/2009

This was listed for 231 days last year at $351,900. I'm sure any lookers are grateful they didn't buy it.

What a scary market.

Like this and this:

19325 SPRINGFIELD CIR
JEFFERSONTON, VA 22724
List Price: $168,482

19241 SPRINGFIELD CIR
JEFFERSONTON, VA 22724
List Price: $349,900

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/4/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/3/2009

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Pending Sales News

Calculated Risk: Pending Home Sales Index Increases

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Up for Three Months in a Row

"The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7 percent to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2 percent above April 2008 when it was 87.5".

These have yet to close -- hopefully the buyers locked in their mortgage rates.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/2/2009

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